Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Tweet from Johnson this afternoon:

Today I met President Macron in Paris. Let’s get Brexit done, sensibly and pragmatically and in the interests of both sides. Let’s get on with deepening and intensifying the friendship and the partnership between our nations.

Hahaha!

prawnsambo

At least the French have a sense of humour about Johnson's foot rest.

Scandal: Quick! Add the renovation of the Elysée Palace to the brexit bill.

Limpy

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Incidentally, according to some media outlets, the markets have reacted somewhat favourably at Merkel's comment about the 30 days causing Sterling to improve:
£1 = €1.10 (£0.91= €1.00)

https://www.google.com/search?q=sterling+to+euro&rlz=1C1GGRV_enIE757IE757&oq=sterling+to+euro&aqs=chrome..69i64j0l4j5.1632j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

If the pound stays nice and cosy around that price it'll make life easier getting brexit through.

Seth Brundle

Limpy wrote: »

If the pound stays nice and cosy around that price it'll make life easier getting brexit through.

I reckon it will tumble once his 30 days are up!

BluePlanet

Tell me how wrote: »

I doubt Merkel has done anything off the cuff since she was a teenager, if even then. She's very close to being the most adept politician I have observed in the 25 years I have been paying close attention to politics.

It is being interpreted that she said it was possible, but Macron's statements are also being interpreted in flexible ways.

LEt Boris and the papers say whatever they want. Given their inaction during this latest extension in anything Brexit related until this week, they will likely offer nothing more and then turn up on the 31st of October and ask the EU; 'So, have you fixed it'.

imo Macron appeared to be attempting to provide political cover for her gaffe.

farmchoice

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I reckon it will tumble once his 30 days are up!

if and when the day comes that no deal is going to happen the pound will collapse, 10-15% maybe more, maybe way more, there will also be a an accompanying stock market fall and probably a fair bit of contagion around the world, the beginning of the chaos.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I reckon it will tumble once his 30 days are up!

It is 25% off the price 4 years ago. (70p vs 91p). That is a very large fall in the average Joe's wealth. (Pound in your pocket (Harold Wilson on devaluing of the pound in 1967) - stuff.

farmchoice

BluePlanet wrote: »

imo Macron appeared to be attempting to provide political cover for her gaffe.

i think you are greatly over playing this supposed gaffe, at worst it was something that was slightly lost in translation, in reality its nothing more than the Brits grasping at staws.

storker

Boris is kidding himself about "letting the conversation begin" and removing the backstop entirely, and also about the 30 days. I don't think he realises that it's the EU that will decide on how realistic his alternative to a physical border will be, not him or the ERG. If he comes back 30 days from now with some vague handwave in the direction of "new technology", I expect he'll be sent packing.

The best thing he can spend the next 30 days doing is working out how to shaft the DUP without shafting himself at the same time.

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

At least the French have a sense of humour about Johnson's foot rest.

Scandal: Quick! Add the renovation of the Elysée Palace to the brexit bill.

Jasus, make yourself comfortable why don't you. How bloody rude. I would have asked him to remove his feet from the furniture. Bloody savage.

prawnsambo

BluePlanet wrote: »

imo Macron appeared to be attempting to provide political cover for her gaffe.

I really can't see this 'gaffe'. It was perfectly clear what she was saying. Many commentators were absolutely gobsmacked at how it was taken up. You literally have to take one sentence, ignore everything said beforehand and ignore the context of what was basically a re-iteration of how you avoid the backstop kicking in.

For example: this

BluePlanet

farmchoice wrote: »

i think you are greatly over playing this supposed gaffe, at worst it was something that was slightly lost in translation, in reality its nothing more than the Brits grasping at staws.

I really don't think so.

On other forums the Brexiteers are all-in now on the "ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE IRISH BORDER" report:
https://www.prosperity-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2019/06/AAC-Interim-Report.pdf

It is believed that the EU are willing to scrap the Backstop.
Hardly the narrative Merkel intended.

prawnsambo

BluePlanet wrote: »

I really don't think so.

On other forums the Brexiteers are all-in now on the "ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE IRISH BORDER" report:
https://www.prosperity-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2019/06/AAC-Interim-Report.pdf

It is believed that the EU are willing to scrap the Backstop.
Hardly the narrative Merkel intended.

But this has been the kind of narrative in those circles every time somebody from the EU says something vaguely encouraging.

"EU are backing down and throwing Ireland under the bus" has been the usual reaction.

trellheim

BluePlanet wrote: »

I really don't think so.

On other forums the Brexiteers are all-in now on the "ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE IRISH BORDER" report:
https://www.prosperity-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2019/06/AAC-Interim-Report.pdf

It is believed that the EU are willing to scrap the Backstop.
Hardly the narrative Merkel intended.

If your position depends on believing this will happen, by definition surely this will be the position you will take ?

'Alternative arrangements' keeps on cropping up ... it is unicorn fodder - if any of it was feasible it would have sailed on through by now.

trellheim

For humour value I am reposting Boris with the feet on table @ the Elysee palace

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1164544802261819392

"Yes I come into your house to get a deal"

PS not a random picture either look in the mirror

trashcan

trellheim wrote: »

For humour value I am reposting Boris with the feet on table @ the Elysee palace

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1164544802261819392

"Yes I come into your house to get a deal"

PS not a random picture either look in the mirror

Suppose they’re lucky he didnt piss on the furniture as well.

Bit cynical

fash wrote: »

My actual thinking process is that - unless Boris is actually planning on crashing out and assuming parliament doesn't take over - his last play would be to offer to "solve" the " undemocratic" backstop by putting it to the people in NI - without getting into the details of that - in an attempt to bounce Ireland into agreeing to that - while planning on sabotaging the referendum in some manner.
If Ireland's messaging plays along on the "undemocratic" backstop - "the majority in NI want a backstop- why not let them decide" etc, then it becomes difficult for Ireland to not accept the bounce.
Hence what should Ireland's actual response to such a proposal be - and hence how should Ireland construct its messaging in the meantime - e.g. "principle of consent from both communities" etc.

It is an interesting idea and from Ireland's perspective, though not perfect, it is probably better than a UK crash out in a few weeks time. However for it to be meaningful, changes to the main text of the WA would have to be made; the forward declaration would not be enough. I don't think the EU would be open to this.

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

But this has been the kind of narrative in those circles every time somebody from the EU says something vaguely encouraging.

"EU are backing down and throwing Ireland under the bus" has been the usual reaction.

And here's a perfect example of exactly this happening earlier this year.

swampgas

BluePlanet wrote: »

Its not her fault the UK media and government are thus, that part is true.
However it is her responsibility to be cognizant of that reality and tailor her public statements to provide maximum clarity and minimize 'reading between the lines'.

No, she doesn't really have to do that. If the British press distort what she says that's their problem. The press will find a way to twist what is said to suit their agenda anyway, or they will simply make stuff up. Pandering to their mendacity is a waste of time.

The British seem to be treating this like a juvenile debating competition. It's actually deadly serious politics. If they insist on screwing around playing silly word games then the consequences are all on them.

J Mysterio

Seems there was a little context missing from shoegate.

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164563614243663872

Still...

Zubeneschamali

BluePlanet wrote: »

It is believed that the EU are willing to scrap the Backstop.

I don't think so. It is believed that Johnson and Co. can put enough spin on Merkel's remarks to claim a win of some description in the UK press. That is all these trips are for - to try and bolster Johnson's position in the UK.


Everyone on both sides knows that the UK is heading out without a deal unless something changes on the UK side.

trellheim

Seems there was a little context missing from shoegate.

A prime minister in a presser not knowing the cameras are always running ? I dont buy it

Tell me how

BluePlanet wrote: »

I really don't think so.

On other forums the Brexiteers are all-in now on the "ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE IRISH BORDER" report:
https://www.prosperity-uk.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/43/2019/06/AAC-Interim-Report.pdf

It is believed that the EU are willing to scrap the Backstop.
Hardly the narrative Merkel intended.

The Brexiteers have consistently been saying that the EU are willing to scrap the backstop because they want that narrative to dominate.

That does not mean that this is the case and nothing anyone from the EU has said supports the Brexiteers claims.

Just because they state something with conviction, does not make it the truth.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

A prime minister in a presser not knowing the cameras are always running ? I dont buy it

Ah, to be fair, he looked directly at them. Apparently Macron joked that he could use it as a footrest. He had his foot there for half a second.

trellheim

Like I said he knew well the cameras are always running, no skin off Macrons nose if the rosbif plays the silly english knigget ( with apologies to Monty Python)

fash

prawnsambo wrote: »

The 'undemocratic' stuff is just Cummingspeak for "we can't find anything else to say against it". They even defined it as NI being unable to have a say in rules they have to work to.


Omitting completely that these rules are in place now but somehow won't be undemocratic until the UK leave and the backstop kicks in.

Plus if I understand correctly, the backstop is limited to existing EU rules only - and not to future additional rules? So there is no imposition. Plus the North South Ministerial Council has a say in the EU rules.

And even more paradoxically ignoring the fact that NI voted to remain in the EU, but were forced 'democratically' to leave because England and Wales did.

Also some good points on the "lack of consent/democracy" here: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/08/what-boris-johnson-and-brexiteers-get-wrong-about-backstop

"The other version of consent in the Agreement was also tested: the Northern Ireland Assembly’s consent for measures affecting devolved interests. Again, the Brexiteers cheered the ruling then that terms of Withdrawal Agreement negotiations were not subject to devolved consent. If neither Brexit, against the voted choice in Northern Ireland, nor its negotiated terms breach the consent provisions of the Agreement, how can the backstop?"

fash

CelticRambler wrote: »

Your starting premise is flawed! Before the people of NI could be asked to vote on any new arrangement, such an arrangement would have to be fully approved by the EU. A "sufficiently ok-ish alternative" wouldn't be a good enough proposal with which to move forward.

Yes I accept that it must of course be ok from the EU perspective as legitimately protecting the single market, doesn't impose massive cost and inconvenience and is actually not a fantasy etc.

But once it achieves something like " ok there is some disruption, it doesn't quite achieve the "no related checks" requirement but from a EU perspective, the EU isn't care and has no particular further interest beyond supporting the locals", then it seems to be that the Cummings argument seems to be aiming at saying " this is not for the EU to decide, it is for the people of NI to decide if that is preferable to regulatory alignment.

Or that was my thought process in any case

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

Yes I accept that it must of course be ok from the EU perspective as legitimately protecting the single market, doesn't impose massive cost and inconvenience and is actually not a fantasy etc.

But once it achieves something like " ok there is some disruption, it doesn't quite achieve the "no related checks" requirement but from a EU perspective, the EU isn't care and has no particular further interest beyond supporting the locals", then it seems to be that the Cummings argument seems to be aiming at saying " this is not for the EU to decide, it is for the people of NI to decide if that is preferable to regulatory alignment.

Or that was my thought process in any case

I suspect that in any case, it's not a question they want to ask, because they might not like the answer. Stuff your referendum, we'll have our own, might not be the desired response.

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seems there was a little context missing from shoegate.

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164563614243663872

Still...

No, a proper statesman would never do this or even get into that frame of mind. It's all one big joke to this clown. Unfortunately millions will have to live with the consequences.

serfboard

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1164506819617837057?s=20

Good grief: "Major boost for Boris Johnson as Emmanuel Macron says Withdrawal Agreement can be amended"

This is the kind of headline even TNN (Trump News Network AKA Fox) wouldn't use.

I'd expect this kind of stuff from a North Korean publication, or from state controlled media in 1984.

"Victory as our Glorious Leader gives the foreigners a right good thrashing".