Clue: A 13 player Murder Mystery game.

Pawwed Rig

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Leaning towards Baggly and BH now based on interactions with known villagers.

Still think Clara looks selfie though so I can kind of understand the lynching. Wolves might have seen that too and band wagoned

Edit wolfy not selfie

Pawwed Rig

So far I am thinking Sully, Vale and Necro are villagers

Baggly

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

So far I am thinking Sully, Vale and Necro are villagers

Why? Gives us a better picture if you give reasons.

Necro

Ok so I can't sleep. Enough feeling sorry for myself, I'm always terrible day 1 (yes day 1 was technically yesterday but ho hum, no lynch and whatnot)

duffman13 wrote: »

Honestly at this point my FFA looks like this:

Clarabel - Honestly feels very forced and contrived in the game, I am not sure what to make of her and find her difficult to get a good read on. Has posted a fair oul bit and todays posting is a little bit more coherent but reading back yesterday doesnt sit to well with me at the moment. Also said she knew why Tusk was in someone elses FFA so that person didnt need to mention it despite no reasoning being given. I asked and got no reply.

GnR or Necro - I dont think both are a wolf weirdly but the timing of the votes late last night was certainly odd. GnR I felt over compensated for the late vote and I get people may read too much into something but that level of protest was a little OTT for a day 0 lynch vote. Necro, isnt as on point as usual IMO but then its only literally 24 hours in the game. I just felt the vote on Tusk as a no poster was dangerous considering we could have lost a roled villager not around to defend themselves.

Ecto - Again based on last nights interactions and lots of posts around lynch time aswell. Would a villager advocate a lynch vote when no vote was an option, probably tbh. You would find it harder to stand over a no lynch vote than you would a throwaway vote. As per last night, feel she was trying to earn village points.

BH and Tusk if they are wolves, then them eliminating Loughc was a bizarre move so I kinda cant see it being the case.

So duffers FFAs Clara which is fair dinkum and all that, I can't really disagree with it, I felt similar if I'm completely honest.

Has myself and GnR in some sort of weird mish mash twofer which I never really like (Note this is hedging peeps, the correct terminology you're looking for me is flailing).

And Ecto, who tbf he did vote yesterday.

He notes BH and tusk (now Pawwed) killing Lough would be a bit bizarre as well - and I agree with this.

What's more interesting though is his later post on Lough's interactions..

duffman13 wrote: »

Ok I think I got all of Loughc posts but may have missed some so feel free to double check. i did interactions too








Intro, little back and forth with Necro





Interaction with Clara

Lynch question



Loughc thinks Clara is wolfy at this stage



Chat with GnR



Loughc agreeing with BH re Day 0





Lough replying to Clara on why she was wolfy



Wantes Necro to vote but doesnt vote themselves


Pops back on after lynch, still feels dodge on Clara





Doesnt like Tusk reading him wolf

Tusk with no real reasoning as to why he though Lough was a wolf



Lough finding this post by necro odd

Necros response



Lough really seems set on Clara, would wolves really be as brazen to post what follows









Really possible here that its a potential set up tbh, I dont know if someone is that brazen. But then again......












Interaction with Baggly around the no vote. Would Baggly if a wolf, interact with a munch target literally right before death. Dont think so, good column here for me based on this.



And there goes our Vig! :mad:

So basically I get the feeling he's not wolf leaning Clara here from this post, but he doesn't retract the read which is a bit contradictory.

He goes on and talks about Baggly a bit - and village leans Baggly which is grand, I do agree with this post.


But compare his FFA to his comments here on Lough/Clara discussion and they don't really align.


I'm gonna try and look at a few more people tonight/tomorrow if I get a chance, but I'm kinda looking more closely at duffers based off these two posts if I'm honest.

Green&Red

Ectoplasm wrote: »

If only you could have pointed that out earlier before she got lynched...

I actually agree with you on this which is why I voted for you instead.

The lynch tonight was crap, too quiet. Need to reassess but I'm off to bed soon so that will be in the morning.

Not to blow my own trumpet but I did actually point that out

Ectoplasm

Ectoplasm wrote: »

If only you could have pointed that out earlier before she got lynched...

I actually agree with you on this which is why I voted for you instead.

The lynch tonight was crap, too quiet. Need to reassess but I'm off to bed soon so that will be in the morning.

I did point it out. I also said her, Necro and Baggly were out of bounds for me tonight. I probably could have been a bit more vocal about, that'd be a fair criticism.

Necro

Also I'm not as on point as usual as I'm trying to not post as much and be more flowy. It's clearly not working given my post count

Pawwed Rig

Baggly wrote: »

Why? Gives us a better picture if you give reasons.

Basing it on interactions with known good villagers and with the people I suspect to be wolves. Voting patterns, accusations, etc.

Green&Red

So I am half steamin BUT


There seems to be nobody here upset that we killed an innocent!
Nobody


I probably won’t be around for munch but I’d presume I won’t be munched cause I’m always close to a lynch nut town needs to cop on

Bounty Hunter

Obviously disappointed that Clara was not a wolf. A little more suspicious of those who voted her late now.

Been a little occupied with baby scan stuff this morning so haven’t analyzed as much but you guys really slowed down post quantity wise after I logged off yesterday so not as much to catch up on either.

Obviously that helps me catch up but I do wonder if the wolves are happy to low post and let villagers take the attention in this lower numbers game.

Bounty Hunter

GnR - think the word defensive can trigger him somewhat but only 1 person voted for him iirc (same number as myself) and he should probably focus on that in stead of telling the village to cop on for FFAing him, everyone should come under scrutiny at some point and although I didn’t like him openly musing / directing the FBI on who to focus on my suspicion of him is not as high atm.

Necro- I worry I give him a bit of leeway as I feel he can give good analysis of players and votes (wagonomics) but I have a null read on him mostly which worries me. I know he says he always tries to vote last but he should also know that the last vote on someone who then flips good

2D- his reasoning for having been quiet makes sense for how I’ve read him as a player but he is someone who is hard to read and not giving off much data via interaction with others

Baggly- also voted Clara but being the first to do so who also didn’t change their vote plus his post outlining players interactions makes me lean more good on him. That one post of good village work will not stop me suspecting him if wolfy behavior is noticed.

Tusk/Paw - my main gripe with Tusk had been him basing his vote off the first 3 pages of posts. Could be considered a wolfy way to vote as you can just focus on parts that fit your agenda but have not read bits that point at those who don’t. That said Tusk did that in the last game when he was good too. Spent most of my interactions with him defending myself (not accusing him)so although I’m going to give Paw a bit of a clean slate in terms of judging I should probably focus more on him.

Sulli/ Vale - these two were on my last ffa together at no.3 because both are experienced players that are low posting and as a result not interacting with others much. As a result it would not be a shock to see either appear as part of a 3 person wolf team. Vale in particular got called out this by baggly his response to which didn’t exactly allay any fears though.

Ecto - nobody actually voted Ecto though I think a few mentioned suspicions during the day, suspects Necro seemingly. Said she wasn’t mad about Clara being a wolf but only a wolf could be positive about such a thing and want to get credit for being right so no credit being given by me atm

QB - I get her pushing Necro on what info we got from Clara as he was on about this and it is something he would usually be one of the better people to analyze. Then again he says he now suspects her and says antagonist QB is usually a wolf. Anyone able to back this up? Not sure if I’d know that meta stuff. QB did seem confident Clara would flip green in advance and had already got on Necros case for what info that’d give early

Duff - the 3rd person to jump on Clara makes Duff slightly wolfy if there was a wolf on that wagon but otherwise I can’t say I disagreed with lots of what Duff said. He was leaning Ecto as much as Clara at 5 to 9 so conceivably his late vote on Clara is just as bad a look as Necros last second one as it pushed her into vote leader position with only a few minutes left.



Don’t think both a wolf Duff and a wolf Necro would make those late votes on a villager personally so I’m thinking 1 out of 2 there.

After that I’ll have to wait until after work to hopefully be able to analyze who I’d suspect most from my above reads / see what else has been posted since, wrote that on my phone and it took ages, happy to at least get it done before having to work

quickbeam

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

QB - I get her pushing Necro on what info we got from Clara as he was on about this and it is something he would usually be one of the better people to analyze. Then again he says he now suspects her and says antagonist QB is usually a wolf. Anyone able to back this up? Not sure if I’d know that meta stuff. QB did seem confident Clara would flip green in advance and had already got on Necros case for what info that’d give early

Usually when I'm nice and sweet I get accused of being a wolf. Clara called me "smooth" before. Keep everyone on side, don't make enemies.

Now I'm being antagonistic, I'm also accused of being a wolf. With zero back-up as meta evidence clearly disproves this.

As I'm not a wolf trying to keep everyone sweet, and not a rolled villager trying to keep safe, I'm a bit more out there.

I would say if Necro doesn't have something pre 10am, and then survives the munch then, we lynch there. A villager-Necro with his skill, would be dangerous to the wolves and they'd not want him revealing later. If he survives, it's because he's one of them.

If he spills before 10am, then he's told everything anyway so they've less reason to kill him. I say let's look at his analysis and decide how authentic it is. If his analysis flips someone green then we lynch him next. Though I fear we're quickly running out of lynches.

If his analysis flips red, well, meta says that Necro doesn't bus, but there could always be a first time, but I'd be happy to put him in a tentative villager position then.

So, no pressure Necro :P

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

I would say if Necro doesn't have something pre 10am, and then survives the munch then, we lynch there. A villager-Necro with his skill, would be dangerous to the wolves and they'd not want him revealing later. If he survives, it's because he's one of them.

Though wolves, now reading that might just leave him to us and cause a mislynch :rolleyes:

Pawwed Rig

Lynch is 10am right?

Pawwed Rig

Sorry munch....

TheValeyard

Wolf slip?

Pawwed Rig

TheValeyard wrote: »

Wolf slip?

If it was the other way around then yes ie asking at 5pm what time is the munch....


#PRNotawolfNRV

quickbeam

Munch is 10am-ish. Lynch votes can be cast from 10am regardless of munch.

Necro

quickbeam wrote:

I would say if Necro doesn't have something pre 10am, and then survives the munch then, we lynch there. A villager-Necro with his skill, would be dangerous to the wolves and they'd not want him revealing later. If he survives, it's because he's one of them.

Already gave you something re: duffer if you bothered to have a look.

What exactly would you like a bonafide guaranteed wolf? That's not possible, all I have is feeling and reads.

You say 'give us a wolf' like it's an entirely binary one way thing, there's more people in the village than just lil old me.

Just getting up now anyways.

quickbeam

You seemed pretty confident in the lead-up to the lynch that a flip on Clara would yield a wolf. So yeah, I'm looking for a wolf.

Necro

Bounty Hunter wrote:

Necro- I worry I give him a bit of leeway as I feel he can give good analysis of players and votes (wagonomics) but I have a null read on him mostly which worries me. I know he says he always tries to vote last but he should also know that the last vote on someone who then flips good

This is a bit mad BH, are you saying literally the only thing that makes you suspect me is the last minute vote; the one I telegraphed I was likely to do anyways?

That end part of your sentence seems unfinished, I should know what about the last vote on someone who then flips good?

I had two votes on me, I know I'm a villager, if anyone shifts their vote from Clara to me last minute it ties the wagons and I die so I was making damn sure that didnt happen as I know I'm good and Clara was my wolf read yesterday. Stand by that so tbh I'm not sorry I lynched her bar for village numbers. Next time be less wolfy I guess.

quickbeam

Necro wrote: »

Already gave you something re: duffer if you bothered to have a look.

I read it. I also re-read it in light of you highlighting it here. It wasn't then, and still isn't, super-clear to me that this was your wolf-read based on Clara's flip. But okay, if that's your conclusion. I shall think on it.

quickbeam

Yeah, I wouldn't be hanging Necro just because of a self-preservation last-minute vote.

Necro

quickbeam wrote:

You seemed pretty confident in the lead-up to the lynch that a flip on Clara would yield a wolf. So yeah, I'm looking for a wolf.

Then go and fcuking do some work and stop bandwagoning.

Jesus Christ if you're a villager all you're doing is rambling incoherently.

Necro

quickbeam wrote:

You seemed pretty confident in the lead-up to the lynch that a flip on Clara would yield a wolf. So yeah, I'm looking for a wolf.

Anyways point out where I said it would give a wolf.

I said it would be a better info lynch than a 2D or a Vale who have basically ghosted the thread so far in terms of interactions. Voting low posters is grand, but in terms of info it doesn't give much if they flip as opposed to Clara with 70 posts.

But this village is whack anyways, a lot of the players are barely playing and some others seem intent on expecting one or two to do all the work for them.

So as you were I guess.

Bounty Hunter

Necro wrote: »

This is a bit mad BH, are you saying literally the only thing that makes you suspect me is the last minute vote; the one I telegraphed I was likely to do anyways?

That end part of your sentence seems unfinished, I should know what about the last vote on someone who then flips good?

I had two votes on me, I know I'm a villager, if anyone shifts their vote from Clara to me last minute it ties the wagons and I die so I was making damn sure that didnt happen as I know I'm good and Clara was my wolf read yesterday. Stand by that so tbh I'm not sorry I lynched her bar for village numbers. Next time be less wolfy I guess.

Yeah not sure what happened with the end there but typing so much on my phone is bound to lead to a mistake or two.

It did say that I’m sure you know the final vote on someone who flips green isn’t a good look but why is it mad that I don’t suspect you based off more things? Surely you would be happy I only have 1 main thing to say about you when I tried to say something about everyone. That sai having a null read on you worries me as your work and analysis of others & votes often makes me lean village on you but not here so far.

Bounty Hunter

quickbeam wrote: »

Though wolves, now reading that might just leave him to us and cause a mislynch :rolleyes:

You rolling your eyes at yourself? Better to call it out yourself I guess before someone else does and then someone other than yourself and Necro (say me) dies cos it does not point at you or kill a wolf and Necro being alive meaning he is likely bad is now implanted as an idea in the wolf heavy survivors heads.

:pac:

Adding pacman makes this seem more light hearted

Necro

I just want to have a look at Baggly's posts cos I'm not sure they line up with his interactions analysis at all really.

So initially he posts the following yesterday morning...

Baggly wrote: »

I have hunches on Tusk, Clara, GNR. Dont think its all three. Just have hunches on them each individually.

Hard to read Sully, Loughc and BH so far. They are my next 3 suspicions.

Ive done some analysis this morning but i want to dive deeper into build up to the lynch.

Am i correct in saying munch happens at 9pm? Or is it 10am-ish?

So his initial thoughts are on Clara, tusk and GnR - ok that's fine. Later his thoughts become clearer (I think) based off analysis. Names sully, Lough and BH too. Not sure I'm gone on this though, it kinda turns this post into a bit of player salad which can be wolfy.

This is also hedging, btw.


Later on post his interactions analysis he posts the following in response to my question on his conclusions.

Baggly wrote: »

Sure. Vale is suss. All his interactions are fluff. He is avoiding anything controversial.

Qb has too many people she hasnt interacted with yet. Also very suspect.

I can see a Clara, Sully, Vale wolf team.

I could also see a BH, QB & Sully team.

Sully is throwing things off as she hasnt been around. Cant discount that as a tactic. She is hanging in there doing min post count. Wolfy.

Yeah that table is wrong. Pop into the excel for accurate info.

Note that sully appears in both teams but not on his FFA - now I get that the interactions stuff only really comes into play post first wolf flip, but if sully is a potential on both teams, why not FFA her ahead of say... tusk - who doesn't appear in these conclusions at all.

Ditto QB, they seem to be interacting a good bit, quizzing each other but neither of them willing to double down and vote for each other.

Baggly wrote: »

Vale, QB, GNR team also a possibility based on interactions.

Another conclusion, Vale again mentioned as suss along with QB. yet tusk stays on his FFA and I'm not sure if there was ever a reason given for this.

Going off his own posts to me it looks like he's more suspicious of Vale, sully and QB than he is of tusk at this point but tusk still stays on his FFA.

I'm not quite sure why tbh.

Baggly wrote: »

I gave my top 3. The interactions analysis isnt foolproof and needs to be tempered with analysis from on thread, which is what i have done. Ive already outlined the limitations of the interactions analysis in posts since. BUT it does give a steer on where a team might be. So that when we flip a wolf, we can identify who that wolf was avoiding. This actually worked a treat the last time you were a wolf and we caught you. You might remember?

Responding to GnR about the interactions analysis and I agree here - it's definitely not foolproof but the question is why are your reads not aligning with your conclusions?

Baggly wrote: »

FWIW. if we are ranking our FFAs, for me it goes

Clara
GNR








Tusk

Baggly wrote: »

#ThursFFA

Clara
GNR
Tusk

Last two again and he doubles down on including tusk on his FFA - I do wonder if this is just a handy place to have a third whilst pointing the finger at others, potential wolf theatre between QB and Baggy maybe?

Baggly can you explain why tusk/Pawwed remained on your FFA even though your conclusions don't really give reasoning for him being there?

The other thing I am thinking is that Baggly and tusk/Pawwed are teamed and he's using this as potential distancing. But I'm not sure why, as he himself isn't really under much pressure.

So if Baggly was to flip wolf I'd be looking harder at QB, Vale and sully as potential partners.

GnR would be spewed clear in this case. But this is tentative and not exact.

If Baggly is a villager then hopefully he can explain why he'd FFA tusk over his suspicions in the other 3.

Bounty Hunter

Baggly is someone who could give a lot of info if someone in hi grouping from interactions etc flips bad, I don't know about going after him based on how much info he could yield though, i'd need to be thinking he is a wolf first. A few more likely in my mind before him as things stand.

Necro

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

Baggly is someone who could give a lot of info if someone in hi grouping from interactions etc flips bad, I don't know about going after him based on how much info he could yield though, i'd need to be thinking he is a wolf first. A few more likely in my mind before him as things stand.

No I agree, though where are we in terms of numbers:

8 v 3 currently I think.

7 v 3 post munch.

So mislynch tonight and we're at 6 v 3

Munch takes us to 5 v 3

Another mislynch then and it's game over as wolves munch to gain parity.

So we don't need any sacrificial villagers at this point. We need more villagers stepping up (when they can) and doing some work.

I'm not saying I'm going after Baggly, I just want him to explain why his reads don't seem to align with his FFA is all.