Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Jizique

Brendan O'Neill and the lads at spiked will be upset at the death of one of the Koch brothers

BluePlanet

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a two-pronged attack on what happened in Berlin and Paris. Firstly saying the EU are working on this is an attempt to try and bat the ball back into the EU court. Johnson stupidly committed to doing something he wasn't asked to do in thirty days. So the first thing is to take the 'task' off him. Job done, check.
The second part is to then give some credence to the Prosperity UK report and push some of the dotty ideas into the mainstream. And there it is if needed. All these wonderful alternative arrangements that are ready to go because y'know the papers say so. And that's the second bit, we have done it in 30 days.

All being set up for the intransigent EU to be the bad guys again.

I would add that this is all made possible by Merkel's gaffe, and Macron's attempts to paper over them.
Honestly it was amateur hour all round.

Tell me how

BluePlanet wrote: »

I would add that this is all made possible by Merkel's gaffe, and Macron's attempts to paper over them.
Honestly it was amateur hour all round.

Merkel didn't gaffe.
She said hypothetically if it could be done, it could be done.

Brexiteers are clutching at straws putting anything on Merkel.
What do they expect her to do within the next 30 days? Ball is still in UK hands with the onus on them to forward viable alternatives.

Bit cynical

funkey_monkey wrote: »

My understanding is (and correct me if wrong) is that the backstop is only to be activated in the even of there not being a deal. UK <-> EU is too big a market for there not to be a deal so a trade deal will be made and the backstop will be irrelevant.

If they crash out now then it is a problem, but if they sign up and move onto the trade phase then any deal reached should consign the backstop to history.

[...]

Am I wrong on this?

If they crash out now, the backstop doesn't apply because the backstop is part of the overall withdrawal agreement which was rejected by the UK parliament.

Enzokk

BluePlanet wrote: »

I would add that this is all made possible by Merkel's gaffe, and Macron's attempts to paper over them.
Honestly it was amateur hour all round.

Seeing that the answer to what Merkel said seems to be a report that was released in July, what she said is true, right? If there is a solution out there, whether it takes 2 years or 30 days, the EU will listen. The AAC report has been dismissed already so more searching to go.

Bit cynical

Tell me how wrote: »

Merkel didn't gaffe.
She said hypothetically if it could be done, it could be done.

Brexiteers are clutching at straws putting anything on Merkel.
What do they expect her to do within the next 30 days? Ball is still in UK hands with the onus on them to forward viable alternatives.

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

Seeing that the answer to what Merkel said seems to be a report that was released in July, what she said is true, right? If there is a solution out there, whether it takes 2 years or 30 days, the EU will listen. The AAC report has been dismissed already so more searching to go.

They'll change the structure of the document (without changing the actual content) - put a lovely new cover on it with a clever new name - and re-present it!

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

I think she just threw that out in a question and answer session during the press conference. It was Johnson who seized on the 30 day thing.

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

If they crash out now, the backstop doesn't apply because the backstop is part of the overall withdrawal agreement which was rejected by the UK parliament.

It depends on what you mean by "backstop". The principle will remain whether they take the current WA - or wait, suffer No Deal and then come back. It is technically true that if they leave there is a good chance that they lose NI (& Scotland) - in which case no backstop would be required, however that aside the " backstop" principle will still remain.

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Merkel was quite clever in her statement but probably she should have coordinated with Macron.

Thinking about this, if Boris gets to late October 2019, the best EU response would be to say "your ideas are intriguing and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter/hear more - but we just don't quite have time by 31 October".
Just to make Boris's do or die no deal on 31 October more difficult/Boris's own fault.

fash

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

Strazdas

fash wrote: »

Can someone explain the " no deal then election" hypothesis to (thick) me? If there is a no deal, why would the Labour party agree to an election immediately instead of waiting for the no deal horror to crush the Tory party? I.e. Wait a year - or even until the current 5 years are up?

The idea that Johnson would call the election first, leaves the EU and then the election is held (there's a six week gap between calling the election and it being held).

Bit cynical

fash wrote: »

It depends on what you mean by "backstop". The principle will remain whether they take the current WA - or wait, suffer No Deal and then come back. It is technically true that if they leave there is a good chance that they lose NI (& Scotland) - in which case no backstop would be required, however that aside the " backstop" principle will still remain.

I mean the backstop provision which exists as text in the WA. Technically that only applies if the WA is in force at the time the UK leave which I think was the issue for the poster who asked the question.

Yes it will still exist as an idea after that.

prawnsambo

This is what passes for journalistic commentary apparently. Bizarre stuff.

Bit cynical

Strazdas wrote: »

I think she just threw that out in a question and answer session during the press conference. It was Johnson who seized on the 30 day thing.

I think it was a little more planned than that but regardless the effect of it was to put Johnson on the spot. Both of them knew that the official line of the EU was that the backstop as specified in the WA text would remain no matter what, but if Johnson pointed this out, he would have been seen as the inflexible one by the press. So Johnson is now forced to produce this report which he knows regardless of the content will be rejected by the EU.

Akrasia

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think it was a little more planned than that but regardless the effect of it was to put Johnson on the spot. Both of them knew that the official line of the EU was that the backstop as specified in the WA text would remain no matter what, but if Johnson pointed this out, he would have been seen as the inflexible one by the press. So Johnson is now forced to produce this report which he knows regardless of the content will be rejected by the EU.

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

BluePlanet

Akrasia wrote: »

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

Exactly.
Additionally they (Merkel and Macron) didn't exactly close the door tight enough on Re-negotiation and ditching the BackStop.

I say that because BoJo and the Tories believe that is the game they are playing right now.

Its great the Brits are looking at Alternative Arrangements, but that is all part of the WA already. Yet they don't appear to understand that.

FrancieBrady

Akrasia wrote: »

Johnson will just propose a fanciful technological solution again and then blame the EU for not being willing to give his non proposal a try

Who cares, only the easily deluded.

I genuinely believe Johnson made a hames of his Berlin/Paris trip. The onus is now firmly on him.

He has navigated from 'not negotiating until the backstop is dropped' to having to go (technically begging) to Europe and coming home with 30 days to come up with credible alternatives.

Lackadaisical

It seems the level of debate is debased to the level of the school bully. What’s more worrying is they clearly have an audience for this kind of thing!

An Claidheamh

Once again, this stupid Brexiter's nonsense is not challenged by the BBC.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.indy100.com/article/suella-braverman-irish-border-brexit-radio-4-australia-9075961%3famp

Wondered it be great if there was no border in Ireland, like Australia.

J Mysterio

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

PopePalpatine

I wish I had your optimism, I'm sure there's tax havens out there without an extradition agreement with the UK.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

David McWilliams in the FT rubbished the idea that Ireland would be decimated by No Deal. It's just Brexiteer propaganda (which they actually seem to believe themselves).

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

The idea that Johnson would call the election first, leaves the EU and then the election is held (there's a six week gap between calling the election and it being held).

But to call an election does he but need to (call and) lose a vote of no confidence in himself/ have a 2/3rds vote for an early election?
Would it not be in the interests of Labour to say " let's wait a few weeks for the good of the country"?

Spanish Eyes

J Mysterio wrote: »

I simply cant wait untill this little weasel is done. He is gloating, thinks he is untouchable.

https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1164760773375090690

Once Brexit is over and people realise what they have done, the recriminations - the inquisition - begins. Justice has been deferred in this crisis and it will come.

You may be correct for the future fallout, but for now, the sunny upland unicorn utopia beckons for those who think Arlene and the ERG are great and support them without question.

I am in awe of a country that has handed over jurisdiction of the UK to ten DUP and how ever many of the ERG.

That is where they are at really. I think. Oh and the survival of the Tories to the detriment of the Brexit Party.

Party before country again, as always. Sad times.

Headshot

Strazdas wrote: »

David McWilliams in the FT rubbished the idea that Ireland would be decimated by No Deal. It's just Brexiteer propaganda (which they actually seem to believe themselves).

Just reading it now.

Fascinating read. I never knew that little old Ireland remains the UK’s fifth largest export market and UK exports more to Ireland than it does to China

10000maniacs

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Once again, this stupid Brexiter's nonsense is not challenged by the BBC.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.indy100.com/article/suella-braverman-irish-border-brexit-radio-4-australia-9075961%3famp

Wondered it be great if there was no border in Ireland, like Australia.

You have to realise that the Radio 4 morning slot guys are all brexiters. Remember John Humphies trying to blindside Helen McEntee with lies about Irish exports to the Uk and Helen sucker punching him expertly.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1164940221928083457

Realistic, operational and compatible...


I think prepare for no deal.

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who cares, only the easily deluded.

I genuinely believe Johnson made a hames of his Berlin/Paris trip. The onus is now firmly on him.

He has navigated from 'not negotiating until the backstop is dropped' to having to go (technically begging) to Europe and coming home with 30 days to come up with credible alternatives.

I wouldn't confuse what is said during press conferences with the real discussions. Bojo was left in no doubt that the EU is not the least interested in changing the WA. He can say what he likes for his domestic audience.

FrancieBrady

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't confuse what is said during press conferences with the real discussions. Bojo was left in no doubt that the EU is not the least interested in changing the WA. He can say what he likes for his domestic audience.

I know. That is why he made a total hames of it.