Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes.

For there to be no infrastructure on the island of Ireland the UK would need to be in the CU and SM.

That's why the backstop is essential.

Well, yes.

But they only need to be the CU/SM in those aspects of the SM and the CU that affect the All Ireland economy and the GFA. For example, agriculture is a big issue, particularly animal husbandry, but the motor assembly business is not and grape growing and wine production not so much.

The obvious solution is a united Ireland, or failing that, a CU and SM border in the Irish Sea. There really is no other solution.

Now having said that:

1. Exports from NI to GB are of no interest to the EU so they can do as they like. [60% to 70% go through Dublin Port).

2. Imports from GB to NI is a different story. Currently, SPS matters are already dealt with by inspections at Larne (currently @ 10%) and that should continue, perhaps at 100%. That would allow the agriculture aspects of the SM/CU to not require border control, as long as the UK agrees NI stays compliant. (So no Chlorinated chicken or hormone beef). Milk, pigs and lambs can then cross the NI/Ireland border unhindered.

3. VAT is a major problem, as exports from the EU gain a VAT refund, and would cause a significant loss to the Irish Gov. The current all Ireland VAT scheme needs to be maintained to prevent the VAT carousel VAT fraud. This has not been discussed anywhere as far as I can see. Vat is much more significant than tariffs. (23% vs a few percent).

Could the UK Gov agree to some or all of these points?

Kermit.de.frog

Picking and choosing products to be unchecked is not a guarantee either.

For example it's rumoured Nissan are scoping out sites in Cork. That may be true or false.

But what if it's true and a factory opened? Suddenly you do need to be able to carry out additional checks.

My take on this is in order to have the cast iron certainty we need than NI to all intents and purposes needs to remain part of EU market with checks at the ports.

I don't see how there can be a guarantee without that.

J Mysterio

Tusk ahead of Bojo meeting in Biarritz

Speaking ahead of his meeting with Mr Johnson, Mr Tusk said: "He will be the third British Conservative prime minister with whom I will discuss Brexit.

"The EU was always open to co-operation when David Cameron wanted to avoid Brexit, when Theresa May wanted to avoid a no-deal Brexit and we will also be ready now to hold serious talks with Prime Minister Johnson.

"One thing I will not co-operate on is no deal. I still hope that Prime Minster Johnson will not like to go down in history as 'Mr No Deal'.

"We are willing to listen to ideas that are operational, realistic and acceptable to all member states including Ireland, if and when the UK government is ready to put them on the table."

UK Independent

CelticRambler

Meanwhile, the Irish Independent is reporting that

" ... I have seen the way these Brussels negotiations work,” he said. Mr Johnson added that EU agreements were “always on the steps of the court”.

Emm. Did he miss that chapter where the negotiations came to a conclusion, and an agreement was signed? Unfortunate use of the "steps of the court" metaphor, considering that one particular court of final arbitration is one the Brexiters most hated institutions. :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

Operational - Not a chance in the next few years and operational no where else in the world (Alternative Arrangements proposal by UK)

Realistic - No. Unless you believe drones can see inside trucks and ascertain the standard of beef or whatever or satellites will do the same job

Acceptable - No. Govt position is no physical infrastructure whatsoever


It's not possible for the UK to comply with these criteria. EU has put onus of this back on Johnson.

Leroy42

David Davis was on the Telegraph Brexit Podcast spouting the same rubbish, that it will all come down to the final days.

And that is where Angela's supposed "gaffe" is actually pretty important. She has removed Johnson plans to simply wind the clock down and then rush to Brussels at 11pm demanding they do something. She has got him to agree to lay the UK's final position on the table within 30 days.

The EU know they don't have any plans, they would have pushed them already if they had, but they need to ensure that the UK don't try any last minute scams to try to weasle out of it. Clearly the UK plan is to put as much pressure on the Irish government as possible, and that would involve letting the clock tick down as close to 31 Oct as possible. Angela has taken the pressure off that as any pressure they try to put on Ireland now will simply be knocked back with "We are eagerly awaiting the alternative arrangements as promised by Johnson and are ready to review the as soon as possible. Until then it is only respectful and right that we give Johnson and the UK the tie and space to undertake their work without interference".

Kermit.de.frog

I see Brexit hard man Steve Barclay is trying to shift the goal posts yesterday

Stephen Barclay, the British secretary of state for Brexit, said on Friday he still believes a Brexit agreement will be reached, if leaving the Northern Ireland issue for a later date, Finnish national broadcaster Yle reported.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Operational - Not a chance in the next few years and operational no where else in the world (Alternative Arrangements proposal by UK)

Realistic - No. Unless you believe drones can see inside trucks and ascertain the standard of beef or whatever or satellites will do the same job

Acceptable - No. Govt position is no physical infrastructure whatsoever


It's not possible for the UK to comply with these criteria. EU has put onus of this back on Johnson.

Also, has anybody in the UK actually considered what GPS of all movements actually entails? An army of drones watching everybody all the time! There are serious privacy issues involved, serious security issues. People with access to the system will know where every vehicle is, if they stop, how fast they are driving.

Nobody seems to be even considering that this 'proposal' is a massive invasion of privacy. With all the recent computer scandals (FB, CA etc) is this really an area that people are going to be comfortable with?

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Also, has anybody in the UK actually considered what GPS of all movements actually entails? An army of drones watching everybody all the time! There are serious privacy issues involved, serious security issues. People with access to the system will know where every vehicle is, if they stop, how fast they are driving.

Nobody seems to be even considering that this 'proposal' is a massive invasion of privacy. With all the recent computer scandals (FB, CA etc) is this really an area that people are going to be comfortable with?

GDPR

Strazdas

Igotadose wrote: »

Chatted with some Welsh folk at the pub last night in West Kerry. Regular visitors on holiday over the years, lovely folk, all saying that Brexit's a disaster for Wales (yes, they know Wales voted for it, blamed the retired little Englanders.) The crash in the pound is seriously impacting them, they've said, not traveling as much at all and not planning on it.

Nothing new here, obviously, though the impacts of the pound devaluation are hurting already at the 'ground level' isn't something you hear too much of. Seems like an obvious thing. And it'll only get worse.

Yes, Wales was never committed to Brexit. They have a large English population and their press is dominated by the right wing English rags. The vote to Leave there was more of a fluke.

Opinion polls say Wales has turned against Brexit in a way that the English haven't.

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

And that is where Angela's supposed "gaffe" is actually pretty important. She has removed Johnson plans to simply wind the clock down and then rush to Brussels at 11pm demanding they do something. She has got him to agree to lay the UK's final position on the table within 30 days.

The EU know they don't have any plans, they would have pushed them already if they had, but they need to ensure that the UK don't try any last minute scams to try to weasle out of it. Clearly the UK plan is to put as much pressure on the Irish government as possible, and that would involve letting the clock tick down as close to 31 Oct as possible. Angela has taken the pressure off that as any pressure they try to put on Ireland now will simply be knocked back with "We are eagerly awaiting the alternative arrangements as promised by Johnson and are ready to review the as soon as possible. Until then it is only respectful and right that we give Johnson and the UK the tie and space to undertake their work without interference".

And if it looks like no deal, the best response to any proposal is then " hmmm, some of this is very interesting - however it'll need some work - certainly more than can be done by 31 October" - presenting Johnson with a greater difficulty in blaming the EU for a no deal on 31 October.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

GDPR

This is an EU directive is it not, so if the UK leave then GDPR no longer applies?

But on the wider point, it has been mentioned that mobile phones can be used to track, or obviously GPS units can be used. But are people really going to agree to the UK government having full access to their movements at all times? Will a shipment coming from GB then need to get a GPS unit turned on when then enter NI?

What happens when the vehicle crosses the border, does the tracking stop or will the UK have access to vehicle movements from within ROI? In real time?

And if it needs to criss cross the border, as in the case of milk, what is the policy then?

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

And if it looks like no deal, the best response to any proposal is then " hmmm, some of this is very interesting - however it'll need some work - certainly more than can be done by 31 October" - presenting Johnson with a greater difficulty in blaming the EU for a no deal on 31 October.

Exactly, so Johnson is then faced with having to go No Deal or request an extension. But his own PM is based on Do or Die leave by 31 October, so he really needs to go with No Deal even though a possible deal could be achievable.

I thought TM had done badly by painting herself into ever smaller corners, but Johnson has done it on steroids.

Kermit.de.frog

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

More nonsense from Whitehall

murphaph

The EU leaders have been polite but firm. Ireland is the committed member and the UK is leaving. Ireland is the priority. President Macron used the word "indispensable" about the backstop. You can't get any more emphatic than that.

Sam Russell

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

But that cuts two ways.

EU knows the UK cannot go 'No Deal' without huge problems, and faces huge potential domestic unrest and shortages.

So who blinks first?

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

The EU will do nothing to put pressure on Ireland, it would be the end of the union. Shafting a loyal and committed member state to please a departing one, who is essentially telling the EU to eff off.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is an EU directive is it not, so if the UK leave then GDPR no longer applies?

But on the wider point, it has been mentioned that mobile phones can be used to track, or obviously GPS units can be used. But are people really going to agree to the UK government having full access to their movements at all times? Will a shipment coming from GB then need to get a GPS unit turned on when then enter NI?

What happens when the vehicle crosses the border, does the tracking stop or will the UK have access to vehicle movements from within ROI? In real time?

And if it needs to criss cross the border, as in the case of milk, what is the policy then?

If the UK crashes out, it will throw GDPR adherence into chaos regarding information flowing into Britain which will no longer be governed by GDPR.

Kermit.de.frog

Speaking to reporters on the plane to Biarritz, Mr Johnson said: "I have made it absolutely clear I don't want a no-deal Brexit.

"But I say to our friends in the EU, if they don't want a no-deal Brexit then we have got to get rid of the backstop from the treaty.

"If Donald Tusk doesn't want to go down as 'Mr no-deal Brexit' then I hope that point will be borne in mind by him too.

The sheer arrogance. If they don't want a no deal Brexit?

What is the threat they are putting up?

firemansam4

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The sheer arrogance. If they don't want a no deal Brexit?

What is the threat they are putting up?

This is all just play acting to the uk electorate, He is now in full campaign mode. This kind of stuff is just trying to pull back the Brexit party votes.

Only question is when is the election going to be called?

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire ...

What wire? :pac:

"Brexit Day" was 29th March 2019. Then Britain blinked, and a new date was set for 22nd May. Then Britain blinked again and another new date was set for 31st October.

Regardless, therefore, of what the True Believers think, the only blinkers in the game (other than the ones they're wearing) are the British, and they're the ones who can't seem to bring themselves to cross the line that they themselves have drawn in the sands of the English Channel.

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

The EU will do nothing to put pressure on Ireland, it would be the end of the union. Shafting a loyal and committed member state to please a departing one, who is essentially telling the EU to eff off.

Not only a stupid idea internally- also a stupid idea externally for future negotiations.

In reality this is aimed at chloroforming wavering MPs until it is too late.

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

They tried this before and it didn't work. I doubt it will work this time. This was all covered in the documentary linked. Davis even said to Barnier this will be the plan and he is saying it again. My post earlier pointed this out only bu accident really. But the tactic that Davis tried before he quit and May tried is being repeated.

The response from the EU and Ireland will be the same. We need the single market more than we need the UK, so if they want to leave it will hurt but compromising on the single market will hurt more. If the UK wants no-deal they will be the ones as the red lines are still there, Johnson stating they will leave the customs union and single market, but he also confirmed he doesn't want a border. This is not compatible and we are really in the same place, only the PM on the UK side has changed.

Here is my post highlighting the portions that are important regarding the UK strategy.

Varta

Enzokk wrote: »

They tried this before and it didn't work. I doubt it will work this time. This was all covered in the documentary linked. Davis even said to Barnier this will be the plan and he is saying it again. My post earlier pointed this out only bu accident really. But the tactic that Davis tried before he quit and May tried is being repeated.

The response from the EU and Ireland will be the same. We need the single market more than we need the UK, so if they want to leave it will hurt but compromising on the single market will hurt more. If the UK wants no-deal they will be the ones as the red lines are still there, Johnson stating they will leave the customs union and single market, but he also confirmed he doesn't want a border. This is not compatible and we are really in the same place, only the PM on the UK side has changed.

Here is my post highlighting the portions that are important regarding the UK strategy.

It's a war of words and the heavy shells have just started raining in. He is planning for an election all right, but he hopes to go to the electorate with the Backstop gone. If the Backstop is dropped or amended in any way, that's the moment he will call the election and go to the country as the man who got the EU to capitulate and drop the backstop. However, I cannot see the EU dropping the Backstop.

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Britain wants to take this to the wire because they think the EU will put pressure on Ireland and they may be right in the end.

It will be a real test of solidarity in the EU. If it fails and Ireland is pressured to accept something that means a physical border ultimately then public opinion will turn much more against the EU and rightly so.

What would the point of the EU be for us if we could simply be bullied by Britain in to accepting whatever is best for them?

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1164878905649618945

Thing is, Ireland could just veto any deal for the British.

It's not really in the EU's interest to allow Britain to dictate the terms, or allow them to break up the EU.

Britain again, are overestimating their power, all they really have are lies about trade (with Ireland), German car industry no nonsense, a belief they are funding Europe and a whole lot of nationalist bluster and obnoxious smirks.


What they easily want to forget, is that the deadline had already passed, I don't remember the EU dealing with them against our interests.


It's why I was against the original extension and any new extension.

It's essentially appeasement.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is an EU directive is it not, so if the UK leave then GDPR no longer applies?

Applies to any company that holds any data on a EU citizen; that would include UK. There's a court case if it should apply world wide (i.e. not only forgotten in EU but in all searches) with French state & Google; result due 20 something September from the EU court.

But on the wider point, it has been mentioned that mobile phones can be used to track, or obviously GPS units can be used. But are people really going to agree to the UK government having full access to their movements at all times? Will a shipment coming from GB then need to get a GPS unit turned on when then enter NI?

And let's not talk about GPS spoofing with a rooted phone for example. It's not something that it's workable in practice.

What happens when the vehicle crosses the border, does the tracking stop or will the UK have access to vehicle movements from within ROI? In real time?

It's UK; they will keep monitoring whole claiming they do not if for no other reason to be able to get a pat on the head by the NSA.

And if it needs to criss cross the border, as in the case of milk, what is the policy then?

Well since it's milk and assuming crash out it would not cross at the first point most likely but yea; it's a utter mess in general.

Jizique

Varta wrote: »

It's a war of words and the heavy shells have just started raining in. He is planning for an election all right, but he hopes to go to the electorate with the Backstop gone. If the Backstop is dropped or amended in any way, that's the moment he will call the election and go to the country as the man who got the EU to capitulate and drop the backstop. However, I cannot see the EU dropping the Backstop.

Paywalled, but presume it is a load of bollocks

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/24/eu-has-stepped-back-brink-knows-cannot-risk-no-deal-brexit/

fash

fash wrote: »

Not only a stupid idea internally- also a stupid idea externally for future negotiations.

In reality this is aimed at chloroforming wavering MPs until it is too late.

May have spoke too soon:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1164901036466872320
Mujtaba is good and not a delusional Brexiter

Varta

fash wrote: »

May have spoke too soon:

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1164901036466872320
Mujtaba is good and not a delusional Brexiter

No, you haven't spoken too soon. Whitehall source = propaganda machine. There is no corroborative evidence that Merkel said anything like this. It is a war of words.