Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

riddles

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I disagree with Boris Johnson's politics almost entirely. But he's really charming and likeable. Can't help but feel warm to him.

He's full of bluster and hot air. But he's very friendly.

He literally managed to avoid giving an answer on will there be food and medicine shortages in the UK. There will be, but smart politicking.

Hard to argue with him even if he's completely wrong.

You have indeed perfectly described the hallmark of the lovable rogue conman who has a penchant for blatantly lying.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's move away from just pasting outrageous tweets, images and the like please.

Leroy42

I see that Johnson is stating that without a WA then the £39bn will not be paid, whilst acknowledging that some portion of it will be paid regardless.

Can someone refresh me on he details of the payment. I was of the understanding that the 39 was based on the transition period, ie including almost two years member fees. Or is that £39bn on top of annual payments during the transition?

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see that Johnson is stating that without a WA then the £39bn will not be paid, whilst acknowledging that some portion of it will be paid regardless.

Can someone refresh me on he details of the payment. I was of the understanding that the 39 was based on the transition period, ie including almost two years member fees. Or is that £39bn on top of annual payments during the transition?

The EU were quick to come out in reply him saying that. Think it was Verhofstadt said that if they renege on their payment of the €39 billion there will be absolutely no deal with them until it’s paid.


Found it

‘If the UK doesn't pay what is due, the EU will not negotiate a trade deal. After a "no deal", this will be a first condition of any talks. Britain is better than this’

Stop moaning ffs

Leroy is the pic attached what you’re looking for? Breakdown of the money
OBRs breakdown of the settlement and its components

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see that Johnson is stating that without a WA then the £39bn will not be paid, whilst acknowledging that some portion of it will be paid regardless.

Can someone refresh me on he details of the payment. I was of the understanding that the 39 was based on the transition period, ie including almost two years member fees. Or is that £39bn on top of annual payments during the transition?

The 'Divorce Payment' is the balance between the agreed liabilities of the UK less their agreed assets. No sum has been agreed in the WA, only the method to be used for calculating it.

Their net contribution per year is of the order of €10 billion a year, so a delay in leaving reduces it, but the transition period has not been extended. The current budget period continues until the end of 2020, the the bill probably remains the same, despite the delay.

If the UK refuses to pay, then life will be difficult for any UK initiatives that the UK wish get support for in the world forum. They mostly act like the USA's poodle at the current time, but with Trump smelling blood, even that might not get much kudos for them.

Life will be hard following 'No Deal'.

Stop moaning ffs

This from Nick Robinson of the BBC. Is this Johnson’s emergency play to undo the alternative parliament move?

‘Hearing that the Queen could be asked to agree to prorogue parliament as early as today. She’s in Balmoral. Would be done by Order in Council. Only one source. Not confirmed. Watch this space’

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Sam Russell wrote: »

The 'Divorce Payment' is the balance between the agreed liabilities of the UK less their agreed assets. No sum has been agreed in the WA, only the method to be used for calculating it.

Their net contribution per year is of the order of €10 billion a year, so a delay in leaving reduces it, but the transition period has not been extended. The current budget period continues until the end of 2020, the the bill probably remains the same, despite the delay.

If the UK refuses to pay, then life will be difficult for any UK initiatives that the UK wish get support for in the world forum. They mostly act like the USA's poodle at the current time, but with Trump smelling blood, even that might not get much kudos for them.

Life will be hard following 'No Deal'.

Trump does smell blood. And the only deal he'll be looking for is a lowering of the food standards.

All the government/military trade deals are already in place between them.

bobmalooka

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This from Nick Robinson of the BBC. Is this Johnson’s emergency play to undo the alternative parliament move?

‘Hearing that the Queen could be asked to agree to prorogue parliament as early as today. She’s in Balmoral. Would be done by Order in Council. Only one source. Not confirmed. Watch this space’

Yikes.

I think what we’re seeing is an escalation of provoking the opposition into making their move

VinLieger

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Trump does smell blood. And the only deal he'll be looking for is a lowering of the food standards.

All the government/military trade deals are already in place between them.

They will get rid of food protections allowing the likes of chlorinated chicken etc but also what they really want is removing food name protections as well meaning US manufacturers can flood the UK with cheap crappier versions of their traditional food types. Ironically all those naming protections are in place thanks to EU laws

Stop moaning ffs

bobmalooka wrote: »

Yikes.

I think what we’re seeing is an escalation of provoking the opposition into making their move

Definitely looks like that right?

Stop moaning ffs

They’re going for it. This drags the queen into this right? I thought all sides wanted to avoid that?
Anyone able to explain what this means?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1166621354147401728?s=21


https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1166625013518258178?s=21

https://twitter.com/lappinm/status/1166624457051574272?s=21

BonnieSituation

It really isn't ever bloody simple with them.

Layer after layer of nonsense.

I think after all of this, the next Labour/Lib Dem govt needs to get rid of the Fixed-term Parliament Act.

Another needless and monumental Cameron folly that just hamstrings everybody.

ath262

apparently UK Gov. has scheduled a Queen's Speech on the 14th October, which effectively prorogues Parliament from the 11th September, thereby denying Parliament from any moves to block a no-deal Brexit

breaking on BBC News - see Laura's posts

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1166621354147401728

robinph

The Queens Speach for a new year of parliament is well overdue, but timing it like this they avoid the claim of having the shutdown coinciding with Brexit day, but equally make it have virtually the same effect but shutting things down practically until then. Then have the MP's all excited about the start of the new term feeling again and "lets just wait and see what happens" kicks in again.

trellheim

Dead catting. Interesting to see what the Queen will say as it brings her into the political arena

robinph

trellheim wrote: »

Dead catting. Interesting to see what the Queen will say as it brings her into the political arena

The Queen dieing would be quite useful at the moment as that would put a halt to things for a good while.

Edit: Might be enough for just Prince Philip to shuffle off and would mean they don't bother the Queen for a bit actually.

VinLieger

So whats the ultimate goal here? He's leaving space of a week or two for the opposition to do something but what is it hes trying to force them into exactly? An election to make them fall out by default?

LeinsterDub

robinph wrote: »

The Queen dieing would be quite useful at the moment as that would put a halt to things for a good while.

Edit: Might be enough for just Prince Philip to shuffle off and would mean they don't bother the Queen for a bit actually.

The queen is dead long live the king. It would make no difference constitutionally

trellheim

Rememeber if nothing is done its a hard Brexit 31 October

The opposition needs a law directing the UK PM to seek an A50 extension of at least 1 year or something unless parliament has ratified a deal

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The queen is dead long live the king. It would make no difference constitutionally

But it would as far as the papers getting all upset about Boris going an bothering the family in mourning with work issues.

Beechwoodspark

Hilary Benn on Newstalk at mo

Pat read out kuensbergs tweet

Benn is saying it’s an outrage if they are looking to shut down parliament

Popeleo

VinLieger wrote: »

They will get rid of food protections allowing the likes of chlorinated chicken etc but also what they really want is removing food name protections as well meaning US manufacturers can flood the UK with cheap crappier versions of their traditional food types. Ironically all those naming protections are in place thanks to EU laws

Indeed. And the more the US can strong-arm out of the UK in negotiations, the higher the divergence in food standards between NI and the rest of Ireland in a no-deal, making a hard border more likely.

I could see Irish farmers south of the border trying to block the border if the government were too slow doing so. They would be losing a lot of their largest market traditionally with a no-deal and no border controls could jeopardise access to most other export markets, both inside and outside the EU, if our exports are seen to be contaminated by cheap food and not up to EU standards.

54and56

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hilary Benn on Newstalk at mo

Pat read out kuensbergs tweet

Benn is saying it’s an outrage if they are looking to shut down parliament

The phoney HoC war since BoJo became PM is over and both sides are now beginning to lock horns in a fight which will have historical consequences regardless of who the victor is.

Fascinating to be able to watch this play out over the next 10 weeks or so.

FastFullBack

So by scheduling this Queen's speech for Oct 14th does that mean that parliament is automatically suspended for the 3 weeks leading up to it?

First Up

Meanwhile the world is watching the UK descend to the level of a banana republic and looking at ways to get out of the way.

The most spectacular piece of self-destruction this century.

ath262

FastFullBack wrote: »

So by scheduling this Queen's speech for Oct 14th does that mean that parliament is automatically suspended for the 3 weeks leading up to it?

sky news saying it Parl. would be prorogued from the 9th Sept.

Enzokk

If the plan was for the opposition of no-deal to deal with no-deal through legislation and to call a vote of no-confidence as a last resort, this will have upped the ante in that respect. The question is as always, what is the endgame for Johnson and Cummings? Is it to get a no-deal or a new election forced on them? If it is the latter, then let them suspend parliament and come back with a "new" deal or no-deal, but if it is to leave the EU without a deal then you have to strongly consider a VONC.

prunudo

Considering she doesn't like to get involved in the politics of the country, it makes you wonder why the queen would agree to the date if it means interfering in the running of a democratically elected parliament and playing into the unelected Mr. Cummings plans.

LeinsterDub

prunudo wrote: »

Considering she doesn't like to get involved in the politics of the country, it makes you wonder why the queen would agree to the date if it means interfering in the running of a democratically elected parliament and playing into the unelected Mr. Cummings plans.

Any action she takes in this situation even inaction is getting involved.