Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Jizique

Boris has persuaded everyone (esp the ERG) that he is hard core, "do or die", even if he already voted for the WA.
It would make for a fun tory conference if he polishes this turd

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Was this it?
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1166348874199523328

There are (predictably) loons agreeing with her under that tweet. These Brexit guys are revolutionaries / extremists...they don't actually like the Parliament and think it is a hindrance to the society they want

briany

Igotadose wrote: »

Uhh... but the timer expires on 1 November doesn't it?

For the first and probably last time I listened to about 15 minutes on LBC live, where they interviewed a Brexit Party candidate for a seat somewhere.


God help England.

I think the EU would grant another extension if the UK parliament says it rejects no deal, and has a concrete plan to break the deadlock.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

I think the EU would grant another extension if the UK parliament says it rejects no deal, and has a concrete plan to break the deadlock.

So your saying theres no hope?

Rjd2

Laois_Man wrote: »

Far
There'll be no Brexit/Tory pact then!

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1166327548483182592

It's almost enough to make you wonder whether those who suggest that Farage is actually an undercover remainer may have a point!

Its well known Farage loathes the Tories and Cummings. I think the fear for Nigel is Brexit means that he becomes irrelevant and also he would love the idea of costing the tories an election.

Jim2007

briany wrote: »

I think the EU would grant another extension if the UK parliament says it rejects no deal, and has a concrete plan to break the deadlock.

Do you appreciate that this new plan would have to ensure that in the event of a no deal BREXIT that NI would need to remain within a customs union with the EU acceptable to the WTO? In other words another plan that would give the same outcome as the backstop.... and why would Boris and friends come up with such an idea, since it is exactly what they want to avoid?

Imo, this thread is falling for BJ's shlte too much. He isn't Farage or Cummings. When it comes down to it, he won't choose to be the man who brought No Deal.

It's a play.. An act in a big story. The UK is not going to crash out on the back of a PM who doesn't have the conviction for it.

LeinsterDub

Imreoir2 wrote: »

So your saying theres no hope?

Revoking is always an option

Mr.Nice Guy

With regards the earlier discussion about the psychology of Brexiters, did anyone catch David McWilliams recent podcast? He frames the Brexit mindset in terms of the six stages of grief model which I thought was an interesting take. Here's a transcript of the last few minutes:

To the Brexiteers, what has happened is they never figured out after the empire that Britain is no longer a major power; and as a consequence now, they seem to be, not just delusional, but psychologically, totally lost. And a framework to look at this is through the perspective of the six stages of grief.

When I look at the Brexiters, there was a Swiss psychologist many years ago called Kubler-Ross, and she identified grieving, loss, as being something that goes through six distinct phases. And when I look at the Brexiteers, their loss, their grief, is a grief for Empire. It’s a grief for where Britain used to be, it’s a loss that they haven’t prepared themselves for, of the diminution of their stature. And Kubler-Ross said when you’re grieving you go through these stages: the first stage is shock; the second stage is denial; the third stage is anger; the fourth stage is bargaining; the fifth stage is depression; and the sixth stage is resignation. So let’s look at Brexit through these stages…

The first grieving, (i.e when they realise they were no longer the big power, when they lost their power, so this is their grief, their loss), was shock. That the EU said, “okay you want to leave, here’s the conditions.” They’re like, “That can’t be possible!” But there’s a thing called the Withdrawal Agreement - it’s like a divorce, you can’t just walk away. You’ve got kids, alimony, the house, so this idea, ‘we can just walk away and everything would be fine’…they were shocked. Theresa May was shocked. The psychology of the Brexiteers, initially they were shocked by the fact that they couldn’t walk away as the Brexiteers had promised them, and get a great deal with these silly Europeans, and that everything would be hunky dory.

The second phase is the denial phase. That they’re in denial about the loss of power. The denial phase is kind of still going on, they may be actually be in that phase now. So, consequently, they are blaming everybody else, they are elevating their own power, they are saying ‘we’ll bring the Irish to heel, Ireland is the weakest link’, they are in denial about their lack of power.

The third phase is anger. And this will come. And this is the phase where they become angry at their own emasculation. They become angry at their lack of power. They become angry at the fact they have to deal with the rest of the world, particularly the European Union, not as equals but actually as inferiors.

The next phase is the bargaining phase. They’ll have to realis,e ‘we have to do a bargain, and we have to trade’, and you know what, it ain’t going to be pretty. It’s No Deal for Now.

The fifth phase is what Kubler-Ross says is the depression phase. When you become depressed, when you sink into a torpor; in the case of grief it’s the loss of the person, you realise the person is gone. In the case of the Brexiters, they’ll realise that their ideal Britain doesn’t exist anymore, and they will become depressed. And in this phase is where I think Scotland will go off on its own, and Northern Ireland will become its issue.

The final phase is acceptance; you are resigned, you accept the new reality, you get on with your life. And interestingly, it’s in these final three phases - bargaining, depression, and acceptance - which is the next phase of Brexit. This is where the UK will begin to atrophy. The Scots will go off on their own, where Northern Ireland will come into play, and ultimately where the Brexiteers will, a bit like the Serbs in Yugoslavia - they started out with this idea that we want Greater Serbia, they ended up with a Serbia that was smaller than it had ever been before - that’s exactly what’s going to happen to the UK. They start off with this idea of Great Britain, they will end up with little England. Exactly like the Serbs.

For us, and to come back to our idea of preparation, we need to be prepared for the new Ireland, that is the unintended consequence of Brexit, which will be unification, or some change of constitution on this island.

I would agree Brexit supporters are very much in the denial phase. Most seem to continue to be under the illusion that this is a negotiation of sides with equal influence. It seems the events of the last few years have been conveniently forgotten about and the narrative is that May and Olly Robbins were 'collaborators'. It won't be long before Johnson too is denounced as a traitor as the revolution eats itself. We're already seeing elements of that with the Brexit Party's warnings to Johnson.

briany

Deleted User wrote: »

Imo, this thread is falling for BJ's shlte too much. He isn't Farage or Cummings. When it comes down to it, he won't choose to be the man who brought No Deal.

It's a play.. An act in a big story. The UK is not going to crash out on the back of a PM who doesn't have the conviction for it.

I don't think Johnson is Mr. No Deal, and I don't think he's Mr. Deal. I think he's Mr. Whatever-the-Hell-Keeps-Him-and-his-Party-the-More-Electable..

briany

briany wrote: »

I don't think Johnson is Mr. No Deal, and I don't think he's Mr. Deal. I think he's Mr. Whatever-the-Hell-Keeps-Him-and-his-Party-the-More-Electable..

He can see how Trump has ruined his legacy over in America. That's done. I just don't think he is willing to do the same. A backtrack is always going to play out better for him than some bad act like proroguing parliament or being responsible for No Deal.

I dunno. In the last few days, I've started to believe that all this is just ridiculous bluster.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

He can see how Trump has ruined his legacy over in America. That's done. I just don't think he is willing to do the same. A backtrack is always going to play out better for him than some bad act like proroguing parliament or being responsible for No Deal.

I dunno. In the last few days, I've started to believe that all this is just ridiculous bluster.

It is that all right.

The three choices remain the same as always.

1: Crash out - disaster short term and long term. Very hard to come back from even if through a complete climb down. Would the EU allow them back in without them losing the cherries they have accumulated over the years.

2: WA deal - bad but they could live with it during transition, but what happens then?

3: Revoke - but the loss of face could make life in the EU unbearable for a decade.

Well Mr Bond Johnson, which is it to be? [This is the voice of the Bond villain as he throws his dead cat on the table].

A Shropshire Lad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They can. Parliament is sovereign in the UK. Not the PM, the people or the government. Parliament.

Is the Monarch not soverign in the UK ultimately. I know they dont 'interfere' in politics but I thought that was more of a gentlemans agreement rather than law. I could be completely wrong here !

Leroy42

The issue for Johnson and the Tories is they have allowed themselves to be completely outmanouvred by the BP. TBF it is hard to go up against a party with no actual policies and no care for anything other than 1 single issue.

WA or revoke and the Tories will be decimated. No Deal is basically the only way out unless they get a full capitulation from the EU.

A Shropshire Lad

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Is the Monarch not soverign in the UK ultimately. I know they dont 'interfere' in politics but I thought that was more of a gentlemans agreement rather than law. I could be completely wrong here !

I think that was answered after the civil war, the Roundheads won for parliament.

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Is the Monarch not soverign in the UK ultimately. I know they dont 'interfere' in politics but I thought that was more of a gentlemans agreement rather than law. I could be completely wrong here !

I think that was answered after the civil war, the Roundheads won for parliament.

The monarch does have ultimate power, but only as long as they promise not to use it as the moment they do then parliament will put them out of existence.

Sam Russell

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Is the Monarch not soverign in the UK ultimately. I know they dont 'interfere' in politics but I thought that was more of a gentlemans agreement rather than law. I could be completely wrong here !

The Monarch is not allowed into the HoC chamber - ever, under any circumstances. She must take the advice of her PM, however she meets the PM every week and the conversations at the meetings are secret.

Stop moaning ffs

Are you a Brit still waiting for the EU or Ireland to blink? It’s been three years!
You may be entitled to compensation!

In all seriousness when are they going to understand


https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1166415484797030407?s=21

trellheim

The Monarch is not allowed into the HoC chamber - ever, under any circumstances. She must take the advice of her PM, however she meets the PM every week and the conversations at the meetings are secret

What law is that - where is it written down ?

Anyway remember this is all to keep BJ in as PM everything is to that end; if you do this then you can have anything you want, thus Cummings gets to do his brexit.

In other news Steve baker tweets

Quite right.

As Boris said in the Commons, "A time limit is not enough." (http://bit.ly/30ULVYt )

Of course if we were asked to approve the same deal with a time-limited backstop, many of us would vote against for at least these reasons:

if the ERG are out then Boris will need Labour for a deal

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

The Monarch is not allowed into the HoC chamber - ever, under any circumstances.

What law is that - where is it written down ?

Google it. The Monarch has not been allowed in the HoC chamber since 1642, when Charles the First went there to arrest a few MPs, and that led to the Civil War and Charles the first lost his head. No Monarch has followed him on either count.

The MPs are summoned by Black Rod to the House of Lords to hear the Queen's Speech (which of course is written by the PM). The last time she showed her displeasure by turning up in her Ascot outfit instead of the usual jewel encrusted Crown atop her ermine gown, with full cast of diamonds.

trellheim

What law is that - where is it written down ?

is my point - its all tradition

maebee

Good piece in the "Business Insider". Stephen Farry, deputy leader of Northern Ireland's Alliance Party spells it out as it is.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-northern-ireland-feels-ignored-by-boris-johnsons-government-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

.....
NI must remain in the SM after Brexit or lots of everyday things cannot happen along the border, and quite a few things no-one wants will start happening.

Of course, if NI stays in the SM it might as well stay in the CU, and preferably in the EU VAT scheme.
...

It's the CU and the SM that together that will keep the land border open for goods.

Norway(EEA) and Switzerland are both in the SM (EU standards and regulations passed as law and an ECJ associated top court = the EFTA court), but they are not in the CU. They have border control for all commercial transport of goods across their borders with the EU and often long queues.

Lars

PS! EU VAT scheme in NI would be nice for N-S trade, but I am not sure have it will work for NI-GB trade.

Stop moaning ffs

Sam Russell wrote: »

Google it. The Monarch has not been allowed in the HoC chamber since 1642, when Charles the First went there to arrest a few MPs, and that led to the Civil War and Charles the first lost his head. No Monarch has followed him on either count.

The MPs are summoned by Black Rod to the House of Lords to hear the Queen's Speech (which of course is written by the PM). The last time she showed her displeasure by turning up in her Ascot outfit instead of the usual jewel encrusted Crown atop her ermine gown, with full cast of diamonds.

I’m a dyed in the wool Irish republican but I love this stuff. The workings of the monarch and the absurdity is always entertaining to read about thanks for sharing.

Jizique

trellheim wrote: »

What law is that - where is it written down ?

Anyway remember this is all to keep BJ in as PM everything is to that end; if you do this then you can have anything you want, thus Cummings gets to do his brexit.

In other news Steve baker tweets

if the ERG are out then Boris will need Labour for a deal

They weren’t happy when May approached Labour - and now they have a hard leave cabinet.
He will never do that.

A Shropshire Lad

trellheim wrote: »

is my point - its all tradition

The United Kingdom does not have a constitution at all in the sense most commonly used around the world – a document of fundamental importance setting out the structure of government and its relationship with its citizens.

Stop moaning ffs

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The United Kingdom does not have a constitution at all in the sense most commonly used around the world – a document of fundamental importance setting out the structure of government and its relationship with its citizens.

Is that why I’m seeing farage etc rant about the manga carta so much?
They will all be farming and smallholders post Brexit. After they’ve rioted and eaten each other that is. Maybe this is what he is referring and alluding to.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Are you a Brit still waiting for the EU or Ireland to blink? It’s been three years!
You may be entitled to compensation!

In all seriousness when are they going to understand


https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1166415484797030407?s=21

Following that readout it's hard to see where the guardian/no 10 is getting that the EU is potentially softening on the withdrawal agreement

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

It's the CU and the SM that together that will keep the land border open for goods.

Norway(EEA) and Switzerland are both in the SM (EU standards and regulations passed as law and an ECJ associated top court = the EFTA court), but they are not in the CU. They have border control for all commercial transport of goods across their borders with the EU and often long queues.

Lars

PS! EU VAT scheme in NI would be nice for N-S trade, but I am not sure have it will work for NI-GB trade.

Well, yes you are correct about the need for the CU, but it is the SM that makes a hard border essential. We could tolerate a bit of a leaky border if the standards are OK, and let the tariff situation sit. It is a problem with diesel leaking across the border, but it is tackled. The same would happen with customs based smuggling.

What cannot be tolerated is chlorinated chicken and low standard hormone fed beef.

Of course, the SM requires inspections at NI ports (as currently for SPS and agriculture) or shipment through Dublin (as currently happens with 60% of trade).

The EU VAT for NI requires full communication with Ireland. I do not think that it would affect the UK side, just exports from NI to Ireland would not attract a VAT refund.

Of course exporting NI beef to the UK could be interesting, as how Irish or British is the beef? Would it be tariff free?

A Shropshire Lad

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is that why I’m seeing farage etc rant about the manga carta so much?
They will all be farming and smallholders post Brexit. After they’ve rioted and eaten each other that is. Maybe this is what he is referring and alluding to.

Farage is just waiting for the day when he can hold a full Nuremburg style rally. Maybe not too far off