Hurricane Dorian

JCX BXC

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Anyone else get the feeling the Americans have found a way of steering these hurricanes out of harms way of mainland US

No.

silverharp

^^
https://twitter.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1168599473448280066

JCX BXC

That article suggests sending 'thoughts and prayers' does work.

Hilarious read.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

That article suggests sending 'thoughts and prayers' does work.

Hilarious read.

It is a satirical site

JCX BXC

MJohnston wrote: »

It is a satirical site

Ah

Only glanced at it

igCorcaigh

Such a slow moving and devastating storm.
Has the eye moved over Freeport yet?

EDIT: it seems to be moving north of the island a bit, still crawling and not past the west end of the island. Freeport must be getting hammered by the outer eyewall.

refusetolose

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Anyone else get the feeling the Americans have found a way of steering these hurricanes out of harms way of mainland US

the navy put ice in the water
then the airforce flew into the hurricane and flew in the opposite direction of the hurricane winds

screamer

Maybe it’s pure self interest but as these things have a habit of bouncing over towards us, what are the chances we get the tail of this?

JanuarySnowstor

Folk must be very naive if they think the Americans couldn't affect the weather. Cloud seeding has been around for years. I'm not saying they are but I am saying I believe it's possible

jackboy

screamer wrote: »

Maybe it’s pure self interest but as these things have a habit of bouncing over towards us, what are the chances we get the tail of this?

Looking at windy.com looks like it will fizzle out around Iceland.

igCorcaigh

screamer wrote: »

Maybe it’s pure self interest but as these things have a habit of bouncing over towards us, what are the chances we get the tail of this?

Possible, but predicting it's course right now is tricky enough.

igCorcaigh

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Folk must be very naive if they think the Americans couldn't affect the weather. Cloud seeding has been around for years. I'm not saying they are but I am saying I believe it's possible

Cloud seeding is a low tech attempt at creating rainclouds. Not seeing the relevance here.

igCorcaigh

Seems good news for florida now, it's heading north, bypassing Freeport and moving up north.

Gaoth Laidir

A dropsonde in the eye has just found a central pressure of 941 hPa. The aircraft data say 942.0 hPa. Huge fill.

NIMAN

BBC news reporting it is actually now stationary.

Terrible for those in the Bahamas getting battered by it constantly. No reprieve.

igCorcaigh

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

A dropsonde in the eye has just found a central pressure of 941 hPa. The aircraft data say 942.0 hPa. Huge fill.

Wasn't it something like 910 yesterday?

Gaoth Laidir

Settlement Point's pressure has stopped falling now and the wind's not really getting much stronger.

Gaoth Laidir

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Wasn't it something like 910 yesterday?

I think it got to 908.

Stop moaning ffs

The airport at Freeport

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560?s=21

JCX BXC

Seaport*

Safe to say it's not reporting a METAR.

In all seriousness that's shocking, some damage caused.

Akrasia

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah

Only glanced at it

Not really funny to be making fun of a storm where there are parents, right now, holding on to their children with all their strength to prevent them from being blown or washed away

It’s absolutely horrific what these poor people are going through right now and what lies ahead of them in the weeks months and years ahead

And the US president, who is a climate change denier, says he’s never heard of a category 5 hurricane before despite the unprecedented parade of these storms affecting his own nation in the 3 years since he took office

JCX BXC

They're not making fun of the destruction though are they?

Not a discussion I'm willing to have so I bow out here.

Akrasia

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Folk must be very naive if they think the Americans couldn't affect the weather. Cloud seeding has been around for years. I'm not saying they are but I am saying I believe it's possible

Please go away. It’s pathetic that you think sprinkling salt crystals on a category 5 hurricane would change it’s course

It’s ok to think such stupid ideas, it’s different to express them confidently in public

Akrasia

JCX BXC wrote: »

They're not making fun of the destruction though are they?

Not a discussion I'm willing to have so I bow out here.

There are videos of mothers pleading with god for the storm to end to protect their children.

I’m an atheist who hates the ‘thoughts and prayers’ paradigm but there is a time and a place. When this is over, we need to have a very serious discussion about where all this energy has come from to fuel all these ridiculously powerful and destructive storms

alchemist33

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The airport at Freeport

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1168540276949954560?s=21

Is that all from storm surge? It's hard to imagine anything other than huge loss of life if that's replicated all over the islands.

JCX BXC

alchemist33 wrote: »

Is that all from storm surge? It's hard to imagine anything other than huge loss of life if that's replicated all over the islands.

It would be, although the airport is very much on the sea, one can imagine significant damage across that area.

Gaoth Laidir

This thing is collapsing. Pressure now mid-940s. The 12Z HWRF had forecast around 921 hPa for this time. Current winds seem to have dropped to below 100 kts.

BumperD

alchemist33 wrote: »

Is that all from storm surge? It's hard to imagine anything other than huge loss of life if that's replicated all over the islands.

There was mention of 50+ on the weather channel 30 minutes ago but unconfirmed. It will take a while to get a handle on this.

I know we are getting first hand videos etc but the aftermath can nearly be as bad, no power/ ac, water, toilets etc etc cannot imagine people there waiting this out it must be going on for ever for them, they will suffer ptsd after this

Stop moaning ffs

Akrasia wrote: »

There are videos of mothers pleading with god for the storm to end to protect their children.

I’m an atheist who hates the ‘thoughts and prayers’ paradigm but there is a time and a place. When this is over, we need to have a very serious discussion about where all this energy has come from to fuel all these ridiculously powerful and destructive storms

I’m flummoxed by that whole post but that last part particularly

wu3b8jfm7q9o0i

What would help for this to stop, excuse my lack of knowledge.

dfx-

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This thing is collapsing. Pressure now mid-940s. The 12Z HWRF had forecast around 921 hPa for this time. Current winds seem to have dropped to below 100 kts.

Is it because it is stationary though..

MJohnston

Kace Old Gunsmith wrote: »

What would help for this to stop, excuse my lack of knowledge.

You mean hurricanes in general? Or this one specifically? Or just this thread?

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

There are videos of mothers pleading with god for the storm to end to protect their children.

I’m an atheist who hates the ‘thoughts and prayers’ paradigm but there is a time and a place. When this is over, we need to have a very serious discussion about where all this energy has come from to fuel all these ridiculously powerful and destructive storms

Here we go again.

It's peak hurricane season. Up to this point it's been running way below average. How do you explain that?

Dorian gets its fuel from the ocean, warmest at this time of the year. It formed in an area of negative sst anomaly (explain that) and moved into an area of positive anomaly. Overall on its track it's probably had an average sst path.



Dorian is the 5th Atlantic Cat 5 in the last 4 years. Worrying? Well, in the 1930s there was a similar pattern, with 5 occuring in 4 years and 6 in that decade. That hasn't been matched since.

https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-01-hurricane-dorian-atlantic-hurricane-category-five-history.html

FULL LIST OF ATLANTIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES

2019: Dorian
2018: Michael
2017: Irma, Maria
2016: Matthew
2007: Dean, Felix
2005: Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2004: Ivan
2003: Isabel
1998: Mitch
1992: Andrew
1989: Hugo
1988: Gilbert
1980: Allen
1979: David
1977: Anita
1971: Edith
1969: Camille
1967: Beulah
1961: Carla, Hattie
1955: Janet
1953: Carol
1938: Unnamed Hurricane
1935: Unnamed Hurricane
1933: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
1932: Two Unnamed Hurricanes
1928: Unnamed Hurricane
1924: Unnamed Hurricane

Meteorite58

Mod Note : stay on topic, be civil. This thread is about Hurricane Dorian only. Climate Change etc in appropriate threads.

zisdead

"Dorian is the 5th Atlantic Cat 5 in the last 4 years. Worrying? Well, in the 1930s there was a similar pattern, with 5 occuring in 4 years and 6 in that decade. That hasn't been matched since."

Hasn't been matched since??

The list of cat 5's you provided totally contradicts yourself.

Not only has it happened since, the noughties was the worst decade ever according to your data.

6!! cat 5's occurred in the 3 years 2003,2004,2005 and in that decade there were 8 cat 5 hurricanes. (actually all 8 of these cat 5 were in a 5 year period)

BumperD

US coast guard are med evacing out of Abaco tonight. For those wanting to track relief vessels in the area this map is helpful. Red ones are military and assisting with relief efforts I imagine a few will be in the area soon.

I must confess I’ve never seen an eye sit stationary in the same spot for so long maybe Harvey a few years ago but this is just desperate altogether

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=232697000

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1168664116095082496

Resign

Merkin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1168664116095082496

Resign

Surprised he didn’t try to evacuate Greenland while he was at it.

Excuse my ignorance, but given that Dorian now seems to be losing strength and speed, is it a possibility that it could become more powerful again once it crosses another band of water? Can one see distinct drops in speed etc only for it to suddenly pick up again?

Kermit.de.frog

Merkin wrote: »

Surprised he didn’t try to evacuate Greenland while he was at it.

Excuse my ignorance, but given that Dorian now seems to be losing strength and speed, is it a possibility that it could become more powerful again once it crosses another band of water? Can one see distinct drops in speed etc only for it to suddenly pick up again?

Any increase in strength likely to be small and only very temporary. Sea surface temps are cooler further north, the hurricane is also bringing up deeper cooler water to the surface now (known as up-welling) which disrupts warmer surface fuel, and the hurricane's lack of forward momentum also does not increase the wind speeds, it at most restricts them.

There are many other variables at work but those three in tandem are poison to a storm like this. It will die off gradually but still very powerful as it moves north.

Gaoth Laidir

zisdead wrote: »

"Dorian is the 5th Atlantic Cat 5 in the last 4 years. Worrying? Well, in the 1930s there was a similar pattern, with 5 occuring in 4 years and 6 in that decade. That hasn't been matched since."

Hasn't been matched since??

The list of cat 5's you provided totally contradicts yourself.

Not only has it happened since, the noughties was the worst decade ever according to your data.

6!! cat 5's occurred in the 3 years 2003,2004,2005 and in that decade there were 8 cat 5 hurricanes. (actually all 8 of these cat 5 were in a 5 year period)

Hands up, you're right. 2005 was a clear outlier. Taken as a whole, however, the 1930s was as active as any decade, including this one.

Gaoth Laidir

Dorian is Cat 3 now, 120 mph (104 kt).

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

Gaoth Laidir

The latest track has even the 50-knot winds staying offshore eastern Florida. The centre comes within only 8 NM of Cape Hatteras, NC, on Friday, by then most likely just a CAT 1.

EDIT: it's now well below those intensity forecast points, so it could have actually lost hurricane status by Friday.

Rikand

That's twice now that the islands around Florida saved it from a cat 5. Irma was all set to hit Florida as a cat 5 when it wobbled south into Cuba and lost all its power and now Dorian stalling over the Bahamas

LJ3103

Given the dorian is hovering in the same position for 12 plus hours, What's the likely hood of Dorian disrupting the rest of the Hurricane season in this region Is it possible we won't see any more serious storms in this location until the sea temps start to build again and the conditions become favourible again. Could it be too late in the season for that to happen

Or what have previous hurricanes caused, can a rapid relaod of the right conditions occur
C

Gaoth Laidir

LJ3103 wrote: »

Given the dorian is hovering in the same position for 12 plus hours, What's the likely hood of Dorian disrupting the rest of the Hurricane season in this region Is it possible we won't see any more serious storms in this location until the sea temps start to build again and the conditions become favourible again. Could it be too late in the season for that to happen

Or what have previous hurricanes caused, can a rapid relaod of the right conditions occur
C

It's upwelled a relatively small area of ocean, and with such shallow waters around the Bahamas the temperature will quickly come back up. The peak of the season is around the 10th of September. There are 3 other systems currently being investigated by none looks like developing into much yet. The one near Cape Verde would have a large area of cooler seas to cross before developing into anything.

LJ3103

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

[quote="

It's upwelled a relatively small area of ocean, and with such shallow waters around the Bahamas the temperature will quickly come back up. The peak of the season is around the 10th of September. There are 3 other systems currently being investigated by none looks like developing into much yet. The one near Cape Verde would have a large area of cooler seas to cross before developing into anything.

Thanks, I have a n Eastern Carribean crusie booked out of Port Canaveral on October 26th and the itinerary pretty much covers the direction that Dorian has taken so far, but thankfully none of my ports of call have been damaged so far.

We have stops in Grand Turk, San Juan and St. Thomas

Fingers crossed this will be the last big one of the season to worry about

sideswipe

Edit- Image removed

Some of the images coming out of the Bahamas look post apocalyptic- I love weather and it's extremes but hope I never have to live through anything like that, a lot of peoples lives and livelihoods it tatters.

Igotadose

sideswipe wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GalNaimi/status/1168775985292087296?s=20

Not sure if this is real or not! Some of the images coming out of the Bahamas look post apocalyptic- I look weather and it's extremes but hope I never have to live through anything like that, a lot of peoples lives and livelihoods it tatters.

It's 3d art per the thread.

Dorian's still far away. Further, having been to FL many times *maybe* this is some view from Fort Lauderdale, but it looks 'enhanced.'

sideswipe

Just copped that alright!

pad199207

Seen some footage on twitter of the abaco islands, my god they are no more. Flattened.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168704479451107328