Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

Berserker wrote: »

If their is another vote, I firmly believe that it'll be a stronger 'Yes' this time round. I really do. Immigration was the decider, I agree. Was talking to a solicitor about this today and he is amazed by the lack of prep here for a large influx of EU citizens. Will be interesting to see how things go here if we have to deal with a large influx of EU nationals along with a recession.

As well as deciding there will be a stronger Yes vote, you have decided we are having a recession.

Anything to back this up...anything at all?

Foghladh

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Well this bit of news is interesting and very timely.

160 MPs have signed up to a pledge to take part in an unofficial alternative parliament which is to be held in a building outside the confines of the HoC. This will appear to take place when the party conference season is taking place in the UK. Over 40 MPs are needed to take part in an unofficial parliament in the UK to allow it become a parliament. BJ does need to attend this parliament because there will no PMQs taking place in it while it is in session.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/27/mps-pledge-form-alternative-parliament-prorogation-church-house-declaration-brexit

I liked the bit where Jeremy Corbyn couldn't attend because he was stuck in a meeting

is_that_so

Foghladh wrote: »

I liked the bit where Jeremy Corbyn couldn't attend because he was stuck in a meeting

If Labour had had anyone, with just a little bit of backbone Boris would not be throwing so many shapes.

Stop moaning ffs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

With the recent rise in dissident republican activity, you don't need to look far to see what could derail any trend towards a UI.

Been shaking my head at that. The ones doing this stuff aren’t exactly keeping up on the whats actually happening. They just see the British closing the walls and they’re reacting like they idiots they are. But they don’t vote anyways. The middle which is the majority does.

Guy in Monaghan yesterday arrested with four armed guns. I’ve no doubt it’s about to kick off to some degree but not on the scale of previous.
If you’re getting caught with handguns by the gardai who have a better eye on it all than when bombs causing billions in damage at the stock exchange were, you’re cause is screwed.

The competency and support an training isn’t there. It never will be again.

This is why the rise of violence is a myth especially when used against a UI

joe40

Berserker wrote: »

Aside : If there was another vote and it was a 'Yes' in NI, what would people think about that?



The remainers may want to present it in that manner but a no deal Brexit has always been the only viable Brexit for the UK. The EU was never and will never let anyone leave with a deal that favours the party that is departing. It'd be suicide on their part. TMs deal kept the UK tied to the EU, which conflicts with the openness that they want to achieve post Brexit.

People are starting to search EU law for ways to stop this now. Think about that for a moment in the context of Brexit.



I don't get that. You've a minority who've always had that view. You've a minority of Irish people with a strong hatred for everything British. The majority on both sides will get on just fine. The politicians are bickering because their careers are on the line. Ireland will go into a recession post Brexit and FG will suffer at the ballot box. We all know that.



If their is another vote, I firmly believe that it'll be a stronger 'Yes' this time round. I really do. Immigration was the decider, I agree. Was talking to a solicitor about this today and he is amazed by the lack of prep here for a large influx of EU citizens. Will be interesting to see how things go here if we have to deal with a large influx of EU nationals along with a recession.

Why will there be a large influx of EU citizens here post Brexit?

swampgas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’m no legal expert but it looks like Johnson and Cummings covered all the legal bases in the United but didn’t fully think this through legally in European terms. A wordy read but maybe some here can break it down for us

https://twitter.com/saffiya_khan1/status/1166792744427294721?s=21

Possibly (and I'm just guessing here) the EU moving on Article 7 could be a convenient fig leaf to use when refusing another extension.

LeinsterDub

joe40 wrote: »

Why will there be a large influx of EU citizens here post Brexit?

Most likely not unless they've an extremely good job lined up as they'll not be able to afford to live here

Stop moaning ffs

swampgas wrote: »

Possibly (and I'm just guessing here) the EU moving on Article 7 could be a convenient fig leaf to use when refusing another extension.

Ohh. Never considered that. That makes all the sense no?
Let’s be done with this. Leave them to it kinda thing

j8wk2feszrnpao

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As well as deciding there will be a stronger Yes vote, you have decided we are having a recession.

Anything to back this up...anything at all?

We're gong to suffer a recession due to Brexit, but also get a large influx of EU citizens? Cause people often flock to countries that are losing jobs and cutbacks for social expenditure.

Logic has truly flown the coop. Just throw out statements with no facts or basis in reality. It's just easier to laugh and shrug your shoulders.

BorneTobyWilde

The Queen is being used as a pawn in a game of political chess. She had no say in the matter though, she gave Boris the power to request this of her.

Professor Moriarty

is_that_so wrote: »

If Labour had had anyone, with just a little bit of backbone Boris would not be throwing so many shapes.

If Labour had anyone other than Corbyn, there wouldn't be a Johnson.

mickoneill31

joe40 wrote: »

Why will there be a large influx of EU citizens here post Brexit?

In my company I've had a small influx of UK citizens.
One Scottish guy works on my team. He wanted to get out prior to March 29th (as after Brexit he'd have had restrictions on bringing his dogs). He loves it here now. He had his job lined up prior to moving and his missus got a job she likes easily enough.

He finds it much friendlier over here and so far thinks the education system for his kids is way better. He was telling me he went back for a wedding and his brother was asking if he'd come back home. "not in a million years chief".

Admittedly where he was living in Scotland sounds like a ****hole.

Professor Moriarty

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

The Queen is being used as a pawn in a game of political chess. She had no say in the matter though, she gave Boris the power to request this of her.

She's 93. She doesn't give a crap.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's great drama alright. Here's a question though: i take it this does nothing to stop a VONC being held on Tuesday next, or any day up to the conference/prorogation break?

No, a VONC can go ahead but prorogation makes things much tighter. The problem is finding an alternative PM that enough MPs will support in a much tighter time frame.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If Labour had anyone other than Corbyn, there wouldn't be a Johnson.

Arguably there wouldn't have been a leave vote.

An Ciarraioch

munstermagic11 wrote: »

We're gong to suffer a recession due to Brexit, but also get a large influx of EU citizens? Cause people often flock to countries that are losing jobs and cutbacks for social expenditure.

Logic has truly flown the coop. Just throw out statements with no facts or basis in reality. It's just easier to laugh and shrug your shoulders.

Assuming it's Ireland he's talking about, there was net immigration of about 34k in 2018-19, the same as 2017-18, and 12k of that was from the EU:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Arguably there wouldn't have been a leave vote.

I think definitely not.

j8wk2feszrnpao

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Assuming it's Ireland he's talking about, there was net immigration of about 34k in 2018-19, the same as 2017-18, and 12k of that was from the EU:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

Cause we’re doing quite well.
How logic dictates we’ll see a surge in those figures during a terrible recession (which usual results in emigration), only unicorn believers can explain that.

prawnsambo

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Cause we’re doing quite well.
How logic dictates we’ll see a surge in those figures during a terrible recession (which usual results in emigration), only unicorn believers can explain that.

There is one scenario where it works. The UK hard brexits, Rampant recession, inflation and job losses mount. With the loss of FoM, their only exit is via the CTA to Ireland. They're not quite EU immigrants, but close enough.

Stop moaning ffs

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Assuming it's Ireland he's talking about, there was net immigration of about 34k in 2018-19, the same as 2017-18, and 12k of that was from the EU:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

We’ve 103,000+ British living here and the number moving here is rising. It’ll be a nice break from the racism against African immigrants when that section of boards an society switches to the brits coming here takin our jobs blah blah. for a change.

Calina

Berserker wrote: »

Boris has been one of the most prominent Brexiters since the result was announced. TM was hesitant about Brexit all along. She never even brought up the option of a no deal Brexit in Brussels. Barnier confirmed this a few months ago.
.

Boris, the boy who wrote a pro and an anti Brexit article?

And was ashen faced the day of the result?

That Boris Johnson?

An Ciarraioch

A chilling Telegraph front page:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1166815977989967877

Mr.Nice Guy

Nice opening from Newsnight about the previous stance of Brexiters on proroguing parliament:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1166826812577632257

In the words of Groucho Marx, "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them I have others."

briany

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If Labour had anyone other than Corbyn, there wouldn't be a Johnson.

Corbyn is being extraordinarily ineffectual in all this. It's pretty amazing to watch. Instead of taking positive action during the suspension of parliament, I half expect him to take long melancholy walks, listen to The Smiths and wonder aloud why the world won't let him be caretaker PM.

biggebruv

I’m completely out of the loop on this shameful I know but since it’s getting closer is a no deal brexit bad for us or for the uk?

MarinersBlues

All day the BBC have been pushing the line that the EU are moving to make a deal with the UK due to Boris's stunt this morning.

Where are they getting this from?
They're hasn't been a sliver of an hint of the EU changing their position.

briany

Calina wrote: »

Boris, the boy who wrote a pro and an anti Brexit article?

And was ashen faced the day of the result?

That Boris Johnson?

I don't remember him being ashen-faced, but then again he fecked off so quickly on the day that it was hard to discern any aspects of his physical state.

Forty Seven

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I do wonder in what way how the British electorate will take stock of this idea from BJ & his government.

A lot of these people are not stupid though in not seeing the woods for the trees. If they voted for remain in the original EU referendum. The level of potential damage coming from an extended suspension of parliament could be catastrophic & unnecessary. All of the important laws now cannot be made for the people of the UK for the next 5 weeks. The local councils in England & parliaments in Wales & Scotland cannot be passed either. That, to my mind, sounds completely mind numbing & depressing from the UK's goverments POV. BJ is really having his cake & eating it by heaving his country into an unstoppable & unpalatable oblivion. From my perspective he has done his job & done it well if this opinion was thought came about from a super rich & wealthy UK tory party member/voter.

For other UK party voters though who mainly vote for opposition parties; that message could appear to become very different to their eyes & ears. There is no method in their minds to suggest that this idea from BJ & the monarchy would become sensible. The level of anger who voted for Remain & voted leave by mistake in the 1st referendum could be ferocious in that they will do everything in their power, if an election was called & a referendum afterwards, to vote for parties that do not in any way relate to the word 'Tory' or 'Brexit Party' under any circumstance.

They will give the ruling party a relevant stance & message by saying words or opinions that they will never ever extend an opportunity to vote for the tories ever again. And the impact that could come across with expressing that message could become very widespread to the point that Britain will be very close to verging on the edge of imploding itself into an even bigger disaster than that was ever predicted if the reality of a no-deal Brexit is real for the UK. If an early election was called; the idea that BJ could become PM with a huge mandate by the UK electorate is just a farcical idea now because it will never happen in the eyes & ears of the British electorate who want to treat their own country with the respect & treatment that it deserves in allowing it to not go ahead with Brexit at all. Labour & Lib Dems could actually have the potential here to really take up a huge share of the Tory vote if the prospect of an election & referendum in my mind was real.

Everyone loses if Brexit becomes reality on the 31st of October. If they eventually cannot see the woods for the trees; well they will become a lost cause.

I can't think of any laws or policy that will be urgently required in the next 5 weeks, we've been bumbling along for a few centuries with a fairly comprehensive bunch of laws. A few weeks worth of lost tweaks will be neither here nor there really, might even be beneficial.


As for this killing the Tories, I expect the opposite. This will kill the Brexit party. They were about to decimate the Tories because nothing was being done, BJ has just finished them street fighter style. The Lib Dems are a laughing stock that picked up some protest votes in the recent Euros but the Brexit party stormed it. Labour are adrift with no rudder, no power and no idea how to deal with the hurricane they find themselves in. BJ has cart blanche here. Something had to give and here we go over the edge.



The cards will fall where the cards will fall but you are as wrong as you could be with your assessment. You assume a majority want to remain. This country is split 50/50. That's why this is so problematic and drastic. Parties divided, parliament divided, electorate divided even the monarchy is under fire even though they have absolutely nothing to do with it. It is a farce, folded into a comedy and wrapped in a tragedy. God only knows where this will end.

10000maniacs

MarinersBlues wrote: »

All day the BBC have been pushing the line that the EU are moving to make a deal with the UK due to Boris's stunt this morning.

Where are they getting this from?
They're hasn't been a sliver of an hint of the EU changing their position.

They are not getting it from anyone. How many times have you seen a BBC interviewer reacting with exasperation at Irish politicians insistence on a backstop?
They always come back with "If the Irish don't want a border and the UK don't want a border, why put up a border? They simply don't understand the gravity of the division on this issue.

prawnsambo

MarinersBlues wrote: »

All day the BBC have been pushing the line that the EU are moving to make a deal with the UK due to Boris's stunt this morning.

Where are they getting this from?
They're hasn't been a sliver of an hint of the EU changing their position.

It's the old "Fog in channel, continent cut off" mentality. The EU must be doing something because our little psychodrama has ramped up a notch.