Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

I think the fear of a hard border and renewed violent republican campaign will prompt people to give in and vote for unity.

Equally, fear of renewed Loyalist violence and a renewed British military presence in NI might prompt people to give in and accept a hard border.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's impossible to say what's going to happen at this stage. Three months ago, nobody could have predicted that Britain would be where it is this afternoon. So trying to predict where it will be in three months' time would be equally impossible.

Not to be pedantic, but proroguing parliament has been suggested for a long time (for example, when Bercow refused to allow the WA to go to another vote, a new parliamentary session was widely suggested as a way around that).

But it especially became a real possibility once Teresa May announced her resignation (more than 3 months ago) and Johnson was immediately installed as the assumed next PM

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Well maybe this will get the required result and get them off their asses and actually decide something. Never seen a country arguing with itself for so long and failing to actually come to a decision.

bobmalooka

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

A border poll even though it may very well not happen in the current circumstances for the reasons outlined above but it will deffinately happen somewhere down the road if this farce keeps going the way it is right. The timing of it will be absolutely crucial and the ultimate results of it will be extremely interesting

Not necessarily, they’re abdicating responsibility and reneging on agreements already.
My understanding is that under the GFA a border poll would be called by the secretary for state for NI - and the triggering event was left quite vague. Requiring a degree of acting in good faith - I think it’s fair to say UK politics have given up on such concepts.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Not to be pedantic, but proroguing parliament has been suggested for a long time (for example, when Bercow refused to allow the WA to go to another vote, a new parliamentary session was widely suggested as a way around that).

But it especially became a real possibility once Teresa May announced her resignation (more than 3 months ago) and Johnson was immediately installed as the assumed next PM

Well, the likes of Leadsom, Hancock and Rudd were set against it. Now they seem to have lost their voices. On the 28th of May, nobody could have predicted that PM Johnson, under the direction of Dominic Cummings and with Jacob Rees Mogg as Leader of the House, would get the Queen to suspend parliament for an extraordinary five weeks. Unexpected events are occurring by the hour now, nevermind on a monthly basis.

Stop moaning ffs

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

The Secretary of State can only call it if there is evidence that a majority of the voters in NI support nationalism.

If there’s sufficient evidence there is call for one and evidence it would pass


That’s the criteria.nothing to do with nationalism.

A Dub in Glasgo

brickster69 wrote: »

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Got a link to the SNP court case, the only thing I found is John Major

Itssoeasy

You'd have to assume that the calls for the Taoiseach to recall the Dail will grow deafening and he'll have no choice. It's getting serious now. How has the Queen allowed herself to be drawn into this ? I know she hasn't got "real" powers to use more ceremonial powers but isn't the momarch meant to be above politics ? Has she now put herself into politics now by doing this ?

Laois_Man

Itssoeasy wrote: »

You'd have to assume that the calls for the Taoiseach to recall the Dail will grow deafening and he'll have no choice. It's getting serious now. How has the Queen allowed herself to be drawn into this ? I know she hasn't got "real" powers to use more ceremonial powers but isn't the momarch meant to be above politics ? Has she now put herself into politics now by doing this ?

What is the Dail supposed to do about it?

jem

newport2 wrote: »

If he was really trying to railroad through a no deal Brexit, why only suspend until mid-October? Wait until after the 31st.

Whatever he says, Boris cares a lot about his legacy. He does not have the balls to do a no-deal Brexit without a mandate. He would be crucified afterwards and he knows it.

I actually thought this up to recently however now I believe that he has been convinced that he will go down as the "hero" who brought in the new great age of Uk (England), and that a no deal will actually be great for them. BYTW I think this is total madness.

McGiver

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Shelga wrote: »

Are the headbangers going to turn against their beloved queen if she refuses this?

Brexit is eating itself.

Here is Naomi smith pretty much threatening the Queen

https://twitter.com/chienontheloose/status/1166640648054853632?s=21

She is a republican, she said that publicly, so she's being honest.

Itssoeasy

Laois_Man wrote: »

What is the Dail supposed to do about it?

Well it's our parliament and there have been calls to call it back because of the suspension of the house of commons.

Professor Moriarty

This is the longest suspension of parliament since 1945.

Jizique

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

Also it's more likely than not the Scots will vote for independence at the next referendum if there is a no-deal.

Not sure the democrats in the tories will give them the chance

VinLieger

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well it's our parliament and there have been calls to call it back because of the suspension of the house of commons.

Which wont be happening for another 2 weeks, there's literally nothing for the Dail to do except go round in circles discussing things they cannot affect. This is an EU matter and our representatives at the EU level will handle anything that needs doing including the Taoiseach and Tanaiste, the prorougation changes nothing in that regard

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well it's our parliament and there have been calls to call it back because of the suspension of the house of commons.

and what will they do when back in the Dail?

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’m thinking how much of it would be the SoS for NI being instructed from above to say it’s time to have the poll just out of revenge for Ireland being so uncooperative during the brexit crisis.
Leave us deal with the basket case. Our government can’t refuse to hold the ref either as far as I recall

You can't "revenge" people [sic] into reunifying their country. It's a basket case because of British mismanagment for 100 years.

Every single party in this State - bar Renua - supports reunification as a matter of course. It doesn't even come into question that we wouldn't have a referendum in the event of the North voting "Yes".

ancapailldorcha

I'm incredibly shocked that the Monarch has allowed herself to be drawn into the Brexiters' project like this. It sets a terrifying precedent, frankly that the sovereign might just override Parliament when it's convenient. I know the Queen normally tries to remain outside Politics but her time is coming to an end and her successor might have different ideas.

The Brexit project has been getting less democratic and more totalitarian by the day. Proroguing Parliament like this simply cements the idea that the people of this country should be as far removed from the Brexit process as possible and today represents another step towards that goal.

It's still possible that Johnson is still hoping to force Parliament's hand with this step. The period of prorogation seems mercifully short for possibly that reason. Why the Queen has set this precedent though I can't fathom. I doubt she'll befall the same fate that the last monarch who did something similar in 1642 but she has now politicised herself in a dangerous way for her institution. If Brexit pans out the wrong way, expect the idea of abolishing or restricting the monarchy to edge closer to the political mainstream.

is_that_so

Gunner Jay Davidson wrote: »

Probably nothing as usual...

Eamon Ryan requested it and it is an actual functioning parliament. Makes sense in that TDs can get updates on where we are at.

Stop moaning ffs

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You can't "revenge" people [sic] into reunifying their country. It's a basket case because of British mismanagment for 100 years.

Every single party in this State - bar Renua - supports reunification as a matter of course. It doesn't even come into question that we wouldn't have a referendum in the event of the North voting "Yes".

I agree. I’d love to see you post that in the thread on reunification. The unibots in there would lose their minds.

is_that_so

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm incredibly shocked that the Monarch has allowed herself to be drawn into the Brexiters' project like this. It sets a terrifying precedent, frankly that the sovereign might just override Parliament when it's convenient. I know the Queen normally tries to remain outside Politics but her time is coming to an end and her successor might have different ideas.

The Brexit project has been getting less democratic and more totalitarian by the day. Proroguing Parliament like this simply cements the idea that the people of this country should be as far removed from the Brexit process as possible and today represents another step towards that goal.

It's still possible that Johnson is still hoping to force Parliament's hand with this step. The period of prorogation seems mercifully short for possibly that reason. Why the Queen has set this precedent though I can't fathom. I doubt she'll befall the same fate that the last monarch who did something similar in 1642 but she has now politicised herself in a dangerous way for her institution. If Brexit pans out the wrong way, expect the idea of abolishing or restricting the monarchy to edge closer to the political mainstream.

Legally there doesn't seem to be an issue to reject it and they were due to shut down for the conferences from the middle of September. In the context of Brexit it is a very risky call.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

and what will they do when back in the Dail?

No need for dail to return at all. The optics Of that hands the British tabloids ammunition. We don’t have to do anything. Just sit and leave them to it.

markodaly

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm incredibly shocked that the Monarch has allowed herself to be drawn into the Brexiters' project like this. It sets a terrifying precedent, frankly that the sovereign might just override Parliament when it's convenient. I know the Queen normally tries to remain outside Politics but her time is coming to an end and her successor might have different ideas.

The Brexit project has been getting less democratic and more totalitarian by the day. Proroguing Parliament like this simply cements the idea that the people of this country should be as far removed from the Brexit process as possible and today represents another step towards that goal.

It's still possible that Johnson is still hoping to force Parliament's hand with this step. The period of prorogation seems mercifully short for possibly that reason. Why the Queen has set this precedent though I can't fathom. I doubt she'll befall the same fate that the last monarch who did something similar in 1642 but she has now politicised herself in a dangerous way for her institution. If Brexit pans out the wrong way, expect the idea of abolishing or restricting the monarchy to edge closer to the political mainstream.

She has to take the advice of the PM, that is the precedent that has been set for decades if not centuries.

The opposition MP's now have to come together and give a no-confidence vote in Boris and install someone neutral as PM to change the law regards a No-Deal Brexit by default, then call an election.

They have the numbers, Corbyn needs to swallow some pride and for once do something useful.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here's a poll from last week. The question was: "If you had to choose one outcome":

Britain having a new referendum and voting to remain in the EU after all: 35%
Britain leaving the European Union without any deal: 26%
Britain leaving the European Union with an alternative deal that included remaining in the single market and customs union: 17%
Britain accepting the negotiated deal and leaving the European Union on those terms: 7%
Don't know: 15%

If the Don't Knows are removed, 69% want to remain or leave with a deal.

So excluding don't knows, it is 42% remain, 58% some sort of leave. Of course it doesn't tell us whether, for example, those who voted leave on the negotiated deal would vote to remain if they could not get their initial choice.

Leroy42

brickster69 wrote: »

Bloody hell. Remainers are imploding left right and centre over here.

Now the SNP are seeking an urgent hearing in the Scottish courts tomorrow to stop the proroguing of Parliament - an order that has just been approved by the Queen.

Brexiteers are in the process of sidelining the democratically elected HoC simply because they won't agree to what they want.

And you think peoples who voted remain are imploding?

johnson is about the make a person vote for their MP pointless, giving them no say over their own future.:mad:

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well maybe this will get the required result and get them off their asses and actually decide something. Never seen a country arguing with itself for so long and failing to actually come to a decision.

I agree, it is not the peoples fault that we have had a bunch of idiots in parliament.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

I agree, it is not the peoples fault that we have had a bunch of idiots in parliament.

Well it actually is. By definition.

VinLieger

brickster69 wrote: »

I agree, it is not the peoples fault that we have had a bunch of idiots in parliament.

Tts entirely the peoples fault, they elected them.......

ancapailldorcha

is_that_so wrote: »

Legally there doesn't seem to be an issue to reject it and they were due to shut down for the conferences from the middle of September. In the context of Brexit it is a very risky call.

I suspect it'll make little, if any tangible impact on the Brexit process. However, it's odd that the Queen would let herself be dragged into this for no apparent reason. Her interests would have been better served by staying away from this mess in my opinion.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

So excluding don't knows, it is 42% remain, 58% some sort of leave. Of course it doesn't tell us whether, for example, those who voted leave on the negotiated deal would vote to remain if they could not get their initial choice.

No, with the Don't Knows removed it's:

Ref and Remain: 41%
No Deal: 31%
Deal with SM and CU: 20%
WA: 8%


So 69% want to remain or a deal. This is the poll.