Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Merkel being typically polite while saying the backstop has to stay until alternative arrangements are available.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

Corbyn did well the last time as it was the first time that many had actually paid attention to what he said rather than the media filter.

That and a huge amount of his increased performance was down to just how awful TM actually was. It is actually hard to recall just how pathetic a campaign she ran. She ran on Strong and Stable leadership and then wouldn't take part in the debate. SHe released a manifesto that she hadn't even informed her own senior ministers the details of and had to do a massive u-turn on dementia tax within a few days.

But now people have had a further 2 years of Corbyn having no position on anything. People have been calling out for a leader (well remainers anyway) and JC had run away. He is not the leader of Brexit so even they don't like him, even to the point that many will opt for No Deal rather than contemplate hi as PM.

So the circumstances are very different. LibDems and Greens are taking the youth and remain vote, ory and BP are taking the Brexiteers vote.

So apart for a baseless hope that Corbyn can somehow redo the magic trick, despite all the evidence of the last few years, most notably the recent by-elections where Labour have failed miserably not to mention the recent EU elections, there is no reason to think that somehow Corbyn can deliver anything close to the required vote to get Labour into government.

I'd agree with most of that. Its hard to envisage labour not losing seats but at same time i wouldnt underestimate the twists and turns you might get in these volatile political times. One factor the polls might be missing is that this GE will almost certainly be held during university term time and that will definitely boost the turnout of more likely left leaning voters. Thing is, as you rightly point out, that will go as much to Greens as to labour, and possibly Lib Dems too.

Definitely a smart move the way they are courting the Scottish Nationalists with the suggested support of a second indy ref. Wouldnt surprise me to see the SNP bring in 40+ seats and if greens could manage around 15 which seems reasonable, you could envisage a potential Labour led coalition if they maintained their current performance. Still a big enough ask to be fair.

ilovesmybrick

On the train home from work today I struck up a conversation with a British man who has been working with an EU organisation for the past fifteen years. Apparently back in May, when the deal seemed to be on the table a guarantee was put in place securing their contracts for a year after the exit, to ensure they had time to prepare.

It turns out that with the recent changes and the push for no deal none of the British employees know if they have jobs on November 1st, because if no deal happens the organisational rules mean their contracts terminate immediately because non EU citizens cannot serve in these roles. This also means that they don't know if they can live in the countries they've called home for several years as the visa issues then arise.

It is utterly unconscionable what the current Tory government is doing to these people. There must be thousands of UK citizens in EU organisations who are left with the very real prospect of being dismissed from their jobs in a few weeks and forced to move back to the UK due to the utter negligence of the Tories and no fault of their own. And it is an awful loss of talent and expertise from EU institutions.

That being said, he did also point out that the UK will survive but Ireland won't as we need to bring all our goods through them, so that tempered my sympathy somewhat.

Laois_Man

The tone of questions from the British press to Merkel was interesting - although not surprising. After more than 3 years of their nonsense, they still think whatever Germany/Merkel says goes!

brickster69

swampgas wrote: »

The Guardian has reported it anyway:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/21/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-berlin-merkel-prepares-to-visit-berlin-as-minister-struggles-to-defend-his-collaborators-jibe-live-news

What was he talking about " an un-elected prime minister ". Who elected him ot Varadkar. Even the EU President just scraped in after being elected by heads of government and was the only name on the ballot sheet.

Kermit.de.frog

brickster69 wrote: »

What was he talking about " an un-elected prime minister ". Who elected him ot Varadkar. Even the EU President just scraped in after being elected by heads of government and was the only name on the ballot sheet.

The EU does not have a president.

I think you mean the president of European Council.

MadYaker

Does anyone know why Labour Party MPs or members haven’t got rid of Corbyn? Literally anyone would be an improvement.

Professor Moriarty

MadYaker wrote: »

Does anyone know why Labour Party MPs or members haven’t got rid of Corbyn? Literally anyone would be an improvement.

Momentum.

brickster69

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The EU does not have a president.

I think you mean the president of European Council.

Yeah that one, the one who won a one horse race just.

Joe_ Public

MadYaker wrote: »

Does anyone know why Labour Party MPs or members haven’t got rid of Corbyn? Literally anyone would be an improvement.

They have tried - twice. And failed both times.

brickster69

Laois_Man wrote: »

The tone of questions from the British press to Merkel was interesting - although not surprising. After more than 3 years of their nonsense, they still think whatever Germany/Merkel says goes!

She was clearly asked if the Eu would keep the border open and refused to answer. Johnson firmly said they will not place checks on the border.

They cannot even say that Ireland will be forced to carry out checks at the border.

marno21

brickster69 wrote: »

She was clearly asked if the Eu would keep the border open and refused to answer. Johnson firmly said they will not place checks on the border.

They cannot even say that Ireland will be forced to carry out checks at the border.

Johnson says out of one side of his mouth there will be no checks on the border and out of the other side that they are ending freedom of movement the day after Brexit.

How can you end freedom of movement while maintaining an open land border with the EU with over 200 crossings?

Strazdas

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

On the train home from work today I struck up a conversation with a British man who has been working with an EU organisation for the past fifteen years. Apparently back in May, when the deal seemed to be on the table a guarantee was put in place securing their contracts for a year after the exit, to ensure they had time to prepare.

It turns out that with the recent changes and the push for no deal none of the British employees know if they have jobs on November 1st, because if no deal happens the organisational rules mean their contracts terminate immediately because non EU citizens cannot serve in these roles. This also means that they don't know if they can live in the countries they've called home for several years as the visa issues then arise.

It is utterly unconscionable what the current Tory government is doing to these people. There must be thousands of UK citizens in EU organisations who are left with the very real prospect of being dismissed from their jobs in a few weeks and forced to move back to the UK due to the utter negligence of the Tories and no fault of their own. And it is an awful loss of talent and expertise from EU institutions.

That being said, he did also point out that the UK will survive but Ireland won't as we need to bring all our goods through them, so that tempered my sympathy somewhat.

Wrong....Ireland only uses British ports because of speed and convenience. If the worst comes to the worst, Ireland can simply bypass GB and ship straight to the continent and back (it means delays but that's all).

upupup

marno21 wrote: »

Johnson says out of one side of his mouth there will be no checks on the border and out of the other side that they are ending freedom of movement the day after Brexit.

How can you end freedom of movement while maintaining an open land border with the EU with over 200 crossings?

It can easily be done with with a magical "Alternative Arrangement"

ilovesmybrick

Strazdas wrote:

Wrong....Ireland only uses British ports because of speed and convenience. If the worst comes to the worst, Ireland can simply bypass GB and ship straight to the continent and back (it means delays but that's all).

Oh I know that, but this was the perspective he casually threw out. The delusion about Ireland being starved out of it runs strong through the British media. I'm not saying it won't cause problems, but his idea was that we couldn't last six months without the land bridge.

Laois_Man

brickster69 wrote: »

Yeah that one, the one who won a one horse race just.

Von Der Leyen was not even one of the front runners for the role - She was 4th choice, nominated in proceedings that went 2 days over schedule! Manfred Weber was the front runner and Frans Timmermans and Margrethe Vestager were also ahead of her.

quokula

Leroy42 wrote: »

But now people have had a further 2 years of Corbyn having no position on anything. People have been calling out for a leader (well remainers anyway) and JC had run away. He is not the leader of Brexit so even they don't like him, even to the point that many will opt for No Deal rather than contemplate hi as PM.

And this sentence is why he'll do significantly better once the media are forced to cover his policies, just as he did last time. Because if, as I do, you actually read or watched some of his speeches or statements, rather than the occasional synopsis a hostile media chooses to publicise, you'd know it is categorically untrue to say that "he has no position on anything".

It's true that he's not sufficiently remain-y for some remainers, as he's been doing his best not to completely alienate the majority of the country and the majority of Labour constituencies who voted to leave, but he has continually and consistently campaigned and voted against any kind of hard Brexit or no deal scenario.

Labour have for some time had a pretty clear Brexit policy that involves staying in the customs union and closely aligned to the single market (a somewhat vague term but a workable position for negotiation with the EU) - this is totally compatible with approving the withdrawal agreement with additional commitments in the political declaration. They have no red lines regarding the ECJ or freedom of movement like the Tories. They have also voted in favour of a second referendum in parliamentary amendments (something Ken Clarke hasn't done, yet he's seen as some kind of Remain hero)

In addition to that, in response to Boris Johnson's position and the increased dangers of Brexit he's now further moved to 100% committing to a second referendum with remain on the ballot, most likely against a Labour-negotiated customs union deal. This is the absolute best case scenario possible for remainers, but as you said, many still seem to be leaning towards accepting no deal just to spite the socialists. I suspect in the reality of a general election, minds might get focussed.

fash

Was just thinking about this "undemocratic backstop" argument - I know people have suggested "let's have an NI referendum on it" - but frankly I wouldn't trust the Tories or DUP not to sabotage the running of such. Instead I would suggest a cross community vote is a better way of ensuring this- say perhaps after 5 years a decision to keep the backstop or not. This does require the NI assembly to be up and running of course - and might incentivise the DUP to do so. Now that would be the pinnacle (and a great reinforcement) of NI democracy.

Mr.Nice Guy

The UK media have seized on the 30 days comment from Merkel as being of significance.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1164217425048608768

https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1164214977777082368

From The Guardian:

At one point she talked about how it might be possible to find a solution within the next 30 days and Johnson - whose entire professional training revolved around quickly spotting a headline buried in Eurobabble - immediately flagged this up to journalists, implying this was his “win” from the press conference: “Merkel gives UK 30 days to solve Brexit.”

So now it's being spun that there is effectively a renegotiation taking place over the next 30 days. I just took Merkel's comment to be a case of 'we need to hear ideas pronto' rather than the way the UK media are twisting it.

The only way I can see a credible game-changer emerging in 30 days would be if Johson shifts towards the NI-only backstop. Hard to see him doing that as the DUP would immediately bring down his government.

Laois_Man

Simon Coveney's full 23 minute interview with Miriam O'Callaghan this morning where he clearly wished he could absolutely burst her a few times!

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1164101137492062208

brickster69

At least Merkel can see reality so that is a step forward at least. She said: "Britain is leaving the European Union. We have said repeatedly from the German perspective that we very much regret this but it is fact."

BluePlanet

Merkel - Solution to Irish 'backstop' possible in 30 days
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-merkel/merkel-solution-to-irish-backstop-possible-in-30-days-idUKKCN1VB23A?rpc=401&

/rolleyes

Ah well let's see if BoJo comes up with anything other than bluster, trolling and 'trust us'.

fash

brickster69 wrote: »

She was clearly asked if the Eu would keep the border open and refused to answer. Johnson firmly said they will not place checks on the border.

They cannot even say that Ireland will be forced to carry out checks at the border.

I would suggest that you've been listening to UK politicians too long and are unused to non-lying politicians.

Gwanoman

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

On the train home from work today I struck up a conversation with a British man who has been working with an EU organisation for the past fifteen years. Apparently back in May, when the deal seemed to be on the table a guarantee was put in place securing their contracts for a year after the exit, to ensure they had time to prepare.

It turns out that with the recent changes and the push for no deal none of the British employees know if they have jobs on November 1st, because if no deal happens the organisational rules mean their contracts terminate immediately because non EU citizens cannot serve in these roles. This also means that they don't know if they can live in the countries they've called home for several years as the visa issues then arise.

It is utterly unconscionable what the current Tory government is doing to these people. There must be thousands of UK citizens in EU organisations who are left with the very real prospect of being dismissed from their jobs in a few weeks and forced to move back to the UK due to the utter negligence of the Tories and no fault of their own. And it is an awful loss of talent and expertise from EU institutions.

That being said, he did also point out that the UK will survive but Ireland won't as we need to bring all our goods through them, so that tempered my sympathy somewhat.

I am in this exact situation.. We almost lost our jobs last year and were on 6 weeks notice at one stage..

I'm one of the few people from NI seconded to the EU..

Calina

brickster69 wrote: »

At least Merkel can see reality so that is a step forward at least. She said: "Britain is leaving the European Union. We have said repeatedly from the German perspective that we very much regret this but it is fact."

This has been the status quo for several years. Not new and not a step forward.

bobmalooka

As far as I can tell it’s very much a case of show us what you’ve got Boris in a polite manner from Merkel.

Some Brexity commentators are loving the 30 day comment, watching it being spun immediately in real time is something else.

See this take from the telegraphs chief political correspondent:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1164214171589840896?s=21

Now contrast that with the preamble to the 30 day comment:

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1164225222423273474?s=21

He does a little fist bump when he hears the translation, he knows his boys have their headline. The actual substance and context dont matter once he gets the right headline and he knows it instantly. It’s incredible

Maybe it’s a good thing. Maybe it will provide the space which allows BJ to reshape the political declaration & reword the backstop and claim the victory he needs to claim in order to sell it.
I don’t think anything Merkel said there contradicts the substance of the WA.

Or maybe it lets him **** about for another 30 days pressure free because the papers thinks the EU are ready to do what they can’t do.

Flex

I watched the conference on BBC when they were speaking and my take on it was the Chancellor Merkel was very polite and tactful in the face of Johnson was full on rhetoric. She unambiguously reiterated the withdrawal agreement wont be reopened and went further when asked by a British journalist saying it didnt make sense asking her as the EU Commission is negotiating on behalf of the EU27, not Germany, however UK government and media still have or push this idea that shes the leader of the EU. Plus Macron making it clear the WA wont be reopened was expected, but still good to hear.

Im bewildered at the UK media and commentators who seem to be saying this is an unofficial reopening of the WA and the 30 days is the new timetable.. What she said was

If one is able to solve this conundrum, if one finds this solution, we said we would probably find it in the next two years to come but we can also maybe find it in the next 30 days to come. Then we are one step further in the right direction and we have to obviously put our all into this.

Clearly there and in the context of everything she said it meant that we (the EU) are open to hearing and reviewing suggestions for alternative arrangements, but that

• the UK has to come up with them,
• they have to be realistic and
• the backstop stays unless and until they are brought forward.

It really is 1984 / inter-war years stuff. Somewhat concerning given its a much larger neighbour on our doorstep with a checkered history whose government and media are engaging in this behaviour, but at the same time I find it genuinely fascinating to see the rise of such a regime by using these means and how so much of a population can be brainwashed as we are seeing in the UK

ilovesmybrick

Gwanoman wrote:

I am in this exact situation.. We almost lost our jobs last year and were on 6 weeks notice at one stage..

Gwanoman wrote:

I'm one of the few people from NI seconded to the EU..

I really hope it works out for you. I'm in an international organisation (non-EU), and fortunately a lot of our UK employees hadthe ability to get Irish passports, but there's a handful that don't have any option but to be third country nationals which really impacts upon their job.

jimmycrackcorm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Merkel - Solution to Irish 'backstop' possible in 30 days
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-merkel/merkel-solution-to-irish-backstop-possible-in-30-days-idUKKCN1VB23A?rpc=401&

/rolleyes

Ah well let's see if BoJo comes up with anything other than bluster, trolling and 'trust us'.

BBC and Sky news also giving prominence.
I just think that Merkel is trolling BJ knowing playing to his Can Do style.

It's bizarre that the UK couldn't come up with a solution in the years, yet now expect to in 30 days.

The 30 days or 2 years is interesting as obviously the latter is based on a transition period. But there is nothing really new in this, the backstop was always only every about finding a solution in that time period.

So I'm going with Merkel trolling about the 30 days...

bobmalooka

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

BBC and Sky news also giving prominence.
I just think that Merkel is trolling BJ knowing playing to his Can Do style.

It's bizarre that the UK couldn't come up with a solution in the years, yet now expect to in 30 days.

The 30 days or 2 years is interesting as obviously the latter is based on a transition period. But there is nothing really new in this, the backstop was always only every about finding a solution in that time period.

So I'm going with Merkel trolling about the 30 days...

Yes, completely misrepresented.

The 30 days was almost a pisstake. Basically if you want the backstop removed you’ve left it tight buddy.

The comments under the misleading articles are what you’d expect. EU blinking, car manufacturers have told her what’s what etc.

It’s funny but simultaneously frightening to see how willfully relating the message in this way impacting the narrative and misguiding the public on what’s achievable.

I’d suspect Macron won’t leave as much room for interpretation tomorrow.