Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

FastFullBack

54&56 wrote: »

In order to pull the rug from the deluded ERG/David Davis types who believe the EU will cave 3 weeks, 3 days or even 3 minutes before 23:00 on Oct 31st could Leo prorogue the Dail in early Oct and not reconvene until Nov 1st? Without a Dail to vote through a new WA no amount of last minute pressure could force Ireland to drop the backstop before Oct 31st and it would test BoJo's commitment to leaving on Oct 31st "do or die".

If proroguing the HoC is good enough for BoJo to force through his preferred version of Brexit surely doing the same here would be an equally valid thing to do to ensure our preferred version of Brexit was protected?

Why would he need too? Any other version of the WA that Ireland doesnt like would simply be rejected in the Dail. Leo has a majority

54and56

First Up wrote: »

Lisbon isn't bad but the non Schengen line in Faro can be awfully slow. I doubt they would give the UK their own line but some places might let them keep using the EU line for a bit.

Yep, I've suffered through that myself a few times but I do recall someone in authority there stating that they would have to re-balance the lanes to facilitate a smoother passage for all post Brexit.

trellheim

54&56 wrote: »

In order to pull the rug from the deluded ERG/David Davis types who believe the EU will cave 3 weeks, 3 days or even 3 minutes before 23:00 on Oct 31st could Leo prorogue the Dail in early Oct and not reconvene until Nov 1st? Without a Dail to vote through a new WA no amount of last minute pressure could force Ireland to drop the backstop before Oct 31st and it would test BoJo's commitment to leaving on Oct 31st "do or die".

If proroguing the HoC is good enough for BoJo to force through his preferred version of Brexit surely doing the same here would be an equally valid thing to do to ensure our preferred version of Brexit was protected?

qualified majority isnt it not a veto

54and56

trellheim wrote: »

qualified majority isnt it not a veto

True, forgot that

Two things though:-

1. Despite qualified majority, a lot of countries will take their que from Ireland as they know support for Ireland now will be banked and called on down the road when they themselves may have an issue they require support on.

2. Post no deal Brexit any FTA will require unanimous approval of all EU27 inc some regional governments.

First Up

54&56 wrote:

Yep, I've suffered through that myself a few times but I do recall someone in authority there stating that they would have to re-balance the lanes to facilitate a smoother passage for all post Brexit.

Which makes sense. Airports are in the traffic management business, not playing politics.

bob mcbob

Article in the Times yesterday - there are contingency plans in place for Police Scotland to send 300 officers to NI to back up PSNI in event of a no deal.

I don't think Police Scotland are particularly thrilled at this though.

Stop moaning ffs

bob mcbob wrote: »

Article in the Times yesterday - there are contingency plans in place for Police Scotland to send 300 officers to NI to back up PSNI in event of a no deal.

I don't think Police Scotland are particularly thrilled at this though.

Apparently they can’t

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1165549458974760961?s=21

InTheShadows

Call me Al wrote: »

I read somewhere on a Brexit-loving article (please don't ask me to find it! I wouldn't have a clue where I saw it by now) that Spain and Portugal were planning to dedicate a passport queue especially for their UK blue-passported visitors.
Maybe it makes logistical sense at these airports.

As they should. The UK is a massive market tourist wise.

Imreoir2

Call me Al wrote: »

I read somewhere on a Brexit-loving article (please don't ask me to find it! I wouldn't have a clue where I saw it by now) that Spain and Portugal were planning to dedicate a passport queue especially for their UK blue-passported visitors.
Maybe it makes logistical sense at these airports.

What on earth makes them think that would be a good thing for the Brits? Segrate out all the Brits, letting EU traffic flow easlily, while the Brits wait around in their immobile line for Manuel to come back from his tea-break.

quokula

54&56 wrote: »

It really isn't. Why would Portugal want to pi$$ off it's #1 source of tourists? What would that achieve for them? Economic reality will trump pettiness.

It's very easy to re-balance the # of EU dedicated lanes/booths Vs the # of non EU lanes/booths to ensure a smooth transition for all visitors coming to your country to spend their money.

Waiting a bit longer at the airport isn't going to wildly change the number of UK tourists. It's not like they'll have a wide variety of other countries they have free movement with to choose from instead. Even if they did, I don't think I've ever heard someone base their holiday destination on the length of the queue at the airport.

The continuing collapse of their currency will likely have a bit more of an impact though.

Imreoir2

54&56 wrote: »

In order to pull the rug from the deluded ERG/David Davis types who believe the EU will cave 3 weeks, 3 days or even 3 minutes before 23:00 on Oct 31st could Leo prorogue the Dail in early Oct and not reconvene until Nov 1st? Without a Dail to vote through a new WA no amount of last minute pressure could force Ireland to drop the backstop before Oct 31st and it would test BoJo's commitment to leaving on Oct 31st "do or die".

If proroguing the HoC is good enough for BoJo to force through his preferred version of Brexit surely doing the same here would be an equally valid thing to do to ensure our preferred version of Brexit was protected?

There is not a majority in the Dáil threathning to outvote Leo at any moment to give the Brits everything the dream of. Any deal that does not suit the Irish government would be voted down as a formality in the Dáil.

Enzokk

A couple of interesting tweets I found this morning, Johnson will send Brexiteers to the House of Lords to help shape UK laws. I still fail to see how he is a reluctant leaver, when all of his actions shout out he is very much into Brexit and the consequences.

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1166277510381916161?s=20

And then Labour, another day another reason for your opinion of Corbyn to drop. What is the biggest crises facing the UK right now? Brexit and no-deal. How can you stop it? By taking control of parliament and forcing a extension to get it sorted. What does Corbyn plan on doing? Follow Johnson to call an early election so no-deal is very much on the table and a threat to everyone. Slow clap for Corbyn.

Corbyn could support pre-Brexit election to stop no deal

Jeremy Corbyn would support Boris Johnson in calling a general election, even if the polling day fell just days before the 31 October Brexit deadline, the Guardian understands.

The Labour leader’s team are convinced a no-deal Brexit could be thwarted by securing an extension from Britain’s EU partners, even after the European council meets on 17 October.

Johnson is widely believed to be plotting a snap poll if MPs try to thwart his Brexit plans – by passing legislation forcing him to ask for an extension to article 50, for example.

However, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the prime minister would need a two-thirds majority to call a general election before the next one is due in 2022. Theresa May passed that hurdle easily in 2017, with Labour keen to take her on at the polls. But Nick Boles, a former Conservative MP who has been involved in cross-party efforts to find a Brexit compromise, has urged Corbyn to rule out supporting a general election before an extension to article 50 has been secured.

Johnson cannot call a new election without Labour support. He will have Tory candidates sign up to a no-deal pledge to be able to stand as an MP. This would mean the likes of Grieve and Clark and Hammond will be gone and others will replace them. The Brexit Party could stand back in the Tory heartlands and go hard at Labour seats, which could mean a Tory majority. Then it will be no-deal.

I know he voted against no-deal but the same as the above, his actions just shout out he wants to leave and he wants the Tories to take the blame. He doesn't really care about the EU and he is seeing only trees when he needs to be focused on the woods.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

A couple of interesting tweets I found this morning, Johnson will send Brexiteers to the House of Lords to help shape UK laws. I still fail to see how he is a reluctant leaver, when all of his actions shout out he is very much into Brexit and the consequences.

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1166277510381916161?s=20

And then Labour, another day another reason for your opinion of Corbyn to drop. What is the biggest crises facing the UK right now? Brexit and no-deal. How can you stop it? By taking control of parliament and forcing a extension to get it sorted. What does Corbyn plan on doing? Follow Johnson to call an early election so no-deal is very much on the table and a threat to everyone. Slow clap for Corbyn.

Corbyn could support pre-Brexit election to stop no deal



Johnson cannot call a new election without Labour support. He will have Tory candidates sign up to a no-deal pledge to be able to stand as an MP. This would mean the likes of Grieve and Clark and Hammond will be gone and others will replace them. The Brexit Party could stand back in the Tory heartlands and go hard at Labour seats, which could mean a Tory majority. Then it will be no-deal.

I know he voted against no-deal but the same as the above, his actions just shout out he wants to leave and he wants the Tories to take the blame. He doesn't really care about the EU and he is seeing only trees when he needs to be focused on the woods.

Johnson doesn't give a damn about Brexit in reality. It's about power and prestige, and Brexit is delivering for him. As Groucho Marx said: "These are my principles and if you don't like them....well, I have others." Funnily enough, Groucho Marx had more gravitas than Johnson.

First Up

Enzokk wrote:

A couple of interesting tweets I found this morning, Johnson will send Brexiteers to the House of Lords to help shape UK laws. I still fail to see how he is a reluctant leaver, when all of his actions shout out he is very much into Brexit and the consequences.

What gave you the idea he was a reluctant leaver? His pro Brexit stance quite possibly swung the referendum.

Charles Babbage

First Up wrote: »

Which makes sense. Airports are in the traffic management business, not playing politics.

Immigration is the decision of government, not the airport.

lawred2

road_high wrote: »

Yea because they're going to spend extra money/staff on seperate arrangements for just one country :rolleyes:. Classic Brexit delusion

Well it would be for one of their prime tourist markets really...

lawred2

Brexit heroes... Good lord. Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

First Up

Charles Babbage wrote:

Immigration is the decision of government, not the airport.

We are not talking about immigration; just how queues are managed. The appropriate checks still apply.

Laois_Man

Enzokk wrote: »

Johnson cannot call a new election without Labour support. He will have Tory candidates sign up to a no-deal pledge to be able to stand as an MP. This would mean the likes of Grieve and Clark and Hammond will be gone and others will replace them. The Brexit Party could stand back in the Tory heartlands and go hard at Labour seats, which could mean a Tory majority. Then it will be no-deal.

The Brexit Party haven't given any commitment yet to do deals with the Tory party - as recently as this morning, Farage was talking about it with lots of ifs and buts

As for taking Labour votes in swing constituencies - the presence of a BP candiate is more likely to result in Labour (or Lib Dem) victories - as has been seen in recent by-elections!

Water John

I'm sure Farage doesn't want to be the leader who accidentally prevented Brexit.
So if election takes place before 31st, he has a stark choice to make.

Stop moaning ffs

Nigel sets out his stall and kicks off his campaign presumably

https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1166317280797609984?s=21

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

... The French allow Monaco and Swiss passports to use the EU line in some places....

Switzerland is in Schengen and so are Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Monaco is more France than the Crown dependencies are the UK.


Lars

Sam Russell

Enzokk wrote: »

A couple of interesting tweets I found this morning, Johnson will send Brexiteers to the House of Lords to help shape UK laws. I still fail to see how he is a reluctant leaver, when all of his actions shout out he is very much into Brexit and the consequences.

https://twitter.com/david_conn/status/1166277510381916161?s=20

And then Labour, another day another reason for your opinion of Corbyn to drop. What is the biggest crises facing the UK right now? Brexit and no-deal. How can you stop it? By taking control of parliament and forcing a extension to get it sorted. What does Corbyn plan on doing? Follow Johnson to call an early election so no-deal is very much on the table and a threat to everyone. Slow clap for Corbyn.

Corbyn could support pre-Brexit election to stop no deal



Johnson cannot call a new election without Labour support. He will have Tory candidates sign up to a no-deal pledge to be able to stand as an MP. This would mean the likes of Grieve and Clark and Hammond will be gone and others will replace them. The Brexit Party could stand back in the Tory heartlands and go hard at Labour seats, which could mean a Tory majority. Then it will be no-deal.

I know he voted against no-deal but the same as the above, his actions just shout out he wants to leave and he wants the Tories to take the blame. He doesn't really care about the EU and he is seeing only trees when he needs to be focused on the woods.

If the 'No Deal' act is a money bill, it cannot be stopped by the HoL.

Professor Moriarty

Farage very clear at his Trumpian rally that the Brexit Party will support the Tories by not running against them in a GE. With one proviso, they must run on a No Deal manifesto. So, in a GE, that's the Tory party either split right down the middle or losing many core votes in swing constituencies. You'd almost like Nigel for promising that.

VinLieger

Just read that apparently in the case of no deal and reciprocal rights not being agreed for UK/EU citizens all those returning including the pensioners from Spain etc, who lets be honest more than likely voted leave, won't have access to the NHS because you require 12 months residency. Absolutely love the irony of it all.

Imreoir2

VinLieger wrote: »

Just read that apparently in the case of no deal and reciprocal rights not being agreed for UK/EU citizens all those returning including the pensioners from Spain etc, who lets be honest more than likely voted leave, won't have access to the NHS because you require 12 months residency. Absolutely love the irony of it all.

Seems like it would be fairly straight forward to ammend the residency requirement to cover those British citizens previously living in an EU memberstate. It would be within the power of the UK parliament to make such a change and as such will not pose much or a problem in reality. I can't see a Conservative Government needlessly angering pensioners. The bigger problem is once that admin issue is sorted, how do you actually provide the service when you have thousands more pensioners looking for a service and EU staff leaving the country in droves at the same time.

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

Just read that apparently in the case of no deal and reciprocal rights not being agreed for UK/EU citizens all those returning including the pensioners from Spain etc, who lets be honest more than likely voted leave, won't have access to the NHS because you require 12 months residency. Absolutely love the irony of it all.

They’re already Prioritizing I’m citizens over non nationals if things like cancer treatment according to LBC a few weeks back. British woman was asked to bring her passport to her first chemo

trellheim

hey’re already Prioritizing I’m citizens over non nationals if things like cancer treatment according to LBC a few weeks back. British woman was asked to bring her passport to her first chemo

UK pays med costs for its expats in Spain already so needed passport to make sure it was recharged

reslfj

54&56 wrote: »

Two things though:-

1. Despite qualified majority, a lot of countries will take their que from Ireland as they know support for Ireland now will be banked and called on down the road when they themselves may have an issue they require support on.

2. Post no deal Brexit any FTA will require unanimous approval of all EU27 inc some regional governments.

1. Indeed they will
But other EU27 members will in addition be very reluctant to agree to anything weakening the SM - however small this weakening seems.

2.
A comprehensive FTA anything close to what the UK needs (and hope for?) will include parts than can't be passed by QMV + EU Parliament and must be ratified by member states
But basic trade deals need not be ratified in the parliaments of member states.

Lars

serfboard

Imreoir2 wrote: »

how do you actually provide the service when you have thousands more pensioners looking for a service and EU staff leaving the country in droves at the same time.

Very easy - triple or quadruple the number of South Asian medical & nursing staff.

No doubt the Brexiteers will welcome them with open arms.