No-deal Brexit to spark rural recession as cities prosper

drunkmonkey

Parts of rural Ireland will be plunged into recession by a no-deal Brexit, but urban areas will continue to grow.

As Taoiseach Leo Varadkar prepares for a showdown with Boris Johnson today, a new study predicts the fallout from Brexit will be “brutal” for some communities.
https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/as-leo-meets-boris-nodeal-brexit-to-spark-rural-recession-as-cities-prosper-38479468.html

There doesn't seem up be any link in the article to the study the independent is referring to....

So who's going to end up in recession, are they talking about border counties, farmers, food producers. They seem to be very sketchy on facts so people who are looking at financial armegeddon can prepare.

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Parts of rural Ireland will be plunged into recession by a no-deal Brexit, but urban areas will continue to grow.

As Taoiseach Leo Varadkar prepares for a showdown with Boris Johnson today, a new study predicts the fallout from Brexit will be “brutal” for some communities.
https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/as-leo-meets-boris-nodeal-brexit-to-spark-rural-recession-as-cities-prosper-38479468.html

There doesn't seem up be any link in the article to the study the independent is referring to....

So who's going to end up in recession, are they talking about border counties, farmers, food producers. They seem to be very sketchy on facts so people who are looking at financial armegeddon can prepare.

The sectors expected to be most affected are agri-food, fishing and hospitality. Think there is a fund for farmers already set up (€100m in that). There is also a loan fund of €300m available to businesses and one would expect some other emergency funding out of the Budget. All of that should emerge in the next couple of weeks.

biko

The study seems to be the accountancy firm EY’s ‘Economic Eye’ report

The new study puts together forecast warnings for the worst-case scenario Mr Varadkar can expect if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement.

Chief economist with EY Neil Gibson told the Irish Independent: “This disruption we foresee in the event of a no-deal Brexit, at a human level, can be pretty brutal.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1175592/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Ireland-Boris-Johnson-Leo-Varadkar-no-deal-backstop-latest-update



https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0909/1074757-ey-economic-eye/
EY cuts growth outlook due to weak global economy

Meanwhile, EY also said that a no-deal Brexit is projected to be sufficient to push Northern Ireland into recession as it predicts that the economy there is expected to contract by 0.6% next year.

It also predicts that a no-deal would cut 60,300 jobs across the island of Ireland by 2022 - 41,500 in the Republic and 18,800 in Northern Ireland.

Professor Neil Gibson, chief economist for EY Ireland, said the external economic climate is as challenging as it has been for a decade, adding that the dual threat of trade wars and Brexit have the potential to derail the country's rapid growth.

interactive

Lets hope the economy crashes.
yes you read that correctly.
We are soon to be the dumping ground for those who previously wished to gain refugee status in the UK.
Our social welfare is a soft touch and pays top dollar compared to most EU countries, English being the most widely spoken language in the world, the EU will dump them here to make their transition to EU life easier.
The only hope we have is a nasty recession, you will soon see the government change its tune about accepting refugees by the boat load, the housing crisis will solve itself over night as the multinationals pack up and leave, their foreign national staff will leave as well.
Hospital beds will free up.
Crack down on social welfare fraud.
Some of the positives that we will see

interactive

interactive wrote: »

Lets hope the economy crashes.
yes you read that correctly.

You're in a minority of one.

interactive

Deleted User wrote: »

You're in a minority of one.

i think you will be surprised about how many see brexit as a chance to enact currently unpalatable changes, they wont be unpalatable one the economy crashes, the public will demand them

meeeeh

interactive wrote: »

Lets hope the economy crashes.
yes you read that correctly.
We are soon to be the dumping ground for those who previously wished to gain refugee status in the UK.
Our social welfare is a soft touch and pays top dollar compared to most EU countries, English being the most widely spoken language in the world, the EU will dump them here to make their transition to EU life easier.
The only hope we have is a nasty recession, you will soon see the government change its tune about accepting refugees by the boat load, the housing crisis will solve itself over night as the multinationals pack up and leave, their foreign national staff will leave as well.
Hospital beds will free up.
Crack down on social welfare fraud.
Some of the positives that we will see

I didn't know that 12 year olds can post here.

blanch152

It has always been the case, that no matter the Brexit, rural communities were bound to suffer more.

Food exports primarily go to the UK and the UK is one of the largest tourism markets. Those are the industries that rural Ireland depends most on.

In the cities, some bounce from banking, finance, insurance relocations will cancel out other losses, but Barclays or whoever will hardly want their European HQ in Strokestown or Clonakilty. We will be hard pressed to get enough of them to Dublin.

One thing is certain, Brexit will bring disruption as traditional markets, traditional supply lines and traditional certainties are thrown out the window. That will have a negative effect on economic growth, but the key question is whether there will be enough positive effects. Even if there are enough positive effects, the won't be where the negative ones are. If mushrooms or milk facilities close, those workers won't get work for finance companies.

ILoveYourVibes

Crap.

Everyone says Ireland is prepared for brexit. I dont think so.

weldoninhio

interactive wrote: »

Lets hope the economy crashes.
yes you read that correctly.
We are soon to be the dumping ground for those who previously wished to gain refugee status in the UK.
Our social welfare is a soft touch and pays top dollar compared to most EU countries, English being the most widely spoken language in the world, the EU will dump them here to make their transition to EU life easier.
The only hope we have is a nasty recession, you will soon see the government change its tune about accepting refugees by the boat load, the housing crisis will solve itself over night as the multinationals pack up and leave, their foreign national staff will leave as well.
Hospital beds will free up.
Crack down on social welfare fraud.
Some of the positives that we will see

100%. The economy needs to be reset. The constant bubble we live in has to be popped once and for all. The past recession, while bad, was nowhere what was needed. We are almost up to the same level of bubble again. Cost of living, rent, etc are all at unsustainable rates. We need something like Japans lost decade to bring the level of living back to a sustainable level.

TuringBot47

interactive wrote: »

... the housing crisis will solve itself over night as the multinationals pack up and leave, their foreign national staff will leave as well.

Why would the multinationals pack up and leave ?

They picked Ireland explicitly to have a presence in the EU.
If the house prices/rent falls, then they'll be able to attract more people.

Not sure you thought that through.
You sound like a public sector worker I used to know...

meeeeh

weldoninhio wrote: »

100%. The economy needs to be reset. The constant bubble we live in has to be popped once and for all. The past recession, while bad, was nowhere what was needed. We are almost up to the same level of bubble again. Cost of living, rent, etc are all at unsustainable rates. We need something like Japans lost decade to bring the level of living back to a sustainable level.

I take it you were not trying to scrape money together to pay employees, revenue and stay in business. The only people dismissing previous recession are those who were in bullet proof jobs or not wanting/needing to work. You want to inflict another decade ov misery on people just so you can pay less rent.

Anyway I believe the impact of Brexit will be sectoral, some will do well and others will be under more pressure. Farmers will be in later group and it might even suit the state to reduce meat production.

weldoninhio

meeeeh wrote: »

I take it you were not trying to scrape money together to pay employees, revenue and stay in business. The only people dismissing previous recession are those who were in bullet proof jobs or not wanting/needing to work. You want to inflict another decade ov misery on people just so you can pay less rent.

Anyway I believe the impact of Brexit will be sectoral, some will do well and others will be under more pressure. Farmers will be in later group and it might even suit the state to reduce meat production.

Bullet proof job?? The jobs I had during the last recession was as far from bulletproof as is possible. Recruitment and then the call centre (digital sweatshop) of a failed bank.

I’m a realist. This bubble needs to burst and it needs to burst hard. I’m sure I’ll suffer too, but I’m willing to take that pain if it will give us a more level headed economy, and knock the ‘I dont need it, but I want it’ attitude in the long term.

screamer

weldoninhio wrote: »

Bullet proof job?? The jobs I had during the last recession was as far from bulletproof as is possible. Recruitment and then the call centre (digital sweatshop) of a failed bank.

I’m a realist. This bubble needs to burst and it needs to burst hard. I’m sure I’ll suffer too, but I’m willing to take that pain if it will give us a more level headed economy, and knock the ‘I dont need it, but I want it’ attitude in the long term.

Christ almighty we have lost a whole generation due to the last recession to emigration. People struggled to survive even remember the guy who said he fed his kids the cereal box when the cereal ran low.... yes extreme example but you’d wish for that level of poverty, hardship and cruelty on us again. Get out of it.
I for one have learned a lot from that decade of deprivation and if the economy busts badly here, I’m off with my family to make a life elsewhere. Much as Ireland is our home, there’s no way we’re going through another decade of depression. Life’s too short

meeeeh

I don't think Brexit will cause the same type recession. But it sickens me when some wish this type of hardship onto people again. The increased suicide rates, broken families, emigration. How many people have to emigrate, suffer depression or kill themselves so that recession will be severe enough and rents will be low enough. Is that the suffering the likes of Weldoninhio ard prepared to take. Not really, he had to work in the call centre. Oh the horror!

cryptocurrency

Nobody sane or over 30 would wish the last recession on anybody

weldoninhio

screamer wrote: »

Christ almighty we have lost a whole generation due to the last recession to emigration. People struggled to survive even remember the guy who said he fed his kids the cereal box when the cereal ran low.... yes extreme example but you’d wish for that level of poverty, hardship and cruelty on us again. Get out of it.
I for one have learned a lot from that decade of deprivation and if the economy busts badly here, I’m off with my family to make a life elsewhere. Much as Ireland is our home, there’s no way we’re going through another decade of depression. Life’s too short

Decade of deprivation/depression hahaha. Only the 2 holidays a year was it?? You aren’t a subeditor for The Sun by any chance?? The main people that struggled were the ones who over borrowed to a ridiculous extent.

pjohnson

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Nobody sane or over 30 would wish the last recession on anybody

That explains it pretty well tbf. Should be plenty here wanting a recession so.

weldoninhio

FFS, you’d think we had the purge going by some of the sensationalist bullshyte on here.

Harry Palmr

This place is full of hard mens fantasies. Embarrassing.

Obviously the rural economy will take the hit - it's loosing ground bar some niche products/services as it is.