Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

dresden8

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The oul curmudgeon himself with his twenty minute monologue at the start of his show, James O'Brien is back tomorrow. (I think). Should be interesting. His stand in was Majid Nawaz. I find him very intense and self absorbed. Just me maybe.

While he's on the right side of history, his schtick is to have obvious low grade morons on so he can tear them apart.

He's Jeremy Kyle crossed with JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOe Duffy.

Stop moaning ffs

I love James. His book is truly fantastic if you haven’t read it. I recommend the audio.
Britain could do with a hundred more like him in the media right now. Cool interview with him


https://twitter.com/theneweuropean/status/1166041370144006144?s=21

Podge_irl

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think what it means is that yes, people born in NI can choose to be Irish rather than British; but if you choose wrong, don't expect to have access to the same British legal systems.

I don't understand this at all?

Her whole argument revolves around whether the UK legal system will treat her as Irish (and hence EU) or British. She wants to be treated as Irish under their legal system and they are refusing and essentially "claiming" her. It is a good example of the UK saying something but putting something else entirely into practice.

WomanSkirtFan8

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’d love to see them try that

yeah. that'd be fun just to see them fall flat on their faces. trying to break an internatational peace treaty wouldn't go down well at all especially given what the US Congress has already said. :rolleyes:

woohoo!!!

There seems to be this assumption that there's going to be an election just before or just after Brexit day. I'm not so sure about that. It suits Corbyn to delay and procrastinate cos the longer Tories are in power after Brexit day, the more they'll get the blame for the car crash. It can only be through a no confidence and 14 days for an alternative or two thirds say election time. Given the numbers and the distrust between all the parties, it's impossible to say what will happen. No one is in a position to dictate anything.

Stop moaning ffs

Apologies if already posted but I didn’t see it. Setting up an alternative commons if Johnson suspends parliament. Surely the most radical thing since their civil war no?

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1165992116050247681?s=21

prunudo

trellheim wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1166028001508651008

tapping the zeitgeist there on a UK bank Holiday monday , Cummings is some spinmaster, nothing but nothing you read is by chance which is why they dont let BJ out on his own normally with other than vague answers

I must have missed the figures, what was the big majority they voted by again? I hope he continues to trip himself up.

Infini

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It won’t be railroaded. That’s not how we work with refs. You’ll see NI tailspin into serious economic and social decline. It’ll happen naturally and you’ll see either ff or fg stick their wet finger in the air and see the mood has actually changed (it already has) and they’ll rush to get out front and make it like it was their idea. But it is coming there’s no doubt at this stage.

If there's ultimately a UI because of all this it's going to come down to both how the economy was collapsed needlessly (no deal risks depression level conditons in NI it gets hits so bad by this) and NI was ignored both by the DUP and the conservatives because Ideology was more important than peace in NI. On top of that it will make more question exactly WHY they should remain in a union with a failed goverment system and even more so should Scotland make serious move's to seceed in the wake of a disastrous crash out Brexit. The DUP needs to be hung by their collective bollocks as far as I'm concerned for being utterly stupid and ignorant those who put petty ideology before the wellbeing of everyone deserve nothing but ridicule and humiliaton.

A border poll is coming but when it does it will be based on fact's and solid information I have no doubt that expecially down here as much clear information on wether to stay or reunify with the south will be made available and likely there's been some steps already being made for that possible outcome.

Im not a betting man myself but if there's a crashout I'd put money down that there will be a United Ireland and Republic of Scotland (EU states) by the end of 2029 with only a rump state of little england left after a crash out Brexit as the damage this will cause cannot be underestimated it's the perfect shítstorm scenario brought to you by the conservatives and DUP.

fr336

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Apologies if already posted but I didn’t see it. Setting up an alternative commons if Johnson suspends parliament. Surely the most radical thing since their civil war no?

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1165992116050247681?s=21

Mad stuff and if it came to pass (hard to believe it will), the Tories will have unleashed a constitutional crisis which could lead to who knows what.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

Looking at her twitter account it seems like they are back in court on the 10th September. I cannot see how the Home Office can win this, unless they find that the GFA itself has no legal standing. I found the Home Office replies very disingenuous, they are fighting this case but they respect the right of people in NI choosing to be either Irish or British or both? Can someone explain to me how that works?

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1164530651149864961?s=20

Brexit and identity in NI: A delicate issue



They say one thing but their actions are contradictory to this.

I suppose their stance is that you can "identify" however you like, but the home office will still clasify you as a British citizen for legal purposes.

woejus

Snickers Man wrote: »

What would be the likely reaction from international bond markets if the British reneged on their promise to pay the full amount of payments collectively and colloquially known as the Brexit Divorce Bill?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-12/who-can-pay-venezuela-s-debts

"Borrowers who cannot repay loans almost never succeed in arguing impossibility. "

Slightly tangential but relevant situation with Venezuela. Stop paying your debts on bonds, it's harder to raise money from new bond issues.

Stop paying your duly owed membership fees to your (former) trade organisation, you become more risky in the eyes of institutional investors.

This risk translates to shorter terms, higher rates on bonds, more bad news for UK treasury.

Water John

Shadow AG lays out legal opinion on suspending HOC.

'In a six-page document prepared for Jeremy Corbyn, the shadow attorney general, Shami Chakrabarti, laid out how any such move by the prime minister would be open to immediate legal challenge in the courts.

She said it could be subject to judicial review and the courts “might well even grant interim injunctive relief in order to allow both houses of parliament to continue to sit and discharge their primary and sovereign constitutional role in this current moment of national crisis”.' Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/26/brexit-shutting-down-parliament-gravest-abuse-of-power-in-living-memory-legal-advice

Stop moaning ffs

Infini wrote: »

If there's ultimately a UI because of all this it's going to come down to both how the economy was collapsed needlessly (no deal risks depression level conditons in NI it gets hits so bad by this) and NI was ignored both by the DUP and the conservatives because Ideology was more important than peace in NI. On top of that it will make more question exactly WHY they should remain in a union with a failed goverment system and even more so should Scotland make serious move's to seceed in the wake of a disastrous crash out Brexit. The DUP needs to be hung by their collective bollocks as far as I'm concerned for being utterly stupid and ignorant those who put petty ideology before the wellbeing of everyone deserve nothing but ridicule and humiliaton.

A border poll is coming but when it does it will be based on fact's and solid information I have no doubt that expecially down here as much clear information on wether to stay or reunify with the south will be made available and likely there's been some steps already being made for that possible outcome.

Im not a betting man myself but if there's a crashout I'd put money down that there will be a United Ireland and Republic of Scotland (EU states) by the end of 2029 with only a rump state of little england left after a crash out Brexit as the damage this will cause cannot be underestimated it's the perfect shítstorm scenario brought to you by the conservatives and DUP.

Couldn’t agree more. My pals a soft u unionist and his father is in the orange order and a lot of them like loads are furious with the dup. This goes saints what we’ve heard but the rest on the ground unionists are seething.

Kermit.de.frog

Some ministers like Flanagan, Coveney and McEntee coming out today and warning the UK is headed for no deal and businesses need to get ready.

Bit cynical

woejus wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-12/who-can-pay-venezuela-s-debts

"Borrowers who cannot repay loans almost never succeed in arguing impossibility. "

Slightly tangential but relevant situation with Venezuela. Stop paying your debts on bonds, it's harder to raise money from new bond issues.

Stop paying your duly owed membership fees to your (former) trade organisation, you become more risky in the eyes of institutional investors.

This risk translates to shorter terms, higher rates on bonds, more bad news for UK treasury.

I think, although it is not a legal obligation and not regarded as a debt by the rating agencies, the UK is nevertheless going to pay a portion of it.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some ministers like Flanagan, Coveney and McEntee coming out today and warning the UK is headed for no deal and businesses need to get ready.

I've seen that myself not to mention the news that some buisnesses could end up going out of buisness within 72 hours of a crashout brexit. I honestly think that Johnson and friends are deluding themselves big time or being dangerously reckless in all this they don't seem to get that leaving in such a way wont get them their way it will harden most of Europe against them and they'll basically be told either they agree to our terms without complaint or they'll be tariffed on everything. The irrelevant WW2 references and obsession with the event that actually broke them 80 years ago (Irony alert) isn't going to do anything when faced with diplomatic isolation and economic chaos brought about by their own incompetence.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more. My pals a soft u unionist and his father is in the orange order and a lot of them like loads are furious with the dup. This goes saints what we’ve heard but the rest on the ground unionists are seething.

I hope they vote for Alliance or the very least the UUP (lesser of 2 evils) after all this or at least the DUP are a bunch of cancerous idiot's for what they've been doing and I hope they're cruficied at the ballot box over it, they were offered the best deal available but instead of being pragmatic they want to screw everyone over up there as hard as possible because flegs and unions more important than the regular joe having money with value, have a job or being able to make a decent living.

trellheim

they were offered the best deal available

regardless that this is the case (and I agree with that), they dont see it like that, its like teaching the pig to fish, you'll waste yours and the pigs time

Anyway this is all dead-catting.

Question : Is it people's opinions that the HMG will be forced into a climbdown. ?

Alternative Question : Assume a deal is to be done and its not the current deal ; barring A50 extension what is the latest we'll see something on the table ( David Davis famed last few minutes). Since it has to go round EUPARL, EUCO and the EU27 on our side it'll be a week/fortnight at minimum with no guarantees . you'd need something approved in the HOC very early October . If it goes any later some stubborn EU27 member will throw up something ( if I was Spain I'd pick this very moment )

Anyway ..... question to the masses


Edit : last question - has the Taoiseach not visited/been visited by the UK PM yet ? I cant remember but dont think so

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

regardless that this is the case (and I agree with that), they dont see it like that, its like teaching the pig to fish, you'll waste yours and the pigs time

Anyway this is all dead-catting.

Question : Is it people's opinions that the HMG will be forced into a climbdown. ?

Alternative Question : Assume a deal is to be done and its not the current deal ; barring A50 extension what is the latest we'll see something on the table ( David Davis famed last few minutes). Since it has to go round EUPARL, EUCO and the EU27 on our side it'll be a week/fortnight at minimum with no guarantees . you'd need something approved in the HOC very early October . If it goes any later some stubborn EU27 member will throw up something ( if I was Spain I'd pick this very moment )

Anyway ..... question to the masses


Edit : last question - has the Taoiseach not visited/been visited by the UK PM yet ? I cant remember but dont think so

No, the first meeting is scheduled for early September (in Ireland)

Kermit.de.frog

Edit : last question - has the Taoiseach not visited/been visited by the UK PM yet ? I cant remember but dont think so

Johnson is coming to Dublin early next month.

He wants to avoid the optics of 'no' for as long as he can.

Enzokk

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think what it means is that yes, people born in NI can choose to be Irish rather than British; but if you choose wrong, don't expect to have access to the same British legal systems.

Remember that former NI Secretary of State said that Irish citizens in NI would not be able to vote in a border poll there:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sf-accuses-bradley-of-staggering-ignorance-of-belfast-agreement-1.3851135

This is a fascinating case really. I know it is not strictly related to Brexit, but it could have significant influence on how the UK treats the GFA. It seems that it is about the UK Government acknowledging the right of people in NI to choose which nationality they are, but they believe that the relevant immigration act has more standing than the GFA.

In that judge’s ruling in February 2018, he refuted this, saying:

“The constitutional changes effected by the Good Friday Agreement with its annexed British-Irish Agreement… supersede the provisions of the British Nationality Act 1981 in so far as the people of Northern Ireland are concerned.

He or she is permitted to choose their nationality as a birthright. Nationality cannot therefore be imposed upon them at birth.
“The UK government is arguing that the parliament is sovereign and that the Good Friday Agreement is a treaty that has no bearing on UK law,” DeSouza says.

Derry woman in wrangle with UK Home Office fears Brexit could complicate her immigration case

What I find interesting is that this case was started in December 2015, before Brexit. So the UK Home Office has in fact been treating the GFA as just a treaty in which effectively parliament could make laws to supersede what is written in the agreement. I don't know how they could with any serious discussion think they are upholding the GFA when they are arguing they can at any moment propose new laws that would contradict and change it.

Podge_irl wrote: »

I don't understand this at all?

Her whole argument revolves around whether the UK legal system will treat her as Irish (and hence EU) or British. She wants to be treated as Irish under their legal system and they are refusing and essentially "claiming" her. It is a good example of the UK saying something but putting something else entirely into practice.

It's more sinister, it is about the UK Government thinking they can ignore the GFA and that parliament can propose new laws that could contradict the GFA and there is nothing that can be done due about this.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I suppose their stance is that you can "identify" however you like, but the home office will still clasify you as a British citizen for legal purposes.

It is such an interesting stance to take from the Home Office. Let us remember this was the Home Office of Theresa May that made this decision. I would hope that the appeal will be dealt with quickly and makes clear that the stance the UK Government is taking has no standing at all. If not the GFA is not worth the paper it is written on and the UK can write new laws that any person born in NI will be considered British and that will be the new law.

Brexit has come in the way of this appeal and slowed it down, but the effect it will have after Brexit could be very big if the UK Government wins this appeal.

brickster69

I thought Ireland was fully prepared for a no deal Brexit.

66 days to go and no plans for the border and now only 6% of an estimated 20,000 cross-border traders are prepared for cash flow and liquidity issues in the event of a no-deal Brexit "

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0826/1070895-most-cross-border-traders-ignoring-impact-of-no-deall/

BluePlanet

brickster69 wrote: »

I thought Ireland was fully prepared for a no deal Brexit.

66 days to go and no plans for the border and now only 6% of an estimated 20,000 cross-border traders are prepared for cash flow and liquidity

issues in the event of a no-deal Brexit "

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0826/1070895-most-cross-border-traders-ignoring-impact-of-no-deall/

It's hardly the government's role to prepare them for cash flow and liquidity. If businesses have not considered and prepared for this by now then it beggars the question who is in charge of the shop.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

I thought Ireland was fully prepared for a no deal Brexit.

66 days to go and no plans for the border and now only 6% of an estimated 20,000 cross-border traders are prepared for cash flow and liquidity issues in the event of a no-deal Brexit "

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0826/1070895-most-cross-border-traders-ignoring-impact-of-no-deall/

Did Johnson say that he will be putting up infrastructure going against what he said before? Any links? If not why should we prepare and make plans for a border when the UK has said they will not go back on their obligations to keep the border open?

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

I thought Ireland was fully prepared for a no deal Brexit.

66 days to go and no plans for the border and now only 6% of an estimated 20,000 cross-border traders are prepared for cash flow and liquidity issues in the event of a no-deal Brexit "

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0826/1070895-most-cross-border-traders-ignoring-impact-of-no-deall/

How do you know there are no plans for the border?

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

How do you know there are no plans for the border?

Well the only thing i have seen from Varadkar is " under no circumstances will there be a border "

Hopefully he keeps to his word.

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

How do you know there are no plans for the border?

Of course there is no plans or surely the Government would have told people by now.

BluePlanet

brickster69 wrote: »

Well the only thing i have seen from Varadkar is " under no circumstances will there be a border "

Hopefully he keeps to his word.

Do you have a link as to the source of that quote?

54and56

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's hardly the government's role to prepare them for cash flow and liquidity. If businesses have not considered and prepared for this by now then it beggars the question who is in charge of the shop.

Large businesses will have the management skills and possibly finance or access to finance to mitigate some of the potentially obvious risks like supplier delays (buy and stockpile stock) but it's hard to predict and take mitigating measures for events you can't control e.g. reduced customer demand. Do you lay people off in advance because you are anticipating a reduction in sales? If you are expecting supplier problems AND reduced sales do you stockpile to deal with the supplier issue or reduce the stock you are holding so you are not holding too much stock relative to the reduced sales you are expecting? If you have UK suppliers do you hold off buying now in anticipation of a reduction in Sterling?

No one has been here before so no one really knows what's going to happen. Modelling the "what if's" and "if this then that" scenarios is a useful exercise but having the balls to pull the trigger on anything other than the most basic forms of risk mitigation in advance of events actually happening is something else and definitely something 90% of companies won't have either the competency or finance to handle.

Reacting quickly and decisively to events as they occur will be the name of the game for most companies.

54and56

InTheShadows wrote: »

So true. Great post.

It's neither.

brickster69

BluePlanet wrote: »

Do you have a link as to the source of that quote?

Better than that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6ljJhZZo5s