Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

Shelga wrote: »

All of this started with him, and led directly to the other two, so I think yes, he’s the worst.

I dunno. I think he begat monsters even more monstrous than himself.

farmchoice

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Tommy Gorman's rather simpering read of the DUP and it's motives and sincerity has been wrong so many times over the last 3 years it's getting embarrassing.
He consistently tries to bail them out, give them the benefit of his doubt while never once highlighting anything sinister or mercenary in what they are doing.

There is no comparison to Tony Connelly's calm and reasonable and ultimately fair journalism.

no more then laura K and the bbc with the the tories, RTE taking a very benign approach to unionism is a long standing tradition. The DUP get a very easy ride off RTE compared to sinn fein.
I'm absolutely no shinner by the way, but it has always appeared that way to me.
on the DUP however i feel a lot of people fail to understand their motivation, posters here often wonder how they could pursue a policy that would be ruinous to the NI economy or might drive moderate Catholics back into the united Ireland camp.
They know well London will fcuk them over if it suits them so they will make hay while they can. they got May over a barrel and kept her there as long as they could, they use the erg types as much as they use them. with johnson they will use what little leverage they have left and when all else fails its back to roaring NEVER, NEVER, NEVER, then if they are ultimately sold out they can claim betrayal which is what their base expect to hear. the sectarian divide and their past destruction of the UUP means they cant really go wrong, their vote will always be much the same.

they feel that everything that has happened in the last 30 years has been a betrayal of their community by london so this will be no different.
now you and i may argue that their policy is totally counter productive and doomed to failure in the end, but the reality is the society they want is lost and gone forever so every policy is doomed to failure in the end.success for the dup would be reverting NI back to the state of play in 1970, a hard brexit would help with that, insane and all as that sounds.

Dytalus

lawred2 wrote: »

my wife is soon to be non EU - that sucks even more - it's going to cost us the bones of 2 grand for her Irish citizenship just to be the same as we are now...

Yeah, I've a close friend whose long term boyfriend is going to be in the same boat. She's taking him on one last tour of EU countries just before Brexit-day (assuming October 31st stays as Brexit day). Dunno if he's gonna get the 1k or so together for Irish citizenship.

The pair of them really like to travel too, and if they didn't live in Ireland with the CTA he'd be in some considerable trouble paperwork wise for staying here. Makes you feel awful for the people on the continent who don't have the CTA to shield them post-Brexit.

josip

lawred2 wrote: »

my wife is soon to be non EU - that sucks even more - it's going to cost us the bones of 2 grand for her Irish citizenship just to be the same as we are now...

Might be a slow morning but it took me a few reads to understand that; you've phrased it beautifully in the context of recent posts about non EU spouses.
My instinct after a lifetime of hearing about 'similar' cases was, "he's gotten that wrong, he meant to say it the other way. How can someone become non-EU?"

Mein gott, what do they think they're doing?

Professor Moriarty

Dytalus wrote: »

Yeah, I've a close friend whose long term boyfriend is going to be in the same boat. She's taking him on one last tour of EU countries just before Brexit-day (assuming October 31st stays as Brexit day). Dunno if he's gonna get the 1k or so together for Irish citizenship.

The pair of them really like to travel too, and if they didn't live in Ireland with the CTA he'd be in some considerable trouble paperwork wise for staying here. Makes you feel awful for the people on the continent who don't have the CTA to shield them post-Brexit.

Just an observation. If they are going on a tour of the EU surely they should put aside 1k for citizenship?

Hermy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just an observation. If they are going on a tour of the EU surely they should put aside 1k for citizenship?

Took the words out of my mouth.

Dytalus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just an observation. If they are going on a tour of the EU surely they should put aside 1k for citizenship?

One would think so, yes. I don't get it either. He makes very strange fiscal choices regularly.

ಠ_ಠ

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

Another ultimatum for Johnson. Why do the EU bother? What will they do if Johnson doesn't produce within 2 weeks?

Nothing, of course, because it wouldn't make any more sense to pull the plug in 2 weeks than it does now.

Wasn't today the end of the 30 day period that Johnson so joyously jumped on?

I would say that the ultimatum being given is Johnsons last chance to get his act together and present a realistic offer more than anything. If he thought he could hammer something at the last minute then this could be their way of saying if your just gonna talk shìte up to the last minute then we'll just assume no deal is the endgame this time.

Notice that more and more EU leaders are warning of a real risk of no deal and such so I wouldn't be suprised come 2 weeks that instead of there being negotiations the EU just puts out a "No Deal is happening" message along with all measures regarding trade etc as of Oct 31st. It would essentially be their way of hitting first against the Tories malignent incompence but leave enough time left if theres say parliment voting for a 2nd referendum or A50 withdrawal along with Boris getting the boot.

The balls in the UKs court its up to them to decide now.

Cork Boy 53

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Not exactly true. How Blair was referred to evolved over time: First he was Tony, then Tony Blair, then just Blair and finally Bliar.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

By the broadcasters? I can't recall Blair ever being described on a first name basis by the main channels. Maybe others can recall it in which case I'll stand corrected but this pally term of 'Boris' feels like a pretty unprecedented step.

I very much doubt that any main broadcaster referred to him as "Bliar" either. The tabloids (or one in particular) did admittedly.

Tell me how

Is Brexitcast scheduled for TV tonight?
I was just about to post that given the reaction to LK yesterday, the next one might be a while in coming.

Wouldn't be surprised if she was unable to make it.

CelticRambler

Infini wrote: »

I wouldn't be suprised come 2 weeks that instead of there being negotiations the EU just puts out a "No Deal is happening" message along with all measures regarding trade etc as of Oct 31st.

Further to Peregrinus' post above, I think this is how the EU summit will unfold:
Saturday morning "whatya got, Boris?"
Boris: "lots of oomph and determination ..."
EU27: "so nothing. Right, then - see yourself out, we've got EU stuff to talk about"
And that'll be end of the UK's involvement in that weekend.

At this stage, I wouldn't be surprised if they do stage-manage a empty lectern for the end-of-summit press conference.

Bannasidhe

josip wrote: »

Might be a slow morning but it took me a few reads to understand that; you've phrase it beautifully in the context of recent posts about non EU spouses.
My instinct after a lifetime of hearing about 'similar' cases was, "he's gotten that wrong, he meant to say it the other way. How can someone become non-EU?"

Mein gott, what do they think they're doing?

"About to become Non EU" is a beautifully stark and succinct way to put it.

I think an awful lot of Leavers - especially those demanding the UK 'just get on with it' - haven't really considered what it means to be in that Non EU category. Particularly the 'don't have any deals in place with the EU' Non EU category.

0ne obvious and simple question is will the old package holiday to Spain need a visa?

The official UK government webpage contains an awful lot of qualifying language so it looks like they don't know either...

Entering other countries

Visas: you should not need one for short trips
After Brexit, you will not need a visa for short trips, according to European Commission proposals. You could stay for up to 90 days in any 180-day period. You may need a visa or permit to stay for longer, or to work or study.

Check back for updates.

When the rules are confirmed, information about how to get a visa if you need one will be on each country’s travel advice page.

Travel to Ireland will not change after Brexit. You’ll also be able to work in Ireland in the same way as before.

https://www.gov.uk/visit-europe-brexit

It's one of those things I bet hasn't even occurred to a lot of people.
Thinking about your 2 weeks in Marbella are you? Have you sorted out your visa?

Camper vanning in France with the dogs? EU pet passport scheme no longer applies - have you sorted out different process that takes 4 months? What kind of driving licence do you have? Have you sorted out your insurance?

After Brexit you will not be able to use the existing pet passport scheme.
You’ll need an international driving permit (IDP) to drive in some countries. Check if you need one on the Post Office website.

If you’re taking your own vehicle, you’ll also need:
a ‘green card’ - allow 1 month to get this from your vehicle insurance company

Weekend city break in Amsterdam eh?
Have you more than 6 months left on your passport?
Can you demonstrate you have sufficient funds?
Don't phone home! Roaming charges apply.

You may need to renew your British passport earlier if you’re travelling after Brexit.
On the day you travel, you’ll need your passport to both:
have at least 6 months left
be less than 10 years old (even if it has 6 months or more left).
Border control: you may have to show your return ticket and money.
After Brexit, the guarantee of free mobile phone roaming throughout the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway will end.

Cheap skiing holiday in Andorra eh?
Hope you weren't thinking of travelling by coach...

Bus and coach services to non-EU countries, for example Switzerland or Andorra, may not be able to run.

Now - what about health insurance...Hope you don't have a pre-existing health condition...

You should always get appropriate travel insurance with healthcare cover before you go abroad.

After Brexit your European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) card may not be valid.

It’s particularly important you get travel insurance with the right cover if you have a pre-existing medical condition. This is because the EHIC scheme covers pre-existing conditions, while many travel insurance policies do not.

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

Is Brexitcast scheduled for TV tonight?
I was just about to post that given the reaction to LK yesterday, the next one might be a while in coming.

Wouldn't be surprised if she was unable to make it.

I am sure there will be a way to avoid talking about it, I mean the Luxembourg PM was rude to Johnson and then there is time to talk about cookies or some such. Not enough time for them to focus on her conduct. In any case, wouldn't expect her colleagues and I would think friends to call her out on her behaviour or her to admit to it in public either. She has the BBC backing, what does she care.


In other news, John Major made his submission to the Supreme Court on why they should find that it should be illegal,

John Major Written Case

I will post one tweet to an interesting argument he makes.

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1174609484695646208?s=20

Basically that is how a future PM who is very much anti-military proroguing parliament when the spending bill for the Armed Forces comes up. When funding runs out they just fizzle out. You would think the Tories would be more concerned about this with Corbyn a potential PM.

trellheim

OK my take

[ UK Supreme court judgment aside as its a wildcard ]

We will very shortly see stuff coming out to be road-tested backstop (de-dramatized or whatever you want to call it )

Steve Baker is still not tweeting ( well not much, certainly not at peak ERG levels) . Why do I harp on about this ? Because he is an acid test for the ERG - he rejected government so he could be a purist at the backbenches , if he went in he knew well he'd have to toe the line.

Without the ERG a deal cannot pass, and with them it has the barest possibility so if he stays quiet the fix is in.

Arlene's visit may have got some traction so I would say as she tells the DUP how to vote


Nothing else matters - its a numbers game for the whips to play ; there is no time at all for anything else.

As mentioned above you need to take a deal to EUCO it can't be done onsite so it all needs to spring more or less fully formed off the page


( I am assuming this is the argument - if it turns out that its nitpicking other WA stuff beyond NI-only backstop , or a time limit then all bets are off )

farmchoice

trellheim wrote: »

OK my take

[ UK Supreme court judgment aside as its a wildcard ]

We will very shortly see stuff coming out to be road-tested backstop (de-dramatized or whatever you want to call it )

Steve Baker is still not tweeting ( well not much, certainly not at peak ERG levels) . Why do I harp on about this ? Because he is an acid test for the ERG - he rejected government so he could be a purist at the backbenches , if he went in he knew well he'd have to toe the line.

Without the ERG a deal cannot pass, and with them it has the barest possibility so if he stays quiet the fix is in.

Arlene's visit may have got some traction so I would say as she tells the DUP how to vote


Nothing else matters - its a numbers game for the whips to play ; there is no time at all for anything else.

As mentioned above you need to take a deal to EUCO it can't be done onsite so it all needs to spring more or less fully formed off the page


( I am assuming this is the argument - if it turns out that its nitpicking other WA stuff beyond NI-only backstop , or a time limit then all bets are off )

i see your point but surely that ship has sailed, even with the erg and the dup the government are still short and that is if all the tories who he threw out come back to the fold ( bar the few who have joined other parties).
for Johnson to get anything threw he needs labour to abstain at the very least,the only possible way he will now get that is if he promises a referendum and i cant see that happening.

so its either with a bit of fancy footwork getting around the benn act and crashing out or more likely see himself forced in to looking for an extension and going to the country on the basis of i did everything i could with one hand tied behind my back (both hands?) now give me a mandate and i will crush the EU and labour, vote BP and you hand it to corbyn.

Zubeneschamali

farmchoice wrote: »

for Johnson to get anything threw he needs labour to abstain at the very least,the only possible way he will now get that is if he promises a referendum and i cant see that happening.

A referendum would require an extension, which Boris has repeatedly said he will not ask for.

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

OK my take

[ UK Supreme court judgment aside as its a wildcard ]

We will very shortly see stuff coming out to be road-tested backstop (de-dramatized or whatever you want to call it )

Steve Baker is still not tweeting ( well not much, certainly not at peak ERG levels) . Why do I harp on about this ? Because he is an acid test for the ERG - he rejected government so he could be a purist at the backbenches , if he went in he knew well he'd have to toe the line.

Without the ERG a deal cannot pass, and with them it has the barest possibility so if he stays quiet the fix is in.

Arlene's visit may have got some traction so I would say as she tells the DUP how to vote


Nothing else matters - its a numbers game for the whips to play ; there is no time at all for anything else.

As mentioned above you need to take a deal to EUCO it can't be done onsite so it all needs to spring more or less fully formed off the page


( I am assuming this is the argument - if it turns out that its nitpicking other WA stuff beyond NI-only backstop , or a time limit then all bets are off )

No deal can pass without Labour and/or the SNP and/or the LibDems

The ERG are an irrelevance

farmchoice

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A referendum would require an extension, which Boris has repeatedly said he will not ask for.

indeed he has, but as things stand today in the event of him failing to get agree a deal he has a legal obligation to ask for an extension. so he either gets around this legal obligation (and he is hinting he has a way to do this, mind you his form in getting one over benn grieve et al is not great to date) or he resigns, or he holds his nose and asks for it.



he could resign (arrange a vote of no confidence in himself) and allow corbyn into going for the extension and waiting for the election to come. i think this is quite possible it may even have the added benefit of corbyn actually sorting something out in the mean time.

Bannasidhe

farmchoice wrote: »

indeed he has, but as things stand today in the event of him failing to get agree a deal he has a legal obligation to ask for an extension. so he either gets around this legal obligation (and he is hinting he has a way to do this, mind you his form in getting one over benn grieve et al is not great to date) or he resigns, or he holds his nose and asks for it.



he could resign (arrange a vote of no confidence in himself) and allow corbyn into going for the extension and waiting for the election to come. i think this is quite possible it may even have the added benefit of corbyn actually sorting something out in the mean time.

He can't arrange a vote of no confidence while Parliament is prorogued.
Boris has schemed his way into a corner.

Igotadose

Dytalus wrote: »

Yeah, I've a close friend whose long term boyfriend is going to be in the same boat. She's taking him on one last tour of EU countries just before Brexit-day (assuming October 31st stays as Brexit day). Dunno if he's gonna get the 1k or so together for Irish citizenship.

€175 to apply which includes certified documents so solicitor fees for that. I paid €30. Multiple mailings, recommend signature required for initial submission. Will need friends signed up as references, passport photos for a few €. Months of waiting. Wouldn't be surprised if it didn't take a year. That's before approval and the final fee is €950. Then you can apply fir EU passport, that's extra

Sierra Oscar

If I’m getting this right, Arlene Foster is now saying that if any potential Brexit deal is put to a people’s vote in NI then it must receive a majority backing of both the nationalist and unionist population rather than just 50% +1 of the overall population.

How does that even work? As far as I am aware people don’t self identify as nationalist or unionist at the ballot box. It’s unworkable and she knows it. Dangerous rhetoric, especially if the DUP start trying to apply the same logic to any future potential border poll.

farmchoice

Bannasidhe wrote: »

He can't arrange a vote of no confidence while Parliament is prorogued.
Boris has schemed his way into a corner.

well he couldn't pull this stunt until after the the the 17/19 of October anyway so parliament will be back by then. but they will have very little time.

lawred2

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If I’m getting this right, Arlene Foster is saying that if any potential Brexit deal is put to a people’s vote in the UK then it must receive a majority backing of bother the nationalist and unionist population rather than just 50% +1 of the overall population.

How does that even work? As far as I am aware people don’t self identify as nationalist or unionist at the ballot box. Dangerous rhetoric, especially if the DUP start trying to apply the same logic to any future potential border poll.

That's for the loony bin that sort of suggestion.. I'm not sure that these DUP heads are all there to be honest..

What are the Polish (insert any nationality here) community supposed to identify as at the polling booth?

Sir Guy who smiles

jm08 wrote: »

I seem to recall reading that they didn't really think about it - it was basically a brief discussion and since they have always had problems with the EU (popish plot, liberal agenda etc) that they would support Brexit thinking that it would never happen!

I read somewhere the DUP Brexit strategy was devised by the MPs in London while everybody else was busy in Belfast.

Sierra Oscar

lawred2 wrote: »

That's for the loony bin that sort of suggestion.. I'm not sure that these DUP heads are all there to be honest..

What are the Polish (insert any nationality here) community supposed to identify as at the polling booth?

It’s ridiculous. They’re clearly just trying to make sure any notion of putting a deal to a referendum doesn’t take hold.

Winters

Brexit Secretary Stephen (Barkley) said: "A rigid approach now at this point is no way to progress a deal and the responsibility sits with both sides to find a solution.

"We are committed to carving out a landing zone and we stand ready to share relevant texts. But it must be in the spirit of negotiation with flexibility and with a negotiating partner that itself is willing to compromise."

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0919/1076866-brexit-talks/

it must be exasperating dealing with this lot.

lawred2

Winters wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0919/1076866-brexit-talks/

it must be exasperating dealing with this lot.

flexibility is just slang for giving us what we want... agreeing to our unworkable proposals..

these lads need to grow up - plain and simple

Zubeneschamali

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

How does that even work? As far as I am aware people don’t self identify as nationalist or unionist at the ballot box.

Obvious hack: Nationalist ladies identify as Nationalist and get a majority in that camp, but all the lads identify as Unionists for the day and skew the numbers.

Seth Brundle

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If I’m getting this right, Arlene Foster is now saying that if any potential Brexit deal is put to a people’s vote in NI then it must receive a majority backing of both the nationalist and unionist population rather than just 50% +1 of the overall population.

How does that even work? As far as I am aware people don’t self identify as nationalist or unionist at the ballot box. It’s unworkable and she knows it. Dangerous rhetoric, especially if the DUP start trying to apply the same logic to any future potential border poll.

So it would never pass as they would claim that it a unionist majority did not vote in favour and there's no way to prove it.

mrbrianj

Winters wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0919/1076866-brexit-talks/

it must be exasperating dealing with this lot.

Back to threatening Ireland with food shortages again! yet when anybody explains reality to them its Project Fair or EU bullies