Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

No, a proper statesman would never do this or even get into that frame of mind. It's all one big joke to this clown. Unfortunately millions will have to live with the consequences.

Or he was set up by Macron.

Spanish Eyes

Whatever about the footstool nonsense, does anyone else think that Boris' tie is nearly as long as Trumps?

Beechwoodspark

Such rubbish from the Uk media. They really are pandering to the Tories. Message “re packaged” for the Uk audience.

prawnsambo

serfboard wrote: »

Good grief: "Major boost for Boris Johnson as Emmanuel Macron says Withdrawal Agreement can be amended"

This is the kind of headline even TNN (Trump News Network AKA Fox) wouldn't use.

I'd expect this kind of stuff from a North Korean publication, or from state controlled media in 1984.

"Victory as our Glorious Leader gives the foreigners a right good thrashing".

Haven't you heard? North Korea is gone. Liz Truss has single-handedly re-united the two Koreas.


The narrative in the brexit supporting press (pretty much all of them) has always been EU blinks, EU backs down, [insert first name of PM] has shown [insert name of EU leader] who's boss. It's not about whether it's true or not. It's how it can be spun until the next news cycle.

Kermit.de.frog

While the underlying message has not changed I still feel Macron and Merkle were not direct enough in their press conferences. I also think Merkel made a blunder with the "30 day" thing which was clearly an off the cuff flippant comment but used as red meat by the Tory rags.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1164560400370806784

jimmycrackcorm

BluePlanet wrote: »

imo Macron appeared to be attempting to provide political cover for her gaffe.

It's not a gaffe if in 30 days the UK says backstop is restricted to NI.

Let BoJo tell the DUP that the alternative solutions he promises will fix it up later.

serfboard

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

the "30 day" thing

I fully expect Johnson to re-gurgitate, without amendment, the "Prosperity UK" nonsense in the following manner:

"They asked us to give them details of Alternative Arrangements in 30 days. But, they underestimated our British industriousness, and here we have it done in half the time".

Then, when the EU tell them it's nonsense, we'll get:

"They asked us for alternative arrangements to the backstop, we gave it to them, and it's not our fault that they have rejected it".

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

While the underlying message has not changed I still feel Macron and Merkle were not direct enough in their press conferences. I also think Merkel made a blunder with the "30 day" thing which was clearly an off the cuff flippant comment but used as red meat by the Tory rags.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1164560400370806784

But if she was blunt, and tbh I felt she was pretty to the point, then the UK media would claim bullying and intransigence.

They simply can never even hope to win. Look at the UK wide Backstop. A major real win for the UK, a major concession by the EU and it receives nothing but hostility. Even the last extension. As soon as it was granted it was seen as proof that EU was buckling.

The real question should be why Johnson left it until now, by placing his clearly ridiculous demand that talks would only happen if backstop was removed, instead of talking to them earlier. Why allow markets etc continue to get jittery because he didn't talk.

And why has he effectively dropped his precondition of removal of the backstop before any talks. Quite a climbdown by the supposed new Churchill

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

But if she was blunt, and tbh I felt she was pretty to the point, then the UK media would claim bullying and intransigence.

They simply can never even hope to win.

If by "win" you mean get positive headlines in the UK press, then no, they cannot hope to win.


But that is not a win that Merkel or Macron care about. After the UK leaves with no deal and is forced back to the table looking for a Free Trade Agreement from a position of abject helplessness, you can expect to see Macron and Merkel win.

Enzokk

serfboard wrote: »

Good grief: "Major boost for Boris Johnson as Emmanuel Macron says Withdrawal Agreement can be amended"

This is the kind of headline even TNN (Trump News Network AKA Fox) wouldn't use.

I'd expect this kind of stuff from a North Korean publication, or from state controlled media in 1984.

"Victory as our Glorious Leader gives the foreigners a right good thrashing".

Macron said the backstop is not up for negotiation, but he seemed to suggest there is very little room in the WA. Why do I get the feeling that he is talking of the original backstop, NI only, that will be up for negotiation? Anything else makes little sense to me.

J Mysterio

Seems a little daunting compared to the staus quo I would say.

https://twitter.com/fsb_policy/status/1162316728191332353

Balanadan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If by "win" you mean get positive headlines in the UK press, then no, they cannot hope to win.


But that is not a win that Merkel or Macron care about. After the UK leaves with no deal and is forced back to the table looking for a Free Trade Agreement from a position of abject helplessness, you can expect to see Macron and Merkel win.

I don't see any point in worrying about the headlines in the British media. It doesn't change the reality of the situation.

Kermit.de.frog

Heads up - US Rep Brendan Boyle will be on Newsnight tonight discussing Brexit and Congress + GFA

BluePlanet

Ireland will have to apply border controls on food after no-deal Brexit, UK group says
‘Hard to exaggerate disruption’ no-deal scenario would cause, says food research group
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/ireland-will-have-to-apply-border-controls-on-food-after-no-deal-brexit-uk-group-says-1.3994536

The document highlighted the logistical impossibility of fulfilling the physical/veterinary, documentary and identification checks which would be required by the EU in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

In such a scenario, every food consignment crossing from Northern Ireland into the Republic would have to be accompanied by an Export Health Certificate, which is required by the EU for all products of animal origin that are being imported to the EU from a third country.

Pretty depressing reading.
Says some companies will go under in a matter of days.

prawnsambo

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ireland will have to apply border controls on food after no-deal Brexit, UK group says
‘Hard to exaggerate disruption’ no-deal scenario would cause, says food research group
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/ireland-will-have-to-apply-border-controls-on-food-after-no-deal-brexit-uk-group-says-1.3994536

Pretty depressing reading.
Says some companies will go under in a matter of days.

Which is why I believe there will be a de facto border in the Irish Sea in the case of a hard brexit. And the EU will treat all Irish agri-food as Irish rather than Irish/British. Most of what comes across the border for us is dairy and cattle/beef. Certainly in value terms anyway. Approx €1.5 billion per annum iirc.

Edit: The alternative is to allow the collapse of the entire NI agri-food sector. And that would be horrendously retrograde. However, I find it abhorrent that the UK would seem to gleefully inflict this on what are supposed to be their own citizens. But ho hum, we want our brexit.

Spanish Eyes

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ireland will have to apply border controls on food after no-deal Brexit, UK group says
‘Hard to exaggerate disruption’ no-deal scenario would cause, says food research group
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/ireland-will-have-to-apply-border-controls-on-food-after-no-deal-brexit-uk-group-says-1.3994536

Pretty depressing reading.
Says some companies will go under in a matter of days.

So what has the EU 27 got to say about this? That is the question du jour.

The quote is from a UK source. Reported by IT.

54and56

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ireland will have to apply border controls on food after no-deal Brexit, UK group says
‘Hard to exaggerate disruption’ no-deal scenario would cause, says food research group
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/ireland-will-have-to-apply-border-controls-on-food-after-no-deal-brexit-uk-group-says-1.3994536



Pretty depressing reading.
Says some companies will go under in a matter of days.

As someone who see's business Balance Sheets on a regular basis I can absolutely imagine plenty of companies who run with very lean working capital getting into trouble very quickly. Those with high fixed overheads (staff, rent, leasing payments etc) will quickly run out of cash if their revenue stream is more or less turned off overnight and I literally mean days/weeks not weeks/months.

It'll get very real very quickly and the domino effect will amplify things e.g. if you are a business supplying another business who you feel could be very negatively impacted by Brexit (a haulage company, mushroom producer or beef factory etc) will you continue to sell your products or service to them on normal credit terms when you have a genuine concern they may get into trouble and be unable to pay you?

I can see a situation like the frozen credit markets of 2008 occurring but this time it's amongst everyday "normal" trading businesses whose only "crime" is to be a victim of Brexit.

fr336

prawnsambo wrote: »

Which is why I believe there will be a de facto border in the Irish Sea in the case of a hard brexit. And the EU will treat all Irish agri-food as Irish rather than Irish/British. Most of what comes across the border for us is dairy and cattle/beef. Certainly in value terms anyway. Approx €1.5 billion per annum iirc.

Edit: The alternative is to allow the collapse of the entire NI agri-food sector. And that would be horrendously retrograde. However, I find it abhorrent that the UK would seem to gleefully inflict this on what are supposed to be their own citizens. But ho hum, we want our brexit.

Very grating how the English are always determined to hang onto the "United" kingdom yet don't seem to value Northen Ireland, Scotland or Wales at all. A UK only when it suits apparently.

Westernyelp

The United Kingdom of Westminster and Eton.

Mr.Nice Guy

Brendan Boyle was great on Newsnight. He's been a good friend to Ireland. Well worth checking out his interview.

He also pointed out the flaw in Johnson's claim that he wouldn't put up a border and how this doesn't hold up when you have separate jurisdictions. It was nice to see this explained properly to the UK public.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Brendan Boyle was great on Newsnight. He's been a good friend to Ireland. Well worth checking out his interview.

He also pointed out the flaw in Johnson's claim that he wouldn't put up a border and how this doesn't hold up when you have separate jurisdictions. It was nice to see this explained properly to the UK public.

Another properly briefed, clear rational speaker...but it will all fall on deaf ears I fear.

prawnsambo

fr336 wrote: »

Very grating how the English are always determined to hang onto the "United" kingdom yet don't seem to value Northen Ireland, Scotland or Wales at all. A UK only when it suits apparently.

A summary of the report is available here. Just a one pager, but it is grim reading for any NI based food producer. Even a sandwich maker.

Kermit.de.frog

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Brendan Boyle was great on Newsnight. He's been a good friend to Ireland. Well worth checking out his interview.

He also pointed out the flaw in Johnson's claim that he wouldn't put up a border and how this doesn't hold up when you have separate jurisdictions. It was nice to see this explained properly to the UK public.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1164658639115702272

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1164658639115702272

He was very good, fully au fait with all the issues

Kermit.de.frog

Excellent opinion piece in the Guardian.

Hard to disagree with a single sentence from our perspective.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/22/brexit-northern-ireland-border

Varta

Strazdas wrote: »

He was very good, fully au fait with all the issues

Note how the moment he stopped speaking they switched to a different country, albeit one that is also setting fire to itself, in an attempt to minimise what he said. It is a war between the EU/Ireland and the UK fought with words.

jm08

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Brendan Boyle was great on Newsnight. He's been a good friend to Ireland. Well worth checking out his interview.

He also pointed out the flaw in Johnson's claim that he wouldn't put up a border and how this doesn't hold up when you have separate jurisdictions. It was nice to see this explained properly to the UK public.

He (and his brother who is also a congressman) is 1st generation Irish American (parents from Donegal). He tweeted a photo of himself and his children stacking hay on the family farm in Donegal during the summer, so he has very close connections with Ireland and a lot of familiarty with the Border.

Westernyelp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Excellent opinion piece in the Guardian.

Hard to disagree with a single sentence from our perspective.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/22/brexit-northern-ireland-border

Eloquent piece. unlikely to be embraced by the tribes though,

Fr Tod Umptious

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Brendan Boyle was great on Newsnight. He's been a good friend to Ireland. Well worth checking out his interview.

He also pointed out the flaw in Johnson's claim that he wouldn't put up a border and how this doesn't hold up when you have separate jurisdictions. It was nice to see this explained properly to the UK public.

Thought he was excellent.

He really spelled out the fact that you cannot have a "hard Brexit" and still keep an open border.

ThePanjandrum

Westernyelp wrote: »

Eloquent piece. unlikely to embraced by the tribes though,

I liked this reply

Someone should call "Bingo", as I think it is now fair to say that Simon Jenkins has advocated every possible position vis a vis Brexit over the course of the last 3 years.

Here's a flavour from the sage

"Ignore the prophets of doom. Brexit will be good for Britain"

"Abrupt departure from Europe’s entire economic community was never put to the referendum. It is not the will of the UK’s now spineless parliament. "

"The City may thrive despite Brexit, but the rest of us won’t "

"I find it staggering that the remain minority can accuse the Brexit majority of not knowing truth from lie"

"As soon as the referendum result was announced, the defeated remainers tried to pretend it had not happened. They demanded another referendum, which inevitably sounded like sour grapes and a denial of democracy. Some insulted Brexiters and others wasted time going to court."

"Hard Brexit was surely put to bed by Boris Johnson’s resignation speech in the Commons this week, a confection of negativity and verbosity."

"Brexiter MPs are not the problem – it’s the other 600 of them "

"Why are 40 hardline MPs setting the tone of the Brexit debate? "

"This grotesque act of national self-harm was invented purely to win Johnson leadership of the Conservative party."

"History cries out for Britain not to abandon free trade. Once this led to colonies – now the European single market is the only option"

"Britain does not need a “seat at the Brussels table” to play an active role in Europe’s economy. It will always do that."

"Common sense indicates that, at the day’s end, Britain must somehow stay within the regulatory regime of a European customs union. "

"One thing has become clear from Brussels – that the EU negotiators are not interested in the good of the EU, let alone of Britain. They are about the self-interest of a cabal of unelected officials who have no love for Britain. They hate the reality: that the British had the guts to hold a referendum that few of them would dare in their respective countries."

"The public’s one serious objection to the single market is its unrestricted movement of people. But the migration crisis is bringing that to an end across Europe. Schengen is collapsing."

"No-deal Brexit was once a sick Tory joke. Now it’s serious "

"Talk of “no deal” is illiterate, playing politics with other people’s lives."

"Even if Britain does leave the EU on WTO rules next March, life will still go on largely as normal "

"Britons clearly wish to retain their open market status within Europe. Parliament should reflect that wish, and not let a minority drive negotiations to a crash."

"Brussels is the senior partner in any deal, and would not make it easier. So there was no point in presenting any deal to the British people as advantageous. It is the least-worst option, not the pretend-best."

"Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good."

"Towering ahead is one of the greatest peacetime tasks to face any British leader, to pull a shattered parliament back from the brink. It means swallowing all bombast and pride and taking forward a compromise based on May’s deal. There is no alternative."

"Trade is not about control but about power. The UK has little power against its bigger neighbour. "

"Cynicism and hypocrisy are what the country needs. Johnson will waffle and dissemble and mis-state and un-promise, until the country finds itself miraculously on the other side of the Brexit abyss. Such is modern politics, that it must rely for clear guidance on a leader’s capacity to lie."

"As anyone who knows Brussels will attest, its unelected cardinals do not care about single markets or migration or the euro, or even Europe. They care about their money, of which they are about to lose a fifth. On this Britain has no leverage, short of “no deal”. "

"The irony of Brexit is that it will need a severe boost to the power and centrality of government. Northern Ireland must revert to being a direct-ruled British colony."

and now finally:

"Boris Johnson should call the DUP’s bluff and create a border in the Irish Sea "