Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Calina

Forty Seven wrote: »

Your lemon pie analogy is not relevant except perhaps if I were starving. Then I would eat it as I have no choice, just as I will accept the result of Brexit. I have no choice.

Why do you have no choice? A million people march in London because they believe they have a choice.

Many people have not given up. But you appear to have.

Forty Seven

CelticRambler wrote: »

You'll struggle to feed half the country if the immigrants who, up to now, pick and process most of the UK's agricultural output don't turn up for work. As it is, fruit and veg farmers in the south east of England (I know - a long way from you) have said that they will need to bring people in from Africa and Asia to replace the Europeans who've been chased out of Britain.

How are your economic concerns addressed by replacing European immigrants with Africans and Asians?

What they need to do is raise wages, not import a cheap workforce living in squalor.

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe you should ask the question as to why you "need" immigrants in the first instance, can anyone seriously answer that question.
Why an immigrant and not locals. Is a country too mean to educate the local children with the right skills for these jobs, or do they prefer to poach them from elsewhere.
Indigenous peoples with the right education are more than capable of doing any job that immigrants do, but at a higher cost and growth would be limited to the population.

Because in many cases the local population don't want to do the job. Let's take picking veggies; it's available to UK people but the number who actually take up on the job offer, let alone manages to stick around, is abysmally low because it's actually hard work. Yet somehow all those eastern Europeans can manage it but the UK people can not.

Let's take working in a coffee shop; there was an interview about two years ago were two young (early 20s) women were asked why they voted for Brexit. Usual guaff of no immigrants "like that polish girl over there serving coffee". So when asked would they take her job then the answer was "Of course not; it's beneath us". You can keep going through the list but in many cases the jobs the "evil foreigners" take are either jobs locals refuse to do, specialized jobs that there is simply not enough local talent (be that a specific system programmer or a Bangladesh chef to do Bangladesh cuisine and dishes) and simply put people not being bothered to get the right training/education expecting others to deliver it to them.

If you look at the average EU citizen in UK they work an EU citizen pay more tax and uses less benefits than a UK citizen at adult age implying not lower wages but higher wages (to correlate with higher taxes paid). Hence the claim it's all about lowering the salaries etc. is a false story; EU citizens earn more, pay more taxes and contribute more to the UK society than a UK person does. Short of claiming that other countries can train their citizens better there's a reason hidden in there that's an uncomfortable truth for the UK; non EU citizens come over to work while UK citizens can't be bothered and blame "evil foreigners taking our jobs". You don't pay foreigners more than locals; usually it's the other way around yet the foreigners earn more, wonder why...

Forty Seven

Calina wrote: »

Why do you have no choice? A million people march in London because they believe they have a choice.

Many people have not given up. But you appear to have.

I gave up in 2003 after helping organise the anti war rally in Glasgow. I believe the national number is still the largest ever protest in the UK. It changed nothing.

I'm not prepared to resort to violence and that is what it means these days to affect change by 'protest'. If you can point to a non violent protest that changed anything recently then I'm all ears.

kowloon

Forty Seven, you're about to hit 47 posts, make it special.

Nody

Forty Seven wrote: »

Medicines are a red herring. This whole stockpiling nonsense seems overdone. Most medicines are tarriff free under WTO and our trade with the EU is almost equal so I doubt this will be too much of an issue. After all, the EU needs our output too.

Except specialized medication such as radioactive materials can not be exported because UK is not recognized as an authorized nation to have access to it (no longer a member of EURATOM).

Food shortages, maybe but we will not starve. We won't even go hungry, we may have limited choice but I'm not concerned.

This is the most likely cause of riots when the shelfs show empty and will drive some very nasty behavior. When you make certain foods (fresh veggies etc.) an exclusive for the rich who will brag about it while showing empty shelves it becomes an issue quickly. You see the problem is not only the short term disruption of fresh veggies etc. but the longer term issues of all those interrupted supply chains. The biggest impact however will be in the price increases purely from that disruption combined with a tanking pound which could easily see 30%+ price increases; that is going to hit people were it hurts, their wallets.

Forty Seven

Nody wrote: »

Because in many cases the local population don't want to do the job. Let's take picking veggies; it's available to UK people but the number who actually take up on the job offer, let alone manages to stick around, is abysmally low because it's actually hard work. Yet somehow all those eastern Europeans can manage it but the UK people can not.

Let's take working in a coffee shop; there was an interview about two years ago were two young (early 20s) women were asked why they voted for Brexit. Usual guaff of no immigrants "like that polish girl over there serving coffee". So when asked would they take her job then the answer was "Of course not; it's beneath us". You can keep going through the list but in many cases the jobs the "evil foreigners" take are either jobs locals refuse to do, specialized jobs that there is simply not enough local talent (be that a specific system programmer or a Bangladesh chef to do Bangladesh cuisine and dishes) and simply put people not being bothered to get the right training/education expecting others to deliver it to them.

If you look at the average EU citizen in UK they work an EU citizen pay more tax and uses less benefits than a UK citizen at adult age implying not lower wages but higher wages (to correlate with higher taxes paid). Hence the claim it's all about lowering the salaries etc. is a false story; EU citizens earn more, pay more taxes and contribute more to the UK society than a UK person does. Short of claiming that other countries can train their citizens better there's a reason hidden in there that's an uncomfortable truth for the UK; non EU citizens come over to work while UK citizens can't be bothered and blame "evil foreigners taking our jobs". You don't pay foreigners more than locals; usually it's the other way around yet the foreigners earn more, wonder why...

If there were less immigrants we would have cheaper housing and those jobs would become viable for those who aren't living in poverty in order to build a home back in their country. There are plenty UK workers working in those jobs. I was one of them for a long, long time. It is not viable to start a family here and live securely on those wages. If you are just here for the time it takes to buy a house in Poland then it is not so bad. As for fruit picking, this is seasonal work, it used to be done by children. I myself used to take the berry bus on my summer holidays. It is not a feasible career but could be allowed under a temporary work visa I suppose.

Forty Seven

kowloon wrote: »

Forty Seven, you're about to hit 47 posts, make it special.

The front lawn is done, I'm just waiting for the back to dry out.

prunudo

Maybe riots is a bit extreme but anyone who says empty shelves won't lead to unrest must have forgotten the scenes of bread deliveries to empty stores during storm Emma. Doesn't take long for things to escalate.

trellheim

there is so much dead catting around its loony tunes at the mo, and going to get worse soon


Key unasked/unanswered question for me right now and every time I ask it brexiteers hedge like crazy (those who know anything or are smart ) :

-> Assume Backstop sorted out tomorrow - all the bs from the Johnson camp says thats the big thing, but they have said NOWHERE WA minus is a deal they will push/ERG are onside for , so whats the actual idea here ? is it to get a minor concession to get WA over the line, or is it to completely reopen WA

( assume EU27 leaders have the same headscratcher here too )

Since Labour will whip against WA (not backstop related, its been a consistent position for them, and ERG have always said WA dead as a dodo) I can't help this is all a massive ruse to get no-deal over the line and run the clock down to stop rebel tories and labour doing an A50 extension mandate

rogue-entity

cryptocurrency wrote: »

...I am only stating what will happen and not what I want to happen.

With respect, the statements put forward by yourself imply a strong nationalistic and anti-EU position that suggests your points are biased in favour of that position rather than "what will happen". Therefore I invite you to provide evidence that supports your arguments.

Not being an expert in economics or international trade, I cannot say "what will happen" with complete certainty once the UK exits from the EU. I can say that I believe in the short term they will feel economic pain and this will affect ordinary citizens far more than those who are comfortably well off. Many may be willing to accept that as a necessary price for 'independence' and 'national sovereignty' but I know many who are angry at losing their rights and freedoms, angry at being hit with the prospect of economic hardship (even in the short term) and for the few who can, wasting no time in applying for Irish passports to secure the aforementioned rights and freedoms.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

We all know that the economic Armageddon of no deal is utter nonsense.

Do you have evidence to suppor this claim, to state "we all know" implies it to be self evident but I respectfully disagree based on the information provided in, among other things, a recent UK government dossier.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Freedom of movement - one of the biggest reasons behind the vote. This one can’t be changed. That is the single market.

And yet this has no impact on non-EU immigration which is something UK voters appeared to care more about:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/non-eu-migration-is-what-uk-voters-care-most-about/

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Customs union - all the talk of independent trade deals has hit fever pitch and without the future ability to do these deals then the Tories are toast.

I can't see them budging on that red-line either, the vaulted UK-US trade deal or a deal with Australia both hinge on being able to deviate (particularly in the case of the US) on EU standards and regulations, a customs union would prevent that.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

ECJ - this will not be a goer either as this is one of the major reasons behind Brexit

The ECJ was anathema to the UK Home Office more than UK Voters if I recall.


While I'm of the view that the EU is better off without the UK going forward, and that the UK will suffer in the short term as a majority of its trade is hit with tariffs, the EU itself needs to maintain unity. If for no other reason than continuing to be a counter-weight to the US and Russia, neither of whom are what you could call an ally.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe you should ask the question as to why you "need" immigrants in the first instance, can anyone seriously answer that question.
Why an immigrant and not locals. Is a country too mean to educate the local children with the right skills for these jobs, or do they prefer to poach them from elsewhere.
Indigenous peoples with the right education are more than capable of doing any job that immigrants do, but at a higher cost and growth would be limited to the population.

Maybe it's just to perpetuate the infinite growth that financial economists believe we need to maintain the functioning of the current financial system.

Migration is the most natural thing in the world, not an aberration.

People move all the time, both within countries (often to cities from rural areas) and from country to country.

Brexiteers are treating immigration as if is unnatural and unwelcome and always a burden on the host country.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Migration is the most natural thing in the world, not an aberration.

People move all the time, both within countries (often to cities from rural areas) and from country to country.

Brexiteers are treating immigration as if is unnatural and unwelcome and always a burden on the host country.

I don't think the native Americans will agree with that.

rogue-entity

Forty Seven wrote: »

My problems with immigration do not come from dislike or hatred of any people. They come purely from economic concerns. We cannot feed and house half a continent and we should not have to.

If someone, say from Ireland, were to move to Scotland. They have a job, pay taxes, contribute to the economy and can afford to rent, buy or build a home - is that a bad thing?

I could agree in the case of folks coming over and not working and contributing but as it is, most folk immigrating from the EU do work hard and contribute. I'm wondering where exactly you draw your lines over who should and should not settle in the UK. It has been established that exiting the EU will not change the UK's handling of non-EU migration.

Forty Seven wrote: »

Things may be tough for a while, standard of living may drop, people expect this, they've been told repeatedly. They will be ok with it because it is what they chose. Take away that choice and you've got a whole different ball game.

And the folks, particularly those I know (including some staunch Scottish nationalists), who voted did not choose this outcome, who stand to lose cherished rights and freedoms as a result? I cannot see them being particularly happy about it

Forty Seven wrote: »

What they need to do is raise wages, not import a cheap workforce living in squalor.

Raise the wages paid to baristas and seasonal fruit pickers? They'll happily raise their prices to compensate.

Forty Seven wrote: »

If there were less immigrants we would have cheaper housing and those jobs would become viable for those who aren't living in poverty in order to build a home back in their country...

Except for those UK workers who believe the jobs are "beneath [them]", those UK workers who are only interested in higher-paying jobs which leaves a vacuum. This phenomenon is not limited to the UK but prevalent in almost every developed nation.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think the native Americans will agree with that.

Migration can certainly set off problems, but even migration from rural areas to cities within a country can present difficulties - depopulation of the rural area and increased pressure on the cities

Simply trying to ban it is no sort of a solution though (and those who suggest that the people doing the migrating are 'the problem' are being deeply unfair).

Enzokk

Forty Seven wrote: »

The front lawn is done, I'm just waiting for the back to dry out.

Not sure if you saw my question, but you mentioned EU laws that restricts the UK and the ECJ becoming an issue for your freedom. Can you cite examples of the laws that you feel is restricting you in the UK and how the ECJ is an issue when it comes to freedom.

As someone who falls under these same laws and ECJ jurisdiction I need to know if my own freedoms is at risk.

McGiver

looksee wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

Many end up camped in Calais and are now boating across the channel. Given the EUs reluctance to stop the influx on their shores I can fully understand why people would vote to leave the bloc and strengthen the border checks.

That might not be what happens but it is what people want and what they voted for.

To all the other immigration posts. Yes, I don't like third world migration. It is degrading our society and integration is not happening. No, I do not expect this to change due to brexit.

Brexit was a protest vote. It is a warning of severe dissastisfaction with our country and its leadership. It is because of immigration, nothing else. Understand this and then you can start looking for solutions europe wide. Nobody wants to leave to be poorer, nobody wants to leave to start a war. This is just a symptom of an underlying problem which has been exacerbated by Merkel opening her arms to a massive wave of third world economic migrants. It was never going to end well.

People are shooting themselves in the foot to make a point.

Meanwhile you can't have it both ways, be a remainer yet argue to leave. Claiming a middle line is feasible is nonsense, you are in the EU or you are out.

Middle line is possible - its called the Norway option. I think it is would be the best outcome for both sides.
The problem is that last time I checked, HMG, HoC and vast majority of UK population don't support it....

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Migration can certainly set off problems, but even migration from rural areas to cities within a country can present difficulties - depopulation of the rural area and increased pressure on the cities

Simply trying to ban it is no sort of a solution though (and those who suggest that the people doing the migrating are 'the problem' are being deeply unfair).

No need to "ban it", simply look to business leaders to look local for employees, it they can't find workers when there are people willing and able to work, then they're not paying enough.


Even better, they set up their business in an area of high unemployment.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No need to "ban it", simply look to business leaders to look local for employees, it they can't find workers when there are people willing and able to work, then they're not paying enough.


Even better, they set up their business in an area of high unemployment.

Godswallop, non native workers will always be needed. We don't physically have enough workers in this country to meet demand. It's not a salary thing.

Were do you come up with this untrustworthy stuff.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

No need to "ban it", simply look to business leaders to look local for employees, it they can't find workers when there are people willing and able to work, then they're not paying enough.

Even better, they set up their business in an area of high unemployment.

What you get with higher wages is higher prices. That's not a problem if you are happy to take the hit.

I'm sure there are coffee shops in areas of high unemployment. Briefly. Not so sure that farms can move there businesses in that way, but I suppose where there's a will...

Seth Brundle

Forty Seven wrote: »

Thankfully I don't read your book. I get my definitions from a dictionary. My problems with immigration do not come from dislike or hatred of any people. They come purely from economic concerns. We cannot feed and house half a continent and we should not have to.

Who do you think was trying to force the UK to house and feed half a continent?
The UK simply did not use the laws at it's disposal to stop foreigners coming in and staying.
Your assertion that the EU was forcing mass immigration is completely wrong and part of the pro-leave lies!

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who do you think was trying to force the UK to house and feed half a continent?
The UK simply did not use the laws at it's disposal to stop foreigners coming in and staying.
Your assertion that the EU was forcing mass immigration is completely wrong and part of the pro-leave lies!

And back to the nonsense about EU migrant workers being a drain on resources and a burden on the host country. They never contribute anything positive and the UK are doing them a huge favour by "taking them in" (as if they were refugees or asylum seekers).

briany

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who do you think was trying to force the UK to house and feed half a continent?
The UK simply did not use the laws at it's disposal to stop foreigners coming in and staying.
Your assertion that the EU was forcing mass immigration is completely wrong and part of the pro-leave lies!

Yes, the laws which surround freedom of movement within the EU show that there are strings attached when it comes to long-term stays, and you can be ejected.

But I think where Brexit supporters are getting the idea that the EU is forcing undesirable immigration more comes from when Merkel said that migrants should be settled throughout the EU.

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think the native Americans will agree with that.

There is a big difference between peaceful migration and military conquest, I don't recall anyone in the UK being forced into a reservation by migrants. Perhaps you should deal with reality rather than fantisy.

Seth Brundle

Banksy gets censored...

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1165664760744022016?s=19

J Mysterio

Forty Seven wrote: »

It is brutalising Scotland too. Coming right after brexit will be a referendum either legal or not. Another result likely to be misguided. A vote for independence just to try and join the EU. (which won't happen because of the Catalonia issue) The SNP are trying to sell it as an easy transition back to pre brexit but their motivation is just hatred of the English. They will likely win leaving Scotland (perhaps illegally) leaving the union and attempting to go it alone with the UK nuclear arsenal on our soil. A great plan....

If Brexit is extended again I fully expect riots. If it isn't and we no deal, I expect riots. I think the no deal riots will be less violent. The brexit crowd are a much different crowd to remainers.

There is no easy out here, extending or remaining doesn't matter anymore. We are entrenched, some of us across political lines, some personal but all have picked a side and all have had enough. Pray we don't get an Indian summer.

I am in agreement with a fair bit of what you say here, except I think its unfair to say the Scots want independence due to hatred of the English.

At this point, the Scots are due a second referendum as what they were told for the first has been disproven - stay in the UK to remain in the EU. The Scottish are pro EU. They have every right to seek independence with a view to rejoining the EU.

I understand the Catalonia argument, but I think that was since removed as a barrier. Im sure I recall Pedro Sanchez declare that they would not stand in the way of Independent Scotland seeking accession to the EU. EU leaders have also made conciliatory noises.

I can see how it would be upsetting as a UK person to see UK constituent countries leaving the fold but, to be honest, can you blame them? Westminster is England centric and they do treat the Scottish MPs with contempt.

Jamiekelly

So the user who claimed to have voted Remain in the referendum but now wants to leave because he is sick of hearing about Brexit is now trotting out Daily Mail/Telegraph Brexiteer talking points ad nauseum. Excuse my lack of understanding but can Forty Seven please tell me why he voted remain despite clearly believing in lies that were being thrown about during the campaign itself?

briany

I'm not sure if the Spanish government's line has ever been that they would block an independent Scotland joining the EU. As far as I can tell, they said they would not stand in the way if Scotland's leaving the UK was done constitutionally/legally. How could Spain do otherwise? Imagine them telling Brussels they were blocking a viable country from joining due to an internal political matter. That would be completely ridiculous.

There was the Spanish Popular Party who said they would block an independent Scotland joining the EU. This is because the Popular Party are hardline Spanish unionists. However, this party is not in government.

McGiver

Forty Seven wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

You'll struggle to feed half the country if the immigrants who, up to now, pick and process most of the UK's agricultural output don't turn up for work. As it is, fruit and veg farmers in the south east of England (I know - a long way from you) have said that they will need to bring people in from Africa and Asia to replace the Europeans who've been chased out of Britain.

How are your economic concerns addressed by replacing European immigrants with Africans and Asians?

What they need to do is raise wages, not import a cheap workforce living in squalor.

Quitting the EU with hard-right regime running the UK will almost certainly not achieve this. Disaster capitalists, libertarians and power hungry opportunist populist politicians coming to the fore of UK politics. Labour market deregulation would be inevitable, forget about rising wages.

briany

Forty Seven wrote: »

It is brutalising Scotland too. Coming right after brexit will be a referendum either legal or not. Another result likely to be misguided. A vote for independence just to try and join the EU. (which won't happen because of the Catalonia issue) The SNP are trying to sell it as an easy transition back to pre brexit but their motivation is just hatred of the English. They will likely win leaving Scotland (perhaps illegally) leaving the union and attempting to go it alone with the UK nuclear arsenal on our soil. A great plan....

If Brexit is extended again I fully expect riots. If it isn't and we no deal, I expect riots. I think the no deal riots will be less violent. The brexit crowd are a much different crowd to remainers.

There is no easy out here, extending or remaining doesn't matter anymore. We are entrenched, some of us across political lines, some personal but all have picked a side and all have had enough. Pray we don't get an Indian summer.

The type of people who'd riot in the event of another extension would be just your common-or-garden yob. But they're spoiling for a fight anyway. Ordinary decent people wouldn't get caught up in that because they'd need the urgency of some draconian measure being forced upon them in order to jump in the fray. They're not going to be wrecking the high street because tomorrow would be like yesterday. They'd be rioting right now if that were the case.