Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Alun

Sam Russell wrote: »

England/Scotland would not be too hard to do - didn't Hadrian do a bit of a job on it a while back?

Wales/England might be a bit trickier.

King Offa did something similar between Wales and England too. Google Offa's Dyke.

54and56

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness, we in Ireland elected Bertie Ahern on several occasions. Boris is a bit like Bertie in some respects but with brains and education.

I've never voted FF and I never will but I think you are completely wrong in your assertion here. Bertie was an old fashioned politician who knew how to play the game. He was charming when he needed to be and hard as nails when he needed to be but he was always on top of the detail. His anorak wearing persona was carefully cultivated and kept people off guard. I hated the whole FF tents at the Galway Races culture and how in the end that whole generation of FF leaders were basically intoxicated by a property bubble and took their eye off the banking regulation ball so I'll never forgive them for the damage they did to my life and the country as a whole and never ever vote for anyone who is a member of that party.

Boris is indeed well educated and has brains but his dishevelled persona whilst mostly an act in terms of his ill fitting clothes and messy hair etc is in fact who he is. His Eton debating society skills serve him well in the soundbyte media world we live in and at the dispatch box in the HoC but in terms of policy and political principles he is an empty vessel who isn't on top of the detail and is being used as a useful idiot puppet by the ERG/Aaron Banks et al to drive home their no deal Brexit agenda. Cummings is the real PM when it comes to policy and political strategy whilst Gove is the PM when it comes to implementation and execution and Boris is a willing participant as it facilitates his lifelong ambition to be PM regardless of how long he will hold that office for or what damage is done during his tenure.

Right now the UK is in a phase of Brexit which I'd correlate with the eerie calm when the tide goes out unusually far before a tsunami hits.

McGiver

For anyone interested in selfharm to the their head, brave enough to listen to the latest Chopper's Brexit Podcast, where David Davis describes the latest developments.

https://castbox.fm/episode/David-Davis%2C-an-Irish-dispatch-and-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-channels-his-inner-poet-laureate-id1336779-id179208035?utm_source=website&utm_medium=dlink&utm_campaign=web_share&utm_content=David%20Davis%2C%20an%20Irish%20dispatch%20and%20Jacob%20Rees-Mogg%20channels%20his%20inner%20poet%20laureate-CastBox_FM

I've had a listen just to see what the other side is talking about.

The level of delussion, denial and waffle Davis presented is beyond belief, and all that with his typical causual confident manner. Aall that as if he wasn't at the negotiating table for 2
years.

The highlight quote:
"Remember at the beginning of this process in 2016, I said it won't be the first three years that matter, it would be the last three weeks, three days, three minutes, three seconds."

I mean...what can you say really. He thinks that such a complex issue can be force-negotiated in three minutes by pointing a gun at their own head.

BarryD2

We're on a hiding to nothing here and the sooner the public cop on the better. Maybe it's time that our government started looking after the interests of the citizens of this Republic. We've done our bit to help our northern friends even in a situation where many of their elected representatives have been sitting on their hands.

The downside of a crash out by the UK with no deal will affect all of us deeply. Every likelihood that we'll see significant price increases in our cost of living and then the sh*t will really hit the fan.

The underlying reality is that we are 'an island behind a bigger island' and whether we like or not, we sink or swim with them.

We're essentially reduced to hoping that the MPs who attend the British parliament will find a way to scupper the Brexiteer's plans.

Leroy42

So what are you suggesting?

Franz Von Peppercorn II

BarryD2 wrote: »

We're on a hiding to nothing here and the sooner the public cop on the better. Maybe it's time that our government started looking after the interests of the citizens of this Republic. We've done our bit to help our northern friends even in a situation where many of their elected representatives have been sitting on their hands.

The downside of a crash out by the UK with no deal will affect all of us deeply. Every likelihood that we'll see significant price increases in our cost of living and then the sh*t will really hit the fan.

The underlying reality is that we are 'an island behind a bigger island' and whether we like or not, we sink or swim with them.

We're essentially reduced to hoping that the MPs who attend the British parliament will find a way to scupper the Brexiteer's plans.

Don’t see the cost of living increasing all that much, although you never know with Irish retailers.

The rising nationalism in Britain is going to intensify if and when they leave.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

The underlying reality is that we are 'an island behind a bigger island' and whether we like or not, we sink or swim with them

The alternative reality is "we are an island that's bigger than an island; we are a whole continent" :cool:

swampgas

BarryD2 wrote: »

The underlying reality is that we are 'an island behind a bigger island' and whether we like or not, we sink or swim with them.

I really don't think this is the case. We are not chained to the UK, if they want to jump off a cliff we are certainly not going to be dragged over the edge with them.

Today, the reality for Ireland is that we sink or swim with the rest of the EU.

10000maniacs

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness, we in Ireland elected Bertie Ahern on several occasions. Boris is a bit like Bertie in some respects but with brains and education.

Not sure I agree. Both are cunning, but Johnson is cunning + devious. Ahern just wanted to be Taoiseach, and events, a lot of his own making eventually trampled him underfoot.
Johnson on the other hand is immoral, self-centred & arrogant, and he has a very short time horizon. He has always done whatever will suit his own short term advantage, on very short timescales.
He has always been able to work on a “Heads I win, Tails I bull**it my way out of trouble” basis. He has always managed to clown his way out of it. But the higher you go, the harder it is to clown your way out of it, and the more collateral damage there is as you do so. The most worrying thing about Johnson is he sees no downside in being controversial, or downright dangerous.

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

For anyone interested in selfharm to the their head, brave enough to listen to the latest Chopper's Brexit Podcast, where David Davis describes the latest developments.

https://castbox.fm/episode/David-Davis%2C-an-Irish-dispatch-and-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-channels-his-inner-poet-laureate-id1336779-id179208035?utm_source=website&utm_medium=dlink&utm_campaign=web_share&utm_content=David%20Davis%2C%20an%20Irish%20dispatch%20and%20Jacob%20Rees-Mogg%20channels%20his%20inner%20poet%20laureate-CastBox_FM

I've had a listen just to see what the other side is talking about.

12.5 minutes of that is as much as I could manage (definitely not sticking around to hear JRM read poetry) but just before I hit the kill switch, I was treated to this exchange, which validates a point made by others on this thread:
Interviewer: "Would you vote for the agreement shorn of the backstop?"
DD: "Well, I would argue for a few changes aswell ... I'd have a small shopping list ..." :rolleyes:

Jizique

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1165914691132170240.html

The problem with the David Davis podcast is that much as i hate to say it, he may be correct:
"One senior EU official argues, “We have previously said we wouldn’t open the WA. Only last week Merkel pointed to the Political Declaration. Now we’re saying we don’t want to change the contents of the WA. There is a slight change... a genuine commitment to talk.” Another concurs: “We are in for quick changes, but it will take a while for the strategy to change. If there is a deal, it will only come at 5 minutes to midnight.” "

Christy42

Jizique wrote: »

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1165914691132170240.html

The problem with the David Davis podcast is that much as i hate to say it, he may be correct:
"One senior EU official argues, “We have previously said we wouldn’t open the WA. Only last week Merkel pointed to the Political Declaration. Now we’re saying we don’t want to change the contents of the WA. There is a slight change... a genuine commitment to talk.” Another concurs: “We are in for quick changes, but it will take a while for the strategy to change. If there is a deal, it will only come at 5 minutes to midnight.” "

There is no change. The UK was told 2 years ago that if they came up with an alternative to the backstop the EU would listen. It is not the EU's fault the UK was not listening before.

The EU will not talk or open the WA for discussion with a complete idea from the UK. This has not happened and will not happen.

The EU has done it's deal. The UK can't accept the deal it negotiated, nor can it accept any deal it has come up with. There is no reason for talks.

Leroy42

Its a self fulfilling prophecy though. The UK could have agreed the deal months ago, but continued to fight amongst themselves.

If, at the last minute, some small mostly rewording happens and the deal is agreed is that really the same?

And there is still a major problem that Davis is ignoring. Even if a deal is agreed at 3 minutes to go, it still has to pass through HoC, and there is no guarantee over that. So by claiming that no extension will be sought Johnson himself and ensured that no last minute deal can be reached.

Popeleo

CelticRambler wrote: »

12.5 minutes of that is as much as I could manage (definitely not sticking around to hear JRM read poetry) but just before I hit the kill switch, I was treated to this exchange, which validates a point made by others on this thread:
Interviewer: "Would you vote for the agreement shorn of the backstop?"
DD: "Well, I would argue for a few changes aswell ... I'd have a small shopping list ..." :rolleyes:

David's Shopping List:
Cherries
Cherries
Cherries
More cherries

Unfortunately for him, cherries are out of stock. The EU cannot be seen to back down now on their "red line" of not reopening the WA, especially given the way the UK has acted so disingenuously since negotiations started.

Leroy42

Popeleo wrote: »

David's Shopping List:
Cherries
Cheries
Cherries
More cherries

Unfortunately for him, cherries are out of stock. The EU cannot be seen to back down now on their "red line" of not reopening the WA, especially given the way the UK has acted so disingenuously since negotiations started.

I have no doubt that the EU would be open to reopening the WA should it be worthwhile. The EU are masters a getting deals done.

The problem for the EU is that the thing (or at least the main thing) that the UK want changed is a fundamental concern for the EU. It is the very essence of the SM itself.

If it was about the transition time frame, or the money owed, then I would expect they would be open to changes. But to ask the EU to basically end itself is never a reasonable request.

Lackadaisical

I'm a bit worried that all this focus on the backstop is going to damage FDI into Ireland. I spent Sunday explaining to a US guy and someone from Asia, both quite senior in a multinationals but relatively light on political knowledge, that Ireland is extremely unlikely to slide out of the EU.

They're hearing the British rumors that Ireland might leave the customs union to facilitate the frictionless border with the UK to avoid Northern Ireland issues and they're unsure whether or not to take them seriously.

A lot of these companies already feel they've been very badly burnt by the UK's domestic political insanity, which they underestimated, and they're becoming very conservative about investment decisions, especially in the light of Trump's war tendencies causing global instability.

The Irish Government needs to be very, very, very careful about combating those kinds of rumors as they are getting picked up and it'll drive potential investment to the continent or cause hesitation at the very least.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1165913301030768640

farmchoice

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its a self fulfilling prophecy though. The UK could have agreed the deal months ago, but continued to fight amongst themselves.

If, at the last minute, some small mostly rewording happens and the deal is agreed is that really the same?

And there is still a major problem that Davis is ignoring. Even if a deal is agreed at 3 minutes to go, it still has to pass through HoC, and there is no guarantee over that. So by claiming that no extension will be sought Johnson himself and ensured that no last minute deal can be reached.

johnson cannot get any deal through parliament as he has no working majority. if the EU capitulated and gave him everything he wanted and more, he wouldn't be able to get it through parliament.


so he has 1 choice, hold an election so he can actually govern. he then appears to has 2 choices in regard to this.
A. hold it before brexit day ( risky, might lose a lot of votes to brexit party)
B. hold it after brexit day (risky,might be voters starving for want of a loaf of bread.



in my opinion there are a myriad of reasons why option B is a non runner.
so option 1 it is. to make this work he has to negate the effect of the brexit party. to do this he has to out brexit Farage. at the moment that is exactly what he is doing. he is laying the ground work for a General election in October.

he could enter into some sort of pre-election pact with Farage and give him a clear run at leave labour seats but personally i doubt he will do this.

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

For anyone interested in selfharm to the their head, brave enough to listen to the latest Chopper's Brexit Podcast, where David Davis describes the latest developments.

https://castbox.fm/episode/David-Davis%2C-an-Irish-dispatch-and-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-channels-his-inner-poet-laureate-id1336779-id179208035?utm_source=website&utm_medium=dlink&utm_campaign=web_share&utm_content=David%20Davis%2C%20an%20Irish%20dispatch%20and%20Jacob%20Rees-Mogg%20channels%20his%20inner%20poet%20laureate-CastBox_FM

I've had a listen just to see what the other side is talking about.

12.5 minutes of that is as much as I could manage (definitely not sticking around to hear JRM read poetry) but just before I hit the kill switch, I was treated to this exchange, which validates a point made by others on this thread:
Interviewer: "Would you vote for the agreement shorn of the backstop?"
DD: "Well, I would argue for a few changes aswell ... I'd have a small shopping list ..." :rolleyes:

Yeah that one is also good - serious journalist's response would be:
"Why you hadn't done that during those two years as the Brexit Secretary?"
FFS.

J Mysterio

Who wants some WWII metaphors? Actually, these are not even metaphors. Money isnt owed because British people died in WWII apparently.

https://twitter.com/MartinKnight_/status/1165557363492999168

J Mysterio

Fascinating article here in FT arguing that Liverpool is less eurosceptic than other parts of Northern England due to the longstanding boycott of the Sun.

https://www.ft.com/content/ffdb6e8c-c5c8-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

"Remember at the beginning of this process in 2016, I said it won't be the first three years that matter, it would be the last three weeks, three days, three minutes, three seconds."

Jizique wrote: »

“We are in for quick changes, but it will take a while for the strategy to change. If there is a deal, it will only come at 5 minutes to midnight.” "

Leroy42 wrote: »

Even if a deal is agreed at 3 minutes to go, it still has to pass through HoC, and there is no guarantee over that.

Another example of Brexiters confusing intra-EU discussion and debate - which often goes down to the wire, but only has to be agreed by the people in the room - with the EU's negotiations with third countries. And having made that mistake, refusing to accept that the timetable for agreement is set by their new and glorious independent Britain.

If they're determined to hold to this belief, I suppose there's an outside chance that the EU will offer them a slight change to either the PD or the WA at the last minute, just for the fun of watching Boris trying to explain to the folks back home why he'd just asked for an extension ... :P

Imreoir2

Jizique wrote: »

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1165914691132170240.html

The problem with the David Davis podcast is that much as i hate to say it, he may be correct:
"One senior EU official argues, “We have previously said we wouldn’t open the WA. Only last week Merkel pointed to the Political Declaration. Now we’re saying we don’t want to change the contents of the WA. There is a slight change... a genuine commitment to talk.” Another concurs: “We are in for quick changes, but it will take a while for the strategy to change. If there is a deal, it will only come at 5 minutes to midnight.” "

There may well be last minute changes, but it wont be anything that significantly alters the EU position. It may be a sudden return to the NI only backstop or it may be some new form of review mechanism, but in any case it will be a compromise on the part of the UK not on the part of the EU. It may be that the UK can't accept a necessary compromise, in which case we have no-deal if the UK does not stop itself from falling off the cliff.

kunst nugget

J Mysterio wrote: »

Fascinating article here in FT arguing that Liverpool is less eurosceptic than other parts of Northern England due to the longstanding boycott of the Sun.

https://www.ft.com/content/ffdb6e8c-c5c8-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

Google the headline to get around the paywall...

maynooth_rules

Border in the Irish sea, DUP pull plug which brings the election Boris needs. In the election campaign he can fudge that he has delivered Breixt, thereby wrecking the electoral hopes of the Brexit Party, and say he has preserved peace in the North.
Boris does that, and he will comfortable win the election due to the dreadfulness of Corbyn. The only losers are the DUP.

First Up

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The Irish Government needs to be very, very, very careful about combating those kinds of rumors as they are getting picked up and it'll drive potential investment to the continent or cause hesitation at the very least.

You can be confident that the IDA is on it. As well as re-assuring existing investors (US and others), they are not being slow to mention to US companies with operations in the UK that Ireland is a handy English speaking alternative inside the Single Market.

farmchoice

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Border in the Irish sea, DUP pull plug which brings the election Boris needs. In the election campaign he can fudge that he has delivered Breixt, thereby wrecking the electoral hopes of the Brexit Party, and say he has preserved peace in the North.
Boris does that, and he will comfortable win the election due to the dreadfulness of Corbyn. The only losers are the DUP.

he doesn't need to throw the DUP under the bus to get an election and it wont help him if he does, let the opposition force the election and he can fight it as the proven defender of brexit.
he can then throw the DUP under the bus afterwards, should he win.

BarryD2

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Don’t see the cost of living increasing all that much, although you never know with Irish retailers.

I believe that c 60% of what we see in our supermarkets is either supplied through UK distributors or is ported through the UK via the land bridge route.

Our trade links with the UK are historic in extent, been our modus operandi since whenever. Changes in this are going to hit household budgets here, no escape from that and yes retailers will take advantage where they can. That's business.

Whether we like it or not, a metaphor for our relationship with the UK is that of the younger sibling. It's difficult to escape that relationship particularly when we can't just up and move the island elsewhere.

farmchoice

BarryD2 wrote: »

I believe that c 60% of what we see in our supermarkets is either supplied through UK distributors or is ported through the UK via the land bridge route.

Our trade links with the UK are historic in extent, been our modus operandi since whenever. Changes in this are going to hit household budgets here, no escape from that and yes retailers will take advantage where they can. That's business.

Whether we like it or not, a metaphor for our relationship with the UK is that of the younger sibling. It's difficult to escape that relationship particularly when we can't just up and move the island elsewhere.

the sibling metaphor is an interesting one.
at this stage while we are still the younger picked on sibling we are not a kid anymore, we have grown up gone to college got a degree and a good job, not only that but we married a very nice lad who is very successful himself and to add to that is built like a brick ****house and is as tough as nails when he needs to be and wont see us abused.

so whilst our older brother who is at home with mam and dad can make plenty of trouble for us we not as easy pushed around as we used to be.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

I believe that c 60% of what we see in our supermarkets is either supplied through UK distributors or is ported through the UK via the land bridge route.
...
Whether we like it or not, a metaphor for our relationship with the UK is that of the younger sibling. It's difficult to escape that relationship particularly when we can't just up and move the island elsewhere.

No, we can't move the island, but being an island, we can move the supply chains. And guess what - it's already been done. Ireland has been preparing for Brexit for the last three years; to re-work your metaphor - we are the older sibling in this relationship, trying to talk sense into the younger, bigger, headstrong child. But if they're determined to go off the rails, we're mature enough not to let them take us with them.