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Boom bust economy?

  • 31-08-2019 8:16am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭


    Around where I live in the west of Ireland things are flying, no doubt, loads of work, people can hardly find a house to rent, place is doing great. Spoke to someone in Dublin last night who said he can’t even get trainees for quite prestigious, very well paid roles, said it’s the same in many sectors, lot of labour shortage.
    Think it’s fair to say we are right back to a Celtic Tiger style boom, this one seems to have crept up, four years ago it was totally different.
    Of course it’s great we have recovered, but why are things so hit and miss? Why are we always the fastest growing or the worst in Europe? A period of stability would probably be very good for us in the next five years, with growth, but a little less dramatic.


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭Ferajacka


    Brexit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭wally1990


    Around where I live in the west of Ireland things are flying, no doubt, loads of work, people can hardly find a house to rent, place is doing great. Spoke to someone in Dublin last night who said he can’t even get trainees for quite prestigious, very well paid roles, said it’s the same in many sectors, lot of labour shortage.
    Think it’s fair to say we are right back to a Celtic Tiger style boom, this one seems to have crept up, four years ago it was totally different.
    Of course it’s great we have recovered, but why are things so hit and miss? Why are we always the fastest growing or the worst in Europe? A period of stability would probably be very good for us in the next five years, with growth, but a little less dramatic.

    Just an FYI, if your somewhat interested in economics or these related convos,

    David mcwilliams has a great podcast and talks about economics in layman's terms

    Its a great listen, give it a go


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,767 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    We’re a small open economy that’s totally exposed to external shocks, brexit will be the next big one. Things go pear shaped here fast but recover reasonably quickly. I work in construction so have seen a few booms and busts at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Involved in that side of things too, no doubt our economy largely tracks the global one, but it often gets more extreme. I think part of it is the governments who always want expansionary policies, good times or bad. Wonder is there a quirk to us too, for some reason are the Irish a bit more excitable than other countries, do we barren down the hatches very quick if we smell trouble and spend like drunken sailors at other times. Would have spent many years in the UK and there is definitely more of an impulse to spend among many Irish people, more of a we-won’t-live-forever attitude. Not criticizing that at all btw, it’s a good approach to things.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,535 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    We are a have a very open economy full of international companies, but we have a very parochial system of electing politicians and a government (Civil Servants) that is highly centralised system that is completely inflexible...it's why we can't achieve meaningful regional growth in my opinion making all of us depend on Dublin....it is not healthy.

    If ever the global economy goes tit's up, we are in serious trouble.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,114 ✭✭✭PhilOssophy


    Paddy loves boom and bust, politicians would rather give the pensioners and dole wasters a fiver a week than pay down some of our national debt or save money for times when our economy needs a cash boost.
    But Paddy wouldn't have it any other way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,706 ✭✭✭Montage of Feck


    A rising tide lifts all boats and all that, except Ireland is more like the rubber dingy caught in the bow wave of a tanker.

    🙈🙉🙊



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    The recession started months ago


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    wally1990 wrote: »
    Just an FYI, if your somewhat interested in economics or these related convos,

    David mcwilliams has a great podcast and talks about economics in layman's terms

    Its a great listen, give it a go

    Loving the podcast. Very glad someone suggested it. There was an interesting point when he chatted about the factors that lead to the last recession and how they’re being replicated now. And the other just, John, said “so we haven’t learned our lesson from the last recession”. Who on earth said we are trying to learn a lesson?

    The op will tell you they made their money in the last period of great growth, so they’re sorted. And they’re proposing the other people should t try to make their fortune now during a period of growth.

    OP, why didn’t you take that approach of staying steady and not growing your business before you made your money in the last boom or the boom before that? You didn’t have to grow your business, so why did you?

    This boils down to “ now I’ve made my money, I think other people should stop trying to make their money”

    Unthinking stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Around where I live in the west of Ireland things are flying, no doubt, loads of work, people can hardly find a house to rent, place is doing great. Spoke to someone in Dublin last night who said he can’t even get trainees for quite prestigious, very well paid roles, said it’s the same in many sectors, lot of labour shortage.
    Think it’s fair to say we are right back to a Celtic Tiger style boom, this one seems to have crept up, four years ago it was totally different.
    Of course it’s great we have recovered, but why are things so hit and miss? Why are we always the fastest growing or the worst in Europe? A period of stability would probably be very good for us in the next five years, with growth, but a little less dramatic.

    We are an extremely open economy, if other major economies hit the rocks, it effects us in a big way, we also have a tiny domestic consumer market so cannot trade our way out of rough periods through our internal market

    Slightly off topic but not Unrelated, Ireland is effectively a colony of the usa economically, Europe never really left the recession of 2008 to 2012, it's been teetering on recession ever since, the usa on the other hand has seen its longest ever period of expansion.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 503 ✭✭✭Rufeo


    Around where I live in the west of Ireland things are flying, no doubt, loads of work, people can hardly find a house to rent, place is doing great. Spoke to someone in Dublin last night who said he can’t even get trainees for quite prestigious, very well paid roles, said it’s the same in many sectors, lot of labour shortage.
    Think it’s fair to say we are right back to a Celtic Tiger style boom, this one seems to have crept up, four years ago it was totally different.
    Of course it’s great we have recovered, but why are things so hit and miss? Why are we always the fastest growing or the worst in Europe? A period of stability would probably be very good for us in the next five years, with growth, but a little less dramatic.

    It's cos of greed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Loving the podcast. Very glad someone suggested it. There was an interesting point when he chatted about the factors that lead to the last recession and how they’re being replicated now. And the other just, John, said “so we haven’t learned our lesson from the last recession”. Who on earth said we are trying to learn a lesson?

    The op will tell you they made their money in the last period of great growth, so they’re sorted. And they’re proposing the other people should t try to make their fortune now during a period of growth.

    OP, why didn’t you take that approach of staying steady and not growing your business before you made your money in the last boom or the boom before that? You didn’t have to grow your business, so why did you?

    This boils down to “ now I’ve made my money, I think other people should stop trying to make their money”

    Unthinking stuff.

    Of course I’d wish anyone going into business now good luck. The fact is in my experience dramatic economic swings makes long term success harder. It’s not all about business people either, workers hired for jobs created under boom time conditions see their jobs evaporate later.
    Most of the growth in my own business actually was quite gradual, apart from a burst in my 20s when I got a few breaks. Even as that was happening I knew it would soon be time to get out of it, but for various reasons very few people can do that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Of course I’d wish anyone going into business now good luck. The fact is in my experience dramatic economic swings makes long term success harder. It’s not all about business people either, workers hired for jobs created under boom time conditions see their jobs evaporate later.
    Most of the growth in my own business actually was quite gradual, apart from a burst in my 20s when I got a few breaks. Even as that was happening I knew it would soon be time to get out of it, but for various reasons very few people can do that.

    But why did you grow your business at all? That’s the question you’re asking everyone else but you could answer it yourself. Why didn’t you find a level of annual business where you could live and stop taking on additional business beyond that level?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    The recession started months ago

    Do you have anything to back that up? :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 23,231 Mod ✭✭✭✭godtabh


    Around where I live in the west of Ireland things are flying, no doubt, loads of work, people can hardly find a house to rent, place is doing great. Spoke to someone in Dublin last night who said he can’t even get trainees for quite prestigious, very well paid roles, said it’s the same in many sectors, lot of labour shortage.
    Think it’s fair to say we are right back to a Celtic Tiger style boom, this one seems to have crept up, four years ago it was totally different.
    Of course it’s great we have recovered, but why are things so hit and miss? Why are we always the fastest growing or the worst in Europe? A period of stability would probably be very good for us in the next five years, with growth, but a little less dramatic.

    Explains it well



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    But why did you grow your business at all? That’s the question you’re asking everyone else but you could answer it yourself. Why didn’t you find a level of annual business where you could live and stop taking on additional business beyond that level?

    I’m not asking anyone why they want to grow any business! People have different reasons for that.

    Good luck to anyone trying is what I’d say. I would advise them not to leave themselves exposed to much risk, something that it is hard with a boom/bust situation.

    Not all about business people though, what we have now is a boom and a young fella in his twenties would have to borrow a lot for a house. Do that at 25 while single in good times is okay, but it’s a problem if you end up with three kids at 35 and you’re dealing with the impact of a bust. It happened a lot of people here a few years ago, similar in the UK back in the 1980s. Unfortunately there’s a fair chance it’ll happen again here in the 2020s.

    Not trying to be pessimistic, would love to see more of a demand from the public for sustainable growth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭JohnnyFlash


    wally1990 wrote: »
    Just an FYI, if your somewhat interested in economics or these related convos,

    David mcwilliams has a great podcast and talks about economics in layman's terms

    Its a great listen, give it a go

    McWilliams is to economics what Jedward are to popular music.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,592 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    McWilliams is to economics what Jedward are to popular music.

    Jedward were never right once. McWilliams was and lives off it. Was wrong a lot more often!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,636 ✭✭✭dotsman


    It's because we haven't done anything to rectify the biggest problem in our economy - property.

    In the late 80's early 90's Ireland began to modernise. We all know about the social and economic changes. But there was a third change. As we moved from an agricultural economy to a modern economy and as we moved from net emigration to net immigration, we forgot to do the one big glaring task - plan our cities to cope with these changes. As a result, since the 90's there has been a massive shortage of suitable properties (for both homes and offices). This has resulted in constant critical problems in our property market causing massive swings over the last 30 years.

    Coupled with 30 years of government budget's and planning focused on short term "vote-buying" rather than long-term strategic planning, we are completely at the mercy of extreme market sentiment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,463 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    One thread on here

    '' I applied for 50 jobs and can't get one''

    Next thread on here

    '' 1000's of jobs and we can't even fill the roles'''


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    dotsman wrote: »
    It's because we haven't done anything to rectify the biggest problem in our economy - property.

    In the late 80's early 90's Ireland began to modernise. We all know about the social and economic changes. But there was a third change. As we moved from an agricultural economy to a modern economy and as we moved to net emigration to net immigration, we forgot to do the one big glaring task - plan our cities to cope with these changes. As a result, since the 90's there has been a massive shortage of suitable properties (for both homes and offices). This has resulted in constant critical problems in our property market causing massive swings over the last 30 years.

    Coupled with 30 years of government budget's and planning focused on short term "vote-buying" rather than long-term strategic planning, we are completely at the mercy of extreme market sentiment.

    There is a good bit of truth in this in my opinion. I don’t think Dublin has been planned right at all.
    But it’s not just Dublin, the traffic in Galway is a huge problem, plus the villages within 30-40 miles are growing in population, but in many cases with very little strategy.

    It’s a related problem to the boom bust stuff I think, in good times when recovery is happening the construction industry gets indulged too much and people making objections or who have concerns about anything get dismissed. Then people end up wondering why we are car dependent and have large populations in areas with poorly planned facilities.

    If we had a history of less intense booms and less deep recessions our officials would look at things a little differently.

    This is before you even take into account corrrupt planners/councilors and ignorant builders happy to grease their palms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I’m not asking anyone why they want to grow any business! People have different reasons for that.

    Good luck to anyone trying is what I’d say. I would advise them not to leave themselves exposed to much risk, something that it is hard with a boom/bust situation.

    Not all about business people though, what we have now is a boom and a young fella in his twenties would have to borrow a lot for a house. Do that at 25 while single in good times is okay, but it’s a problem if you end up with three kids at 35 and you’re dealing with the impact of a bust. It happened a lot of people here a few years ago, similar in the UK back in the 1980s. Unfortunately there’s a fair chance it’ll happen again here in the 2020s.

    Not trying to be pessimistic, would love to see more of a demand from the public for sustainable growth.

    You don’t honestly know much about why booms and busts happen, do you?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Ipso


    Boom and bust, as in constant? Isn’t it more like a giant bust from the countries inception up until the mid nineties boom and then bust?


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    godtabh wrote: »
    The Stability and Growth Pact has gone a long way in preventing pro-cyclical economic policy, and although it may have been the proverbial sledge-hammer cracking a nut, is bound to insulate us from the next economic shock to a large degree. As will the reports of the Fiscal Advisory Council, which are fairly well-heeded, and the advice of the Central Bank.

    Please don't take economics instruction from You Tube. It's simplistic and borderline conspiracy-theorist.
    McWilliams is to economics what Jedward are to popular music.
    One positive outcome of the successful implementation of the Financial Aid Programme for Ireland has been the complete rubbishing of the (attention seeking?) proclamations of so-called celebrity economists like Bryan Lucey, Constantin Gurdgiev, Morgan Kelly and, above all, David McWilliams. They espoused economic policies that were completely at-odds with those proposed by professional Irish and European economists, and even published books which have now been appropriately discredited.

    Other recessions will come, but we must never return to the fad of annointing high priest celebrity economists.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,039 ✭✭✭✭EmmetSpiceland


    One positive outcome of the successful implementation of the Financial Aid Programme for Ireland has been the complete rubbishing of the (attention seeking?) proclamations of so-called celebrity economists like Bryan Lucey, Constantin Gurdgiev, Morgan Kelly and, above all, David McWilliams

    Don’t worry, they’ll be back. It’s hard to shift books or get the air time when things are going well.

    They’ll be back on the air shilling books on “what went wrong” when things, inevitably, goes bad.

    “It is not blood that makes you Irish but a willingness to be part of the Irish nation” - Thomas Davis



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭JohnnyFlash


    I’d ignore the advice and mutterings of most economists to be honest. The most dismal of sciences.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Don’t worry, they’ll be back. It’s hard to shift books or get the air time when things are going well.

    They’ll be back on the air shilling books on “what went wrong” when things, inevitably, goes bad.

    I think that’s harsh on McWilliams. He’s not saying the recession is here. He is saying that some of the economic indications are looking like the current boom is running out of steam.

    But he hasn’t tried to predict a time and date of the next recession. I think it’s pretty important to try to understand why the economy works the way it does or why it went well or poorly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    We depend on exports to other countrys,
    companys are finding it hard to recruit new workers.
    Workers need to live some where ,
    our housing policy is mediocre at best.
    There may be plenty jobs in dublin but its very hard to find good quality rental accomodation.
    Theres a cycle of boom and recession every 10- 15 years .
    The financial crisis was caused by lack of regulation in the banking industry and we saw the slowdown in 2008.
    The next crisis may be caused by trade wars ,and brexit.
    All the government can do is to have good regulation in banking and
    finance .
    they should also start to pay off the 200 billion debt we owe.
    While interest rates are very low.
    Irish governments seem to think maybe 2-3 years ahead.
    We need to think 10 years ahead .
    We need to get on with the national broadband plan.
    this will help small firms and encourage growth in rural area,s.
    Instead of just having most investments focused on dublin .

    To a large extent we are at the mercy of international trends
    in business and finance .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Paddy loves boom and bust, politicians would rather give the pensioners and dole wasters a fiver a week than pay down some of our national debt or save money for times when our economy needs a cash boost.
    But Paddy wouldn't have it any other way.

    I’d ban everybody who lazily stereotypes Irish people with the term paddy. Moronic crap.

    Nobody likes boom and bust, not the bust anyway and often not the boom. I’d prefer to live in an economy growing at 1-2% a year without shocks than 4% a year with occasional shocks.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    The Stability and Growth Pact has gone a long way in preventing pro-cyclical economic policy, and although it may have been the proverbial sledge-hammer cracking a nut, is bound to insulate us from the next economic shock to a large degree. As will the reports of the Fiscal Advisory Council, which are fairly well-heeded, and the advice of the Central Bank.

    Please don't take economics instruction from You Tube. It's simplistic and borderline conspiracy-theorist.


    One positive outcome of the successful implementation of the Financial Aid Programme for Ireland has been the complete rubbishing of the (attention seeking?) proclamations of so-called celebrity economists like Bryan Lucey, Constantin Gurdgiev, Morgan Kelly and, above all, David McWilliams. They espoused economic policies that were completely at-odds with those proposed by professional Irish and European economists, and even published books which have now been appropriately discredited.

    Other recessions will come, but we must never return to the fad of annointing high priest celebrity economists.

    I find little fault in McWilliams. He was right about the reasons for the last bust and correct in his understanding of the problem with housing now, also correct that this boom is less of a bubble and we can survive Brexit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    I’d ignore the advice and mutterings of most economists to be honest. The most dismal of sciences.

    It’s not really a science like all of the social sciences.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,202 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    We need to work on protecting our economy from the world economy a bit. Also the uk.

    Brexit is going to destroy our economy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    One thread on here

    '' I applied for 50 jobs and can't get one''

    Next thread on here

    '' 1000's of jobs and we can't even fill the roles'''

    That first guy is in Donegal though. The recession hasn’t really left parts of Ireland - the non urban non tourist parts have been hit badly and won’t recover.
    We need to work on protecting our economy from the world economy a bit. Also the uk.

    Brexit is going to destroy our economy.

    No it won’t. We really have decoupled from the U.K. quite effectively over the last 30/40 years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    I find little fault in McWilliams. He was right about the reasons for the last bust and correct in his understanding of the problem with housing now, also correct that this boom is less of a bubble and we can survive Brexit.

    He’s another social justice warrior earning 200k a year in his leafy suburb.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    lola85 wrote: »
    He’s another social justice warrior earning 200k a year in his leafy suburb.

    He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.

    If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

    Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

    The real world wound eat him alive.

    Link to him warning us about the recession?


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I find little fault in McWilliams. He was right about the reasons for the last bust and correct in his understanding of the problem with housing now, also correct that this boom is less of a bubble and we can survive Brexit.
    From the top of my head, he suggested (after having pumped billions into the Irish Banks) that we sell them to the Chinese for 1 cent.

    I really don't want to get into another debate on that shower. Very many of the publicity seeking ones are charlatans. There are exceptions, Karl Whelan being one.

    I'm really not even certain that McWilliams or Lucey are entitled to call themselves economists at all. Even the notion that Morgan Kelly - who is a real economist - prophesized the last bust is entirely invented. He predicted a soft landing, just like the Central Bank.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,202 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    lola85 wrote: »
    If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

    Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

    The real world wound eat him alive.

    Link to him warning us about the recession?

    I warned my teachers in school about the recession. My Dad warned every one.

    My teachers told me to shut up and stop being a lippy kid.

    No one listened to my Dad.

    Recession is the norm he said ..growth is unusual.

    The idea is you try and get different parts of your economy growing at different times. Like growing crops. Something is ready to fruit when something else is in decline.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    I warned my teachers in school about the recession. My Dad warned every one.

    My teachers told me to shut up and stop being a lippy kid.

    No one listened to my Dad.

    Recession is the norm he said ..growth is unusual.

    The idea is you try and get different parts of your economy growing at different times. Like growing crops. Something is ready to fruit when something else is in decline.

    Seems you need to get better people to listen to you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    lola85 wrote: »
    If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

    Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

    The real world wound eat him alive.

    Link to him warning us about the recession?

    1) he writes columns, that’s not lecturing plebs. You don’t have to read them.
    2) the real world is paying him €200k a year, not eating him alive.
    3) he is primarily famous for his comments on the recession.

    Still not clear what the social justice angle is.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    From the top of my head, he suggested (after having pumped billions into the Irish Banks) that we sell them to the Chinese for 1 cent.

    You are really going to have to source that. I can’t find it.
    I really don't want to get into another debate on that shower. Very many of the publicity seeking ones are charlatans. There are exceptions, Karl Whelan being one.

    Maybe but on the specific case with McWilliams I’m not finding much problems with what he has written although I haven’t read it all.

    I'm really not even certain that McWilliams or Lucey are entitled to call themselves economists at all. Even the notion that Morgan Kelly - who is a real economist - prophesized the last bust is entirely invented. He predicted a soft landing, just like the Central Bank.

    Kelly certainly predicted disaster for the economy after it happened, i was at that lecture. I’m pretty sure that McWilliams doesn’t call himself, or have to call himself, an economist to write about economics or the economy as a journalist.

    Nevertheless he was correct about the bust. Here’s an article from 2008, the date of the collapse of Lehman but before the bust proper when McWilliams predicts that financial institutions in Ireland will collapse. I’m sure official Ireland was in soft landing mode at time, official economists as well.

    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/crisis-hit-banks-are-acting-out-a-shameful-piece-of-theatre/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,202 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    lola85 wrote: »
    Seems you need to get better people to listen to you.
    Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

    It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

    It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.

    I disagree about the economy now. In fact unlike the last boom, which was driven primarily by easy credit and property at the end, growth now is more broadly based.

    Your father was exactly right about the garden analogy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,007 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    wally1990 wrote: »
    Just an FYI, if your somewhat interested in economics or these related convos,

    David mcwilliams has a great podcast and talks about economics in layman's terms

    Its a great listen, give it a go

    His podcast is Brilliant. I really look forward to it every Tuesday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭lola85


    Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

    It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.

    Captain obvious.

    Do you want a medal?


  • Moderators, Music Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 25,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Boom_Bap


    I do like a fine bust, but not paying for it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    This boom is driven by investment by multinational,s ,tourism,
    a booming economy in europe and low interest rates .
    It,s real in that its not based on easy credit, or crazy lending by bank,s ,
    or rising house price,s ,or people borrowing money to buy property .
    There were a few people who predicted a bust in 2007,
    but they were ignored ,
    until suddenly house,s price,s fell, some people were unable to pay their loan,,s and house,s were worth less than the mortgages that were used to buy them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,026 ✭✭✭grindle


    lola85 wrote: »
    Link to him warning us about the recession?

    Whatever about whether or not he speaks shíte, he was going on about the likelihood we were in the midst of a Japanese-style property bubble on his midday TV3 show back when I was doing my leaving, that was around 1999-2001?

    It was crazy price growth for an asset everybody has to make use of. Pullbacks happen. He's not a genius for spotting it but what fuelled his rise was a constant stream of people arguing against him saying it would never stop going up, like they were entitled to 5-20% increases in house price every year while wages flagged far behind and credit was abused.
    Despite prices rising by 23 per cent and no sign of any imminent slowdown, 1998 was filled with dire predictions of bubbles bursting and property crashes, with the ESRI calling for a slowdown in house prices.

    Nobody knew exactly when it would top out, only that it had to at some point - he could've been a talking head for two decades and saying "Ah lads, this is a bit wreckless now" and eventually he'd be right. Doesn't take away from the common sense that made him right in the first place. If massive growth seems unsustainable and a country has to rely on the thing causing the massive growth, it probably is unsustainable and the country should expect a pinch for being cheeky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,221 ✭✭✭Greentopia


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    We’re a small open economy that’s totally exposed to external shocks, brexit will be the next big one. Things go pear shaped here fast but recover reasonably quickly. I work in construction so have seen a few booms and busts at this stage.

    I always hear the "it's a small open economy" reason as if that should explain why we can't keep things in a more steady state economically.

    Denmark is a small economy with a similar population size and even smaller land mass.
    Iceland (apart from the crash years) and with a population of only around 360,000 has managed to bounce back and remain on an even keel since then with very low unemployment. They both have very diverse economies, some of the lowest rates of income inequality in the world and consistency ranked in the top 5 happiest nations on earth and highest on the UN Human Development Index.

    Norway also similar population and rankings. Yes they have oil, but it still only accounts for less than 4% of GDP and even if they never discovered it the country would still, according to economists and economic historians there still be "on par with Sweden and Denmark." https://sciencenorway.no/economy-forskningno-norway/what-would-norway-be-like-without-oil-money/1442935

    We should be asking ourselves why they can manage to largely avoid boom and bust and we can't and what can we learn from them.

    I think the problem in this country is we seem happy to put all our resources into foreign investment instead of developing enough indigenous industries leaving ourselves more open to outside shocks, don't invest in our people enough -affordable access to the best education for everyone, not just those who can afford it, have too much income inequality driven by the wrong government policies, allow neoliberal "market forces" to dictate everything causing lack of affordability and choice in the housing sector in particular, and have a tax system that is too narrow and inadequate to cater for the investment needed in radically improving public services.

    We also have politicians who have little imagination and just follow the Anglo-Saxon economic model in the UK particularly instead of drawing from and copying aspects of the best examples from other similar size economies in Europe that manage to do some things better than us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.

    Plus what’s wrong with earning 200k a year and still acknowledging that public money could be well spend investing in affordable housing for people who aren’t on 200k a year?


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