Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Peoplw marching through London yesterday were chanting 'save our democracy, stop the coup'.

https://twitter.com/rainbow_0025/status/1166780548943089666

I would argue that for so long, the extreme language about 'coups' and 'fascists' have been on the Brexiteer/ Leave side.

This language is now being used by the 'remainers' now, and for good reason. This will not end well.

Hopefully this grows into a massive movement that stops this stupidty. The brexiteers and idoits have been allowed to run amok for too long spouting nonsense, misinformation and utter bile and not being challenged and called out for being the idiots they are.

Protestors out in force and people striking including a general strike is the only way Boris and co will be forced to listen and abandon this farce the whole situation has been allowed to fester like this because those pushing for this think they can get away with it.

Dymo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Peoplw marching through London yesterday were chanting 'save our democracy, stop the coup'.

https://twitter.com/rainbow_0025/status/1166780548943089666

I would argue that for so long, the extreme language about 'coups' and 'fascists' have been on the Brexiteer/ Leave side.

This language is now being used by the 'remainers' now, and for good reason. This will not end well.

I just get the impression from these protests and I was in the one in London last October that they are more of a poilite "We're not happy and were telling you we're not happy, that is all" and then everyone goes home.

I think now at this stage preparations should be stepped up for a no deal, even if Boris could try to persuade people he got a better deal people like Mogg, Mark francois and Farage supporters want total capitulation from the EU.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

Hopefully this grows into a massive movement that stops this stupidty. The brexiteers and idoits have been allowed to run amok for too long spouting nonsense, misinformation and utter bile and not being challenged and called out for being the idiots they are.

Protestors out in force and people striking including a general strike is the only way Boris and co will be forced to listen and abandon this farce the whole situation has been allowed to fester like this because those pushing for this think they can get away with it.

Until the counter-demonstrations begin. Then it will turn very nasty.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Until the counter-demonstrations begin. Then it will turn very nasty.

Indeed. The political landscape is getting to tinder dry status very quickly. Anything could ignite it, and Boris is distributing petrol and matches.

Zubeneschamali

joe40 wrote: »

What would be the worst outcome for Ireland, a compromise on the backstop, maybe make it time limited, or a "no deal" Brexit.

In the short term, like with 5 years of a time limit, No Deal would be worse.

But a time limit just means No Deal at the end of the time limit, so in the longer term they are the same but the time limit has the disadvantage that when the UK run down the clock and go to a hard border, we will have agreed to it in advance, and the UK will have had 5 years or whatever to advance trade talks.

No Deal right now means the UK has to come back to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement as a 3rd country, and the EU will say fine, we will start talks as soon as you put the Divorce Bill, EU citizens rights and a permanent backstop into UK law. The UK cannot even start FTA talks until they sign up.

And if they crash out, they are really, really going to want a FTA. Now, it is a phony war, the UK can say any old nonsense they like about unicorns and sunlit uplands in the WTO. When there is no medicine in pharmacies, no fresh food on shop shelves, crops are rotting in the fields, the NHS is collapsing for lack of nurses and doctors, Sterling is trading below parity with the dollar, businesses and capital are fleeing, JIT supply lines have collapsed and factories are shuttered, they will not be able to pretend things are going great.

trellheim

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU will not agree to remove anything from the WA as already agreed, they will say (as they have been saying all year) that there is a negotiated deal on the table, and the choice is that deal or No Deal.

The other options are an extension or no Brexit, in theory, but Boris and co. are not going there, it would have to be a new UK Government.

Do you think there are no backroom conversations going on ?

interested ....

Like I said its about removing time and space to create compression to get a deal , all of this has been pregamed several times.

Main signal for me is Steve Baker keeping relatively quiet



PS : Dom Cummings still tweeting https://twitter.com/OdysseanProject


did not think you were allowed do that as a spad

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

K some thoughts


1. This is nothing to do with no-deal, and everything to get a deal
2. to get a deal - need to remove time and space so that a deal is the only possible outcome
3. How to do - prorogue - part 1
4. part 2 - EUCO Oct 17 and return with WA minus something
5. Present fait accompli , refuse to extend , force HoC into voting for it , bang, brexit delivered, call GE , win majority
6. ( Why - very little noise from ERG ... .watch what the magicians hands are not doing, at the moment dead-catting is all over the place )

I was asked what it was all about this morning and I gave three possibilities:

1. As above; Take the WA with NI backstop and put it to parliament with less than two weeks to go and backs to the wall they have to pass it. In support of that is the almost absolutist no deal yapping that's coming from everywhere at the moment to frighten them into line. Hobson's choice.

2. Push parliament to pass a VONC so that he gets an election 'forced' on him and all the brexiters fall in behind the Tories as the only true brexit party who can deliver brexit (BP can't command the numbers). Only wrinkle here is (as far as I can figure it) the earliest such an election could be held is October 31st.

3. Cut off parliament from the time and space to table anything that can stop hard brexit.

The last one is obviously the worst case. I'm not convinced that it's the actual plan. The date parliament resumes is long enough before b-day 3 that other things can happen, including a new WA. If they really want hard brexit, then you choose a later date. Also, all the leaks about methods of undermining parliament are clear scare tactics. It's project fear on steroids. Who are they trying to frighten?

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Do you think there are no backroom conversations going on ?

I'm sure there are.


UK: The backstop has to go!
EU: No.
UK: How about a time limit?
EU: Nein
UK: Alternative arrangements!
EU: Like what?
UK: We'll sort it out later!
EU: Non
UK: Trust us!
EU: Nej

etc.

Enzokk

BarryD2 wrote: »

I was surprised that the queen agreed to his proposal - I'd say the stock of the monarchy might have sunk that bit more as a result.

The queen is aware that she is a figurehead only and has no real power. She will accept the advice of the PM as she doesn't want to get herself involved in politics. It is shameful that Johnson did this to get her involved though, I think the royal family would have been happy to be just in the background doing their thing. Having her agree to proroguing is getting her involved in politics and it is worse in that she cannot go against the advice of the PM really.

BonnieSituation

Laois_Man wrote: »

I think he meant the SDLP - and he's right! They haven't had decent party leadership since John Hume/Seamus Mallon. No MPs for the first time since they were founded - No MEPs now - their lowest ever number of local government seats too. Shambles! And just when they were needed most too!

Mallon? That's a gas one! Bitter old fool that he is!

Needed by who?

If they were needed people would vote for them.

The flickering of the eyelashes towards FF says all you need to know about the SDLP.

Shelga

What is the mechanism by which it could be tested if parliament would accept the WA with an NI-only backstop?

Indicative votes?

trellheim

What is the mechanism by which it could be tested if parliament would accept the WA with an NI-only backstop?

historically terribly bad option as everyone votes their conscience , need compression to make it worrk

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

What is the mechanism by which it could be tested if parliament would accept the WA with an NI-only backstop?

Indicative votes?

It would be a brand new Working Agreement. I would imagine that it would need to be voted on as the previous WA was voted on as it is legislation.

MrMusician18

trellheim wrote: »

Do you think there are no backroom conversations going on ?

interested ....

Like I said its about removing time and space to create compression to get a deal , all of this has been pregamed several times.

Main signal for me is Steve Baker keeping relatively quiet



PS : Dom Cummings still tweeting https://twitter.com/OdysseanProject


did not think you were allowed do that as a spad

Seemingly this is the strategy. The idea is that if parliament opposition to no deal is hobbled, the EU will not see where the emergency out is and have to heavily compromise to rescue the situation in the immediate term.

It's pure game theory and the British have calculated that the EU fear no deal more than they do. And they are probably right, the extremists in the UK do not have any fear even though they should.

It's the political equivalent of putting the cocked loaded gun on a hairtrigger to the head.

BonnieSituation

Shelga wrote: »

What is the mechanism by which it could be tested if parliament would accept the WA with an NI-only backstop?

Indicative votes?

To get the WA changed to have an NI-only backstop would require the EU to amend it. That will obviously happen in the open.

We can read the tea leaves from any pronouncements from MPs during that process.

Then put it to a vote. This "indicative vote" nonsense needs to be brought out back and put out of its misery as it confuses people about the processes involved.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

What is the mechanism by which it could be tested if parliament would accept the WA with an NI-only backstop?

Put it to a vote with 48 hours on the clock and see.

Zubeneschamali

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's the political equivalent of putting the cocked loaded gun on a hairtrigger to the head.

To their own head, and then making demands.

Unfortunately Ireland is in the splash zone.

InTheShadows

J Mysterio wrote: »

Peoplw marching through London yesterday were chanting 'save our democracy, stop the coup'.

https://twitter.com/rainbow_0025/status/1166780548943089666

I would argue that for so long, the extreme language about 'coups' and 'fascists' have been on the Brexiteer/ Leave side.

This language is now being used by the 'remainers' now, and for good reason. This will not end well.

Absolutely pathetic. These people need to get a job and except the will of the majority

BorneTobyWilde

kuro68k wrote: »

It's happening again, the next Windrush scandal.

https://news.sky.com/video/anti-prorogation-protester-i-looked-after-your-children-now-you-kick-me-out-11796458

SHe's most likely totally misinformed. Why on earth does she this she would be kicked out when all around are saying people who are in UK are safe, and will be not asked to leave under any circumstances .

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Seemingly this is the strategy. The idea is that if parliament opposition to no deal is hobbled, the EU will not see where the emergency out is and have to heavily compromise to rescue the situation in the immediate term.

It's pure game theory and the British have calculated that the EU fear no deal more than they do. And they are probably right, the extremists in the UK do not have any fear even though they should.

It's the political equivalent of putting the cocked loaded gun on a hairtrigger to the head.

I think he's talking about parliament, not the EU. EU fear of no deal is over played. All the prep has been done at this stage and all you need to do is look at how Macron has been talking for over six months now. The French see this as an opportunity for them, not a risk. Merkel may have a different view, but these are not the entire EuCo and even though only a QMV is required to agree a deal, unanimity is much preferred.

Even for us, no deal is eminently preferable to a negotiated deal that endangers the GFA. Because at least with a no deal, the UK is forced to come back to the table for a FTA, with a deal that endangers the GFA, there's no going back.

First Up

MrMusician18 wrote:

It's pure game theory and the British have calculated that the EU fear no deal more than they do. And they are probably right, the extremists in the UK do not have any fear even though they should.

Meanwhile you can imagine the conversations in the boardrooms of companies doing business with/in the UK.

Parliament is treating this like a 6th form debating society but the real world is watching.

BonnieSituation

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely pathetic. These people need to get a job and except the will of the majority

I take exception to this!

BorneTobyWilde

Could the house vote on the deal on the table again without BJ's consent? If all else fails they should vote on May's deal on Oct 31st and pass it.

Calina

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

SHe's most likely totally misinformed. Why on earth does she this she would be kicked out when all around are saying people who are in UK are safe, and will be not asked to leave under any circumstances .

Because EU citizens are applying for settled status and not getting it and they include some high profile people.

All around can say what they like but the reality for many Europeans already is that the UK government is either incompetent or untrustworthy. Even Dan Hannan is screaming about this to Patel.

prawnsambo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

SHe's most likely totally misinformed. Why on earth does she this she would be kicked out when all around are saying people who are in UK are safe, and will be not asked to leave under any circumstances .

Because the actual operation of the system has been at best poor and at worst deliberately hostile. A lot of people are getting 'pre-settled' status, which means that they have to reapply again after five years. And that's for those who can produce all the paperwork required, which is ridiculously granular. Even the ASA have banned the ad for the settlement process for being misleading.

BorneTobyWilde

Why do people resign on the back of BJ's action? Seems crazy, you need to stay in as a vote to vote against his actions.

AngryHippie

Enzokk wrote: »

The queen is aware that she is a figurehead only and has no real power. She will accept the advice of the PM as she doesn't want to get herself involved in politics. It is shameful that Johnson did this to get her involved though, I think the royal family would have been happy to be just in the background doing their thing. Having her agree to proroguing is getting her involved in politics and it is worse in that she cannot go against the advice of the PM really.

Why can't she ?

She can do whatever the hell she wants if Johnson gives her a carte blanche, which he is proposing to do.

The numbers don't stack up in favor of this freakshow.
The politicians are to incompetent to get it done and save the union.
She can put her Queeny boots on any time she likes and force a democratic injunction for the good of the nation i.e. Referendum followed by general election.

The entire parliament from day one has displayed an elite arrogance that is completely out of touch with the limitations of their power, the will of the people and their ability to deliver a tolerable solution which is a subset of both. I can't believe it has gotten this far without Labour booting Corbyn to touch and putting someone with the slightest understanding of their electorates in power to instead negotiate a remain position with Europe by.

• Calling out the Lies in the original campaign in a deliberate and structured statement - identifying the liars
• Identifying any practical points of policy on which the UK disagree with the EU in order to open a dialogue to negotiate a policy change (Bringing NI and ROI into the discussion to get an EU partner on board)
• Make it a point of party policy and get your MPs and candidates out on the ground to organise their electorates
• Wait for the far right nuts and nationalist wings to come out of the woodwork and clearly display that THEY ARE THE PROBLEM
• Watch the Tory Elite lose their bravado and balls as soon as the bobbies start paddywagoning the right wingers en masse for public order offences (if it happens), if not then they have lost their fighting cocks and it becomes about FACTS again.

British Politicians have completely failed to grasp the narrative in this whole process on the off chance that they might not get re-elected instead of polishing the sh1t off it and looking for the diamond opportunity hidden inside to find a compromise, improve standing within the EU, avert a disaster, take the credit for avoiding an economic catastrophe and making the Tory party look like the party of complete assclowns they truly are.
As for Farage and co, they just need to be called out on their lies. Interruption. Every time they utter a falsehood, in public, in private, on the air, on the web - call it out publicly, every interview hammer them. They only have about 5 people with a clue and they are all spin specialists. kill the spin by taking the ball. the ball is the attention. they lose it when they get caught lying.

The BBC has been wrapped up in this from the very early days and rooting out the culprit(s) there should be the first order of business.
Find out who it is, play dirty and get them out. (I mean drugs, hookers and telephoto lenses if need be)
Its been very obvious for a long time that the panel invitees on quite a number of their shows has been stacked against the facts.

I'm embarrassed for them.
It's like when you have foreign friends visiting and your next door neighbour is wandering around pissed as a newt abusing his missus and defecating on the front lawn while his kids are playing in the dirt with a dead cat.

They can turn this into a serious opportunity but when and if they do, they need to press hard and press charges against the electoral misconduct that brought this about. From Pigrooter on.

VinLieger

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Could the house vote on the deal on the table again without BJ's consent? If all else fails they should vote on May's deal on Oct 31st and pass it.

Technically yes because Bercow's reservation of resubmitting it again within the same sitting won't apply after the queen gives her speech and the new parliament commences

VinLieger

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely pathetic. These people need to get a job and except the will of the majority

Show me where in provable detail the will of the majority then AND now is to leave with no deal

Seth Brundle

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely pathetic. These people need to get a job and except the will of the majority

Is it the will of the majority to have their democratic parliament closed by a PM that was not elected by the house in agreement with an unelected head of state?
Is it the will of the majority to create financial damage simply because they were not informed or they were misled by a barage of media adverts funded by Russian money?
Is it the will of the majority to leave the EU including the single market?
Is it the will of the majority to leave the EU including the customs union?
Is it the will of the people to lose all of the benefits of EU membership such as visa-free travel or no mobile phone roaming charges?
Is it the will of the majority to pay more for their shopping simply because when importing food, the UK will be forced to pay high WTO rates?

Exactly when did the people vote for the above and in what way were the questions they answered phrased?