Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

jm08 wrote: »

He (and his brother who is also a congressman) is 1st generation Irish American (parents from Donegal). He tweeted a photo of himself and his children stacking hay on the family farm in Donegal during the summer, so he has very close connections with Ireland and a lot of familiarty with the Border.

I suppose that it was completely unstaged and he was surprised that anyone should have taken such a photo.

Westernyelp

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I liked this reply

Someone should call "Bingo", as I think it is now fair to say that Simon Jenkins has advocated every possible position vis a vis Brexit over the course of the last 3 years.

Here's a flavour from the sage

"Ignore the prophets of doom. Brexit will be good for Britain"

"Abrupt departure from Europe’s entire economic community was never put to the referendum. It is not the will of the UK’s now spineless parliament. "

"The City may thrive despite Brexit, but the rest of us won’t "

"I find it staggering that the remain minority can accuse the Brexit majority of not knowing truth from lie"

"As soon as the referendum result was announced, the defeated remainers tried to pretend it had not happened. They demanded another referendum, which inevitably sounded like sour grapes and a denial of democracy. Some insulted Brexiters and others wasted time going to court."

"Hard Brexit was surely put to bed by Boris Johnson’s resignation speech in the Commons this week, a confection of negativity and verbosity."

"Brexiter MPs are not the problem – it’s the other 600 of them "

"Why are 40 hardline MPs setting the tone of the Brexit debate? "

"This grotesque act of national self-harm was invented purely to win Johnson leadership of the Conservative party."

"History cries out for Britain not to abandon free trade. Once this led to colonies – now the European single market is the only option"

"Britain does not need a “seat at the Brussels table” to play an active role in Europe’s economy. It will always do that."

"Common sense indicates that, at the day’s end, Britain must somehow stay within the regulatory regime of a European customs union. "

"One thing has become clear from Brussels – that the EU negotiators are not interested in the good of the EU, let alone of Britain. They are about the self-interest of a cabal of unelected officials who have no love for Britain. They hate the reality: that the British had the guts to hold a referendum that few of them would dare in their respective countries."

"The public’s one serious objection to the single market is its unrestricted movement of people. But the migration crisis is bringing that to an end across Europe. Schengen is collapsing."

"No-deal Brexit was once a sick Tory joke. Now it’s serious "

"Talk of “no deal” is illiterate, playing politics with other people’s lives."

"Even if Britain does leave the EU on WTO rules next March, life will still go on largely as normal "

"Britons clearly wish to retain their open market status within Europe. Parliament should reflect that wish, and not let a minority drive negotiations to a crash."

"Brussels is the senior partner in any deal, and would not make it easier. So there was no point in presenting any deal to the British people as advantageous. It is the least-worst option, not the pretend-best."

"Social democracy and capitalism both need hitting over the head from time to time. It detoxifies them of bureaucracy, monopoly and cronyism. Britain is experiencing such a time. It should do us no end of good."

"Towering ahead is one of the greatest peacetime tasks to face any British leader, to pull a shattered parliament back from the brink. It means swallowing all bombast and pride and taking forward a compromise based on May’s deal. There is no alternative."

"Trade is not about control but about power. The UK has little power against its bigger neighbour. "

"Cynicism and hypocrisy are what the country needs. Johnson will waffle and dissemble and mis-state and un-promise, until the country finds itself miraculously on the other side of the Brexit abyss. Such is modern politics, that it must rely for clear guidance on a leader’s capacity to lie."

"As anyone who knows Brussels will attest, its unelected cardinals do not care about single markets or migration or the euro, or even Europe. They care about their money, of which they are about to lose a fifth. On this Britain has no leverage, short of “no deal”. "

"The irony of Brexit is that it will need a severe boost to the power and centrality of government. Northern Ireland must revert to being a direct-ruled British colony."

and now finally:

"Boris Johnson should call the DUP’s bluff and create a border in the Irish Sea "

If past utterances ruled people out, there would be nobody left in this game, his points stand.

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

A summary of the report is available here. Just a one pager, but it is grim reading for any NI based food producer. Even a sandwich maker.

As is the entire report if you want it. But as its from Tim Lang's "project," you don't need to go to the trouble of reading it to know what it says.

Popeleo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I liked this reply

Someone should call "Bingo", as I think it is now fair to say that Simon Jenkins has advocated every possible position vis a vis Brexit over the course of the last 3 years.

........

So, in essence, you're telling us that a prominent pro-Brexit journalist has slowly worked through every possible scenario and now realises that a border down the Irish sea is the only logical solution to stop Arlene and co. causing great damage to the country they are supposedly loyal to.

Ok. Good to know. Thanks for the long quote.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

As is the entire report if you want it. But as its from Tim Lang's "project," you don't need to go to the trouble of reading it to know what it says.

I (and probably most people here) are in complete ignorance of who and what that is. Don't bother trying to educate us, it's completely irrelevant. Most of what that paper has been summarised as saying is not news.

prawnsambo

jm08 wrote: »

He (and his brother who is also a congressman) is 1st generation Irish American (parents from Donegal). He tweeted a photo of himself and his children stacking hay on the family farm in Donegal during the summer, so he has very close connections with Ireland and a lot of familiarty with the Border.

His brother Kevin is not a congressman, he's a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives,

fash

Popeleo wrote: »

So, in essence, you're telling us that a prominent pro-Brexit journalist has slowly worked through every possible scenario and now realises that a border down the Irish sea is the only logical solution to stop Arlene and co. causing great damage to the country they are supposedly loyal to.

Ok. Good to know. Thanks for the long quote.

This just proves that he was never a true believer in Brexit (the religion of peace and prosperity) - a true believer would never lose faith -no matter what the circumstances as the reward for the true believer comes in the sunny uplands hereafter - always hereafter.

(Also I think we should kill the unbelievers and those who blaspheme against Brexit - like this guy) etc.

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

This just proves that he was never a true believer in Brexit (the religion of peace and prosperity) - a true believer would never lose faith -no matter what the circumstances as the reward for the true believer comes in the sunny uplands hereafter - always hereafter.

(Also I think we should kill the unbelievers and those who blaspheme against Brexit - like this guy) etc.

No. They're usually just told to move to Europe.



To be fair, if you want to brexit and you're not one of the gibbering 'my head hurts, so no deal sounds easy' brigade, the obvious solution is to ditch the DUP or call their bluff. In the long run, ditching them would be the best course of action, but it requires an election and a majority that excludes them.

Fr Tod Umptious

prawnsambo wrote: »

Which is why I believe there will be a de facto border in the Irish Sea in the case of a hard brexit. And the EU will treat all Irish agri-food as Irish rather than Irish/British. Most of what comes across the border for us is dairy and cattle/beef. Certainly in value terms anyway. Approx €1.5 billion per annum iirc.

Edit: The alternative is to allow the collapse of the entire NI agri-food sector. And that would be horrendously retrograde. However, I find it abhorrent that the UK would seem to gleefully inflict this on what are supposed to be their own citizens. But ho hum, we want our brexit.

Nevermind the UK, it's the DUP who are willing to inflict this.
And not only on their own citizens, but on their own voters.

As I said in thread III or IV, it's like 1914 all over again.
When northern unionists were willing to engage in shooting war with the king's forces just to prove how loyal they were to said king.

Leroy42

Just to highlight, onvecagain, that an reopening of the WA will create more problems than answers for the EU. The backstop is merely the sledgehammer to open it.

David Davies in the Telegraph today discussing what he wants to change in the WA.

I’d argue for contingency on the money. I’d argue for tighter limits, timetable limits, sunset clauses on ECJ and things like that. I’d have a small shopping list.

It wouldn’t be a ridiculous one, but one I think that any serious European Parliament and any European Council that wants a deal could go with.

If I were doing this for Boris, I would be insistent on is that they make the bill - the £39bn, the second half of it - contingent on progress on the future economic partnership.

prawnsambo

Here's Manufacturing NI's take on what a hard brexit will actually mean. 12 tweet thread, but (to excuse the pun) there's meat in every tweet.

Here it is on a web page for those who don't want to (or can't) do twitter.

The travels of a chicken and bacon sandwich from Derry to Donegal would make your eyes water.

LuckyLloyd

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just to highlight, onvecagain, that an reopening of the WA will create more problems than answers for the EU. The backstop is merely the sledgehammer to open it.

David Davies in the Telegraph today discussing what he wants to change in the WA.

I just laugh when I hear David Davis. He was in the negotiating room with Barnier. Did he just forget to bring up all these things at the time? Or was he just stunned into silence by a well chosen scarf on the part of his antagonist? Why does he get a platform without being reminded of his failure to negotiate these things over and over?

Turnrew

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

kunst nugget

Turnrew wrote: »

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

Considering Dominic Cumming's strategy for victory is to be as vague as possible on details, I'd sincerely doubt it...

prawnsambo

Turnrew wrote: »

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

Have you given any thought to what might be new about it? Because there's nothing new coming from the UK so far, apart from the usual bluff and bluster.

Peregrinus

Turnrew wrote: »

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

If there's a deal (which I think unlikely, but if there is) it will be implemented before a general election. Meanign, it won't be an issue in the GE; it will be done and dusted. The GE will be about what happens in the next phase of Brexit.

They're not going to agree a deal, and then look for a mandate to implement it in a general election.

Leroy42

Turnrew wrote: »

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

They won't have to. Simply asserting that Johnson ditched the hated WA and got a great new deal from the EU after showing them whats what will be more than enough.

Look at the announcement by Liz Truss yesterday about a trade deal with SK. Apparently it is a sign that the future is bright and that all the money, disruption and division created by Brexit will be worth it. So what is this new deal I hear you ask? What regulations have they removed, laws that will be changed?

Will there is none, at best (and I have yet to dig into the finer detail so only going on the public statements about the deal) they have simply rolled over the current deal. Which, forgive me, but I thought that all the deals had been foistered on a captive UK by the undemocratic EU and the UK would never agree to simply continue on as before.

But the actual reality won't make any difference. It is the soundbite, the ra-ra UK rules the world that is the key.

54and56

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I suppose that it was completely unstaged and he was surprised that anyone should have taken such a photo.

You referring to BoJo acting like an uncouth teenager in the Élysée Palace yesterday?

ArmaniJeanss

The 30-day ultimatum thing has slightly put a spoke in the wheels of the idea an October election I think.

Call me Al

Leroy42 wrote: »

Just to highlight, onvecagain, that an reopening of the WA will create more problems than answers for the EU. The backstop is merely the sledgehammer to open it.

David Davies in the Telegraph today discussing what he wants to change in the WA.

It's as if 2017/2018 never happened for David Davis. He sat with Barnier and had his chance and clearly (a) never argued for anything, or (b)failed when tried. Take your pick.

Leroy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

Have you given any thought to what might be new about it? Because there's nothing new coming from the UK so far, apart from the usual bluff and bluster.

The only thing that may change is the removal of the UK wide backstop to revert back to the NI backstop, ie border in the sea.

Even if the UK can somehow magically produce a workable and acceptable new proposal before 31 Oct, they are still in exactly the same place they are now. What happens if, or more likely when, by the end of the transition period everything in the proposal has not come to fruition? Which is hardly unlikely since most large scale projects overrun especially one as complicated and new as this would be. What then? It backstop time.

So Johnson is, IMO, looking to ditch the DUP. Force the WA (amended) through the HoC (many Tory rebels will vote for it rather than the other possibility of JC getting PM) and there are already quite a few Labour rebels that will vote for it.

His other options are Extension (which IMO will be the end of the Tories) or No deal, which whilst he may think is a runner really does nothing to solve the overall problems that Brexit causes and makes them worse.

At this stage I am actually surprised that more MP's have not come out demanding that the DUP get on board with Brexit and accept the will of the people to leave the EU and the WA (amended) is the best way to go about it and they cannot continue to hold the UK ransom.

Call me Al

Turnrew wrote: »

Will there be the outline of a new deal before a general election?

Going by print media this week its quite likely there will be in the Brexit-loving press, although it will all be a complete work of fiction with no basis on anything real. .

looksee

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The 30-day ultimatum thing has slightly put a spoke in the wheels of the idea an October election I think.

There is no 30 day ultimatum. This is a distraction gimmick that has been seized on, there is no basis for assuming it is a 'thing'.

kunst nugget

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The 30-day ultimatum thing has slightly put a spoke in the wheels of the idea an October election I think.

What ultimatum?

Shelga

I'm sure I'm being a pedantic nag, but can people make sure they're talking about the right David when referring to David Davis vs David Davies?

David Davies is a Welsh MP for Monmouth in South Wales.

David Davis is the one people mean most of the time when they say David Davies- former Brexit Secretary, can be heard chuckling away every second day with his mates on Radio 4, as if he never heard of the concepts of personal responsibility or accountability, or of the impending economic collapse of the UK.

Both are Brexiters but Davies is just a backbencher, not usually in the news.

ArmaniJeanss

looksee wrote: »

There is no 30 day ultimatum. This is a distraction gimmick that has been seized on, there is no basis for assuming it is a 'thing'.

I know there isn't so I probably should have put ultimatum in single quotes.
But the acceptance/claim/belief about it that has suddenly appeared is a bit of a game changer.
It makes it more difficult for Johnson to look to call an election for mid-October. It would have to be called in the next 14 days for that I think, 35 calendar days lead-in is needed.

10000maniacs

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1164658639115702272

Move of the century. Make the US Government co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement.

54and56

Leroy42 wrote: »

The only thing that may change is the removal of the UK wide backstop to revert back to the NI backstop, ie border in the sea.

Even if the UK can somehow magically produce a workable and acceptable new proposal before 31 Oct, they are still in exactly the same place they are now. What happens if, or more likely when, by the end of the transition period everything in the proposal has not come to fruition? Which is hardly unlikely since most large scale projects overrun especially one as complicated and new as this would be. What then? It backstop time.

So Johnson is, IMO, looking to ditch the DUP. Force the WA (amended) through the HoC (many Tory rebels will vote for it rather than the other possibility of JC getting PM) and there are already quite a few Labour rebels that will vote for it.

His other options are Extension (which IMO will be the end of the Tories) or No deal, which whilst he may think is a runner really does nothing to solve the overall problems that Brexit causes and makes them worse.

At this stage I am actually surprised that more MP's have not come out demanding that the DUP get on board with Brexit and accept the will of the people to leave the EU and the WA (amended) is the best way to go about it and they cannot continue to hold the UK ransom.

Yes Brexit is now a cult for many of these Tory MP's but another cult that is deeply embedded in them is that the Union of GB & I is sacrosanct and to be protected at all costs, particularly from upstart Fenians.

Just check out Michael Goves past statements and writings (Google Michael Gove Good Friday Agreement pamplet) and you'll get a sense of why the same cohort of hard brexiteers won't countenance throwing the DUP under the bus despite the majority of people in NI being in favour of a border down the Irish sea.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1164658639115702272

This is a lovely response

https://twitter.com/ChrisgEngland/status/1164671881682837504

Not at all an angry person

That entire thread is an angry cesspit of triggered folk

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

This is a lovely response

https://twitter.com/ChrisgEngland/status/1164671881682837504

Not at all an angry person

That entire thread is an angry cesspit of triggered folk

To be fair, he got 100% roasted for it. Not one person that I saw supported his 'view'.