Hurricane Dorian

kmart6

Fly through of the eye yesterday

https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1168365343103959040?s=20

https://twitter.com/jordan_sun20/status/1168315050974765056?s=20

Gaoth Laidir

The latest forecast track with wind radii shows the 64-knot (magenta) hurricane force winds staying offshore Florida, with the maroon 50-knot line just inland on Wednesday.

Note: The red "tropical storm force" line is actually only what we call gale force (34 knots), not our storm force.

Gaoth Laidir

Keep an eye on this station, Settlement Point, on the very far western tip.of Grand Bahama Island. Pressure dropping like a stone and winds now up to 42 gusting 56 knots. The eye should pass right over it in the next 24 hours.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

Villain

Still Cat 5 with maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.

The sat images are very impressive but this one of the landfall is wow!

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1168216185789267968?s=20

Gaoth Laidir

The last few frames of the latest satellite loop shows a hint of a northward shift, though it could just be a wobble.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

US2

Imagine having to deal with this a few times a year every year.

Kermit.de.frog

Think the turn north is imminent alright - ECM really consistent, storm moving west at just 1 mph now!

It's stalled to all intents and purposes.

Oneiric 3

Last 3 hours. Almost at a crawl:

silverharp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Think the turn north is imminent alright - ECM really consistent, storm moving west at just 1 mph now!

It's stalled to all intents and purposes.

is that bad as in its fuelling up?

pad199207

Looks a small shift SW

I’d imagine there’s going to be hardly anything left of Grand Bahama


upload image

sideswipe

The only thing worse than a Cat 5 hurricane is a Cat 5 moving at 1mph. This storm looks to be literally wiping Grand Bahama off the face of the earth!

josip

Would most of the buildings on Grand Bahama be of wooden clapboard construction?
When was the last time a Cat 5 moved this slowly?

Just looking at some public snapchats. Serious destruction with roofs blown off and cars turned upside down.

cherryghost

Pleas for help on ZNS Bahamas, very sad to listen. I'm surprised there's still communication in some areas at this stage

Been listening in for almost a day now on this. There's some communication in South Abaco at the moment, but rainfall is a deluge right now, worse than when the hurricane hit, hampering people making tracks outside for help/to help

MJohnston

I read Simpson of the Saffir-Simpson say that winds over 155mph can cause devastating structural damage to even hardended buildings in six seconds. Cannot imagine what those poor folks on the Bahamas must be going through considering they've had more than a day of those kinds of wind speeds.

sideswipe

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168394339330007041


Look at the path of the landfall! Areas getting blasted from winds from one direction and then the other after the eye passes over.

Kermit.de.frog

Visible jog northwest in the last couple of hours.

https://twitter.com/MyNews13Weather/status/1168473858514534400

Gaoth Laidir

Looks like it's completed that eyewall replacement cycle now. Primary eyewall looks a much larger diameter now.

BumperD

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Visible jog northwest in the last couple of hours.

https://twitter.com/MyNews13Weather/status/1168473858514534400

Might save the most populous part of Grand Bahama, Freeport, and greatly help recovery efforts, if that turn is on now

Villain

Could be just a wobble?

BorneTobyWilde

So it sat for 3 hours in one spot with 170 mph winds? That is unreal, that spot must be wiped out .?

pad199207

Looks like the ERC has finished. Doesn’t look like it has had too much impact on the storm.

star gazer

Category 4 just below 5: 155mph 250km/h. 922mb min central pressure, west 270 at 1mph, 2km/h. Stalling over Grand Bahama island is causing catastrophic damage from storm surge (incl. waves), wind and rainfall accumulation. One very serious problem is drinking water wells being impacted by saltwater.
Dorian's track is still offshore Florida but small changes could mean huge differences in the impacts locally so extreme caution is important. Even if the eye remains offshore, storm surge, flooding from rainfall and winds could be life threatening.

MJohnston

Can imagine this will geologically devastating to the Bahamas, as well as everything else. They've had a lot of money funnelled into coastal erosion programs, but this is bound to have accelerated that process massively.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Jackson_Dill/status/1168559188148150275

pad199207

Look like parts of grand Bahama to stay in Dorians inner core for another 24 hours!

Gaoth Laidir

For me it's definitely shifted NNW this afternoon, albeit only slightly. Unfortunately this means that more of the island is now getting the brunt of the southern eyewall.

Mission 33 is flying through the eye right now. It's picked up max SFMR surface winds of "only" 97 knots in the NW eyewall, a massive drop. Central pressure 939 hPa.

Oneiric 3

This animation for the last 6 or 7 hrs or so makes you appreciated just how slow moving and thus, catastrophic 'Dorian' is on the Grand Bahama island:



Big convection off the coast of the Carolinas may suggest that upper pressure values may be falling a little in that region, which is what is needed to ensure that Dorian steers away from Florida, but at the moment, surface pressure reports in that general area look stable up to this point. Hard to know what way this will go.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Unfortunately this means that more of the island is now getting the brunt of the southern eyewall.
DORIAN_timeseries.png[/IMG]

It's kudos to the ECMWF for pretty much nailing this scenario I think over the last couple of days, though admittedly, I didn't really follow any other model regarding this so don't know how they performed in comparison.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

This animation for the last 6 or 7 hrs or so makes you appreciated just how slow moving and thus, catastrophic 'Dorian' is on the Grand Bahama island:



Big convection off the coast of the Carolinas may suggest that upper pressure values may be falling a little in that region, which is what is needed to ensure that Dorian steers away from Florida, but at the moment, surface pressure reports in that general area look stable up to this point. Hard to know what way this will go.

A clear raggedness has appeared in the eye, so the island seems to be fighting back.