Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also not relevant to other 99.9% of the UK population.

Gibraltar is not part of the United Kingdom.

MrMusician18

Headshot wrote: »

Thread is gone to the dogs of late, there really should be post count threshold on posters posting in the politics forum tbh

The thread had gone downhill because really this story hasn't changed since Johnson became PM and won't move on until parliament is back from the summer recess.

Apart from the G8 all we've had to debate was a couple of remarks from the G8 and comment pieces from journalists that are about as informed as the average poster here (at best)

These threads are always at their best when they are reacting to a rolling story. While the Brexit story is still rolling of course, it has slowed considerably in August.

Bit cynical

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Coveney especially has been clear on this repeatedly. You don’t show your opponents your homework. You don’t reveal your plans so a toxic media in the uk can use it against you.
The government here is acting perfectly within its bounds to protect Irish businesses and interests and has the backing of the Eu. You don’t like it. Tough cookies. We’re far better prepared for every outcome than Britain’s government and broken society it is. Sorry but its true.

I think the lack of plans is probably more for the domestic audience.

If you want to maximise strength against an opponent in a deal you show them you are fully prepared in the event of no deal. Our Government has done this in other areas.

ThePanjandrum

Strazdas wrote: »

The Yellowhammer report was dated August 1st (confirmed by a Downing Street spokesman)

If the info on Gibraltar was wrong, it simply means that small section of the report was out of date

I'd be interested to see that purported confirmation, especially as none of the parties involed seem to be aware of it.

Indeed the Guardian, which suffers severely from Brexit Derangement Syndrome, stated that

Despite the document, leaked to the Sunday Times, being dated to earlier this month when Johnson was already in post, the senior No 10 source said: “This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders.

“Those obstructing preparation are no longer in government, £2bn of extra funding has already been made available and Whitehall has been stood up to actually do the work through the daily ministerial meetings. The entire posture of government has changed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/18/number-10-furious-leak-document-predicting-no-deal-brexit-shortages

Stop moaning ffs

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think the lack of plans is probably more for the domestic audience.

If you want to maximise strength against an opponent in a deal you show them you are fully prepared in the event of no deal. Our Government has done this in other areas.

We are fully prepared. Or as much as can be. There’s long term planning up to ten years for the big issues. Completely outclassed them on this one. And we have Eu support after for any snafus.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Would anyone in this thread/experts who have read lots buy a home at this time or will Brexit be the start of an economic slowdown.

Tell me how

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The thread had gone downhill because really this story hasn't changed since Johnson became PM and won't move on until parliament is back from the summer recess.

Apart from the G8 all we've had to debate was a couple of remarks from the G8 and comment pieces from journalists that are about as informed as the average poster here (at best)

These threads are always at their best when they are reacting to a rolling story. While the Brexit story is still rolling of course, it has slowed considerably in August.

It was/is the G7, is it not?
I know Trump is trying to get Putin back in bit didn't hear that that was happening.

Leroy42

Sorry ThePanjandrum, are you suggesting that they rewrite the full report each time?

They would review the underlying assumptions and amend if required. Hence the latest report showed less disruption to transport because of additional preparations undertaken by France in Calais.

What has changed in relation to Gibraltar?

And again, why gas Johnson not published a report showing the expected effects of no deal, since according to him it is what people want?

Where are the comparisons showing No Deal v WA v Remain? Why are they withholding this information?

And why, given that Johnson knew of the likely effects of as outlined by previous versions of Yellowhammer, why has he continued on with such an outcome as a possibility?

ThePanjandrum

I notice that the Times, which is Remainer to the core, has a leader in today's paper entitled

The Irish mustn’t get away with dirty tactics on Brexit

ThePanjandrum

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Would anyone in this thread/experts who have read lots buy a home at this time or will Brexit be the start of an economic slowdown.

From the UK. If I wanted it and if it was a decent price, yes.

Charles Babbage

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I notice that the Times, which is Remainer to the core, has a leader in today's paper entitled

Written by a Trimblite.



It argues that warnings about peace in NI should be discounted as "threats".

Podge_irl

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I notice that the Times, which is Remainer to the core, has a leader in today's paper entitled

It has a comment piece, not a leader.

What on earth does "Remainer to the core" even mean?

Bit cynical

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We are fully prepared. Or as much as can be. There’s long term planning up to ten years for the big issues. Completely outclassed them on this one. And we have Eu support after for any snafus.

I did not mean lack of preparations but rather lack of published plans. In other areas there have been published plans, advice to businesses etc. in the event of no deal. This strengthens our position in negotiations. We show that we can cope if there's no deal. In general you want to be able to do this in every area but I'm suggesting that the reason we don't in the case of the border is for domestic reasons.

ThePanjandrum

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sorry ThePanjandrum, are you suggesting that they rewrite the full report each time?

They would review the underlying assumptions and amend if required. Hence the latest report showed less disruption to transport because of additional preparations undertaken by France in Calais.

What has changed in relation to Gibraltar?

And again, why gas Johnson not published a report showing the expected effects of no deal, since according to him it is what people want?

Where are the comparisons showing No Deal v WA v Remain? Why are they withholding this information?

And why, given that Johnson knew of the likely effects of as outlined by previous versions of Yellowhammer, why has he continued on with such an outcome as a possibility?

If you write a report for a meeting then you carefully check what has been said before and only copy over paragraphs that are still valid. You then circulate it before the meeting to all parties involved so that they can read through it and make any necessary changes before the meeting. The updates are then circulated.

This did not happen with Gibraltar and we have no record that a meeting actually took place at this time so it beggars belief that the British parts were updated and not the Gibraltese.

Clutching at straws comes to mind.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

From the UK. If I wanted it and if it was a decent price, yes.

From Dublin?

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'd be interested to see that purported confirmation, especially as none of the parties involed seem to be aware of it.

Indeed the Guardian, which suffers severely from Brexit Derangement Syndrome, stated that



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/18/number-10-furious-leak-document-predicting-no-deal-brexit-shortages

The report was dated August 1st, 2019, we know this for a fact :

https://twitter.com/goodclimate/status/1163718496083161088

https://twitter.com/thefishareloose/status/1163405751924269056

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1163404610041782272

Stop moaning ffs

Bit cynical wrote: »

I did not mean lack of preparations but rather lack of published plans. In other areas there have been published plans, advice to businesses etc. in the event of no deal. This strengthens our position in negotiations. We show that we can cope if there's no deal. In general you want to be able to do this in every area but I'm suggesting that the reason we don't in the case of the border is for domestic reasons.

Can’t go into why but I’ll refer back to the coveney stance. Just cos we havent shown it doesn’t mean we don’t have it basically.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

FFS, are you deaf ?

##Mod Note##

Brickster will be taking a short break

A Dub in Glasgo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I notice that the Times, which is Remainer to the core, has a leader in today's paper entitled

It is not a leader, it is the 'Thunderer' section of the paper which the Guardian described it best

'The term "The Thunderer" was coined to describe Times leaders; recently, the paper revived it for a column that hosts a circus of dyspeptic ranters, most of whom lack both rigour and coherence.'

I am sure the mods won't mind me copying the article

Dean Godson wrote:

Imagine the justified howls of outrage if a special adviser to a British minister boasted that a campaign of dissident loyalist violence had shifted the Irish government’s stance on Brexit to one more accommodating to the UK.

Right-minded people would have denounced British “collusion” with loyalists and condemned a “discourse of threat” incompatible with the Good Friday agreement of 1998.

No British panjandrum has made so outrageous a claim. But, according to the Irish Independent, such a claim was made by a source close to Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister. The source effectively gave violent republican opponents of the peace process credit for causing Boris Johnson to shift his position on Brexit. Attacks have included the attempted murders of PSNI officers in Fermanagh last week.

So are dissident republicans becoming a “next steps agency” for the Irish government in its struggle with the British over Brexit? The logic employed by the unrepudiated Coveney source is that dissident violence could be used to shift the British every time there is an impasse in talks. Thus, dissident republicans, with minimal electoral support on either side of the Irish border, are being recognised by the Dublin government as making the political weather.

Irish officials might be forgiven for thinking on the basis of history that the British will move their position. But this is a very different kind of UK government: it will be much harder to “put manners on the Brits” this time round. In short, Johnson hasn’t diluted his stance on the backstop. Unfortunately, the path was cleared for Coveney’s mate to make the claim by the chief constable of the PSNI, Simon Byrne, who blundered into the political space by stating that uncertainty over a hard Brexit created space for dissident violence. But Byrne conceded that there was no intelligence on this.


Brexit is not the cause of any potential breakdown in the peace process: dissident republicans and loyalists have been dishing out sectarian mayhem ever since the Good Friday agreement, when Brexit was no more than a twinkle in Nigel Farage’s eye. The new, self-confident UK government must push back at this latest iteration of anglophobic narratives, in the way that the British state never did during the Troubles.

Dean Godson is director of the think tank Policy Exchange and author of Himself Alone: David Trimble and the Ordeal of Unionism

Podge_irl

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

This did not happen with Gibraltar and we have no record that a meeting actually took place at this time so it beggars belief that the British parts were updated and not the Gibraltese.

Why? Gibraltar just isn't that large or important - why would their section need to be constantly updated? They will be massively less affected then the UK as they are not part of the CU anyway.

Strazdas

Podge_irl wrote: »

Why? Gibraltar just isn't that large or important - why would their section need to be constantly updated? They will be massively less affected then the UK as they are not part of the CU anyway.

The bit about the Gibraltar info being out of date is a total red herring. Tory spokesmen admitted the report was updated and published on August 1st.....it was this new version that the Sunday Times got their hands on.

J Mysterio

Pheonix10 wrote: »

From Dublin?

UK could crash out in October, or there might be an extension for another year for a GE or another referendum or they might revoke a50 altogether. It's hard to predict as Westminster is all over the shop and Johnson is entirely unpredictable - he goes where the wind blows and where he senses an opportunity.

If you have the money and can afford the house and you perceive it to be good value, go for it.

Really though, if you are in the market for a house, I would suggest to you to undertake more research and make inquiries to relevant authorities on the housing market. We can't really answer this as god knows what is going to happen.

J Mysterio

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

If you write a report for a meeting then you carefully check what has been said before and only copy over paragraphs that are still valid. You then circulate it before the meeting to all parties involved so that they can read through it and make any necessary changes before the meeting. The updates are then circulated.

This did not happen with Gibraltar and we have no record that a meeting actually took place at this time so it beggars belief that the British parts were updated and not the Gibraltese.

Clutching at straws comes to mind.

Look, we all know that the UK preparations are lacking, what do you want us to do about it? Maybe if the UK stopped hammering their civil service, they might make less mistakes?

jimmycrackcorm

brickster69 wrote: »

Ireland has no preparations. They are totally reliant on the EU as to what is going to happen. Otherwise they would have produced impact reports and so on, but they do not want to scare the public.

Not quite true. Ireland has implemented a better plan at increasing continental shipping capacity than the UK did with their phantom
ferry contracts.
Would you believe, actual ships and all ???

jimmycrackcorm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Yellowhammer was stood down in April 2019 by May (and her cronies including Hammond). The leaked documents were dated August 2019 which was obviously false. The Gibraltese Government has confirmed that it was an old document.

The actual facts are that the likely outcome scenario from no deal on march 29 is still the same for October 31st.

Same civil servants saying to me on, yes we're still f***d

Peregrinus

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Would anyone in this thread/experts who have read lots buy a home at this time or will Brexit be the start of an economic slowdown.

Brexit will be the start of an economic slowdown. How severe and how lasting depends on the terms of Brexit, but all forms of Brexit are, basically, bad news in economic terms. And any slowdown in the UK will have adverse impacts in Ireland.

Would I buy a home? That decision is not driven only, or even mainly, by expectations about future economic performance, or even about future house price movements. For most people, that decision is driven mainly by the need for a home.

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Yellowhammer was stood down in April 2019 by May (and her cronies including Hammond). The leaked documents were dated August 2019 which was obviously false. The Gibraltese Government has confirmed that it was an old document.

Lies: it was confirmed that it was a love document updated in August with updated information from France.

fash

Here is Mujtaba Rahman's full take on the trip to Berlin/Paris. Of note, the plan indicated seems to be about using the backstop as a dead cat.
Any solution will still need to comply with the GFA etc- and it is for the UK to make proposals.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1165914691132170240

woohoo!!!

Ignore the Johnson smiles and bluster, the fact is he's in a weaker position than May. He's relying on the speaker for his majority. So of course he wants to side line parliament. But no matter, it still amounts to the UK negotiating with themselves, again. The EU have been done since November, with just minor changes to the political declaration. Everything else is white noise.

Christy42

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Ignore the Johnson smiles and bluster, the fact is he's in a weaker position than May. He's relying on the speaker for his majority. So of course he wants to side line parliament. But no matter, it still amounts to the UK negotiating with themselves, again. The EU have been done since November, with just minor changes to the political declaration. Everything else is white noise.

Has anyone pointed out to the man that sidelining the democratically elected parliament is, err, undemocratic?

More than happy to ignore the people when it comes down to it it seems!

As an aside, would Boris be better able to take a meaningless wording change and sell it to Brexiteers as a UK win to get the WA through?