Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

storker

Infini wrote: »

I hope they vote for Alliance or the very least the UUP (lesser of 2 evils) after all this or at least the DUP are a bunch of cancerous idiot's for what they've been doing and I hope they're cruficied at the ballot box over it, they were offered the best deal available but instead of being pragmatic they want to screw everyone over up there as hard as possible because flegs and unions more important than the regular joe having money with value, have a job or being able to make a decent living.

If the people of Northern Ireland were reduced to scavenging carrion, wearing animal skins and living in damp caves, that would be fine with the DUP as long as the caves had Union Jacks flying at the entrance.

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

regardless that this is the case (and I agree with that), they dont see it like that, its like teaching the pig to fish, you'll waste yours and the pigs time

Anyway this is all dead-catting.

Question : Is it people's opinions that the HMG will be forced into a climbdown. ?

In so many words; yes. EU has a long memory so even if UK comes back in 5 years for a trade deal you can guess what the first three items on the table will be.

Alternative Question : Assume a deal is to be done and its not the current deal ; barring A50 extension what is the latest we'll see something on the table ( David Davis famed last few minutes). Since it has to go round EUPARL, EUCO and the EU27 on our side it'll be a week/fortnight at minimum with no guarantees . you'd need something approved in the HOC very early October . If it goes any later some stubborn EU27 member will throw up something ( if I was Spain I'd pick this very moment )

Well I'd guess a last minute HOC approval followed by an unofficial A50 extension for the voting basically. From the last round I think the expectation is it will take 1 to 3 months to finish up the voting through all relevant groups. The interim deal is basically EU asking countries to treat UK as part of the EU still (they have zero obligation to do so) so not much difference comparing a signed deal vs. the unofficial extension from a pragmatic point of view for third party countries.

Leroy42

InTheShadows wrote: »

Limpy wrote: »

Leo et al went all in from the get go. The UK will leave without a deal and we will be worse off. Ireland have more in common with the UK then any other nation, but we are treating them like they are from the other side of the world.

We could of agreed a deal between the two governments due to the northern Ireland situation.

Instead the government and the EU are trying to stop Brexit by all means.

So true. Great post.

Which part is true?

What should Leo have done? Remember that the UK made a commitment in December 2017 not to have any border.

Should Ireland have gone behind TMs back direct to JRM maybe to discuss this deal you allude to?

Stop moaning ffs

brickster69 wrote: »

Well the only thing i have seen from Varadkar is " under no circumstances will there be a border "

Hopefully he keeps to his word.

He will. The brits won’t. They’re planning to put British police on the border.
They said they wouldnt yet they’re already recruiting and planning for it

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1165706927269134337?s=21

Headshot

Opposition parties meeting Corbyn tomorrow, this will be fascinating

Corbyn really has a chance to be the bigger man and a real leader tomorrow but it wont happen i'm afraid

brickster69

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He will. The brits won’t. They’re planning to put British police on the border.
They said they wouldnt yet they’re already recruiting and planning for it

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1165706927269134337?s=21

It does not say they will be at the border. Just Northern Ireland.

Enzokk

brickster69 wrote: »

It does not say they will be at the border. Just Northern Ireland.

What will they be doing in Northern Ireland then? Is it maybe the 300 or so border crossings that will need attention?

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course there is no plans or surely the Government would have told people by now.

That depends on what the plan is. It might not be necessary to tell people what the plan is if, for example, the plan is for there to be no border. As he said.

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

That depends on what the plan is. It might not be necessary to tell people what the plan is if, for example, the plan is for there to be no border.

And what if there is going to be a border when will they tell people. Hopefully not BTW.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

And what if there is going to be a border when will they tell people. Hopefully not BTW.

We are going around in circles here. There will not be a hard border. Simplest solution and the obvious one if we don't want another outbreak of violence. Something that apparently is of no consequence to the UK government.

trellheim

Of course there is no plans or surely the Government would have told people by now.

How was the bank holiday ? Nice to see the opposition up and at it early on

Stop moaning ffs

brickster69 wrote: »

It does not say they will be at the border. Just Northern Ireland.

You’re missing the point. Not the first time. I’ll leave you to it.

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

We are going around in circles here. There will not be a hard border. Simplest solution and the obvious one if we don't want another outbreak of violence.

Totally agree. UK leaves the EU and we sought something out about the border. Job done !

brickster69

trellheim wrote: »

How was the bank holiday ? Nice to see the opposition up and at it early on

No opposition at all. Very warm today, burnt my bald patch.

Christy42

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He will. The brits won’t. They’re planning to put British police on the border.
They said they wouldnt yet they’re already recruiting and planning for it

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1165706927269134337?s=21

Their own documents also said it unavoidable in yellow hammer (released under the Boris admin so can't be blamed on May).

Stop moaning ffs

Christy42 wrote: »

Their own documents also said it unavoidable in yellow hammer (released under the Boris admin so can't be blamed on May).

Forgot that.
Hopefully our pal here will have read that too. Seems to have escaped his notice.

brickster69

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Forgot that.
Hopefully our pal here will have read that too. Seems to have escaped his notice.

That is in a worst case scenario isn't it ? Even though the WA is dead, some magic solution will crop up.

Water John

Yellowhammer is not worst case scenario but likely.

FrancieBrady

brickster69 wrote: »

That is in a worst case scenario isn't it ? Even though the WA is dead, some magic solution will crop up.

It isn't dead...we are still waiting for the UK to do something. The WA still stands.

Theresa May did exactly the same thing...ran it up to the deadline and looked for an extension.

Stop moaning ffs

Water John wrote: »

Yellowhammer is not worst case scenario but likely.

The real worst case report is called black swan and hasn’t been leaked yet but it’s name has appeared on documents

Stop moaning ffs

brickster69 wrote: »

That is in a worst case scenario isn't it ? Even though the WA is dead, some magic solution will crop up.

The working agreement isn’t dead. It’s the only deal available.
What papers do you read exactly?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Any idea what is the most likely outcome on Brexit now for the Irish economy and house prices?

ThePanjandrum

Christy42 wrote: »

Their own documents also said it unavoidable in yellow hammer (released under the Boris admin so can't be blamed on May).

Yellowhammer was stood down in April 2019 by May (and her cronies including Hammond). The leaked documents were dated August 2019 which was obviously false. The Gibraltese Government has confirmed that it was an old document.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

Totally agree. UK leaves the EU and we sought something out about the border. Job done !

Did you mean sort?


Unlike the UK, we have been preparing for this for three years. The fact that the entire freight corridor through the UK was re-aligned through proposal, consultation and feedback stages and concluded almost a year ago should give you some idea of the preparation involved. Without a doubt, solutions for the border in a hard brexit were also looked at. And since the stated objective was to leave it open, that clearly was the plan. And although not an ideal solution; without British co-operation, there would be some leakage, I'm sure they decided it was a small price. I don't suspect it will be long before a more formal situation is agreed and implemented. The border will be in the Irish Sea, de facto and in a short space of time de jure. Assuming the UK actually pull the trigger and blow their metaphorical brains out of course.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Yellowhammer was stood down in April 2019 by May (and her cronies including Hammond). The leaked documents were dated August 2019 which was obviously false. The Gibraltese Government has confirmed that it was an old document.

So you'll have backup for both of those statements then?

brickster69

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The working agreement isn’t dead. It’s the only deal available.
What papers do you read exactly?

FFS, are you deaf ?

ThePanjandrum

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He will. The brits won’t. They’re planning to put British police on the border.
They said they wouldnt yet they’re already recruiting and planning for it

https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1165706927269134337?s=21

I don't subscribe to the Times but that Tweet does not indicate that the police would be deployed on the Irish border. It doesn't even intimate it.

Enter name here

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any idea what is the most likely outcome on Brexit now for the Irish economy and house prices?

Yes we are all screwed. The Eu will go into a massive recession and cease to exist within 5 years. We will then have to run back to the UK with our tails between our legs asking for forgiveness.

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

Did you mean sort?


Unlike the UK, we have been preparing for this for three years.

Ireland has no preparations. They are totally reliant on the EU as to what is going to happen. Otherwise they would have produced impact reports and so on, but they do not want to scare the public.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I don't subscribe to the Times but that Tweet does not indicate that the police would be deployed on the Irish border. It doesn't even intimate it.

The headline linked in that tweet literally says: English police could patrol Northern Ireland border