Selling prices down nation wide up to 12.5%

handlemaster

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/fear-factor-now-hitting-house-prices-nationwide-38477361.html


The achieved prices are down nation wide.Is this a dip or somthing more prolonged. If I were a seller I would be worried. Time perhaps will see further price drops

dory

I've noticed over the past while there are more price drops on property websites than increases. house prices were dropped by 4% in Cork in the last 3 months.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

12.5% seems a lot. There’s a fall though.

Edit: that’s in D4

I am in the market for a house, I don't fear significant price rises so I'm holding off till I see the house I want. If others are hold off too, for whatever reason i'm sure that will have an effect on the market.

Too many people panicked and bought in 2006, 2007 etc even when they felt prices were overvalued. I don't think people are going to let that happen this time round.

Dav010

I suspect a large part of this is due to events in the UK. A lot of businesses who import or export to UK are concerned about the implications of Brexit, and though this might not be effecting wages at the moment, it is effecting confidence. If you think your job might be at risk or wages will stagnate for a few years, then obviously you would be more inclined to wait and see. There is also the possibility that prices went so high over the past few years, that people simply can’t afford/get finance for houses, especially in Dublin and that this is the market correcting itself, the demand for housing is there, it’s just too expensive so prices are dropping.

While many will be happy about the lower prices, it may also be an indication that fewer buyers are buying for the BTL market, this of course means less rentals. And lastly, due to expense associated with building houses here, falling prices mean developers will halt new builds and wait to see what happens, meaning more contraction in supply.

Dolbhad

I’ve viewed some houses recently in Cork for Cork that had price drops - one alone was up for €350k last year. Didn’t sell as it was very overpriced and needed a lot of work. Put back on market at this year at €300k.

New builds still going up in price as new phases gets released and uncertainty of the HTB is helping as those who are dependent on it for the deposit seem to be buying this year in case it’s not extended.

Finding still when houses go on the market they are still overpriced in Cork but it seems, as others have said before, if it’s a good location and turn key, it will sell. Those with work are going more prices adjustments and taking longer to move.

smelly sock

465000 for a 4 bed semi d in Maynooth isnt sustainable. It cant be. My advice to first time buyers is buy second hand. Something you like in good condition. Dont fall in to the trap of buying bright , shiney and new paying 200000 more.

Dav010

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I am in the market for a house, I don't fear significant price rises so I'm holding off till I see the house I want. If others are hold off too, for whatever reason i'm sure that will have an effect on the market.

Too many people panicked and bought in 2006, 2007 etc even when they felt prices were overvalued. I don't think people are going to let that happen this time round.

With everything that is going on at the moment, it would be interesting to see what effect no Brexit would have here. At the moment there are few UK buyers in the Irish market, I include in that people returning to Ireland from the UK, because the pound is so weak and exchange rate so bad. If UK does not leave EU, the pound will likely surge so more “pound buyers” would be expected. That may also move prices here, no doubt the next two months will tell more.

jobless

Imagine that... Overpriced houses are falling.

Dav010

jobless wrote: »

Imagine that... Overpriced houses are falling.

Rather than looking at house price falls alone, consider that huge house price falls were one of the first signs that everyone could see, of the looming recession. If confidence in spending drops, lower house prices will not be what will effect you.

I would be less concerned if there was a 4% drop, but if we start seeing 20% drops, we are in trouble.

Darc19

Be careful about believing bullsh1t headlines in a bullsh1t rag.

If you read the article, I'll guess what the 12% relates to very high price houses in salubrious areas of Dublin.


Prices have softened and sellers are starting to become realistic and buyers have no need to rush in and buy anything that comes onto the market.

In a way, this should be the norm.

Dav010

Darc19 wrote: »

Be careful about believing bullsh1t headlines in a bullsh1t rag.

If you read the article, I'll guess what the 12% relates to very high price houses in salubrious areas of Dublin.


Prices have softened and sellers are starting to become realistic and buyers have no need to rush in and buy anything that comes onto the market.

In a way, this should be the norm.

Prices falling that amount when there is a shortage of supply is not the norm. If fact it is the opposite of the norm.

listermint

Dav010 wrote: »

Prices falling that amount when there is a shortage of supply is not the norm. If fact it is the opposite of the norm.

No it means the central bank rules are continuing to work.

Mortgages are not being given for that value so that value is not realistic resulting in price drops.


Unrealistic prices simple as that.

I can't see the central bank increasing the 3.5 times limit. To do so would be madness.

Dav010

listermint wrote: »

No it means the central bank rules are continuing to work.

Mortgages are not being given for that value so that value is not realistic resulting in price drops.


Unrealistic prices simple as that.

You could be right. But a significant percentage of buyers do not need mortgages so CB rules do not apply. I can’t read the article on the link and it may well be sensationalist with the “up to 12.5%”, that could have been properties way overpriced. Does it give an average decease and/or a percentage properties which have decreased?

Rapid, widespread, big decreases would reflect changing economic conditions rather just being limited to the housing sector. The last recession was borne out of credit and oversupply, that is not the case now, so it would be more of a worry.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

The 12.5% is D4.

is_that_so

Dav010 wrote: »

Prices falling that amount when there is a shortage of supply is not the norm. If fact it is the opposite of the norm.

While this may come from a vested interest it suggests that some level of stability has emerged.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/ireland-s-housing-market-is-stabilising-despite-claims-to-the-contrary-1.3958375

uck51js9zml2yt

Houses near me have dropped 5% and been on the market over a year.

Balanadan

I've definitely noticed things slowing down. Prices have stabilised or slightly dropped. New estates are building show houses now instead of just selling off plan, and are building houses which aren't yet sold. No harm really. While you could argue it is Brexit-related, and that may be some element of it, you also have to bear in mind that there is a limit as to how much people can borrow so there is a limit as to how high prices can go, and we've hit that limit. I've seen one or two developers try to get around that by either building smaller 3 bed semis, or now by building 2 beds, although I can't see the attraction of 2 bed houses myself and think they'll be a difficult sell for owner-occupiers when you compare it to the value on the second-hand market.

ted1

listermint wrote: »

No it means the central bank rules are continuing to work.

Mortgages are not being given for that value so that value is not realistic resulting in price drops.


Unrealistic prices simple as that.

It’s more Brexit. People holding off buying to see what happens.

I’m planning an extension and have the money sitting in the bank but going to hold off to next year and see what happens.

ChewBerecca

ted1 wrote: »

It’s more Brexit. People holding off buying to see what happens.

I’m planning an extension and have the money sitting in the bank but going to hold off to next year and see what happens.

In my area its completely down to people putting houses up for unrealistic amounts.

The house we are currently buying was on the market last year for 435k. This year it was put back on at 385k and we didnt even go sale agreed at that.

Looking at the property price register, houses I have been following almost all sold below asking, some 10k or more below.

Leprechaun77

There is still a very strong demand for a semi-detached houses in Dublin and these prices are certainly not falling in my area. In the last two years they have been very stable with maybe a 1-5% increase in selling price for similar houses.

The last house sold in two weeks, after just three viewings totaling about 40 couples/families. I suppose these property price soundbites can be manipulated depending on who is paying for the press release, and their particular motives. The increases/decreases have, and always will be, specific to the type of property and it’s location.

handlemaster

November right through the first quarter 2020 will be very interesting. Id suspect we will see a shake out with really drops coming when the recession brexit hits a year later

Darc19

Dav010 wrote: »

Prices falling that amount when there is a shortage of supply is not the norm. If fact it is the opposite of the norm.

There hasn't been a shortage in supply for well over 12 months.

Shortage of supply would mean new developments selling out and secondhand stock selling when it hits the market.

The media and commentators will talk about a theoretical shortage based on rudimentary adding up of figures, but just like in the boom years, their figures are way off the mark.

People will point to homeless figures. This is political football. 10k "homeless" at any one time would be about right for a country of 5m.

Remember that the homeless figures are made up by a large number of "difficult" families along with immigrants and locals "unwilling" to work

Northern Ireland homeless is about 4,000. (sinn fein keep very quiet about this)

UK homeless is over 250,000

Rents are certainly near unaffordable. Government could certainly do work in this area including allowing the home extension planning exemption be extended to stand alone garden room of less than 40sq m (subject to conditions)

Overall, I think the market has now finally settled to a reasonable equilibrium.

soirish

CSO Residential Property Price Index hasn't been updated since June. Will be interesting to see August and September.

Eric Cartman

in the latter half of this year we effectively hit the wall on the central bank caps, the people who were being optimistic at asking above that have had to drop back to a realistic number at the wall of those caps, thats all. The prices will plateau at this number for a while until we either see a significant supply increase or a credit constriction on mortgages.

Varik

Hard to compare like for like. They'd need to go area by area and and compare similar stock. People were complaining that too much new housing stock was on the upper end, this could be that there's a increase in the proportion of more moderate houses or that the upper end is slowing down as that is what developers were tending to build and now supply and demand are closing in that market.

ZX7R

Varik wrote: »

Hard to compare like for like. They'd need to go area by area and and compare similar stock. People were complaining that too much new housing stock was on the upper end, this could be that there's a increase in the proportion of more moderate houses or that the upper end is slowing down as that is what developers were tending to build and now supply and demand are closing in that market.

That's a good point about not comparing like for like, I was shocked to see the amount of second hand terrace House up for sale around Kildare, newbridge and surrounding areas with sale agreement on them, definitely seems to be an increase on sub €200000 house sales

Darc19

soirish wrote: »

CSO Residential Property Price Index hasn't been updated since June. Will be interesting to see August and September.

Problem is that it lags sale agreed by 4-6 months.

So a price registered tomorrow was probably agreed back on March /April.

The legal process is painfully slow here.

99problems1

Darc19 wrote: »

Be careful about believing bullsh1t headlines in a bullsh1t rag.

If you read the article, I'll guess what the 12% relates to very high price houses in salubrious areas of Dublin.


Prices have softened and sellers are starting to become realistic and buyers have no need to rush in and buy anything that comes onto the market.

In a way, this should be the norm.

I love seeing comments like these being thanked by many.

The more people who think things are dandy and normal, the bigger the shock will be and more we can take advantage.

mariaalice

99problems1 wrote: »

I love seeing comments like these being thanked by many.

The more people who think things are dandy and normal, the bigger the shock will be and the more we can take advantage.

The vast majority in Ireland get a good education which should have made thatm able to evaluate information and take a rational balanced view of 'evidence' yet there are still posters that think a property price crash would be fabulous, that a property price crash can occur in isolation from the rest of the economy, for them it will be all good no downside at all.

The could be an element of trolling in or its a coping mechanism, but I suspect a lot actually believe it.