Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BarryD2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

There’s a lengthy list of all the business organizations farming orgs all sorts of entities that have come out against the dup stance on the backstop etc it represented all sectors of industry up there and none octhem are happy. Loads have pulled funding support for the dup too.

Yeah but that wouldn't necessarily transfer to the ballot box in the immediate future anyway. Maybe if there were serious repercussions for businesses and ordinary voters income and cost of living, then the DUP might get a kicking. An election now might suit the DUP as an exit strategy to the corner they've wandered into.

BonnieSituation

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

There is a by-election tomorrow in Shetland for a seat in the Scottish Parliament, have a look at what Davidson is campaigning on

https://twitter.com/Zarkwan/status/1166334292965896193

I love how at all turns that the ScotsCons are trying to show how they're not Boris Johnson's Cons.

Anyone any insight into this one? Surely a LD victory?

A Dub in Glasgo

You will see a lot of wailing from the Lib Dems and Labour about no deal Brexit when they refused to take it off the table earlier this year

https://twitter.com/jammach/status/1166664930470309889

The Tories in Scotland have gone into hiding and cancelled all engagements with the media today

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1166690370681524224

A Dub in Glasgo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Anyone any insight into this one? Surely a LD victory?

Looks like it will be close although expect the Lib Dems to retain it

LeinsterDub

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

There’s the source

https://twitter.com/colettebrowne/status/1166689431983730688?s=21

To which the opposition say they'll ignore and sit at Church House. What a mess that would be.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/27/mps-pledge-form-alternative-parliament-prorogation-church-house-declaration-brexit

Stop moaning ffs

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To which the opposition say they'll ignore and sit at Church House. What a mess that would be.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/27/mps-pledge-form-alternative-parliament-prorogation-church-house-declaration-brexit

So two parliaments in effect? What happens then?

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So two parliaments in effect? What happens then?

Constitutional crisis

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't know how Bercow could say no . It's a new parliament. What precedent could he use ?

Previously it wasn't a new anything, was just May looking for ways to bring back the same vote multiple times.

Now it's not a new parliament, it's a new set of people sat on the front row of the left hand set of benches. A new PM and cabinet, but it's not like they have a Queens Speech each time you get a cabinet reshuffle. They are approximately meant to have one each year though, so are overdue, but a new PM or cabinet isn't the trigger for it.

ancapailldorcha

No more one-liners please. Posts deleted.

ltd440

Strazdas wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

How can Johnson support the WA when he himself has castigated it and calling it undemocratic? Or is the thinking he will accidentally bring it back and have people vote on it, then support it or not?

I don't follow this thinking. Either he will own it and will lose Tory support to the Brexit Party who will hammer him on it in a new election (majority of only 1, remember), or he will distance himself from it in which case it has 0% chance of going through.

He and Cummings clearly have a very specific plan with a desired outcome. The question is whether it is actually No Deal or a WA.....it's anyone's guess

This. No one seems to know what the UK government is going to do but as David Davies kept on saying the deal will be only done at the very last possible moment. I think they're going down this route now. Trying to panic hoc and EU into accepting into whatever plans cummings and Johnson have

Kermit.de.frog

The EU could not have written a better script here.

The UK are pulling themselves in to a constitutional crisis.

The EU has not done anything except negotiate a deal with the British govt and then sit on the sidelines and watch the chaos unfold. None of what is happening now can be blamed on them. This is all on the Tories.

I have no idea where we go from here.

briany

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To which the opposition say they'll ignore and sit at Church House. What a mess that would be.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/27/mps-pledge-form-alternative-parliament-prorogation-church-house-declaration-brexit

I'm not sure I understand. In the event where the official parliament is suspended, wouldn't MPs convening somewhere else just be people sitting in a room with no actual power to do anything?

VinLieger

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think we can all agree that this increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit tenfold and the only good thing coming out of that is an increase in the chances of a united Ireland.

Not neccessarily a good thing as neither country is anywhere near ready for it socialiy, culturally or economically, would have been far better for it to naturally happen over the next 10-20+ years instead of being forced due to brexit within the next 5

briany

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think we can all agree that this increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit tenfold and the only good thing coming out of that is an increase in the chances of a united Ireland.

Depends on what happens after a no-deal Brexit. For example, you could get the situation where a hard border renews IRA activity and the Troubles in general, polarising both communities and ensuring that there'll be no crossing the aisle, so to speak.

Strazdas

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think we can all agree that this increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit tenfold and the only good thing coming out of that is an increase in the chances of a united Ireland.

I wouldn't be so sure. It looks like the whole Brexit saga is going to blow up in the next 3-4 weeks. It's anyone's guess what will happen or where this will go.....even the UK pundits are stumped.

Stop moaning ffs

briany wrote: »

Depends on what happens after a no-deal Brexit. For example, you could get the situation where a hard border renews IRA activity and the Troubles in general, polarising both communities and ensuring that there'll be no crossing the aisle, so to speak.

Nobody at all would support the provos kicking off again or any loyalist group.

BarryD2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The UK are pulling themselves in to a constitutional crisis.

And a likely outcome is that we'll be sucked down with them. Why is our government so quiet? The public here should be getting full disclosure from our leaders. Instead we're being kept in the dark, that they can't talk openly about the horse in the room because they don't want to make it bolt. We're just supposed to pretend we don't see anything and hope for the best. Not very convincing and if it goes pear shaped - then our Leo and FG are going to take a right hiding.

LuckyLloyd

briany wrote: »

Yes, it will affect us here, so the more time we and our government have to prepare, the better.

Nah, I no longer see an Irish / EU benefit to prolonging the process. There were theories of rolling on extensions to let Brexit fade away but all that the last extension achieved was a greater extremism to UK politics and an essential deterioration of its societal discourse. It's time to go.

Chips Lovell

I don't think anyone wants to be left holding that baby (Northern Ireland).

Igotadose

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Nobody at all would support the provos kicking off again or any loyalist group.

Do you think that'll stop them? No one (admits) to supporting them now, do they? And yet, there's bombs and shootings, albeit rarely, still happening.

And as has been pointed out a lot lately, Brexit and Irish Identity in NI are a big challenge if there's a no deal. NI needs special handling, UK are too clueless to understand that, they think it's just about a border. That's just one problem.

Kermit.de.frog

Looks like the resolve has hardened on the EU side given Boris Johnson's antics. Coveney now saying no change acceptable on the backstop.

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1166705649859878913

Stop moaning ffs

The Donald weighs in

Would be very hard for Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Britain’s Labour Party, to seek a no-confidence vote against New Prime Minister Boris Johnson, especially in light of the fact that Boris is exactly what the U.K. has been looking for, & will prove to be “a great one!” Love U.K.

prawnsambo

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think we can all agree that this increases the chance of a no-deal Brexit tenfold and the only good thing coming out of that is an increase in the chances of a united Ireland.

If that was the intention, why October 14th? If that's what you want, why not delay the Queen's speech until the 1st November?

lawred2

VinLieger wrote: »

Not neccessarily a good thing as neither country is anywhere near ready for it socialiy, culturally or economically, would have been far better for it to naturally happen over the next 10-20+ years instead of being forced due to brexit within the next 5

when do you expect to be 'ready' for it?

these things don't happen in an instant.. it would probably take a decade long transition period after a vote anyway

j8wk2feszrnpao

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nah, I no longer see an Irish / EU benefit to prolonging the process. There were theories of rolling on extensions to let Brexit fade away but all that the last extension achieved was a greater extremism to UK politics and an essential deterioration of its societal discourse. It's time to go.

Logic has gone out of the window in the UK. Just read some of the comments here, or some of the people that phone into radio shows in the UK. Things are made up, lies and deceit, and confusion abound; just to justify the idea that the EU is the root of all evil in the UK.
Brexit has to happen. It needs to happen. It's the only way that there's a possibility of these people realising that Britain's problems are 99.9% the fault of their own politicians and their own making. Britain staying in the EU at this point will only fuel their illogical rage, and only opens up more issues for the EU when Brexit happens further down the road.

Enrico Palazzo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

You are ignoring my post here

Not sure, I'm following you. Are you saying the leaflet assumes the WA would include a bad deal for the UK and advises that it could take them years to get a better one? That's not what it says.

trellheim

Guido fawkes announcing the queens agreed to prorogue



https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1166709230709149697

(obligatory hory shee)

LeinsterDub

robinph wrote: »

Previously it wasn't a new anything, was just May looking for ways to bring back the same vote multiple times.

Now it's not a new parliament, it's a new set of people sat on the front row of the left hand set of benches. A new PM and cabinet, but it's not like they have a Queens Speech each time you get a cabinet reshuffle. They are approximately meant to have one each year though, so are overdue, but a new PM or cabinet isn't the trigger for it.

I meant if BJ prorogues and has a new QS. Then it is a new parliament so Bercow would have to allow the withdrawal deal at least once more

fash

Berserker wrote: »

No they don't. The democratic wish of the British people takes precedence over everything else anyway. The people voted for Brexit and Boris is going to deliver it, as promised.

If you honestly believe that why are you so petrified of having asking the people if this is what they want?

Leroy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

If that was the intention, why October 14th? If that's what you want, why not delay the Queen's speech until the 1st November?

They hace significantly reduced the time available to debate and vote, whilst having the impression that they are not stopping parliament.

1st November would have no defence. It is all about giving just enough cover to carry on the farce and avoid being directly blamed.