Clue: A 13 player Murder Mystery game.

Bounty Hunter

Necro wrote: »

Tell me GnR, is it you, 2D and sully?

It doesn't matter, you likely have this won as I doubt Baggly is for turning tbh.

It's either sully or Ecto.

But it's you and 2D, you both played your hands a bit early.

QB being after Sulli has me cooling on her (QB) so atm I’d agree with those three but gotta say fair play to the wolves I didn’t really suspect most of them for most of the game.

Green&Red

Necro wrote: »

Tell me GnR, is it you, 2D and sully?

It doesn't matter, you likely have this won as I doubt Baggly is for turning tbh.

It's either sully or Ecto.

But it's you and 2D, you both played your hands a bit early.

Hilarious

I’d be fairly certain I’m on a team with 2D alright, he’s the one that started all the confusion yesterday by calling out the same bandwagon that was on Clara as being the same one as on Vale yesterday

Green&Red

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

Why leave the only guaranteed villager alive? Nope I don’t think he’s a secret wolf but I do think the wolves saw this and thought the village would follow his lead to a wolf victory by the end of the day.



Why else do they not kill baggly? He’s FBI (there is not going to be a counter claim at this stage) and the biggest threat to them but they don’t want him dead!

For future reference BH - this was a misstep, I’d have figured it out anyway I think but this post was rehearsed in your head, a couple of minutes after the announcement and you have the wolf excuse ready to go

Baggly

I checked tusk again. Obviously no joy.

Baggly

No joy = it was blocked.

quickbeam

So confused now.

Baggly

So the competing theories are it's Necro and he didn't lynch me to discredit me or its not Necro and wolves didn't lynch me to have me lynch Necro. Great.

quickbeam

Half of these are wolves:

Bounty Hunter
Ectoplasm
Green&Red
Ezra Scary Tenor
Necro
sullivlo

Baggly

quickbeam wrote: »

So confused now.

My power isn't a threat to the wolves because they can block it. I'm essentially a nrv.

quickbeam

Baggly wrote: »

My power isn't a threat to the wolves because they can block it. I'm essentially a nrv.

No, but your a fairly locked villager. Why leave you alive and reduce the pool in which we search?

I'm not doubting you. I mentioned all the scenarios where you might be a wolf yesterday evening and I'm not buying any of them.

But yeah, I think they're hoping you'll lead a Necro lynch and Game Over. I say no lynch tonight and Sully tomorrow.

Baggly

Gotta think BH is a wolf.

Green&Red

Baggly wrote: »

So the competing theories are it's Necro and he didn't lynch me to discredit me or its not Necro and wolves didn't lynch me to have me lynch Necro. Great.

FFS
It can only be Necro

If it’s not why would someone else leave you alive?

Imagine a scenario where you’re one of the other players, Necro isn’t on your wolf team, why do you leave Baggly alive?
That’s not a rhetorical question, I’d like to see what that scenario actually looks like

Baggly

quickbeam wrote: »

No, but your a fairly locked villager. Why leave you alive and reduce the pool in which we search?

I'm not doubting you. I mentioned all the scenarios where you might be a wolf yesterday evening and I'm not buying any of them.

But yeah, I think they're hoping you'll lead a Necro lynch and Game Over. I say no lynch tonight and Sully tomorrow.

This makes no sense.

Baggly

Green&Red wrote: »

FFS
It can only be Necro

If it’s not why would someone else leave you alive?

Imagine a scenario where you’re one of the other players, Necro isn’t on your wolf team, why do you leave Baggly alive?
That’s not a rhetorical question, I’d like to see what that scenario actually looks like

The scenario where all my reads are garbage.

Bounty Hunter

A lot of people seem very set in their opinions. I’m on my phone at a gender reveal shindig (not actually ours though we know ours now) so might be on and off but I fear this could be a long day of people talking to walls.

Green&Red

Baggly wrote: »

Gotta think BH is a wolf.

BH and Necro HAVE to be wolves
I think QB is the third but I’d be open to another player but the first two are BH and Necro, it’s literally the only team that makes any sense

Baggly

Spell out how it makes sense gnr. Need help getting it straight.

quickbeam

Green&Red wrote: »

FFS
It can only be Necro

If it’s not why would someone else leave you alive?

Imagine a scenario where you’re one of the other players, Necro isn’t on your wolf team, why do you leave Baggly alive?
That’s not a rhetorical question, I’d like to see what that scenario actually looks like

So, wolf-Necro leaves Baggly alive to lead the charge on a Necro lynch?

quickbeam

Baggly wrote: »

This makes no sense.

Which bit?

Baggly

Why defer a lynch until tomorrow. If you want sully dead why not today.

quickbeam

Anyone any good at stats? How many ways can six players be grouped in to three?

quickbeam

Baggly wrote: »

Why defer a lynch until tomorrow. If you want sully dead why not today.

No lynch today gives us a better chance of finding a wolf. 3/8 (37.5%) if we lynch tonight. 3/7 (nearly 43%) if we wait until tomorrow.

Which I said already. But see how I explain again rather than getting snarky and saying that you should go find the info yourself?

Bounty Hunter

Green&Red wrote: »

BH and Necro HAVE to be wolves
I think QB is the third but I’d be open to another player but the first two are BH and Necro, it’s literally the only team that makes any sense

This game continues to make no sense. Fair play wolves can’t see you losing this but I’m a villager and that will be shown in the end

Green&Red

Necro wrote: »

Tell me GnR, is it you, 2D and sully?

It doesn't matter, you likely have this won as I doubt Baggly is for turning tbh.

It's either sully or Ecto.

But it's you and 2D, you both played your hands a bit early.

So let’s do a little wagonomics on this theory

quickbeam wrote: »

I think this is right, each person's final votes:

Lynch 1 Lynch 2 Lynch 3
Baggly Bounty Hunter TheValeyard
Bounty Hunter No Lynch Clarabel TheValeyard
Clarabel Baggly Necro
duffman13 Ectoplasm Clarabel
Ectoplasm TheValeyard Ezra Scary Tenor No Lynch
Green&Red tusk -> Pawwed Rig sullivlo quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo Green&Red Bounty Hunter
Loughc No Lynch
Necro tusk -> Pawwed Rig Clarabel TheValeyard
quickbeam Ectoplasm tusk -> Pawwed Rig TheValeyard
sullivlo Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor TheValeyard
TheValeyard Ezra Scary Tenor Necro Bounty Hunter
tusk -> Pawwed Rig No Lynch Bounty Hunter TheValeyard

So D1 G&R and Ecto vote for two villagers
Sulli votes G&R; 2D votes Sulli - weird but not beyond possible

D2
G&R votes Sulli; 2D votes G&R - again possible
But this theory falls down next
Both Ecto and Sulli vote 2D, putting him one vote off a lynch
Do a wolf team put one of their own in danger when there’s no reason to?
Remember one of these two is a wolf along with 2D
Why do I not switch from Sulli to Clara just to be safe?
Or 2D to do that, even for self-pres reasons FFS
There’s huge holes in D2, like drive a tank through them holes


I don’t think there’s any need to go into D3

Necro, if you’d like to throw up another possibility I’m happy to debunk it

Green&Red

quickbeam wrote: »

No lynch today gives us a better chance of finding a wolf. 3/8 (37.5%) if we lynch tonight. 3/7 (nearly 43%) if we wait until tomorrow.

Which I said already. But see how I explain again rather than getting snarky and saying that you should go find the info yourself?

It did make sense if we were losing a possible suspect, we won’t, we’ll lose Baggly

Green&Red

quickbeam wrote: »

So, wolf-Necro leaves Baggly alive to lead the charge on a Necro lynch?

To cause confusion, it’s literally his only option at this stage

Green&Red

Baggly wrote: »

Spell out how it makes sense gnr. Need help getting it straight.

Does that bit of wagonomics help?

When you look at the team options it has to be Bh and Necro

I think the third is QB but the only two I’d be certain of are you and 2D
So there’s a wolf in G&R, QB, Sulli and Ecto

Necro was pushing a trio of Sulli/Vale/2D for a long time, one wolf there he said
Bluff? Double bluff?

Green&Red

Looking at the scenarios of who they munch

L4 - Necro
M4 - Baggly
L5 - BH
M5 - Probably 2D or maybe me

Which leaves us with that group of G&R/Sulli/QB/Ecto

Green&Red

Actually no lynch might be better

Green&Red

L4 - no one
M4 -Baggly
L5 - Necro
M5 - 2D
L6 - BH
M6 - say G&R
L7 is down to three
Sulli/Ecto/QB