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Clue: A 13 player Murder Mystery game.

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12467…68

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    #92
    Bounty Hunter
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 22,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bounty Hunter


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    I think based on numbers a no lynch on Day 1 is a bad plan. We gift them a kill and gain nothing for it.

    I agree with this but unless someone starts acting wolfy soon I might still vote no lynch as I don't want to contribute to someones death when I have nothing on them and obviously vote earlier than most.


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    #93
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    What info do you think we will get from a blind lynch tonight Ecto?


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    #94
    Clarabel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,926 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    I think it's easy for a wolf to hide in a no lynch vote. I'll be looking suspiciously there tomorrow


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    #95
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Baggly wrote: »
    What info do you think we will get from a blind lynch tonight Ecto?

    It's not necessarily about that (Also we have a couple of hours yet)

    It's about handing the initiative to the wolves while giving ourselves fcuk all to go on.

    Voting for No Lynch tonight means we get nada from it.

    Just my opinion though


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    #96
    Bounty Hunter
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 22,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bounty Hunter


    Clarabel wrote: »
    I think it's easy for a wolf to hide in a no lynch vote. I'll be looking suspiciously there tomorrow

    If like myself you had to vote in the next 30ish minutes would you have a strong enough suspicion of someone to vote atm?


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    #97
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    A no info blind lynch is more likely to be all over the place and not provide info.

    Its also more risky in terms of an RV being killed without notice or a chance to defend themselves.

    If we kill a villager by accident tonight then we narrow the pool of people the wolves pick from to find RVs.

    Yes we can't hit a wolf if we no Lynch, but we definitely don't hit a villager or RV. We save a number for when we have more info and aren't picking someone to lynch randomly.


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    #98
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Necro wrote: »
    It's not necessarily about that (Also we have a couple of hours yet)

    It's about handing the initiative to the wolves while giving ourselves fcuk all to go on.

    Voting for No Lynch tonight means we get nada from it.

    Just my opinion though

    So answer the question I asked Ecto. What will we likely get from tonight's lynch, if we avoid a no vote.


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    #99
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    If people think there is a good reason to vote for someone, state it.

    Don't just neg on no vote on principal. Provide a better target as an alternative.


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    #100
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Ok lemme run the numbers here for a minute

    Lynch tonight - No Lynch - 10 v 3

    Munch - 9 v 3

    Mislynch - 8 v 3

    Munch and vig friendly fire - 6 v 3

    Mislynch - 5 v 3

    Munch - 4 v 3

    LYLO

    Take out the friendly fire and it buys us an extra lynch but definitively we really only have 3 opportunities to find a wolf.

    So... lynching tonight

    Mislynch 9 v 3

    Munch 8 v 3

    Mislynch 7 v 3

    Munch 6 v 3

    Mislynch 5 v 3

    Munch 4 v 3

    LYLO



    Not lynching tonight I guess gives our vig some wiggle room??


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    #101
    Ectoplasm
    Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭Ectoplasm


    Baggly wrote: »
    What info do you think we will get from a blind lynch tonight Ecto?

    It doesn't so much matter what info we get. The point is that we get MORE info from a lynch than we get from a no lynch. Wolves have to pick a place to vote so it forces some action or thought.

    Lynches are the way the village kill wolves but we want to give that up and hand them the kill without having to do anything before it? A no lynch is a cosy wagon to sit on. Lets not make it too easy for them.


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    #102
    Clarabel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,926 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    Bounty Hunter wrote: »
    If like myself you had to vote in the next 30ish minutes would you have a strong enough suspicion of someone to vote atm?

    Gun to head. You or Baggly.

    You. Revenge.
    Bags. Guts. I'm trying to suss it, I wanted to take a bit of time to work through my thoughts here. But you asked so there it is


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    #103
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    It doesn't so much matter what info we get. The point is that we get MORE info from a lynch than we get from a no lynch. Wolves have to pick a place to vote so it forces some action or thought.

    Lynches are the way the village kill wolves but we want to give that up and hand them the kill without having to do anything before it? A no lynch is a cosy wagon to sit on. Lets not make it too easy for them.

    You don't think then little info we get from a blind lynch is outweighed by more time later when we do have more info?


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    #104
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Also, present a lynch target Ecto.


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    #105
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Clarabel wrote: »
    Gun to head. You or Baggly.

    You. Revenge.
    Bags. Guts. I'm trying to suss it, I wanted to take a bit of time to work through my thoughts here. But you asked so there it is

    Don't think Baggly's a wolf, a wolf would jump on board no lynch but not suggest and argue for it strongly. IMO.

    I'd be looking at QB who is normally against it but just happily acquiesced immediately once it was suggested.


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    #106
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Also is tusk suffering from frozen wolf syndrome or something?


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    #107
    Clarabel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,926 ✭✭✭Clarabel


    Necro wrote: »
    Don't think Baggly's a wolf, a wolf would jump on board no lynch but not suggest and argue for it strongly. IMO.

    I'd be looking at QB who is normally against it but just happily acquiesced immediately once it was suggested.

    Which comes back to you and Bags being a tag team and Bags getting overly defensive about it.


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    #108
    Ectoplasm
    Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭Ectoplasm


    Baggly wrote: »
    You don't think then little info we get from a blind lynch is outweighed by more time later when we do have more info?

    I don't believe we actually get anymore time. We don't postpone a mislynch we just give one up.


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    #109
    Ectoplasm
    Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭Ectoplasm


    Baggly wrote: »
    Also, present a lynch target Ecto.

    Looking for a bandwagon? :P

    I am reading and seeing what's what. When I have one you will know.


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    #110
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Clarabel wrote: »
    Which comes back to you and Bags being a tag team and Bags getting overly defensive about it.

    Where did you get that from though? My mention of PETA? That's a strange line to push this early.

    I might be on a team with Baggly, if he's a villager - which I currently lightly read him as.

    But I don't know for sure either way


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    #111
    Bounty Hunter
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 22,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bounty Hunter


    Clarabel wrote: »
    Gun to head. You or Baggly.

    You. Revenge.
    Bags. Guts. I'm trying to suss it, I wanted to take a bit of time to work through my thoughts here. But you asked so there it is

    Don't think I have names as quick as this I could justify but fair play. If people don't vote no lynch at least we can see if people were trying to influence the lynch in different directions.


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    #112
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Placeholder in for now anyways. tusk is hiding, what I'm not sure yet though.


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    #113
    Bounty Hunter
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 22,703 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bounty Hunter


    No Vote is a vote for "No Lynch", which is also valid target.

    So if someone is doing this they just don't vote? So no missed votes in this game? watch inactive players if so


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    #114
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    I don't believe we actually get anymore time. We don't postpone a mislynch we just give one up.

    We give the vig more wiggle room. He hits a wolf and suddenly our extra villager is very important.


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    #115
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Ectoplasm wrote: »
    Looking for a bandwagon? :P

    I am reading and seeing what's what. When I have one you will know.

    Not at all. But this anti no vote stuff is like Brexit. Ye are saying no on principal when noone has a decent actual plan or target.

    If ye did I'd vote for them. I'm not being defensive or close minded here.

    If anything looks wolfy its making sure there is a blind kill based on no info.


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    #116
    TheValeyard
    Registered Users Posts: 12,397 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Bounty Hunter wrote: »
    Alright 2D has me pocketed, Necro a little too. Love me some Scampi :pac:

    Can I offer you some chocolate croissants?

    All Eyes On Rafah



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    #117
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Vale who would you lynch if there wasn't an option to No Lynch?

    Actually same question to everyone.


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    #118
    TheValeyard
    Registered Users Posts: 12,397 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Necro wrote: »
    Vale who would you lynch if there wasn't an option to No Lynch?

    Actually same question to everyone.

    Colonel Mustard. With the candelabra in the library.

    All Eyes On Rafah



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    #119
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 51,401 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    TheValeyard wrote: »
    Colonel Mustard. With the candelabra in the library.

    giphy.gif


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    #120
    TheValeyard
    Registered Users Posts: 12,397 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    In the spirit of FIFA Fair Play, I won't be lynching Babybel.

    Out three games in a row would be Cruella de Vil.

    I'm voting 2D.

    Fifa fair play......arse!

    All Eyes On Rafah



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    #121
    Ectoplasm
    Registered Users Posts: 4,468 ✭✭✭Ectoplasm


    Baggly wrote: »
    We give the vig more wiggle room. He hits a wolf and suddenly our extra villager is very important.

    If he hits a wolf we don't need the wiggle room and doing slightly different numbers a mislynch tonight actually increases the vig's chance of an accurate hit.

    Lynch tonight - No Lynch - 10 v 3

    Munch - 9 v 3 N1

    Mislynch - 8 v 3 (Vig chance of accurate hit 27%)

    Munch and vig friendly fire - 6 v 3 N2

    Mislynch - 5 v 3

    Munch - 4 v 3

    LYLO



    Lynch tonight

    Mislynch 9 v 3 D1

    Munch 8 v 3 N1

    Mislynch 7 v 3 D2 (Vig chance of accurate hit 30%)

    Munch & vig friendly fire 5 v 3 N2

    Mislynch 4 v 3


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