Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How are they not being hung out to dry over their own words? It so completely appalling

The presenter on Sky said that none of them are available for comment since yesterday.

Perhaps they're reeling from the shock? :rolleyes:

JRM being asked "why such a long period - five weeks - when the normal duration is only 5-10 days?" He says it's not really five weeks, because you can't count the three weeks of the conference season ... :rolleyes:

VinLieger

CelticRambler wrote: »

The presenter on Sky said that none of them are available for comment since yesterday.

Perhaps they're reeling from the shock? :rolleyes:

Cummings has them tied and gagged in the downing street cellar more likely

kuro68k

It's happening again, the next Windrush scandal.

https://news.sky.com/video/anti-prorogation-protester-i-looked-after-your-children-now-you-kick-me-out-11796458

careless sherpa

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

Ireland isn't forecast to go into a recession because of Brexit. Growth won't be as high. But the border counties are the poorest here. There's no study to link to sorry. There has been a lot of money flushed away. We have no way to measure it though.

Ireland doesn't need a deal for its survival. The UK is in trouble without one. The Conservative government's 'red lines' have to be crossed.

If Johnson wants to crash the UK out of the EU and put a hard border in place, that's on them. It won't be Ireland's fault.

A lot of the negative impacts of Brexit can be offset by an investment programme in the border counties which to date simply hasn't produced benefits. They are areas of economic disadvantage but beyond that they are areas with lower life expectancy rates

careless sherpa

VinLieger wrote: »

Cummings has them tied and gagged in the downing street cellar more likely

Standard Saturday night there

firemansam4

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

prawnsambo

kuro68k wrote: »

It's happening again, the next Windrush scandal.

https://news.sky.com/video/anti-prorogation-protester-i-looked-after-your-children-now-you-kick-me-out-11796458

I saw that. And then saw this. My mind truly boggled, but he definitely tweeted it. Not sure what to think.

seamus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Just been listening to JRM (on Sky) poo-poohing, in the haughtiest tones, the notion that proroging parliament has anything to with Brexit. With a perfectly straight face, he says it's entirely driven by Boris Johnson's desire to enact new legislation regarding hospitals, schools, policing, etc.

As if the type of Brexit undertaken by the UK wasn't going to have any at all effect on those areas ... :rolleyes:

Yes, the kind of legislation that will restrict hospitals & schools to UK nationals only and give the police draconian arrest powers, all in the name of national security in the face of civil unrest.

JRM is a criminal. The entire ERG needs to be jailed and investigated.

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

It's catch-22 tbh. The EU can be blamed for not "letting" the UK leave, but if they pull the rug, they'll be blamed for "sabotaging" Brexit. Brexit is cult now, impervious to logic. The best the EU can do is get its own house in order and be prepared. One way or another the nationalists will blame the EU for the mess that's to follow, so the EU needs to do what's best for the EU and let the UK sink under its own steam.

Shelga

CelticRambler wrote: »

The presenter on Sky said that none of them are available for comment since yesterday.

Perhaps they're reeling from the shock? :rolleyes:

JRM being asked "why such a long period - five weeks - when the normal duration is only 5-10 days?" He says it's not really five weeks, because you can't count the three weeks of the conference season ... :rolleyes:

If it’s just about starting a new parliamentary session, then why is the prorogation not lasting just a couple of days? How this charlatan can say these things with a straight face is beyond me. It’s so blatantly a calculated attempt to minimise the time available for debate as much as possible, while still being able to pretend that parliament will have enough time to do what they need to do.

That said, why didn’t Labour and the Liberal Democrats cancel their stupid conferences months ago. It was obvious that the clock was being run down and they would come back in September with absolutely nothing having been achieved over the summer. Now they’ve just provided hardline Brexiters with a reasonable sounding “oh parliament will be off for 3 weeks anyway” excuse to shut down democracy.

Disgraceful from both sides- the hardline extremism from the government, and the complete lack of ANYTHING being done by the opposition.

I think a no-deal Brexit is inevitable at this point.

is_that_so

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

The EU will sit this latest mess out, as they consider it internal. 31st October and some form of an orderly exit would be their next real involvement with Britain. Failing that it's Out, Out, Out.

Seasoft

I read in one UK paper how self-harming is prevalent in immigration detention centres as a means to get attention. 
Then a few minutes later I read
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7405143/Now-EU-know-really-Boris-Johnson-tells-ministers.html
If the intention of the suspension of parliament is to get the EU's attention then it must be the greatest case of such self-harming on record.

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

The presenter on Sky said that none of them are available for comment since yesterday.

Perhaps they're reeling from the shock? :rolleyes:

JRM being asked "why such a long period - five weeks - when the normal duration is only 5-10 days?" He says it's not really five weeks, because you can't count the three weeks of the conference season ... :rolleyes:

Kate Hooey was on Newstalk this morning saying the same thing basically. What they forget to mention that while the House of Commons is stood down during conference season, the House of Lords is still going about their business. With this move now both Houses are stood down, unfortunately this as not really been picked up yet by journalists asking the questions.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Ignacius wrote: »

This seems to be the opinion floatedaround by Mogg et al.

Mog is a bad enough insult. Maybe it's only a Cork thing? But being called a mog was a serious f you. I find that really funny.

A bit like Bernard Langer. It's a strong curse in the name.

Shelga

Thanks for that Enzokk, didn’t realise it shuts down the House of Lords too.

No one is asking Mogg- if this is the longest running parliament in 400 years, then what difference does waiting til November make to beginning a new session?

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

Thanks for that Enzokk, didn’t realise it shuts down the House of Lords too.

No one is asking Mogg- if this is the longest running parliament in 400 years, then what difference does waiting til November make to beginning a new session?

You have to wonder why so many people who are much more informed about this are so up in arms about it when they have no skin in the game, unlike opposition MPs who you would expect to make a mountain out of a molehill.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1166968906881409025?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1166970763125149698?s=20

There was always the chance of MPs voting to cancel the conference recess as well but it seems like it will be done for this stunt.

joe40

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

Enzokk

We have had many tweets of cabinet ministers that have stated how undemocratic proroguing parliament would be, but what of Johnson himself? What was his view on it?

https://twitter.com/Sandbach/status/1166749095723245568?s=20

So there is one item where he has gone against what he said. I think it will not be the last one, a liar and charlatan will lie and deceive and this is what Johnson is. Once this is normalized then going back on either not going for an election or the Withdrawal Agreement will be easier.

Infini

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

There's no need for that honestly, better to wait till Oct 31, let the ticking clock squeeze the Brexiteer idiots like a slowly closing vice all the while saying that only by agreeing to the WA can they leave with a deal while making clear that if they crash out that any agreement they eventually get will be far worse for them than the one currently on the table.

The only way they truly have of stopping all this is to vote to withdraw A50 and face down the faults and ignorant stupidity rotting away in their house otherwise it's essentially Yugoslavia 2.0: Brexit Bogaloo.

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

To be clear their behaviour in all this basically make's a backstop a red line issue for any agreement with the EU, the border is too porous, too big and too many bad historical connotations associated with it to be anywhere like a normal border, not to mention the views of the majority there are being stifled by the DUP ignoring them for their own political interests. In addition it's a fallback mechanism that is simply necessary because the Brits are basically politically and diplomatically bankrupt from all their behaviour, the only choice they has is to either limit to NI or all of the UK now. Crashing out wont get rid of it if anything it becomes the price of any new agreement which could even be less favourable because once you poison the well like that it only ends badly for the instigating party (Conservatives/UK).

As for your own financial situation all any of us can recomend is to get any saving you have outta there and deposit it in an Irish bank (in euros) at least and keep doing so until this is all over because sterling will take a massive dump in the event of a no deal and could likely see another 20%+ of it's value wiped out thanks to these incompetent deadweights. You mightn't be able to prevent yourself taking a hit from these tools but you can at least still make moves now to negate some of the damage.

Peregrinus

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

Depends on the compromise.

If the compromise is still going to work effectively to prevent a hard border, yeah, go for that. It's a no-brainer. Great for us.

But if not, go for no-deal. The reason being:

- whichever choice we make, we end up with a hard border; but

- in a no-deal situation, we still have considerable leverage over the UK to get them to do what they need to do, and make the choices they need to make, to remove the hard border. Whereas if we accept a deal that results in a hard border, we're stuffed. That's a permanent hard border.

robinph

Enzokk wrote: »

Kate Hooey was on Newstalk this morning saying the same thing basically. What they forget to mention that while the House of Commons is stood down during conference season, the House of Lords is still going about their business. With this move now both Houses are stood down, unfortunately this as not really been picked up yet by journalists asking the questions.

There was also the suggestion a couple of days ago that the conference close down would have been cancelled in some form. Most of the people at the conferences are not MP's, and they are not all at the same time so that they can get maximum media coverage for each party during the conferences. Bit of rescheduling and such like and the MP's could easily have kept turning up to Westminster to do their jobs during those weeks.

Enzokk

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

Is that not like asking to pick your poison? Either one will be bad, it is about the consequences. So the time limit will only prolong the uncertainty whereas a no-deal would be a shock and then we have time to recover. I think the time limit will be worse, we will still end up at the same state as no-deal most likely and the EU will have lost politically if they go back on the backstop. So that is a double whammy for us as a weakened EU is bad for Ireland.

Stop moaning ffs

This went under the radar but buzzfeed have Boris’ next moves. It’s going to get worse

Boris Johnson Is Planning A Series Of Extreme Measures In The Coming Weeks To Force Through Brexit

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

J Mysterio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As it might help deliver a no-deal Brexit thus keeping those nasty Taigs in their place, the DUP are happy with the idea of suspending parliament...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/arlene-foster-and-dup-welcome-johnson-s-move-to-suspend-uk-parliament-1.4000016

Well, they have been happy to suspend the NI government for a world record duration, and it's nice for them if UK go ahead and do it too. We're just the same, they say. 'Sometimes you have to abuse the system to get your way', they say.

Laois_Man

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

A free trade agreement will also result in the need for a hard border. But Brexiterta are allowed go on British media and say things to the effect that if the stupid Irish would just let us get to the trade talks, it would all be sorted out there....and they’re allowed to get away with it!

Jizique

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really think the EU needs to pull the rug from under all of this now and just declare that the UK has completely lost the run of themselves in what was supposed to be an extention period to help them pass the WA.
We (The EU) should just come out and say that by the end of let's say next week the extention will be withdrawn and the UK will have to leave without a deal.

It will hurt all of the EU especially us in Ireland very much but I think the UK will have no choice but come running back for some sort of deal when the reality of Brexit starts kicking in for them.

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1166743470977015810

Not sure about that - maybe Davis (and Boris) will be proved right and the EU will bow at the last minute; Merkel is particularly keen on a deal it seems

J Mysterio

Thought just occurred to me is... Will the UK have enough police to divert English/ Scottish police to NI? Seems to me they might have enough trouble to keep them occupied 'on the mainland'. Police numbers are already significantly down, hence Johnson's pledge to increase numbers - but these take time and money to train. Need the applicants too...

is_that_so

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This went under the radar but buzzfeed have Boris’ next moves. It’s going to get worse

Boris Johnson Is Planning A Series Of Extreme Measures In The Coming Weeks To Force Through Brexit

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

It could well be kite flying, just as we get around budget time. Cummings is certainly following the Bannon approach of throwing anything out there.

Podge_irl

Jizique wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1166743470977015810

Not sure about that - maybe Davis (and Boris) will be proved right and the EU will bow at the last minute; Merkel is particularly keen on a deal it seems

Everyone is keen on a deal. Just one that conforms to the parameters that have been set out and none of the suggestions popping up do that.

Honestly, at this stage thinking the EU might fold at the last minute involves removing all sense of logic, understanding and history of the situation.

Calina

Jizique wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1166743470977015810

Not sure about that - maybe Davis (and Boris) will be proved right and the EU will bow at the last minute; Merkel is particularly keen on a deal it seems

Merkel's position has not changed. The last minute was back in March.

is_that_so

Calina wrote: »

Merkel's position has not changed. The last minute was back in March.

They are all still keen to explore any kind of a deal and will be up to Oct 31. No deal is not a deal.