Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Except the backstop doesnt have a democratic deficit. Its only temporary and conditional i.e. it kicks in if no other solution can be found, until a solution can be found. It also does no more than keep things as they are until the solution is found, and the majority of the people of Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.

Sure, i agree. But this is their argument, their POV.
So let us work with that and turn it against them.

prawnsambo

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Except the backstop doesnt have a democratic deficit. Its only temporary and conditional i.e. it kicks in if no other solution can be found, until a solution can be found. It also does no more than keep things as they are until the solution is found, and the majority of the people of Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.

I'm not endorsing this view, but the narrative attached to the 'undemocratic' backstop is that it places NI in an EU rule-taking scenario with no say on those rules.

The obvious flaw in this reasoning is that NI would otherwise be dragged out of the EU against their will. And of course it's always open to the UK to poll NI on the subject.

robinph

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not endorsing this view, but the narrative attached to the 'undemocratic' backstop is that it places NI in an EU rule-taking scenario with no say on those rules.

The obvious flaw in this reasoning is that NI would otherwise be dragged out of the EU against their will. And of course it's always open to the UK to poll NI on the subject.

Tagging "undemocratic" onto the backstop is a new thing they have only been doing for the last week. Not sure if that means they have research showing the term is persuading people to actually believe the claims regarding democracy when they apply it to something, or it is the last desperate shouts as they realise they are about to fail.

10000maniacs

Dytalus wrote: »

I never said they'd refuse to trade. Merely that they could take complaints to the WTO that Ireland and the EU are, through the NI/RoI border, trading along favourable terms in direct contradiction to the laws of the World Trade Organisation. The UK will have broken its international agreements. If the UK does not police what crosses that border, it is favourable trade with any nation that trades across that border.

Which is strictly against WTO rules. If you provide favourable trade arrangements with one nation (low tariffs, high quotas) and do not have a free trade agreement or customs union with that nation, you must provide the same arrangements to all WTO members.

If the UK leaves the border unchecked in Ireland, they are required to leave all the borders unchecked. If goods can be sold in Northern Ireland tariff free (and without a border, how can you tell what's come from the republic? Do you trust the packaging?) then they must be sold all across the UK, coming in from any nation, tariff free. If there is no quota checking (again, no border controls to check for this) for beef coming from Ireland then there can be no quota checking for beef coming from the US either. Why would the US make a trade deal in those circumstances? What does the UK have to offer the US when they're already getting uncontrolled access to UK markets?

EDIT: Seen some of your most recent posts. You're just a hateful anti-Irish type. Cool, well if I'd known that I wouldn't have tried to have a proper discussion with you. Of course you can ignore international trade law, knock yourself out.

Correct. Also, If somebody decides to take 50 sheep with Leptospirosis into the EU via the British border with the Irish Republic, what sort of technology will stop that happening if there are no checks?

kunst nugget

robinph wrote: »

Tagging "undemocratic" onto the backstop is a new thing they have only been doing for the last week. Not sure if that means they have research showing the term is persuading people to actually believe the claims regarding democracy when they apply it to something, or it is the last desperate shouts as they realise they are about to fail.

It's like using the term 'EU collaborators' for people who are on the remain side. It's ratcheting up the language to appeal to the most jingoistic impulses of the leave voter.

Leroy42

Corbyn did well the last time as it was the first time that many had actually paid attention to what he said rather than the media filter.

That and a huge amount of his increased performance was down to just how awful TM actually was. It is actually hard to recall just how pathetic a campaign she ran. She ran on Strong and Stable leadership and then wouldn't take part in the debate. SHe released a manifesto that she hadn't even informed her own senior ministers the details of and had to do a massive u-turn on dementia tax within a few days.

But now people have had a further 2 years of Corbyn having no position on anything. People have been calling out for a leader (well remainers anyway) and JC had run away. He is not the leader of Brexit so even they don't like him, even to the point that many will opt for No Deal rather than contemplate hi as PM.

So the circumstances are very different. LibDems and Greens are taking the youth and remain vote, ory and BP are taking the Brexiteers vote.

So apart for a baseless hope that Corbyn can somehow redo the magic trick, despite all the evidence of the last few years, most notably the recent by-elections where Labour have failed miserably not to mention the recent EU elections, there is no reason to think that somehow Corbyn can deliver anything close to the required vote to get Labour into government.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

Tagging "undemocratic" onto the backstop is a new thing they have only been doing for the last week. Not sure if that means they have research showing the term is persuading people to actually believe the claims regarding democracy when they apply it to something, or it is the last desperate shouts as they realise they are about to fail.

It's been going on for a bit longer than a week. I reckon it came to life not long after Johnson got selected as PM. First sign of it I can find in a quick search on twitter was July 28th. I suspect it's a Cummings tactic. Same use of 'undemocratic' as was used to describe the EU in the vote leave campaign.

peter kern

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Though I have good English friends, given the British government's rhetoric in recent weeks and this very insulting idea that Ireland should leave the EU to facilitate England, it's becoming increasingly difficult not to think badly of England at times.

to be fair all this are normal business sheaningans, its your choice how much you want to read into it, and iam not saying the current rethoric is beneficial but its the one that was to be accepted when you followed the tory selction ( so you could say you dislike the torries more but the rest of the country has not changed ) .
the fact remains that they haent got a clue in the uk what the majority realy wants ( or better what's realistic) 3 years later, and they cant understand why the eu manages to sing from the same sheet.

and i guess the thing is the more extrem boris gets the higher the chance is that the rest off the parliament is forced to find another way. so I dont see nothing negative here apart from the fact the torries really voted for this clown but that makes no change for the rest of the country so i guess you should not think bad aobut england. ( leave that to the tabloit papers ...)

Tell me how

robinph wrote: »

Tagging "undemocratic" onto the backstop is a new thing they have only been doing for the last week. Not sure if that means they have research showing the term is persuading people to actually believe the claims regarding democracy when they apply it to something, or it is the last desperate shouts as they realise they are about to fail.

That was patently Cummings's mantra. It started the day Boris became PM.

But if they got away with £350M/week on a Bus, this is small potatoes.

Zubeneschamali

swampgas wrote: »

Given past performance, it's conceivable that Johnson and his team will double down on the brinkmanship and just insist that the EU cut them some slack - and hope they blink first. Dangerous times.

If the City goes into meltdown, it will be nothing to do with the EU, it'll be an entirely domestic issue.

Laois_Man

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not exactly. Comparison with last poll shows a big jump for the Tories that's not refllected in a corresponding drop for the BP.

The Kantar survey of May 9-13 that put The Brexit Party at 10% was a big outlier from all other polls at that time

Comreg had them at 20%
Opinium 24%
Ipsos 16%
YouGov 18%

Pinch of salt!

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

The Kantar survey of May 9-13 that put The Brexit Party at 10% was a big outlier from all other polls at that time

Comreg had them at 20%
Opinium 24%
Ipsos 16%
YouGov 18%

Pinch of salt!

Well yes. But you made the statement in a post about that poll, and I was pointing out that the poll figures there didn't back that up. If you were referring to other polls, you should have quoted them.

Laois_Man

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well yes. But you made the statement in a post about that poll, and I was pointing out that the poll figures there didn't back that up. If you were referring to other polls, you should have quoted them.

I was clearly referring to more than one poll when using the plural!

MarinersBlues

Big Phil Hogan has had his spake!

European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan has said the EU will "not buckle" in the face of a no-deal Brexit.


....


Referring to the letter written by Mr Johnson to Donald Tusk this week, in which he said the backstop was anti- democratic, Mr Hogan said this was strange coming from "an un-elected prime minister" who had previously voted to support the backstop

....


In his closing remarks, Mr Hogan referenced Mr Johnson's desire to be seen as a modern day Winston Churchill.

He said the British government's only Churchillian legacy in the event of a no-deal Brexit will be "never have so few done so much damage to so many".

Ouch!

I really hope this is picked up in the British media.
I would love to see the reaction!

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

I was clearly referring to more than one poll when using the plural!

Yes. And that particular poll in its preceding iteration belied what you were saying. Which is what I was questioning.

swampgas

MarinersBlues wrote: »

Big Phil Hogan has had his spake!

Ouch!

I really hope this is picked up in the British media.
I would love to see the reaction!

The Guardian has reported it anyway:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/21/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-berlin-merkel-prepares-to-visit-berlin-as-minister-struggles-to-defend-his-collaborators-jibe-live-news

ambro25

serfboard wrote: »

This is why I thought that the referendum wouldn't be passed - that these people would unleash a proper "Project Fear" and frighten the voters into voting No. Of course, the original referendum didn't envisage no deal, and that, combined with complacency, combined with the other "Project Fear" (fear of immigrants) contributed to the vote passing.

Now that no-deal really is coming down the tracks, I too would expect the City of London people, plus the manufacturing sector (plenty of northerers there), plus the farmers, to galvanise to stop it.

Don't bet a cent on it.

I'd made the same calculation about the triggering of Article 50, on the basis that any player in the UK who's anyone had, by late 2016, already long had professional legal advice about notional Brexit outcomes if the Article 50 instrument was served by the UK. Yet not a pip, and Article 50 was duly triggered. Wasn't good PR to look like going against "the Will of the People".

By autumn 2017, the deadline I'd set ourselves to take a decision about what to do (business-wise and personally), still not a pip, and the current levels of nationalist testiculation in the British political class (and the associated, terminal snookering of the British political-cum-constitutional system) were already plainly in evidence, epitomised as they were by Johnson's "f*** business". Still wasn't a good PR look to be going against "the Will of the People".

Since then, there's not been much waiting-and-seeing by those same 'any player in the UK who's anyone': the vast majority of them have quietly contingency-planned, then enacted. Cue a cool £1 trillion of assets already exfiltrated to the EU27 from the City, along with a few thousands of asset management, trader, reinsurer <etc> jobs. To say nothing of the thousands of redundancies in SMEs the length and breadth of the UK, all ultimately attributable to supply line redesigns under way.

Based on the last 3 years, and the evidence of quiet but widespread preparations and early actions across UK plc and all those with a stake in it, there isn't going to be any galvanising effort by UK plc.

But even if you are right and there was one, given the fractured state of UK society currently, no galvanising effort of any scale is likely to achieve any useful result within the timescale left: you're looking at 2 months. The more strident that effort would be, the worse the fracturing would get IMHO.

J Mysterio

Hilary Benn's Brexit Select Committee report findings:


https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1160947796247232512

trellheim

ambro25 wrote: »

Don't bet a cent on it.

I'd made the same calculation about the triggering of Article 50, on the basis that any player in the UK who's anyone had, by late 2016, already long had professional legal advice about notional Brexit outcomes if the Article 50 instrument was served by the UK. Yet not a pip, and Article 50 was duly triggered. Wasn't good PR to look like going against "the Will of the People".

By autumn 2017, the deadline I'd set ourselves to take a decision about what to do (business-wise and personally), still not a pip, and the current levels of nationalist testiculation in the British political class (and the associated, terminal snookering of the British political-cum-constitutional system) were already plainly in evidence, epitomised as they were by Johnson's "f*** business". Still wasn't a good PR look to be going against "the Will of the People".

Since then, there's not been much waiting-and-seeing by those same 'any player in the UK who's anyone': the vast majority of them have quietly contingency-planned, then enacted. Cue a cool £1 trillion of assets already exfiltrated to the EU27 from the City, along with a few thousands of asset management, trader, reinsurer <etc> jobs. To say nothing of the thousands of redundancies in SMEs the length and breadth of the UK, all ultimately attributable to supply line redesigns under way.

Based on the last 3 years, and the evidence of quiet but widespread preparations and early actions across UK plc and all those with a stake in it, there isn't going to be any galvanising effort by UK plc.

But even if you are right and there was one, given the fractured state of UK society currently, no galvanising effort of any scale is likely to achieve any useful result within the timescale left: you're looking at 2 months. The more strident that effort would be, the worse the fracturing would get IMHO.

mmm the anchored nature of the supertanker .

Was only thinking this the other day . If you throw out all the alternative arrangements babble from "Friends of the ERG" I was left with

1. If your were serious about a deal you'd be making all the right noises
2. Noises would be
a) early recall of parliament
b) Prove ERG on side by making them vote on WA minus backstop or whatever
c) Force the DUP to go back into govt with SF

Now much of that is unlikely but you have to show you are ready to deal

prawnsambo

Macron basically saying "bring it on" to Johnson. Not entirely unexpected.

BonnieSituation

Delighted to see those statements from Phil and Macron.

That line in Hogan's was class!

fr336

MarinersBlues wrote: »

Big Phil Hogan has had his spake!



Ouch!

I really hope this is picked up in the British media.
I would love to see the reaction!

The tabloid rags won't pick up on it because it would affect their pathetically transparent propaganda. He's on the money, of course.

BluePlanet

I hope government here have some marketing plans in the wings, ready to pitch to all our EU partners with a view towards winning every.single.British agri contract out there in the wider EU.

prawnsambo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Delighted to see those statements from Phil and Macron.

That line in Hogan's was class!

What's fun about Macron's statement is that it's before they meet. So he's calling him on his hard brexit and Johnson has to turn up with his gun loaded with blanks.

Shelga

Listening to the press conference now.

Where does Merkel find the patience to tolerate this embarrassing clown Johnson.

TCDStudent1

Shelga wrote: »

Listening to the press conference now.

Where does Merkel find the patience to tolerate this embarrassing clown Johnson.

Where can you listen to it?

KildareP

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Where can you listen to it?

Sky News live on youtube are carrying it live

omerin

Anyone count the number of times Boris has taken his pen out of his jacket and back again? A waffler so far out if his depth it's scary

trellheim

Thanks for posting the Select report.

That led me to this, which is the last HoC Committee debate on Exiting the EU

http://data.parliament.uk/WrittenEvidence/CommitteeEvidence.svc/EvidenceDocument/Exiting%20the%20European%20Union/The%20progress%20of%20the%20UK%E2%80%99s%20negotiations%20on%20EU%20withdrawal/Oral/103726.html

It's a long read but very worthwhile as it gives a fairly honest position of where they were a few weeks ago, and the negotiating positions and different party positions is worthwhile.

ISOP

omerin wrote: »

Anyone count the number of times Boris has taken his pen out of his jacket and back again? A waffler so far out if his depth it's scary

Did he manage to comb his hair today?