Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

cryptocurrency

You could see in Tusks face yesterday that he was beat. It’s all a face saving exercise now so they need to plot how they can paint this compromise on the WA without it looking like they completely folded. Boris bypassing the EU and going straight to Macron and Merkel just shown the EU up as fairly powerless compared to national leaders when it comes down to it. You can’t help but feel this is going to go down as a pivotal moment in the end of the EU as we know it.

54and56

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

It would happily stab you in the back if it felt that it was in its interest.

Pure baseless conjecture.

I know it's hard for Brexiteers to get their head around but the EU won't be shafting Ireland because unlike the UK they understand the benefit of solidarity and Ireland won't be agreeing to any deal which doesn't contain the backstop as we place a higher value on protecting the GFA than facilitating a Brexit which would threaten it.

Brexit is 100% a British decision. If it chooses no deal over the deal it's government negotiated and agreed it will own the resulting chaos.

Lemming

Forty Seven wrote: »

It might help if everyone here didn't assume I am a leaver just because I don't like unfettered immigration. When Limerick looks like Bradford I'm sure the Irish viewpoint will be the same. I can be a remainer and not be for open borders.

I appreciate that I am a few pages back playing catch-up, but I've seen this sentiment before - not from yourself per se - and the places cited, usually Bradford and Birmingham (i.e. large Asian/Muslim communities), are not EU migration issues; they are rest-of-world migration issues of which the British government has always had direct control over, EU be damned.

CelticRambler

Forty Seven wrote: »

I will have to deal with being a Scot in a tiny insignificant country if the majority vote for that ...

Well yes, if you think your country is insignificant, you will have to deal with it in your own way.

Or, if you're referring to Scotland regaining its independence, you could subsequently cast a vote for Scotland to join the EU. As a member of arguably the largest, strongest socio-political union on the planet, you'd no longer be "tiny" and "insignificant".

Any doubts about that, ask your nearest Brexiter whether they currently think Ireland is "insignificant".

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You could see in Tusks face yesterday that he was beat. It’s all a face saving exercise now so they need to plot how they can paint this compromise on the WA without it looking like they completely folded. Boris bypassing the EU and going straight to Macron and Merkel just shown the EU up as fairly powerless compared to national leaders when it comes down to it. You can’t help but feel this is going to go down as a pivotal moment in the end of the EU as we know it.

Can I assume you will accept that if there is no deal, an extension or an agreement to the backstop (even if dressed up) that it has been a humiliating defeat to the brexiter charlatans and the beginning of the end of UK?

Nody

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You could see in Tusks face yesterday that he was beat. It’s all a face saving exercise now so they need to plot how they can paint this compromise on the WA without it looking like they completely folded. Boris bypassing the EU and going straight to Macron and Merkel just shown the EU up as fairly powerless compared to national leaders when it comes down to it. You can’t help but feel this is going to go down as a pivotal moment in the end of the EU as we know it.

Sorry but rofl. Both Macron and Merkel not only got one over on Boris by forcing him to commit to deliver a report in 30 days but they also very clearly stated they will hold UK to the WA and not open anything but the political agreement. And the funniest part is by crashing out UK is strengthening Ireland's power by giving them a veto on every single deal to be struck. I strongly recommend you stop reading UK press if you wants facts over fiction because only UK press got your version as a story; the rest inc. German and French paints a very different picture which is backed up by Boris own comments if you read what he actually says no vs. a month ago.

cryptocurrency

fash wrote: »

Can I assume you will accept that if there is no deal, an extension or an agreement to the backstop (even if dressed up) that it has been a humiliating defeat to the brexiter charlatans and the beginning of the end of UK?

Extension without opening the WA agreement would be bad on Boris but all the rest will be bad on the EU. No deal will be the end of the EU as you will find the scare stories were utter tripe and that will send a clear message to all around. From where we are now and the last few weeks it’s very hard to see a downside to the position Boris has put them in. He really has the EU position looking weak.
70 days left and we will see something agreed and as I said it will be painted as a compromise by partners but in reality unless the UK fold on the CU, CM, Freedom of movement and the ECJ then it’s hard to see it as anything other then a public man shaming of the EU by the U.K.
Boris has doubled down on wanting out of these four areas and the EU have said they won’t budge on these areas...something has to give. Smart money is on the UK getting out with some “new partnership” painted as a compromise.

cryptocurrency

Nody wrote: »

Sorry but rofl. Both Macron and Merkel not only got one over on Boris by forcing him to commit to deliver a report in 30 days but they also very clearly stated they will hold UK to the WA and not open anything but the political agreement. And the funniest part is by crashing out UK is strengthening Ireland's power by giving them a veto on every single deal to be struck. I strongly recommend you stop reading UK press if you wants facts over fiction because only UK press got your version as a story; the rest inc. German and French paints a very different picture which is backed up by Boris own comments if you read what he actually says no vs. a month ago.

EU have repeated and repeated that the WA is closed. Boris heads to Merkel and Macron direct and told them direct that this can’t be stopped and all of a sudden the door is slightly open. This is optics and political theatre but the reality is Boris ignoring the EU and heading to the real leaders of France and Germany just shows that the EU will fold. I am not one for waiting for something to happen before I accept the reality, it’s obvious now. It seems some are still under the illusion that Boris will fail in his 30 day target but in reality by the summit in October a fudge or compromise with the UK will be reached. I will not fall for all the political language of both sides “concessions “. If the U.K. is on the path to leaving the CU, SM, ECJ and freedom of movement by October 31st then it can be seen as nothing else other then the U.K. man shaming the EU.

54and56

Forty Seven wrote: »

We are leaving a union that no longer suits us. I was a remain voter but watching the last few years of nonsense has me wishing we just crash out on the 31st. This is shared by almost everyone I speak to. Brexit fatigue has changed the mood here drastically, watching discussions like this and the tone used by participants just enforce this view. Why would we want to stay now we are clearly not welcome? This won't end well but people no longer care. We just want it done. Come what may.

Thank you for the honest and candid post.

As someone who is an Anglophile and admires the UK for many things (having lived in London for 7 years) I would just like to point out to you that you shouldn't conflate criticism of Brexit and in particular hard core right wing Brexiteers with dislike of the UK or people not wanting the UK to remain in the EU.

Both sides and all participants including the EU27 are all fully fatigued by Brexit so things are being said in frustration which need to be read in that context.

The UK leaving the EU will be a regret but if the UK genuinely doesn't want to stay and influence change then it should indeed leave but to do so in such an antagonistic manner as it seems hell bent on doing is a huge mistake which will have negative ramifications for a very long time to come.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Extension without opening the WA agreement would be bad on Boris but all the rest will be bad on the EU. No deal will be the end of the EU as you will find the scare stories were utter tripe and that will send a clear message to all around. From where we are now and the last few weeks it’s very hard to see a downside to the position Boris has put them in. He really has the EU position looking weak.

It's interesting that the world, the UK government internal reports, every economist of regard and (e.g.) the money markets disagree with you - perhaps you'll make a killing betting on Sterling.

70 days left and we will see something agreed and as I said it will be painted as a compromise by partners but in reality unless the UK fold on the CU, CM, Freedom of movement and the ECJ then it’s hard to see it as anything other then a public man shaming of the EU by the U.K.

That's some goal post shifting there - I'm sure you'll agree if you are being honest that a no deal, any deal based on the WA or similar or an extension are all humiliating defeats for the Brexiters.

Boris has doubled down on wanting out of these four areas and the EU have said they won’t budge on these areas...something has to give. Smart money is on the UK getting out with some “new partnership” painted as a compromise.

want to put a bet on anything other than a humiliating and embarrassing end to the UK being agreed?

cryptocurrency

54&56 wrote: »

Thank you for the honest and candid post.

As someone who is an Anglophile and admires the UK for many things (having lived in London for 7 years) I would just like to point out to you that you shouldn't conflate criticism of Brexit and in particular hard core right wing Brexiteers with dislike of the UK or people not wanting the UK to remain in the EU.

Both sides and all participants including the EU27 are all fully fatigued by Brexit so things are being said in frustration which need to be read in that context.

The UK leaving the EU will be a regret but if the UK genuinely doesn't want to stay and influence change then it should indeed leave but to do so in such an antagonistic manner as it seems hell bent on doing is a huge mistake which will have negative ramifications for a very long time to come.

In fairness to the UK they have repeatedly tried to drive change in the EU but the EU didn’t budge from its path. It will take nations like the UK leaving and Italy or Poland publicly disobedience before it wakes up, the smaller nations just get ignored and walked on.
The fact the the fear mongering about the UK leaving is about to be seen as nonsense will just speed up the start of the next wave of challenges to the EU from within.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

In fairness to the UK they have repeatedly tried to drive change in the EU but the EU didn’t budge from its path. It will take nations like the UK leaving and Italy or Poland publicly disobedience before it wakes up, the smaller nations just get ignored and walked on.

Is the EU listening to the small states too much or the big states ("5th (or maybe 7th) biggest economy") too much? You are (perhaps as expected) contradicting yourself.

The fact the the fear mongering about the UK leaving is about to be seen as nonsense will just speed up the start of the next wave of challenges to the EU from within.

Interesting that to date the UK experience has scared of eurosceptic parties from all around Europe. It looks like the UK will be a terrible warning not a good example. Again let's see what happens.

cryptocurrency

fash wrote: »

That's some goal post shifting there - I'm sure you'll agree if you are being honest that a no deal, any deal based on the WA or similar or an extension are all humiliating defeats for the Brexiters.

want to put a bet on anything other than a humiliating and embarrassing end to the UK being agreed?

No deal is a win for brexiteers as the claimed collapse won’t happen at all. No deal is a complete knock out of the EU.
Any WA that doesn’t give the UK a clear path to leaving the CU, SM, ECJ and freedom of movement will not be good, doesn’t need to be straight away but the path to transition needs to be there.

£39 billion or £45 billion, the money doesn’t matter at all... give the EU the money if it makes the transition smooth but the UK needs to be on a path to leaving the four red lines mentioned above.

If that is where the UK finds itself then the EU has lost this badly.

One thing that will certainly not happen is your claims that the UK will be humiliated, it was humiliated under May and it was that which has led to the current administration and the bullish push back.

Strazdas

Forty Seven wrote: »

Completely agree. The average voter is not getting it but the issue is an open wound that resulted in brexit.

If immigration had been dealt with this would not have resulted but Merkel opening her arms in 2015 was the straw that broke the camels back. There was no way the wave of migration could be contained in Germany (as Ireland will find to its cost in the coming years) and so the UK people pulled the plug.

The fact that they were wrong and misinformed changes nothing.

Immigration and EU membership are two completely different subjects. It was the liars / spivs of the British press who started linking the two from 2013 onward.

Leaving the EU won't make a blind bit of difference to immigration numbers (an unwelcome fact the average UK xenophobe hasn't clocked yet).

J Mysterio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

In fairness to the UK they have repeatedly tried to drive change in the EU but the EU didn’t budge from its path. It will take nations like the UK leaving and Italy or Poland publicly disobedience before it wakes up, the smaller nations just get ignored and walked on.
The fact the the fear mongering about the UK leaving is about to be seen as nonsense will just speed up the start of the next wave of challenges to the EU from within.

'The smaller nations are walked on' :pac:

Are you saying the UK is a small nation now?
I think you will find that the UK are more than happy to walk all over Ireland, but it is the power that Ireland - a small nation - has as part of the EU club that has prevented this.

The whole point of the EU stance in negotiations is that they need to respect its small nations, otherwise what's the point? The UK seem to struggle with this, particularly as they are quite used to walking on smaller nations and ignoring them. Lets not forget, first and foremost, the UK is England + then the rest.

Forty Seven

Strazdas wrote: »

Immigration and EU membership are two completely different subjects. It was the liars / spivs of the British press who started linking the two from 2013 onward.

Leaving the EU won't make a blind bit of difference to immigration numbers (an unwelcome fact the average UK xenophobe hasn't clocked yet).

Not wanting immigration is not xenophobia so you can bugger right off with the attempt to bypass debate with the racist card.

The rest of your post just reflects what I have been saying. Consistently, for pages.

cryptocurrency

J Mysterio wrote: »

'The smaller nations are walked on' :pac:

Are you saying the UK is a small nation now?
I think you will find that the UK are more than happy to walk all over Ireland, but it is the power that Ireland - a small nation - has as part of the EU club that has prevented this.

The whole point of the EU stance in negotiations is that they need to respect its small nations, otherwise what's the point? The UK seem to struggle with this, particularly as they are quite used to walking on smaller nations and ignoring them. Lets not forget, first and foremost, the UK is England + then the rest.

But surely the last few days has shown that by the UK publicly ignoring the EUs position and going straight to the organ grinders they suddenly had spun the whole thing on its head. What message does this send to Russia, China , Brazil and India and the rest on who really matters in Europe?

Putin even scoffed at the importance of the G7 to Macrons face last week.

Boris getting Germany and France to agree to opening the WA after all the EU said has made a total mockery of the EUs authority. Can’t take the group seriously now at all.

54and56

upupup wrote: »

Large scale Herd mentality could happen in any country in the world including Ireland

As I personally witnessed in a little village in Cork back in the 80's when throngs of people swore a piece of concrete was moving!!

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

But surely the last few days has shown that by the UK publicly ignoring the EUs position and going straight to the organ grinders they suddenly had spun the whole thing on its head. What message does this send to Russia, China , Brazil and India and the rest on who really matters in Europe?

Putin even scoffed at the importance of the G7 to Macrons face last week.

Boris getting Germany and France to agree to opening the WA after all the EU said has made a total mockery of the EUs authority. Can’t take the group seriously now at all.

Some fantasy stuff going on there ^ in fairness.

CelticRambler

Forty Seven wrote: »

Not wanting immigration is not xenophobia ... The rest of your post just reflects what I have been saying. Consistently, for pages.

Same as the rest of us: the control of immigration is a power reserved to the UK goverment, and has nothing to do with EU membership.

The same UK government has stated in its Brexit impact statements that leaving the EU and rejecting Freedom of Movement will reduce the number of qualified EU professional migrants and increase the number of unskilled non-European migrants.

Reference to recent migration data will show that EU professionals (teachers, doctors, nurses, lawyers, research scientists, etc), tradesmen and farm labourers have already started leaving or stopped coming to the UK.

Reference to public pronouncements by e.g. India will show that the prices for any trade deal will be lots and lots and lots of visas for non-Europeans.

Is that the kind of Brexit you want (i.e. are too fatigued to oppose)?

Kermit.de.frog

Tusk says EU wants an alternative to the all UK backstop that is "immediately operational".

Reading between the lines the only option that is operational on day one is at the NI ports.

Back to square one and the NI only solution.

Lackadaisical

Dropping all the rhetoric and the spin for a moment, there are two facts consistently being ignored and missed and these have nothing to do with a debate about pro or anti immigration:

1. Non-EU immigration (from countries outside the EU) are a purely UK issue. Those rules are exclusively in UK Government hands and have never been an EU competency.

2. The freedom of movement in the EU is subject to T&C's which do not just allow you to move somewhere and claim benefits or even get rights to live there if you have no job, no study reason etc. You are entitled to move there to seek work and have your own domestic dole payments etc transferred while seeking work

The majority of EU countries actually do require you to register when you move to their countries. I had to provide a serious amount of information when I moved to Belgium and Spain for example.

All countries (except the UK) also require that you present an EHIC card if present on a short term basis or, subscribe to the national social security system if you're a permanent resident. The UK entirely on its own bat decided not to enforce any of that, yet it blamed the EU and claims all sorts of burdens are being imposed on the NHS by the EU?!

There are loads of safe guards and protections within the EU freedom of movement system, if the UK opted to not implement any of them, they can't really moan about the EU .

If the UK public are concerned about immigration from elsewhere they've always been able to regulate that with their own domestic law as there's no single European immigration policy. Even within the Schengen area, the common Visa is only applicable for short visits, not work and not long term status or settlement.

So frankly this anti immigration rhetoric is a complete crock or at least is blaming the EU for domestic policies.

You then add in the other false dichotomy that claims somehow global trade isn't possible within the EU, while the UK has been happily trading globally, leveraging EU scale to get free trade deals (many of which it drove!) AND having completely unhindered access to the world's largest consumer and b2b market - the EU / EEA.

They're charging at windmills and most of the media and commentators are failing to fact check anything, leading to debates about issues that have nothing to do with the EU.

cryptocurrency

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Tusk says EU wants an alternative to the all UK backstop that is "immediately operational".

Reading between the lines the only option that is operational on day one is at the NI ports.

Back to square one and the NI only solution.

What about ports in wales and Ireland ?

Calina

cryptocurrency wrote: »

But surely the last few days has shown that by the UK publicly ignoring the EUs position and going straight to the organ grinders they suddenly had spun the whole thing on its head. What message does this send to Russia, China , Brazil and India and the rest on who really matters in Europe?

Putin even scoffed at the importance of the G7 to Macrons face last week.

Boris getting Germany and France to agree to opening the WA after all the EU said has made a total mockery of the EUs authority. Can’t take the group seriously now at all.

Both France and Germany made it clear that change in the political declaration was possible but both made it clear that the withdrawal agreement was closed. This has been the position of EU-27 since long before Johnson ascended to his God given rightful place as PM of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The problem here is that the message that you have received does not exist and you are not clearly informed by reality but by the UK's continued wishful thinking. The comments about organ grinders are pitiful and frankly lack understanding.

CelticRambler

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a win for brexiteers as the claimed collapse won’t happen at all.

Can you be a bit more specific about what you mean by "the claimed collapse" ? Just so we can look back at this thread in the future and acknowledge that you were right ... :rolleyes:

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Boris getting Germany and France to agree to opening the WA after all the EU said has made a total mockery of the EUs authority.

Oooh - when did Germany and France agree to re-open the WA? I missed that. Unless you're referring to the EU stating (months ago) that of course the WA could be revisited at any time, provided Britain dropped one or more of the "red lines" that made this particular WA the only possible solution. Or have you selectively re-interpreted Merkel and Macron telling Johnson that the WA is there on the table, waiting to be signed, unless he wants to come back with some realistic, acceptable and operational alternative arrangements?

cryptocurrency

Calina wrote: »

Both France and Germany made it clear that change in the political declaration was possible but both made it clear that the withdrawal agreement was closed. This has been the position of EU-27 since long before Johnson ascended to his God given rightful place as PM of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The problem here is that the message that you have received does not exist and you are not clearly informed by reality but by the UK's continued wishful thinking. The comments about organ grinders are pitiful and frankly lack understanding.

And the UK has made it clear the backstop goes or no deal. The political declaration doesn’t change that as the backstop is in the WA. The UK won’t back down from the statement on the removal of the backstop but the EU will and try and make it out that the circumstances have changed.

CelticRambler

cryptocurrency wrote: »

And the UK has made it clear the backstop goes or no deal.

And the EU has made it clear that "no deal, it is, then."

So that's a win for the UK, in your book?

cryptocurrency

CelticRambler wrote: »

Can you be a bit more specific about what you mean by "the claimed collapse" ? Just so we can look back at this thread in the future and acknowledge that you were right ... :rolleyes:



Oooh - when did Germany and France agree to re-open the WA? I missed that. Unless you're referring to the EU stating (months ago) that of course the WA could be revisited at any time, provided Britain dropped one or more of the "red lines" that made this particular WA the only possible solution. Or have you selectively re-interpreted Merkel and Macron telling Johnson that the WA is there on the table, waiting to be signed, unless he wants to come back with some realistic, acceptable and operational alternative arrangements?

What red lines do you expect them to drop?

This is all theatre as the EU positions itself for the ultimate climb down.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No deal is a win for brexiteers as the claimed collapse won’t happen at all. No deal is a complete knock out of the EU.

If that were there case why is the UK government engaging in "project fear/reality" in its internal briefings? Why are the Brexiters looking to blame the EU for the no deal? Why has Sterling fallen? If you believe it will be so amazing why don't you change your username to "Sterling" from cryptocurrency?

If that is where the UK finds itself then the EU has lost this badly.

The EU will only be "humiliated" if the UK gets to have its cake and eat it. Anything else is a humiliation for the UK - proving it is a non entity and discrediting its politics.

One thing that will certainly not happen is your claims that the UK will be humiliated, it was humiliated under May and it was that which has led to the current administration and the bullish push back.

Again if that is the case, why are they looking to blame the EU for no deal and why are they waiting to leave? They can leave at any time.
Why did Johnson say no discussions with the EU or other EU states unless the backstop was removed but then he slinked back to Europe.

CelticRambler

cryptocurrency wrote: »

What red lines do you expect them to drop?

Any of them. Theresa May drew them without any thought as to the inherent contradictions that they'd create, Boris Johnson could do the intelligent thing and erase one or more so that any of the dozen-or-so options on the "Barnier staircase" would become available.