Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Laois_Man

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This went under the radar but buzzfeed have Boris’ next moves. It’s going to get worse

Boris Johnson Is Planning A Series Of Extreme Measures In The Coming Weeks To Force Through Brexit

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-brexit-extreme-measures

That was posted yesterday

I don’t see it as worse. I say I good! I want them to crash out.....temporarily! It’ll do everyone the power of good for them to get a dose of reality!

joe40

Enzokk wrote: »

Is that not like asking to pick your poison? Either one will be bad, it is about the consequences. So the time limit will only prolong the uncertainty whereas a no-deal would be a shock and then we have time to recover. I think the time limit will be worse, we will still end up at the same state as no-deal most likely and the EU will have lost politically if they go back on the backstop. So that is a double whammy for us as a weakened EU is bad for Ireland.

It is to a certain extent been asked to pick our poison and we have been put in this position due to British Brexiteers which is unforgivable.
But the vote has happened so I think Brexit will happen so there will eventually be checks of some sort on the Border even with the backstop.

I don't think it will anything like the border of the past which was in relation to the security situation. I just don't think there will be a return to that level of violence. The current dissidents do not have anywhere near the same expertise or organisation that the IRA developed over the years. International terrorism has changed so there would be no external help.

I live in Donegal so am familiar with the Border, I grew up with customs checks, hiding the bottle of whiskey at Christmas time, they weren't that bad.

The border may be invisible at the moment but it is still there and still very real, will checks on goods really have such a big impact.

I know this is a minority opinion so totally accept I may be wrong but a "No Deal" exit also has massive potential for damage and upheaval.

Can someone fill me in on whether these things are possible?

He gets a vote of no confidence, wins an election and ditches the dup and does a sea border.
He puts so much pressure on parliament that they accept the current deal.

If so, I'd let him try that and refuse an extension if requested. I have no idea if that's good. I just don't think he's gonna crash out.

LuckyLloyd

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

We must not assent to any hardening of the border. As such, No Deal is better for us strategically than any dilution of the backstop.

I sympathise with your personal situation but you have had years to get ready and the political situation has been deteriorating in the UK for a long time now.

PropJoe10

The adult in the room has spoken again: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-ken-clarke-savages-boris-19027034.amp

I hope the Tory backbenchers put their party loyalties aside and work to block this No Deal crusade.

Stop moaning ffs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can someone fill me in on whether these things are possible?

He gets a vote of no confidence, wins an election and ditches the dup and does a sea border.
He puts so much pressure on parliament that they accept the current deal.

If so, I'd let him try that and refuse an extension if requested. I have no idea if that's good. I just don't think he's gonna crash out.

I think the first is likely but everything’s up the air now. But he could comfortably get the WA through the house If the border is in the sea I think

Stop moaning ffs

There’s been a resignation. Lord young. Not sure what that means?

Limpy

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

I know the BS is an insurance policy so time limit negates that but a "no deal" will result in everything the backstop is designed to avoid happening anyway.

I do understand the issues but from a purely personal perspective I will be severely affected by sterling collapse so this is a real financial worry.

Get behind Boris. He says the UK will be fine. Your money will be safe in his hands.

Popeleo

joe40 wrote: »

It is to a certain extent been asked to pick our poison and we have been put in this position due to British Brexiteers which is unforgivable.
But the vote has happened so I think Brexit will happen so there will eventually be checks of some sort on the Border even with the backstop.

I don't think it will anything like the border of the past which was in relation to the security situation. I just don't think there will be a return to that level of violence. The current dissidents do not have anywhere near the same expertise or organisation that the IRA developed over the years. International terrorism has changed so there would be no external help.

I live in Donegal so am familiar with the Border, I grew up with customs checks, hiding the bottle of whiskey at Christmas time, they weren't that bad.

The border may be invisible at the moment but it is still there and still very real, will checks on goods really have such a big impact.

I know this is a minority opinion so totally accept I may be wrong but a "No Deal" exit also has massive potential for damage and upheaval.

No deal is absolutely the worst outcome in the short term. The only saving grace is that it will cause so much damage to the UK that they will want to negotiate a new deal in a hurry - and the EU
will insist on the backstop, divorce payment and EU citizens' rights as part of any deal.

The whole raison d'etre of the backstop is that the EU never trusted the UK about the border and that they would use peace and the all-Ireland economy as bargaining chips in trade negotiations or just ignore Ireland, sign trade deals with the US for bad food etc, which leads to a hard border.

The only reasons for the UK to refuse to accept a NI-only backstop are that they have no confidence in their "alternative arrangements" or they have no intention of having an open border. Time limits change nothing apart from the date a border goes up.

Stop moaning ffs

Davidson’s resignation letter.


https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/1167010124667527168?s=21

devnull

Been reading through a fair few sources this morning and I'm shocked by some of the tactics that I have seen muted in various places, which basically appear to be what you would expect from a dictator and someone power crazed who has no morals, perhaps that shouldnt surprise me, but it shows you how far things have fallen.

Some of the things I've seen suggested include
- Killing bills they don't like and forcing them to be tabled a second time
- Massive flillibusting by the ERG in any debate that takes place to prevent any proper Parlimentary debate
- Ignoring any legislation that is passed that does not go their way as it's not the will of the people
- In the Queens speech, announcing a lot of stuff that requires new commons debates, such as budgets, reducing time for Brexit debate
- Filling the House of Lords with many many pro-Brexit peers to make sure legislation does not pass there.
- Creating new public holiday days and house sitting rules to stop Parliament sitting days they should be
- Exploring how they can pressure the Queen to refuse to enact any legislation in law.

Any one of these things are a disgrace and it's clear that tin pot dictators are now in charge and are so crazed by their wishes that they will do anything to get them. This is a very dangerous time for the UK and the country could end up in a Civil War. They are the political equivlent of a mad scientist and they really have to be stopped if the UK is to have any chance. If they do this with Brexit, what is stopping them from doing so every time someone opposs their desires?

josip

Infini wrote: »

The only way they truly have of stopping all this is to vote to withdraw A50 and face down the faults and ignorant stupidity rotting away in their house otherwise it's essentially Yugoslavia 2.0: Brexit Bogaloo.

I don't agree fully with the Yugoslavia analogies.
The fracture lines in Yugoslavia were almost entirely geographical.
Sometimes, those lines neatly matched state boundaries.
In Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo, the fracture lines were more localised, but everyone still knew which towns/villages were Croat/Muslim/Serb.

Within England however, the fracture lines are not geographically based, but individually based.
Families are incredibly divided on this issue and it will only get worse from now on if a No Deal Brexit occurs on the 31st of October.
I think England is currently more analogous to post Treaty Ireland.

If the UK does splinter as a result of Brexit, then I would liken Scotland initially to Macedonia, worse off than the rump from which it had just separated, but at relative peace with itself.
Northern Ireland has the potential to be Bosnia all over again, stuck in an economic doldrum/limbo, but a naively optimistic Republic may ultimately rescue it from that fate, but at great personal cost.
England could end up even worse than Northern Ireland as wealth inequality and social unrest increases.

J Mysterio

kuro68k wrote: »

It's happening again, the next Windrush scandal.

https://news.sky.com/video/anti-prorogation-protester-i-looked-after-your-children-now-you-kick-me-out-11796458

That really made the hair stand up.

Enzokk

Just on the proroguing and it being business as usual as said by Rees-Mogg and Hooey, this is not true in the strictest sense. There has been no recess voted on for the conference season yet so this is not just extending a break by a few days. MPs could have voted against the motion for the recess and they could have been sitting this time.

https://twitter.com/RuthFox01/status/1166781679714930689?s=20

Seth Brundle

Berserker wrote: »

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As it might help deliver a no-deal Brexit thus keeping those nasty Taigs in their place, the DUP are happy with the idea of suspending parliament...
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/arlene-foster-and-dup-welcome-johnson-s-move-to-suspend-uk-parliament-1.4000016

An atrociously inaccurate statement. They are in their current position, i.e. completely irrelevant because of their own archaic and stubborn attitude towards parliament. If they decided to move with the times and take their seats in London, they'd be a key player in Brexit and you know it.

Who are irrelevant? The DUP? How could they be irrelevant if they are currently needed to support the Tories stay in power?

If you're referring to SF, then that's been discussed over and over. SF voting on a topic in Westminster could force many MPs to vote the other way purely so as to be seen to be going against SF. I don't necessarily agree with the SF stance of standing in an election for a parliament that they dn't recognise but the reality is that the people of NI chose them (over SDLP, Alliance or whatever) knowing that they would not swear an oath to the queen.

J Mysterio

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Davidson’s resignation letter.


https://twitter.com/ruthdavidsonmsp/status/1167010124667527168?s=21

Disappointing resignation letter to be honest. She had an opportunity to add to the pressure on Johnson, but abdicated it to secure her legacy within the Conservatives.

trellheim

K some thoughts


1. This is nothing to do with no-deal, and everything to get a deal
2. to get a deal - need to remove time and space so that a deal is the only possible outcome
3. How to do - prorogue - part 1
4. part 2 - EUCO Oct 17 and return with WA minus something
5. Present fait accompli , refuse to extend , force HoC into voting for it , bang, brexit delivered, call GE , win majority
6. ( Why - very little noise from ERG ... .watch what the magicians hands are not doing, at the moment dead-catting is all over the place )

J Mysterio

This will then be one of Davidson's last comments to the media as Scottish Tory leader:

"Both the Prime Minister and I - and I can't stress this enough - are completely as one on the fact that the primary objective of the government is to get a deal across the line."

At 00:18

J Mysterio

Papers from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland etc. describing this heinous Government's actions as a 'coup', a constitutional crisis and likening the move to what caused the last civil war in the UK.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/boris-jonhnson-parliament-suspend-no-deal-brexit-europe-newspapers-a9083291.html

Its comforting to know this scandalous move by Tory fascists is being correctly reported throughout Europe. These villains might be able to fool half the UK, but we see what they are doing for what it is.

Jizique

joe40 wrote: »

It is to a certain extent been asked to pick our poison and we have been put in this position due to British Brexiteers which is unforgivable.
But the vote has happened so I think Brexit will happen so there will eventually be checks of some sort on the Border even with the backstop.

I don't think it will anything like the border of the past which was in relation to the security situation. I just don't think there will be a return to that level of violence. The current dissidents do not have anywhere near the same expertise or organisation that the IRA developed over the years. International terrorism has changed so there would be no external help.

I live in Donegal so am familiar with the Border, I grew up with customs checks, hiding the bottle of whiskey at Christmas time, they weren't that bad.

The border may be invisible at the moment but it is still there and still very real, will checks on goods really have such a big impact.

I know this is a minority opinion so totally accept I may be wrong but a "No Deal" exit also has massive potential for damage and upheaval.

The problem is that te tories really want "no deal" and anything less will be seen as a sellout by the noisy minority who have taken over the govt party

J Mysterio

Also wondering about the disagreement at the recent G7 summit whereby Johnson sided with Merkel, Macron, Trudeau and Conte (Abe neutral) against Trump's desire to reinstate Russia and reform as G8.

The argument - it is said - is that the former group wished the G7 to remain a club for 'Liberal Democracies'. Will the UK now be supporting Trump's push going forward, in line with their conduct?

firemansam4

trellheim wrote: »

K some thoughts


1. This is nothing to do with no-deal, and everything to get a deal
2. to get a deal - need to remove time and space so that a deal is the only possible outcome
3. How to do - prorogue - part 1
4. part 2 - EUCO Oct 17 and return with WA minus something
5. Present fait accompli , refuse to extend , force HoC into voting for it , bang, brexit delivered, call GE , win majority
6. ( Why - very little noise from ERG ... .watch what the magicians hands are not doing, at the moment dead-catting is all over the place )

This may well be the case, but it still is bringing the possibility of no deal a lot closer even if its not by intention.

If that is BJ intentions and he tries to bring about the WA with a few changes to it just before deadline day, then if it gets rejected again he will have absolutely no other alternative than to go No deal because if he goes with another extention at that point it will finish him just as it did to May

Jizique

firemansam4 wrote: »

This may well be the case, but it still is bringing the possibility of no deal a lot closer even if its not by intention.

If that is BJ intentions and he tries to bring about the WA with a few changes to it just before deadline day, then if it gets rejected again he will have absolutely no other alternative than to go No deal because if he goes with another extention at that point it will finish him just as it did to May

They have to go no-deal - this is what the ERG and the party members who elected him want and voted for.
But can he get an election thereafter? I don't know how as he cannot call one unilaterally, and not sure why Labour would vote for one until some of the shine has come off the new ball (to use a cricket analogy)

BarryD2

The one thing we can say in Johnson's favour is that he is being decisive. He's clearly steering towards a No Deal Brexit but if the other side capitulate in the interim, he'll consider that.

As opposed to May who tried to ride both horses for as long as she stubbornly could.

So Boris is forcing the issue and as a result, we could actually see a focused attempt by a fractured opposition to resolve this.

I was surprised that the queen agreed to his proposal - I'd say the stock of the monarchy might have sunk that bit more as a result.

J Mysterio

Ol' Stephen Fry is on point with this one.

https://twitter.com/stephenfry/status/1166753602658082817

If people felt disenfranchised before... this does what?...

firemansam4

Jizique wrote: »

They have to go no-deal - this is what the ERG and the party members who elected him want and voted for.
But can he get an election thereafter? I don't know how as he cannot call one unilaterally, and not sure why Labour would vote for one until some of the shine has come off the new ball (to use a cricket analogy)

I think you are right, even if some how Boris gets the EU to capitulate on the backstop (I don't think they will) there will still be many in the ERG who will vote down any new agreement anyway.
It is just looking more like no deal every day that passes now...

J Mysterio

Peoplw marching through London yesterday were chanting 'save our democracy, stop the coup'.

https://twitter.com/rainbow_0025/status/1166780548943089666

I would argue that for so long, the extreme language about 'coups' and 'fascists' have been on the Brexiteer/ Leave side.

This language is now being used by the 'remainers' now, and for good reason. This will not end well.

Tell me how

Heard Jeffrey Donaldson on Pat Kenny this morning. If you didn't know everything that had been going on, you'd actually think a No Deal, proroguing of Parliament and disgust of the backstop is actually the only logical position when you listen to him. Scary how much conviction they have to discount absolutely the facts which counter their views.

Laois_Man

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who are irrelevant? The DUP? How could they be irrelevant if they are currently needed to support the Tories stay in power?

I think he meant the SDLP - and he's right! They haven't had decent party leadership since John Hume/Seamus Mallon. No MPs for the first time since they were founded - No MEPs now - their lowest ever number of local government seats too. Shambles! And just when they were needed most too!

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

4. part 2 - EUCO Oct 17 and return with WA minus something

The EU will not agree to remove anything from the WA as already agreed, they will say (as they have been saying all year) that there is a negotiated deal on the table, and the choice is that deal or No Deal.

The other options are an extension or no Brexit, in theory, but Boris and co. are not going there, it would have to be a new UK Government.