Autumn 2019 - General Discussion

Reckless Abandonment

Stunning sunrise over Dublin this morning.

Graces7

Artane2002 wrote: »

October has been pretty bad up until the Monday (I think) a week or two ago with the heavy rainfall in the morning. Since then it hasn't been bad so I guess I'll call it an OK month considering it's autumn and we were overdue an October worse than what we actually got.

THis week is bad out here. There have been a couple of passable mornings when I could work in the garden pleasurably but always strong chill winds. Finding myself wearing the ashes I am taking out...I take it day by day.

Last night and now are very dark and very cold and VERY LOUD.

west mayo offshore

Graces7

Just braved the weather to put post out ( faith!) and bring turf in. Fierce out there; rare to hear the wind actually banshee howling close to you. Driving rain... icy cold.

Had a mail from An Post re the parcel I ordered; hot water bottle and electric heater therein! Still on the mainland. Ah well...This will happen all winter long now.

west mayo offshore

leahyl

The word "cold" featuring quite a lot in MT's forecast this morning - even after this weekend

SleetAndSnow

Stopped posting for a while because it was the same weather for a while in cork city, wet.

Last two mornings though have been cold and last two days dry, today was a bit warmer in the morning though and its now raining again.

Graces7

Easing out here at last. Even the sun emerging.. still windy but dry.

It has been a long, hard bitter and sodden day...

West mayo offshore

Meteorite58

Had some nice mild weather in Germany the last few days, foggy mornings in the valleys and getting up to the high teens at times.

Mosel region :





Back to the rain earlier but has cleared up nicely now to blue skies and sunshine here in Kerry.

3.0mm

12.8C

Graces7

Total utter silence out here now. The gale has blown itself out; rain has paused, and a chill, still night. Love the night hours.... a deep . deep solitary peace nestles and soothes. Gone is the tumult. The ocean calmed. Just the harbour and buoy lights flashing their advice and orientation lights. An absence of sound and disturbance. Peace in sky and ocean, spreading over land.

west mayo offshore

SleetAndSnow

Cold and foggy morning today in cork city

Graces7

Until just a few minutes ago when rain started, it has been a sheerly lovely day. Bright sun warming the dwelling through the glass, blue skies. Bitter cold wind out there but a pleasure else. Still bright. Been picking flowers etc.

West Mayo offshore

Artane2002

Mixed rain and hail shower in Dublin 5. I haven't seen hail in a long time.

Graces7

Wildly wet and bitterly cold out here and I know we are going to get off lightly in this episode compared with the rest of the country.

It started as I was getting ready to go for a short walk. Not any more... A day to hunker down and get warm.

west mayo offshore

hatrickpatrick

Another feckin' wet Halloween on the cards unless pretty much all the models shift their FI projections. ECM somewhat less pessimistic, but UKMO and GFS on board for wet LP throughout the day. After last year's washout, this just isn't right dammit! :mad:

Artane2002

It's wet and 6c but it feels milder. 6c is impressive for this time of year though.

Graces7

A clear and silent dawning and utterly still. A lazy, slender moon lying on its back gazing up at the heavens.. strangely shaped dark clouds in a pale sky and a visible shower on the horizon dropping blackly ..

Above all, a deep stark coldness. Chill and bitter.

west mayo offshore

and later, a loud attack of hailshowers ( as we called them up in Scotland, "hailiboys" that turned the ground white for a while..

Oneiric 3

With the mean average national maxima coming in at just 7.5c yesterday, it proved to be 2nd coldest October day in at least 45 years, and is second only to the 7.4c that was recorded on October 27th just last year.

Oneiric 3

Artane2002 wrote: »

It's wet and 6c but it feels milder. 6c is impressive for this time of year though.

I was out for much of the day yesterday, and despite the 7c temp, it didn't feel all the cold, despite heavy cloud and damp air. I think this was down to the sheer lack of any sort of breeze. It was unnervingly calm to be honest.

Gonzo

South-East England probably one of the warmest places in Europe last night, with temperatures holding up around 16 or 17C throughout the night. The quick transition from 16C to 6C is not more than 30 or 40 miles. The very cool air is slowly making it's way further south.

Yesterday was certainly very chilly for us and was a reminder just how inaccurate the GFS is at forecasting snow, I don't think there was wintry falls on the highest peaks yesterday, just cold rain everywhere. The next few days look chilly and mostly dry, but there is a warming trend from the 30th of October. Temperatures look like they may recover or even go slightly above normal from 1st of November and that first week of November is also looking very unsettled with plenty of rain. The very cool first two weeks of November looks like it's changed and we could be in store for a mild and Atlantic/zonal pattern.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With the mean average national maxima coming in at just 7.5c yesterday, it proved to be 2nd coldest October day in at least 45 years, and is second only to the 7.4c that was recorded on October 27th just last year.

Where does 28th/29th October 2008 stand in this series?

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

South-East England probably one of the warmest places in Europe last night, with temperatures holding up around 16 or 17C throughout the night. The quick transition from 16C to 6C is not more than 30 or 40 miles. The very cool air is slowly making it's way further south.

Yesterday was certainly very chilly for us and was a reminder just how inaccurate the GFS is at forecasting snow, I don't think there was wintry falls on the highest peaks yesterday, just cold rain everywhere. The next few days look chilly and mostly dry, but there is a warming trend from the 30th of October. Temperatures look like they may recover or even go slightly above normal from 1st of November and that first week of November is also looking very unsettled with plenty of rain. The very cool first two weeks of November looks like it's changed and we could be in store for a mild and Atlantic/zonal pattern.

GFS is on crack right now pulling a Greenland High out of nowhere whilst low pressure remaining over Ireland throughout, real washout if it were to verify.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

Where does 28th/29th October 2008 stand in this series?

These are the mean national daily maxima I have for the period between the 25th and 31st of October, 2008:

25th:12.8
26th 9.9
27th:7.9
28th:9.1
29th:8.6
30th:9.5
31st:9.0

An impressively cool period for the time of year, with the coldest day being on the 27th. Reanalysis charts suggest it was bright, sunny, breezy period with some showers (not unlike today) though I personally cannot remember this period at all to be honest.

Gaoth Laidir

I've always harped on about how bad the GFS is, much to the irritation of many on here. There's been no evidence yet of any improvements with the latest upgrade, too, this week being another prime example.

But people also need to remember how to read those GFS charts showing the hatched areas. They in no way suggest that snow is likely, only that these are areas that should be analysed further to see any snow potential. Again, this is where forecast soundings come in, but then if you're looking at a GFS sounding then you're probably not getting the best picture. Still, even the GFS soundings were showing snow lines above 600 m for yesterday.

From meteociel's own FAQs:

https://www.meteociel.fr/FAQ-modeles.php

We will add that this version of GFS presents a mesh of 50km .... On the scale of a department that represents a lot and the slightest shift may lead to an error in your forecast.
Similarly, the hatching in winter on the map, are practical because they target the areas to be analyzed to prevent the risk of snow. But in any case we can not be satisfied with a literal reading of the model, it will then analyze the vertical profile of the air mass to see if indeed precipitation can occur in the form of snow.

EDIT: Their translation to English is as bad as the GFS. Better reading the French version on that link.

Donegal Storm

Squally hail showers in Letterkenny this afternoon, had to break out the ice scraper for the first time yesterday as well, definitely a big change noticeable over the past week

Kermit.de.frog

Chilliest night so far for most tonight with a widespread ground frost.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I was out for much of the day yesterday, and despite the 7c temp, it didn't feel all the cold, despite heavy cloud and damp air. I think this was down to the sheer lack of any sort of breeze. It was unnervingly calm to be honest.

Yes feeling much colder today with the breeze. Had a squally shower of sleet here in Roscommon an hour ago.

nacho libre

With the forecasted jestream profile it looks like any settled weather will be short lived. Also it looks like it will trend milder later on.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

With the forecasted jestream profile it looks like any settled weather will be short lived. Also it looks like it will trend milder later on.

hopefully this isn't our only cool/cold spell between now and March! The long term models do look dire for anyone wishing for cold and snow this winter.

bazlers

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully this isn't our only cool/cold spell between now and March! The long term models do look dire for anyone wishing for cold and snow this winter.

That might not be a bad thing. They looked very promising last winter for cold!

Lucreto

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully this isn't our only cool/cold spell between now and March! The long term models do look dire for anyone wishing for cold and snow this winter.

Rather be put out of my misery early than the carrot dangling just out of reach that was last year.

pauldry

I think it will be a cold Winter with some snow. But this efening horrible in Northwest. Met Eireann says well scattered showers. Its raining every 5 minutes