Clue: A 13 player Murder Mystery game.

Necro

Remember when GnR was asking me, begging me to do wagonomics yesterday lol.

Its cos hes so sure he fooled me, but sure as I said you cant do wagonomics without a red flip properly and even then it's not exact.

Vote away on me but its handing him the game.

Look at his change post munch, was mellow and asking for reads all night then goes from 0 to 100 in about 5 mins afterwards.

It's all pre planned and calculated.

2D is a wolf because of his staunch defense of Vale yesterday, he KNEW he was going to flip village so could afford to defend him.

They've both avoided the main wagon every day as well, even 2D voting GnR as there was no pressure.

GnR went after sully for voting him but not 2D, complete contrast, its definitely them.

Not sure on the third the sully vote and subsequent OMGUS makes me think maybe Ecto but I'm pretty sure on 2D and GnR.

Wouldnt have been if it wasnt for the 360 on me post munch though.

Bounty Hunter

I always continue to argue my corner but I screwed up with my choices for lynch twice.

Some aren’t admitting that both of those players did look dodgy in their play in the slightest and that in itself is dodgy.

Others don’t seem to care that Sulli just went with the flow voting Vale in stead of going with her supposed top choice. Nope they have pre selected who to go after no matter what

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

Anyone any good at stats? How many ways can six players be grouped in to three?

Okay, I think the answer to the above is 20.

But for the sake of fairness I put seven players in the mix, including myself. If Baggly's a wolf we're doomed anyway. And seven players can be grouped in to groups of three, 35 different ways:

Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Green&Red
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Necro
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Necro
Bounty Hunter Green&Red quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Green&Red sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Necro quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Necro sullivlo
Bounty Hunter sullivlo quickbeam
Ectoplasm Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor
Ectoplasm Green&Red Necro
Ectoplasm Green&Red quickbeam
Ectoplasm Green&Red sullivlo
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Ectoplasm Necro quickbeam
Ectoplasm Necro sullivlo
Ectoplasm sullivlo quickbeam
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Green&Red Necro quickbeam
Green&Red Necro sullivlo
Green&Red sullivlo quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo quickbeam
Necro sullivlo quickbeam


So, Baggly maybe is the best person to answer this with his "interactions" spreadsheet. Which of those combos don't make sense, so we can reduce the 35 somewhat.

Green&Red

Vote in for no lynch

Bounty Hunter

quickbeam wrote: »

Okay, I think the answer to the above is 20.

But for the sake of fairness I put seven players in the mix, including myself. If Baggly's a wolf we're doomed anyway. And seven players can be grouped in to groups of three, 35 different ways:

Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Green&Red
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Necro
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Necro
Bounty Hunter Green&Red quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Green&Red sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Necro quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Necro sullivlo
Bounty Hunter sullivlo quickbeam
Ectoplasm Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor
Ectoplasm Green&Red Necro
Ectoplasm Green&Red quickbeam
Ectoplasm Green&Red sullivlo
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Ectoplasm Necro quickbeam
Ectoplasm Necro sullivlo
Ectoplasm sullivlo quickbeam
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Green&Red Necro quickbeam
Green&Red Necro sullivlo
Green&Red sullivlo quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo quickbeam
Necro sullivlo quickbeam


So, Baggly maybe is the best person to answer this with his "interactions" spreadsheet. Which of those combos don't make sense, so we can reduce the 35 somewhat.

We’re you guys working on your interactions ever since baggly started doing those tables? Handy guy to have around if you were sure he would be going after Necro or me after munch and could back you up with his data.

Green&Red

Necro wrote: »

Remember when GnR was asking me, begging me to do wagonomics yesterday lol.

Its cos hes so sure he fooled me, but sure as I said you cant do wagonomics without a red flip properly and even then it's not exact.

Vote away on me but its handing him the game.

Look at his change post munch, was mellow and asking for reads all night then goes from 0 to 100 in about 5 mins afterwards.

It's all pre planned and calculated.

2D is a wolf because of his staunch defense of Vale yesterday, he KNEW he was going to flip village so could afford to defend him.

They've both avoided the main wagon every day as well, even 2D voting GnR as there was no pressure.

GnR went after sully for voting him but not 2D, complete contrast, its definitely them.

Not sure on the third the sully vote and subsequent OMGUS makes me think maybe Ecto but I'm pretty sure on 2D and GnR.

Wouldnt have been if it wasnt for the 360 on me post munch though.

OK, I know I shouldn’t but I’ll bite, although I know engaging with you is the wrong thing to do

2D and I are on a wolf team - why do I not switch to Clara and give her four votes? One late vote on 2D and he’s dead
Why do one of the two people you claim could be my other wolf buddy not move off 2D, easy thing to do!

Yesterday you were all about the data going after Vale, why not today?
Cause those are facts, these things actually happened in this game

Compare this to the control you wielded over the game yesterday

Bounty Hunter

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

We’re you guys working on your interactions ever since baggly started doing those tables? Handy guy to have around if you were sure he would be going after Necro or me after munch and could back you up with his data.

Hahaha, I thought that was GnR, stupid phone posting

quickbeam

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

We’re you guys working on your interactions ever since baggly started doing those tables? Handy guy to have around if you were sure he would be going after Necro or me after munch and could back you up with his data.

Care to actually provide something constructive regarding combos to rule out, rather than some deep shading?

I'm not a wolf.

Green&Red

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

We’re you guys working on your interactions ever since baggly started doing those tables? Handy guy to have around if you were sure he would be going after Necro or me after munch and could back you up with his data.

Who are you guys?

BH I’ve been flat out calling you a wolf since munch and you’ve never come up with an alternative

quickbeam

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

Hahaha, I thought that was GnR, stupid phone posting

quickbeam wrote: »

Care to actually provide something constructive regarding combos to rule out, rather than some deep shading?

I'm not a wolf.

Necro

Green&Red wrote: »

OK, I know I shouldn’t but I’ll bite, although I know engaging with you is the wrong thing to do

2D and I are on a wolf team - why do I not switch to Clara and give her four votes? One late vote on 2D and he’s dead
Why do one of the two people you claim could be my other wolf buddy not move off 2D, easy thing to do!

Yesterday you were all about the data going after Vale, why not today?
Cause those are facts, these things actually happened in this game

Compare this to the control you wielded over the game yesterday

I love the fact you're using flawed wagonomics on me

You're using QB's table which is missing Baggly's vote.

Clara did have 4 votes

Baggly, Bounty, duffman, and me

You have absolutely no reason to save 2D in that scenario

Bounty Hunter

Green&Red wrote: »

Who are you guys?

BH I’ve been flat out calling you a wolf since munch and you’ve never come up with an alternative

Umm I have I said it was 2D and Sulli and that since munch your behavior has made you no.3

You guys are the wolves

Necro

quickbeam wrote: »

I think this is right, each person's final votes:

Lynch 1 Lynch 2 Lynch 3
Baggly Bounty Hunter TheValeyard
Bounty Hunter No Lynch Clarabel TheValeyard
Clarabel Baggly Necro
duffman13 Ectoplasm Clarabel
Ectoplasm TheValeyard Ezra Scary Tenor No Lynch
Green&Red tusk -> Pawwed Rig sullivlo quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo Green&Red Bounty Hunter
Loughc No Lynch
Necro tusk -> Pawwed Rig Clarabel TheValeyard
quickbeam Ectoplasm tusk -> Pawwed Rig TheValeyard
sullivlo Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor TheValeyard
TheValeyard Ezra Scary Tenor Necro Bounty Hunter
tusk -> Pawwed Rig No Lynch Bounty Hunter TheValeyard

This table you're basing your theory on is flawed GnR


Table is missing Baggly's vote.

Want me to prove it?

BOOM

sKeith wrote: »

Day 2 has ended.

Clarabel has been lynched.

Lynch results.

Clarabel = 4
Ezra Scary Tenor = 2
Necro = 2
bounty hunter = 1
Green&Red = 1
sullivlo = 1
tusk = 1
no lynch = 0


Night 2 begins.

Clarabel was rusty nayler, a vanilla villager.

quickbeam

Okay, let's rearrange the lynch results:

Lynch 1:
No Lynch (3) - Bounty Hunter, Loughc, tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Ectoplasm (2) - duffman13, quickbeam
tusk -> Pawwed Rig (2) - Green&Red, Necro
Baggly (1) - Clarabel
Bounty Hunter (1) - Baggly
Green&Red (1) - sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor (1) - TheValeyard
sullivlo (1) - Ezra Scary Tenor
TheValeyard (1) - Ectoplasm

Lynch 2:
Clarabel (4) - Baggly, Bounty Hunter, duffman13, Necro
Ezra Scary Tenor (2) - Ectoplasm, sullivlo
Necro (2) - Clarabel, TheValeyard
Bounty Hunter (1) - tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Green&Red (1) - Ezra Scary Tenor
sullivlo (1) - Green&Red
tusk -> Pawwed Rig (1) - quickbeam

Lynch 3:
TheValeyard (6) - Baggly, Bounty Hunter, Necro, quickbeam, sullivlo, tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Bounty Hunter (2) - Ezra Scary Tenor, TheValeyard
No Lynch (1) - Ectoplasm
quickbeam (1) - Green&Red


Based on that, some combos we can rule out:
Any team that has Necro and GnR - based on voting together Lynch 1
Any team that has Ecto and QB - based on latter voting for former Lynch 1
Any team that has Ecto and Sully - based on voting together Lynch 2
Any team that has 2D and Bounty - based former voting for latter on Lynch 3

Thoughts?

Necro

Green&Red wrote: »

OK, I know I shouldn’t but I’ll bite, although I know engaging with you is the wrong thing to do

2D and I are on a wolf team - why do I not switch to Clara and give her four votes? One late vote on 2D and he’s dead
Why do one of the two people you claim could be my other wolf buddy not move off 2D, easy thing to do!

Yesterday you were all about the data going after Vale, why not today?
Cause those are facts, these things actually happened in this game

Compare this to the control you wielded over the game yesterday

Facts, indeed

Look you're likely gonna win but sure that's grand. I'm just glad I'm finally starting to figure it out before I get killed

Green&Red

quickbeam wrote: »

Okay, let's rearrange the lynch results:

Lynch 1:
No Lynch (3) - Bounty Hunter, Loughc, tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Ectoplasm (2) - duffman13, quickbeam
tusk -> Pawwed Rig (2) - Green&Red, Necro
Baggly (1) - Clarabel
Bounty Hunter (1) - Baggly
Green&Red (1) - sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor (1) - TheValeyard
sullivlo (1) - Ezra Scary Tenor
TheValeyard (1) - Ectoplasm

Lynch 2:
Clarabel (4) - Baggly, Bounty Hunter, duffman13, Necro
Ezra Scary Tenor (2) - Ectoplasm, sullivlo
Necro (2) - Clarabel, TheValeyard
Bounty Hunter (1) - tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Green&Red (1) - Ezra Scary Tenor
sullivlo (1) - Green&Red
tusk -> Pawwed Rig (1) - quickbeam

Lynch 3:
TheValeyard (6) - Baggly, Bounty Hunter, Necro, quickbeam, sullivlo, tusk -> Pawwed Rig
Bounty Hunter (2) - Ezra Scary Tenor, TheValeyard
No Lynch (1) - Ectoplasm
quickbeam (1) - Green&Red


Based on that, some combos we can rule out:
Any team that has Necro and GnR - based on voting together Lynch 1
Any team that has Ecto and QB - based on latter voting for former Lynch 1
Any team that has Ecto and Sully - based on voting together Lynch 2
Any team that has 2D and Bounty - based former voting for latter on Lynch 3

Thoughts?

Necro and BH voted together on Lynch 2 but you’ve conveniently left that out. They are a wolf team

quickbeam

Based on that, we eliminate 19 combos, put them to the bottom of the pile. Leaves 16:

Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Green&Red
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Necro
Bounty Hunter Green&Red quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Green&Red sullivlo
Bounty Hunter Necro quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Necro sullivlo
Bounty Hunter sullivlo quickbeam
Ectoplasm Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor Necro
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo
Green&Red sullivlo quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro quickbeam
Ezra Scary Tenor Necro sullivlo
Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo quickbeam
Necro sullivlo quickbeam
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor 2D / Bounty combo
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor 2D / Bounty combo
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor Necro 2D / Bounty combo
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam 2D / Bounty combo
Bounty Hunter Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo 2D / Bounty combo
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm quickbeam Ecto/QB combo
Ectoplasm Green&Red quickbeam Ecto/QB combo
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor quickbeam Ecto/QB combo
Ectoplasm Necro quickbeam Ecto/QB combo
Ectoplasm sullivlo quickbeam Ecto/QB combo / Ecto/Sully combo
Bounty Hunter Ectoplasm sullivlo Ecto/Sully combo
Ectoplasm Green&Red sullivlo Ecto/Sully combo
Ectoplasm Ezra Scary Tenor sullivlo Ecto/Sully combo
Ectoplasm Necro sullivlo Ecto/Sully combo
Bounty Hunter Green&Red Necro GnR / Necro combo
Ectoplasm Green&Red Necro GnR / Necro combo
Green&Red Ezra Scary Tenor Necro GnR / Necro combo
Green&Red Necro quickbeam GnR / Necro combo
Green&Red Necro sullivlo GnR / Necro combo

quickbeam

Green&Red wrote: »

Necro and BH voted together on Lynch 2 but you’ve conveniently left that out. They are a wolf team

Yes, but they weren't the only two to vote together, as there were others.

Besides, if you're hinting at me being on a team with them, wouldn't I want to include them in those I rule out as a combo? I left them in as a potential combo.

Green&Red

Necro wrote: »

Facts, indeed

Look you're likely gonna win but sure that's grand. I'm just glad I'm finally starting to figure it out before I get killed

Even that doesn’t make sense, if I was a wolf I’d be hiding now, I’d be letting Baggly come on here and do the work, I definitely wouldn’t be getting this involved

The reason I am this involved is cause you pocketed my so nicely and I want you dead

quickbeam

Green&Red wrote: »

Necro and BH voted together on Lynch 2 but you’ve conveniently left that out. They are a wolf team

If they are a team, then the wagonomics there seem to point towards them saving either Necro or 2D or both?

Necro

Green&Red wrote: »

Even that doesn’t make sense, if I was a wolf I’d be hiding now, I’d be letting Baggly come on here and do the work, I definitely wouldn’t be getting this involved

The reason I am this involved is cause you pocketed my so nicely and I want you dead

Remember the last time we ripped each other to shreds? We were both villagers then - if somehow you're a villager just try to bear that in mind.

It's what's holding me back from just snap voting you tbh.

quickbeam

What other feuds have there been? I'd like to rule out a combo with me/Necro and me/Sully but I don't want to be accused of doctoring the combos list. Would there be consensus to ruling out those combos?

And as I, admittedly, hadn't been paying attention the first few days I'm not sure what other feuds could lead to a combo being ruled out.

Green&Red

Whether you did it on purpose or not
My point stands that Bh and Necro votes together and are a wolf team so eliminating those pairs is pointless as it assumes a wrong assumption

I will do my best not to tunnel you QB
We have two wolves, I’ll wait and see who is left before a final judgement, currently you’re top of my list

Necro

quickbeam wrote: »

What other feuds have there been? I'd like to rule out a combo with me/Necro and me/Sully but I don't want to be accused of doctoring the combos list. Would there be consensus to ruling out those combos?

And as I, admittedly, hadn't been paying attention the first few days I'm not sure what other feuds could lead to a combo being ruled out.

I'm a villager so I'd like to rule myself out of any wolf team combo personally, is that allowed?

quickbeam

Green&Red wrote: »

Whether you did it on purpose or not
My point stands that Bh and Necro votes together and are a wolf team so eliminating those pairs is pointless as it assumes a wrong assumption

I will do my best not to tunnel you QB
We have two wolves, I’ll wait and see who is left before a final judgement, currently you’re top of my list

But I didn't eliminate any team that had Bounty and Necro on it together?

quickbeam

Necro wrote: »

I'm a villager so I'd like to rule myself out of any wolf team combo personally, is that allowed?

No.

Necro

quickbeam wrote: »

No.

Fine. I'll keep it in my head though as I know it's not possible. :cool:

quickbeam

Necro wrote: »

Fine. I'll keep it in my head though as I know it's not possible. :cool:

I know any with me in is not possible either. But I still included me for completeness sake. You think it helps to eliminate everyone who comes along and says: "eliminate all of those with me in it, because I'm a villager". How many combos do you think we'll have left then?

You're being a very silly boy.

Necro

Can we all agree that 2D has the most combos and if we actually lynch anyone it probably should be them?

Still prefer the No Lynch option tbh though. Let them narrow the pool even if they do just chomp Baggly.

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

You're being a very silly boy.

... and not doing yourself any favours