Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

Lackadaisical

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

Considering the utter nonsense that's being reported in some UK papers, including fact-free speculation about Irish politics and bonkers fantasies about how Varadkar's being torpedoed by Young Fine Gael, I don't think it's possible to avoid that kind of misreporting.

She's issued a fairly strong clarification, but it will be ignored by the UK media who don't want to know.

The most likely outcome is the various European national and European institutional leaders will just stop talking to the UK press entirely as they're being grossly misquoted.

We seem to be in an era of just throw misinformation out there and because nobody will challenge it properly and it sounds vaguely like what people might want to hear, it just sticks.

Facts are so last century!

am i bovvered

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

Oh come on !
The truth is the erratic UK press and government are desperate to create any story where one clearly does not ‘lie’
If it hadn’t been this then they would have clung into another phrase.
Macron was much tougher today and the Telegraph are still reporting it as a backdown by the EU.

bobmalooka

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

True, but it’s merely rearranging the timing of the finger pointing.
Instead of flat no now and uk press going into overdrive of big bold EU headlines they’ll have to wait for BJ to resubmit barcodes and trusted traders in 30 days before writing the same thing.

Importantly, anybody with an actual influence on proceedings can see the substance has not changed

Professor Moriarty

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

She could have said: "The WA is not up for re-negotiation and the backstop is not up for re-negotiation" But she didn't say that.

Bit cynical

fash wrote: »

I think it could only be done as part of the political declaration - and then only to approx 3 years after the end of the transition period - and perhaps cross community vote only - let the communities decide the due weighting etc.

Who would your idea be presented to? Would it be for Boris Johnson to read and then propose as a change to the WA? Would the EU suggest it?

AlmightyCushion

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1164506819617837057?s=20

Uhm what? Telegraph really has gone downhill.

Merkel: ''Nothing changed!''
Macron: ''No new deal and the backstop is a redline we won't cross, you won't get a deal in 30 days''
Telegraph: ''VICTORY FOR BORIS AS MACRON SAYS WA CAN BE REPOPENED!!!!!''

The comments on that article are crazy. I particularly like this one though.

Macron - I suspect - has been told to wind his neck in by Germany. Merkel is desperate for a deal- the German Economy is tanking.

fash

prawnsambo wrote: »

And what about the people on this side of the border? Do they not get to have a say in this? The impact of brexit is an equal opportunities impact. All cross border activity is affected. On both sides.

Good point- no good answer to that except to hope that Assembly Representatives of border communities would represent their cross border neighbours also.

Where I am coming from is a concern that the UK hidden solution to the "undemocratic" backstop is to bounce Ireland into accepting an NI referendum which is somehow manipulated by Boris & Arlene. I expect there is less scope for manipulation of a cross community vote.

listermint

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

But she has said nothing different than she has ever said in the last 2 years.

The pretence that she said or altered course is just that. And anyone commenting otherwise doesnt get that or chooses not to get it.

Basically looking for blame where we all know where it lies, a small island off the north coast of Europe East of Ireland

BluePlanet

The majority of MLA's in NI have written to Donald Tusk in support of the Back Stop.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/majority-of-northern-irelands-mlas-sign-letter-to-donald-tusk-supporting-brexit-backstop-38426562.html

An Claidheamh

am i bovvered wrote: »

Oh come on !
The truth is the erratic UK press and government are desperate to create any story where one clearly does not ‘lie’
If it hadn’t been this then they would have clung into another phrase.
Macron was much tougher today and the Telegraph are still reporting it as a backdown by the EU.

You beat met to it.

Amazing how now, you cannot say anything for fear of Britain acting like the loud kid in class who everyone has to tip toe around because their parents are a bit rough

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

Who would your idea be presented to? Would it be for Boris Johnson to read and then propose as a change to the WA? Would the EU suggest it?

My actual thinking process is that - unless Boris is actually planning on crashing out and assuming parliament doesn't take over - his last play would be to offer to "solve" the " undemocratic" backstop by putting it to the people in NI - without getting into the details of that - in an attempt to bounce Ireland into agreeing to that - while planning on sabotaging the referendum in some manner.
If Ireland's messaging plays along on the "undemocratic" backstop - "the majority in NI want a backstop- why not let them decide" etc, then it becomes difficult for Ireland to not accept the bounce.
Hence what should Ireland's actual response to such a proposal be - and hence how should Ireland construct its messaging in the meantime - e.g. "principle of consent from both communities" etc.

BluePlanet

Lackadaisical wrote: »

She's issued a fairly strong clarification, but it will be ignored by the UK media who don't want to know.

Where at?

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Here it is with subtitles in place of dubbing.

Now we just have to wait and see what ol' Boris comes up with in 30 days :pac:

Does anybody else find Johnsons clenched fist and dragging gestures excruciatingly annoying?

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

Good point- no good answer to that except to hope that Assembly Representatives of border communities would represent their cross border neighbours also.

Where I am coming from is a concern that the UK hidden solution to the "undemocratic" backstop is to bounce Ireland into accepting an NI referendum which is somehow manipulated by Boris & Arlene. I expect there is less scope for manipulation of a cross community vote.

The 'undemocratic' stuff is just Cummingspeak for "we can't find anything else to say against it". They even defined it as NI being unable to have a say in rules they have to work to. Omitting completely that these rules are in place now but somehow won't be undemocratic until the UK leave and the backstop kicks in. And even more paradoxically ignoring the fact that NI voted to remain in the EU, but were forced 'democratically' to leave because England and Wales did.

But we know full well that if the DUP weren't propping up the government, the NI only backstop would have been signed off on months ago and they'd be working out which bits of the UK to sell to the USA first.

Larbre34

10000maniacs wrote: »

Does anybody else find Johnsons clenched fist and dragging gestures excruciatingly annoying?

Its difficult to tell when the whole experience of him, every time, is excruciatingly annoying.

fash

BluePlanet wrote: »

The majority of MLA's in NI have written to Donald Tusk in support of the Back Stop.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/majority-of-northern-irelands-mlas-sign-letter-to-donald-tusk-supporting-brexit-backstop-38426562.html

That's certainly unhelpful to the "undemocratic" talking point!

An Claidheamh

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Considering the utter nonsense that's being reported in some UK papers, including fact-free speculation about Irish politics and bonkers fantasies about how Varadkar's being torpedoed by Young Fine Gael, I don't think it's possible to avoid that kind of misreporting.

What was that about Blueshirt Youth?

Wouldn't be surprised if they're in league with the Tory right, distraught at the Brits not liking them, from the (thankfully) few I've known 😂

Infini

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

It's not her fault the UK media and government are living in a parallell universe of unicorns and rainbow and neither is it her fault theyre so desperate to twist the narrative to suit their delusions.

The simple truth is they either accept this or crash and burn in the UK's Greatest Crowning moment of Idiocy in modern time's and it will be all because they couldnt be realistic.

Quin_Dub

An Claidheamh wrote: »

What was that about Blueshirt Youth?

Wouldn't be surprised if they're in league with the Tory right, distraught at the Brits not liking them, from the (thankfully) few I've known ��

##Mod Note##

Less of the nicknames please.

LuckyLloyd

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

Narratives don’t matter.
Cummings and the right wing apparatus can’t spin to victory here.

Varta

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

As I said the other day, the EU and Ireland are now engaged in a war with the UK. It is a war of words initiated by the UK. It was to be expected once Cummings came to power.

BluePlanet

Infini wrote: »

It's not her fault the UK media and government are living in a parallell universe of unicorns and rainbow and neither is it her fault theyre so desperate to twist the narrative to suit their delusions.

The simple truth is they either accept this or crash and burn in the UK's Greatest Crowning moment of Idiocy in modern time's and it will be all because they couldnt be realistic.

Its not her fault the UK media and government are thus, that part is true.
However it is her responsibility to be cognizant of that reality and tailor her public statements to provide maximum clarity and minimize 'reading between the lines'.

AdamD

10000maniacs wrote: »

Does anybody else find Johnsons clenched fist and dragging gestures excruciatingly annoying?

Overly trained, unnatural, public speaking mannerisms are awful.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

She could have said: "The WA is not up for re-negotiation and the backstop is not up for re-negotiation" But she didn't say that.

Remember Salzburg? The EU were very direct to TM, left little room for misunderstanding and what happened?

TM had a hissy fit and the entire media says the EU were bullying the UK.

So it really doesn't matter what the EU say or do. The reality is that the UK faces a choice, a choice of it's own making but a choice it doesn't and seemingly can't make.

So everything must be framed in a way to distract from that reality.

J Mysterio

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1164506819617837057?s=20

Uhm what? Telegraph really has gone downhill.

Merkel: ''Nothing changed!''
Macron: ''No new deal and the backstop is a redline we won't cross, you won't get a deal in 30 days''
Telegraph: ''VICTORY FOR BORIS AS MACRON SAYS WA CAN BE REPOPENED!!!!!''

It is unbelievable that this is the headline.
That is a straight up lie.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

Question to the floor: if it were accepted that it would be for (roughly) the people of NI to decide on sufficiently ok-ish alternative arrangements or alignment with the EU, what would the best way to allow NI to decide?

Your starting premise is flawed! Before the people of NI could be asked to vote on any new arrangement, such an arrangement would have to be fully approved by the EU. A "sufficiently ok-ish alternative" wouldn't be a good enough proposal with which to move forward.

So one way or another, we'd end up back where we were in Dec 2017: with a perfectly good, workable solution that (depending on the colour of your flag) put an intolerable distance between London and Belfast, or continued to blur the lines between NI and the Republic.

fash wrote: »

Where I am coming from is a concern that the UK hidden solution to the "undemocratic" backstop is to bounce Ireland into accepting an NI referendum which is somehow manipulated by Boris & Arlene. I expect there is less scope for manipulation of a cross community vote.

There's no reason for the Republic to be bounced into accepting a NI referendum, because the first step in the process would be to get Stormont up and running again, and to have the people's democratically elected representatives make a decision on their behalf.

Besides, if there was going to be any kind of manipulation of the result by those in power in Westminster, it would almost certainly be of a kind to ensure that Britain saved £350m a week in the future.

Tell me how

BluePlanet wrote: »

The reality here, is that Merkel's off the cuff waffling has created this new narrative.
For someone as experienced as she, and tuned-in to the sensitive nature of Brexit and public statements, it's significant gaffe on her part.

I doubt Merkel has done anything off the cuff since she was a teenager, if even then. She's very close to being the most adept politician I have observed in the 25 years I have been paying close attention to politics.

It is being interpreted that she said it was possible, but Macron's statements are also being interpreted in flexible ways.

LEt Boris and the papers say whatever they want. Given their inaction during this latest extension in anything Brexit related until this week, they will likely offer nothing more and then turn up on the 31st of October and ask the EU; 'So, have you fixed it'.

Seth Brundle

Not sure if this is a last chance to clutch at straws or if it might work but I look forward to the outcomes...

Three separate legal challenges have been lodged in Belfast against a potential no-deal Brexit.
The High Court proceedings centre on claims that any departure from the European Union without a withdrawal agreement would breach the Belfast Agreement.

Separate grounds of challenge aimed at preventing Mr Johnson suspending parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit will now be dealt with in another case taken in Scotland by a cross-party group of MPs and peers.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/three-legal-challenges-lodged-in-belfast-over-no-deal-brexit-1.3994050

Seth Brundle

Incidentally, according to some media outlets, the markets have reacted somewhat favourably at Merkel's comment about the 30 days causing Sterling to improve:
£1 = €1.10 (£0.91= €1.00)

https://www.google.com/search?q=sterling+to+euro&rlz=1C1GGRV_enIE757IE757&oq=sterling+to+euro&aqs=chrome..69i64j0l4j5.1632j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8