Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

when do you expect to be 'ready' for it?

these things don't happen in an instant.. it would probably take a decade long transition period after a vote anyway

I’d agree. But we’re far better at running refs than the British. Every element of the changeover and implementation and integration would be examined down the the last full stop and prepared before it was even put to the inevitable citizens assemblies on it.

I agree we shouldn’t rush into it but I do think it’s now inevitable

j8wk2feszrnpao

trellheim wrote: »

Guido fawkes announcing the queens agreed to prorogue

It is kinda funny though. An unelected PM goes to an unelected head of state, to suspend the elected Parliament.

c_murph

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The EU has not done anything except negotiate a deal with the British govt and then sit on the sidelines and watch the chaos unfold. None of what is happening now can be blamed on them. This is all on the Tories.

I have no idea where we go from here.

Exactly, they have the same choices that have been on the table since 2018.
1. No Deal
2. No Brexit
3. Withdrawal Agreement - either this one or if the UK come up with an alternative to the Backstop that delivers at least as good a result.

The chaos on London is all for the domestic audience, the EU won't change the final options now just because BJ has prorogued Parliament or will hold an election or whatever else he and Cummings may be planning to get something through / around Parliament.

For the Tories both 1 and 2 will likely be a split that may end the party as it is. Best option to preserve them is 3 - lose the ERG, but only those hardliners. Out of power for ten years and then back in.

AdamD

munstermagic11 wrote: »

It is kinda funny though. An unelected PM goes to an unelected head of state, to suspend the elected Parliament.

The fact that a monarch is in any way involved in this doesn't exactly scream democracy in action, but try telling the brits that.

Stop moaning ffs

There it is

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1166711465040142336?s=21

reslfj

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The Eu can’t suspend the uk. You should read more current affairs.

Not suspend everything, but voting rights is far more than "can't", I should think.

Lars

TEU A7.3 wrote:

3. Where a determination under paragraph 2 has been made, the Council, acting by a qualified majority, may decide to suspend certain of the rights deriving from the application of the Treaties to the Member State in question, including the voting rights of the representative of the government of that Member State in the Council.
In doing so, the Council shall take into account the possible consequences of such a suspension on the rights and obligations of natural and legal persons.
...

Stop moaning ffs

reslfj wrote: »

Not suspend everything, but voting rights is far more than "can't", I should think.

Lars

Could the Eu use this to stop rogue brexit MEPs from interfering in votes? Isn’t the new budget coming up soon? Can they use it there?

LeinsterDub

briany wrote: »

I'm not sure I understand. In the event where the official parliament is suspended, wouldn't MPs convening somewhere else just be people sitting in a room with no actual power to do anything?

It ultimately would depends on who the courts , civil service and heaven forbid the army recognised as the legitimate government . These things can spin out of control at an alarming pace.

fash

Berserker wrote: »

The deal is not acceptable, as we all know. The EU has closed the door on renegotiating that deal, or so it appears, so no deal it is.

The EU has repeatedly stated it is open to renegotiating the deal - now what additional concessions are you willing to make?

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

They hace significantly reduced the time available to debate and vote, whilst having the impression that they are not stopping parliament.

1st November would have no defence. It is all about giving just enough cover to carry on the farce and avoid being directly blamed.

If that's the reason, it's a very big gamble for a very small gain.It seems to suggest to me that its purpose is to push a 'new' withdrawal agreement through. And it seems to me that this move is specifically aimed at putting huge pressure on parliament rather than the EU.

Water John

Does this 'order' from the Queen, mean that Parliament cannot do otherwise?

Is it Johnson's plan to push WA through without the support of the DUP and then go for a GE?

VinLieger

Water John wrote: »

Does this 'order' from the Queen, mean that Parliament cannot do otherwise?

I believe that technically the opposition can setup a 2nd parliament with a majority of MP's within westminster, they have stated they may use the church thats there?

padd b1975

Enzokk wrote: »

Fixed parliament act, the government cannot call an election unless they lose a VONC or have 2/3 support for a new election.

What kind of opposition is going to pass up on the chance of going into government?


Oh wait.... Corbyn.

VinLieger

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop, and the backstop is the only part the EU does not want to renegotiate.

Border in the Irish sea would be accepted immediately

newport2

I think he's just trying to provoke the circumstances for an early general election. Opposition and lots of remain Tories up in arms. No confidence.

He would be in a good position to go into an election soon, saying the will of the people is being blocked. FTTP gives him a good chance of a majority without the DUP, which opens the door to an EU deal with a border down the Irish sea. He would probably get that through parliament. So Britain gets it's Brexit deal and is free to make a deal with the US and NI remains aligned with the EU.

If he was really trying to railroad through a no deal Brexit, why only suspend until mid-October? Wait until after the 31st.

Whatever he says, Boris cares a lot about his legacy. He does not have the balls to do a no-deal Brexit without a mandate. He would be crucified afterwards and he knows it.

VinLieger

Sterling seems to be holding pretty steady after the drop earlier, guessing the markets are just waiting to see what the next move in this omnishambles will bring.

Larbre34

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

A vote on whether that Irish Sea border is a permanent boundary between the UK and Ireland would be preferable after a no-deal...

A vote by whom.

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Couldn't find the old poll that showed a similar number of Leavers thought that No Deal meant that things stayed the way they are.

Barely one in five thinks that the rest of the public know what will happen with No Deal. There's no way in hell anyone can claim that's a democratic mandate for No Deal.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/public-see-johnson-most-capable-pm-vs-corbyn-ipsos-mori-political-monitor-july-2019

Here's a poll from last week. The question was: "If you had to choose one outcome":

Britain having a new referendum and voting to remain in the EU after all: 35%
Britain leaving the European Union without any deal: 26%
Britain leaving the European Union with an alternative deal that included remaining in the single market and customs union: 17%
Britain accepting the negotiated deal and leaving the European Union on those terms: 7%
Don't know: 15%

If the Don't Knows are removed, 69% want to remain or leave with a deal.

briany

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

A vote on whether that Irish Sea border is a permanent boundary between the UK and Ireland would be preferable after a no-deal...

Sounds like Sinn Fein is the party for you.

CelticRambler

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop

There are plenty of MPs on record saying that they want to re-negotiate more than the backstop. David Davies, for example, has a "shopping list" ...

Larbre34

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The people of Ireland.

I was referring to a border poll.

Never in this maelstrom. Might happen after the dust has settled but i see no path to it before say 2025. Be lucky to get Stormont back before then, never mind something so paradigm changing.

prawnsambo

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I would say that if Bojo calls a snap election there is a considerable chance there will be a nationalist majority of NI MPS - the SDLP need to get their act together if they are serious about this though.

He can't actually call an election. The Fixed Term Parliament Act prevents this. So it looks like he's trying to pressure the opposition and Tory rebels into calling a VONC.

bobmalooka

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So two parliaments in effect? What happens then?

Eventually civil war if they don’t check the path they’re going down

fash

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The only part the UK wants to renegotiate is the backstop, and the backstop is the only part the EU does not want to renegotiate.

The EU is still patiently waiting for the UK's suggested alternative. Remember the "30 days" for example?

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

There are plenty of MPs on record saying that they want to re-negotiate more than the backstop. David Davies, for example, has a "shopping list" ...

60 Tory MPs according to The Telegraph.

CelticRambler

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

"If you had to choose one outcome":

Britain having a new referendum and voting to remain in the EU after all: 35%
Britain leaving the European Union without any deal: 26%
Britain leaving the European Union with an alternative deal that included remaining in the single market and customs union: 17%
Britain accepting the negotiated deal and leaving the European Union on those terms: 7%
Don't know: 15%

That bit in red is why we're on the road to No Deal. Getting the country into a position where either a new referendum or an alternative deal could be proposed would mean seeking yet another extension. On the UK's side, that would hand all of the Tory's votes in Leave constituencies to the Brexit Party; on the EU's side, it would require an immense act of faith and trust in the Tory government to behave like mature statesmen for the good of the country.

Neither is likely.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

That bit in red is why we're on the road to No Deal. Getting the country into a position where either a new referendum or an alternative deal could be proposed would mean seeking yet another extension. On the UK's side, that would hand all of the Tory's votes in Leave constituencies to the Brexit Party; on the EU's side, it would require an immense act of faith and trust in the Tory government to behave like mature statesmen for the good of the country.

Neither is likely.

It's impossible to say what's going to happen at this stage. Three months ago, nobody could have predicted that Britain would be where it is this afternoon. So trying to predict where it will be in three months' time would be equally impossible.

WomanSkirtFan8

Larbre34 wrote: »

Never in this maelstrom. Might happen after the dust has settled but i see no path to it before say 2025. Be lucky to get Stormont back before then, never mind something so paradigm changing.

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

brickster69

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Stop moaning ffs

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

I’m thinking how much of it would be the SoS for NI being instructed from above to say it’s time to have the poll just out of revenge for Ireland being so uncooperative during the brexit crisis.
Leave us deal with the basket case. Our government can’t refuse to hold the ref either as far as I recall