Clue: A 13 player Murder Mystery game.

Ectoplasm

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

I said it's a bit early but what harm in having info out there early

#FFA3

Duff
QB
Vale

and itd be a side of 2D or GnR if one of those is wrong for me.

Ahh ffs. This would be mine too but with Bounty Hunter instead of Vale. Which is a problem for my theory. Bus one maybe, 2 unlikely.

Trying to get a reads list done as I'm running around a lot this morning and on the road shortly.

Bounty Hunter

Ectoplasm wrote: »

Ahh ffs. This would be mine too but with Bounty Hunter instead of Vale. Which is a problem for my theory. Bus one maybe, 2 unlikely.

Trying to get a reads list done as I'm running around a lot this morning and on the road shortly.

Well if yours was based off what you quoted from me above, read my responses and posts since, see that I wasn't going after you and realize great minds think alike. Then think about Vale or someone else to fill that thrid spot. simples

I be a feller, GnR.

The reason I'm low posting is because I'm trying to add something of substance instead of just adding to the heap. There's too many people posting utter drivel and then saying "hey, look at me, I'm posting a lot and trying to help the village". I grew into the last game when the numbers decreased and there was less **** to sift through. Again, maybe that's something I'll cope with better with experience.

Clarabel last night is a good example. She has been front and centre from the getgo with lots of post, people have meticulously combed through said posts and somehow were convinced that she was the wolfiest. People are taking monotonous posts and making them a big deal. She was this games Choc Chip for me - the one I trusted most.

How experienced players deduced that she was the biggest threat last night is a touch suspicious to me.

Green&Red

Ectoplasm wrote: »

Ahh ffs. This would be mine too but with Bounty Hunter instead of Vale. Which is a problem for my theory. Bus one maybe, 2 unlikely.

Trying to get a reads list done as I'm running around a lot this morning and on the road shortly.

Well it’s anFFA not a vote

Baggly

FINALLY. Jesus we talk some amount of waffle sometimes.

Baggly

6 min interactions analysis conclusions on the way!

Bounty Hunter

Deleted User wrote: »

I be a feller, GnR.

The reason I'm low posting is because I'm trying to add something of substance instead of just adding to the heap. There's too many people posting utter drivel and then saying "hey, look at me, I'm posting a lot and trying to help the village". I grew into the last game when the numbers decreased and there was less **** to sift through. Again, maybe that's something I'll cope with better with experience.

Clarabel last night is a good example. She has been front and centre from the getgo with lots of post, people have meticulously combed through said posts and somehow were convinced that she was the wolfiest. People are taking monotonous posts and making them a big deal. She was this games Choc Chip for me - the one I trusted most.

How experienced players deduced that she was the biggest threat last night is a touch suspicious to me.

Again a lot of what you say makes sense, but of course we now have retrospect and know Clara was good.

In my opinion it is better to speak up and try to stop a lynch if you think it a mislynch. The best way to do so is to suggest better targets. As you say this becomes easier later in the game when you have more of how a player plays and less garbage in the way but you can't wait until then. Having your opinion out there on people can help when they are later revealed to be good or bad. Keeping quiet on your opinions will just lead to villagers becoming suspicious of you

Bounty Hunter

Green&Red wrote: »

Well it’s anFFA not a vote

I almost always vote off my FFAs in games. That said if I am alive later my FFA could change just cos it is very early still and others could start acting wolfy but its def my top 3 for now.

Fair enough, I could have been louder in my support of Clarabel. I can't dispute that.

Ectoplasm

Baggly - Feels village to me. A little less cage rattly than usual imo but still trying to push buttons and provoke reactions.

Pawwed Rig - I never saw it with tusk and PR seems to be doing their best to catch up. In my village pile for now.

Green& Red - Again feels village - over explained the vote at same time as Necro which actually worked to draw attention to it. A bit chaotic (not using the d word) which seems more village than not.

Necro - Was in my village pile, now in my possible wolf pile. I gave reasons for this last night - soft defense of 2D etc. - and trying to get this done.

2D - Can't shake the feeling of wolf. Mostly gut read right now.

Sulli - Feel a bit pocketed by sulli which has me wary. Basically used my FFA and has agreed with a lot of what I've said. Could easily be village but not enough there to put her in village pile yet

Vale - Drops in and out. Hasn't said or done much.

BH - Possible Duff partner but less likely with updated FFA. If I'm wrong on QB though, still a possibility.

QB - Playing a very strange game which could be deliberate way to avoid the meta of non-anon.

Duff - Late vote on Clarabel despite going after me most of the time. Is either wolf or tunnelling hard.

Baggly

Flip the sully line was off. Corrected here.

Conclusions.

Ecto and Necro made sure to interact with everyone yesterday. Hello 2d is immune to analysis due to low posting style.

Sully and vale also skewing results.

Necro
QB
Duffers

My hunches.

Green&Red

Baggly wrote: »

Flip the sully line was off. Corrected here.

Conclusions.

Ecto and Necro made sure to interact with everyone yesterday. Hello 2d is immune to analysis due to low posting style.

Sully and vale also skewing results.

Necro
QB
Duffers

My hunches.

So you FFA with tagging it and you basically take mine but replace yourself with Necro

Jesus Baggly you just love sticking up massive red flags

duffman13

Sore head and lots of posts to catch up on

Baggly

GNR at this stage you are just looking to poke holes in anything i say or do. I have no problem people doing that, when they dont start off from an obvious bias. I am posting shorthand here as i want to contribute but i could die at any stage.

If you want to dispute my work, go ahead and dig in. Its just numbers. The numbers dont lie.

If you have a different interpretation of the numbers, thats useful. Otherwise jog on.

Necro

sKeith wrote: »

"So, the police were in and they have collected dna samples from the body.
They are going to investigate what happened and want to know if you have any ideas.

Well group, do you.."

The group look at each other and discuss what to do...

i dunno...i dunno... no idea.
There are a few names that could just be heard over the noise.
They eventually tell mr belvedere they have no idea and if the police wont let them leave, then they were going to bed.

"Don't go anywhere on your own, use the buddy system."


D1 Lynch results.
no lynch = 3 - tusk, Loughc, Bounty Hunter
Ectoplasm = 2 - quickbeam, duffman13
tusk = 2 - Necro, Green&Red
Baggly = 1 - Clarabel
bounty hunter = 1 - Baggly
Green&Red = 1 - sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor = 1 - TheValeyard
sullivlo = 1 - Ezra Scary Tenor
TheValeyard = 1 - Ectoplasm

sKeith wrote: »

Day 2 has ended.

Clarabel has been lynched.

Lynch results.

Clarabel = 4 - Baggly, Bounty Hunter, duffman 13, Necro
Ezra Scary Tenor = 2 - Ectoplasm, sullivlo
Necro = 2 - Clarabel, TheValeyard
bounty hunter = 1 - tusk
Green&Red = 1 - Ezra Scary Tenor
sullivlo = 1 - Green&Red
tusk = 1 - quickbeam
no lynch = 0


Night 2 begins.

Clarabel was rusty nayler, a vanilla villager.

Ok so looking at the two lynch votes.


Day 1 the no lynch wagon is Lough, tusk and BH.

Given Lough was munched night 1 I have to believe that wagon is pure as I don't think wolves eat into there if there's one or more on board.
Caveat there is Lough being the vig, would it be worth a one for one sacrifice? Maybe. But as someone said the vig isn't who they really want to find, there's as good a chance the vig might kill a villager as a wolf.

Looking further down and the two counter wagons (if you can call them that really) are 2D and tusk with two votes each.

Ok this is where it gets tricky, no red flips mean this is all supposition.

tusk no voting and being one away from death is a really good look, so more village points.

2D actually voting someone as well, if he's a wolf you'd imagine he'd hop on tusk for the easy out. Someone like me or GnR would likely draw more heat with a tusk village flip.

The rest is a mire of one voters. I'm not really sure if I can get anything from that at the moment anyways. But we can use it as comparison for day 2.


Ok and on to day 2:


So Clara gets lynched with four votes. Now, here's the thing with village mislynches.

Everyone always looks at the wagon starter or the person to vote last - but actually... and you can go back and read previous games to see I'm not being self serving here.

Anyways, actually mid wagon is where wolves prefer to be, second or third on a vote. They didn't start the wagon, they didn't finish it - it's a nice safe neutral land.

BH and duffers get put in the frame there as a result.

Would there be two wolves on Clara? It's possible. Unlikely, maybe our FBI person has more info in that regard. I can't say one way or another without at least one red flip.

Further down both myself and 2D have 2 votes each as well. sully has voted GnR and 2D now, I kind of like it? Shows she's at least changing her thought processes.

Ditto with Ecto, though the voting the low posters... eh... nah it's a similar train here.

On myself Clara is flipped village and Vale. Vale voted 2D day 1, they have not interacted since and Vale has given no indication as to why he's voting either way each day. Red flag due to lack of posting but I guess he's being open? I just wish he'd give us something more.


quickbeams votes are weird. Ecto day 1, random.org she mentioned? Last time I heard her mention this she was an SK. Then voting tusk based off Baggly's say so day 2. This is a bizarre game from her if she's a villager.

tusk not voting then voting BH... eh... village I think. Very tunnelly village. I think tusk/Pawwed is probably town tbh.

G&R's votes are intriguing. I'm not sure what to make of them. He's basically OMGUSed sully from day 1 here, and voted alongside me on tusk day 1.


This is all supposition as I did caveat but I guess:

Conclusions:

Pawwed/tusk & BH most likely village from voting patterns

2D possibly village because no self-press day 1

Ecto, sully - light village. Changing their thought patterns clearly on thread.

Sully is kind of an enigma though as she hasn't many posts so would have less of a village lean here.

duffman - late votes, dodgy reasoning on Clara based off his posts. Has wolf equity

Baggly - eh... changes votes both days, first on Clara wagon (technically). Hard to say. Reads not always aligning with his FFAs. Posting interactions analysis which is helpful but his reads are not showing what his results are at all. Has wolf equity

quickbeam - bizarre voting pattern. Not really following the thread, bandwagoning and being antagonistic - has wolf equity but I'm wondering is that confirmation bias as she's pissing me off with her nonsense.

Valeyard - low posting - seemingly random votes, no reasoning. High wolf equity.

GnR - strange, early votes both days. Kinda tunnelly. Village lean, just. Has some wolf equity though.


So my own call -

duffers
Vale
QB

With a side of potentially Baggly or GnR if one of those is wrong.

And that's whats I gots.

Green&Red

So basically stop accusing you?

Rightio so

Necro

Right I'm out for an hour or so. I'm tired after all that wagonomics

Bounty Hunter

You used a hell of a lot of words to end up with my FFA Necro :pac:

Baggly

Green&Red wrote: »

So basically stop accusing you?

Rightio so

Base your accusations on some actual work. Fit your theories to match the evidence, not the other way around.

Again, you literally just twisted what i said. I said if you have something to base your accusations on other than bias (i.e. analysis) then present it.

Necro

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

You used a hell of a lot of words to end up with my FFA Necro :pac:

Did I :pac:

You can at least see how I drew those conclusions though I hope :cool:

Right I'm really gone now, laters if I'm still alive.

duffman13

Necro wrote: »

Ok so I can't sleep. Enough feeling sorry for myself, I'm always terrible day 1 (yes day 1 was technically yesterday but ho hum, no lynch and whatnot)




So duffers FFAs Clara which is fair dinkum and all that, I can't really disagree with it, I felt similar if I'm completely honest.

Has myself and GnR in some sort of weird mish mash twofer which I never really like (Note this is hedging peeps, the correct terminology you're looking for me is flailing).

And Ecto, who tbf he did vote yesterday.

He notes BH and tusk (now Pawwed) killing Lough would be a bit bizarre as well - and I agree with this.

What's more interesting though is his later post on Lough's interactions..



So basically I get the feeling he's not wolf leaning Clara here from this post, but he doesn't retract the read which is a bit contradictory.

He goes on and talks about Baggly a bit - and village leans Baggly which is grand, I do agree with this post.


But compare his FFA to his comments here on Lough/Clara discussion and they don't really align.


I'm gonna try and look at a few more people tonight/tomorrow if I get a chance, but I'm kinda looking more closely at duffers based off these two posts if I'm honest.

Hedging, I reasoned in the post as I thought one of you was a wolf but not both, its an educated assumption. You agreed with the majority of my assumptions or thoughts in the above post but not that one. Ok

How do my comments on Clara and the Loughc discussion not align. Loughc thought Clara was wolfy, I had Ecto or Clara as my two to pick from late last night on a skim read. Both werent setting the world alight in terms of how I felt about them.

You getting a feeling is something I cant do much about. I presented all of Loughs posts with replies from various posters and noted a few things. I was 50/50 on Ecto or Clara last night, the fact Lough felt strongly on Clara was on my mind hence my decision to go Clara over Ecto. Your reading of my post is a strange interpratation of it tbh.

Baggly

Necro....re: your wolf equity call on me. Its based on reads not aligning with analysis? So you are discounting the reasoning i provided yesterday, which you accepted at the time. Why have you changed your mind.

Vote going in on Necro. Interactions analysis wont show it because he has interacted with everyone, but every single other tell i know for Necro has been activated. Ill die before i change my mind. He is plainly playing his wolf game.

Necro

Are you voting me prior to munch cos you know I won't die or something?

duffman13

Necro wrote: »

Conclusions:

Pawwed/tusk & BH most likely village from voting patterns

2D possibly village because no self-press day 1

Ecto, sully - light village. Changing their thought patterns clearly on thread.

Sully is kind of an enigma though as she hasn't many posts so would have less of a village lean here.

duffman - late votes, dodgy reasoning on Clara based off his posts. Has wolf equity

Baggly - eh... changes votes both days, first on Clara wagon (technically). Hard to say. Reads not always aligning with his FFAs. Posting interactions analysis which is helpful but his reads are not showing what his results are at all. Has wolf equity

quickbeam - bizarre voting pattern. Not really following the thread, bandwagoning and being antagonistic - has wolf equity but I'm wondering is that confirmation bias as she's pissing me off with her nonsense.

Valeyard - low posting - seemingly random votes, no reasoning. High wolf equity.

GnR - strange, early votes both days. Kinda tunnelly. Village lean, just. Has some wolf equity though.


So my own call -

duffers
Vale
QB

With a side of potentially Baggly or GnR if one of those is wrong.

And that's whats I gots.

Doubling down on a factual innacuracy, Okey doke

Also I pointed out that I thought BH/Tusk were village based on votes, why would I do that if I was a wolf although it doesnt take a genius to figure it out.

Also your analaysis of Baggly would match up with pretty much the way I would look at you, would you give yourself some low wolf equity based on that?

Bounty Hunter

Necro wrote: »

Are you voting me prior to munch cos you know I won't die or something?

Could know you will and that will look good for him as he could not have known that was going to happen if he voted to lynch you already.

That said he isn't in my most wolfy still

Green&Red

Baggly wrote: »

FINALLY. Jesus we talk some amount of waffle sometimes.

From your table I’ve yet to interact with Duffers but he is my strongest wolf read and currently where my vote would be

You want something concrete

You said yesterday that your table would lead us to a killer, I’m flat out accusing you of providing data that’s useless. I pointed to a previous game where YOU claimed it led to a wolf. The truth was the seer led you to me being a wolf, I accused QB and you guys killed her. YOU ignored your own data and now with no way of knowing you’re saying that same data would have led you to my wolf buddies? But st the same time you didn’t lynch either of them after that?

So yes, I’m calling BS on your helpfulness, this is what wolf Baggly does

And what’s more - the fact QB hasn’t been all over you is even more dodge, she’s your wolf buddy

Baggly

To be extremely clear, my rationale is thus:

strike 1: Necro derails thread with veto stuff. He did something similar in Sherlock by starting a massive discussion on the merits of read lists vs ffas in the middle of the day. We lost hours of actual discussion time. Added to the confusion in thread and allowed him to coast by.

strike 2: Necro getting shirty about other people not putting in work, necro continually reminding us how he is chilling out in this game. Now this is a contradiction. Maybe he just decided not to chill anymore. But thats not the point. The point is he is posting about himself too much. He is being hyper aware of his own contributions. Another red flag from Sherlock.

strike 3: abandons own conclusions from yesterday to align against me. He accepted me reasoning on thread for why my interactions didnt match my FFA. He said it. And yet now its a reason to have me in wolf equity. He also hasnt explained why those factors override the other factors he used to lean village on me. Its a massive swing and im waiting to see how it swung thusly.

Baggly

Necro wrote: »

Are you voting me prior to munch cos you know I won't die or something?

Read the lynch thread. Anything after 10am counts for lynch.

Necro

Baggly wrote: »

Necro....re: your wolf equity call on me. Its based on reads not aligning with analysis? So you are discounting the reasoning i provided yesterday, which you accepted at the time. Why have you changed your mind.

Vote going in on Necro. Interactions analysis wont show it because he has interacted with everyone, but every single other tell i know for Necro has been activated. Ill die before i change my mind. He is plainly playing his wolf game.

So you're ignoring your own data based off your bizarre tells of me - which will be proven horrifically wrong if you continue down this path...

Jeez dude you're not doing much to dissuade my doubts.

Your reads are not aligning, you keep wolf reading Vale but you won't FFA him, why is that?

Ditto sully, you keep putting both into player salad but you don't wanna push them?

Baggly

Green&Red wrote: »

From your table I’ve yet to interact with Duffers but he is my strongest wolf read and currently where my vote would be

You want something concrete

You said yesterday that your table would lead us to a killer, I’m flat out accusing you of providing data that’s useless. I pointed to a previous game where YOU claimed it led to a wolf. The truth was the seer led you to me being a wolf, I accused QB and you guys killed her. YOU ignored your own data and now with no way of knowing you’re saying that same data would have led you to my wolf buddies? But st the same time you didn’t lynch either of them after that?

So yes, I’m calling BS on your helpfulness, this is what wolf Baggly does

And what’s more - the fact QB hasn’t been all over you is even more dodge, she’s your wolf buddy

Please present this quote. Then i will address the rest of your post. Before you present it (which you cant since the above is massive misrepresentation) the rest of your post is based on a fallacy, and thus not worth my time in responding to it.