Armstrong 2019/20 season

spidersweb

DancingSpaniel wrote: »

Sorry if this is off topic, but is there a maximum post length on boards.ie? Just popped into my head for some reason.

I think it might be for people who have only managed 6 post ever on boards.ie. Nobody forces people to read any post apparently. You can ignore any and all posts at will. Amazing technology.

checknraise

Having read the point's on fixtures made in the thread I agree and I think if clubs want to play 4ncl they should look to have their fixtures played midweek.

I do think you are underestimating the number of Irish/Armstrong players playing 4ncl currently. If you look at the top 32 players 20 have played 4ncl in the last few years. A few would not be Armstrong players so are not affected but a large portion of our best players do actively play.

Elm Mount 2 - Shane played last weekend for the Celtic Tigers and got a great draw with black vs GM Nick Pert. David is a regular 4ncl player got at least one of his norms at the 4ncl.

Bray - De Verdier is a regular enough player for Wood Green.

Trinity - 4 have played for Gonzaga's 4ncl team over the last few years and 1 played for Cheddleton this year.

Your average chess player does not care about 4ncl results and why should they. The 4ncl is just a regular team tournament. What the 4ncl is though is an opportunity for our players to test themselves against some of the best players in world. Experience that is not possible by playing in the Armstrong.

spidersweb

checknraise wrote: »

Having read the point's on fixtures made in the thread I agree and I think if clubs want to play 4ncl they should look to have their fixtures played midweek.

I do think you are underestimating the number of Irish/Armstrong players playing 4ncl currently. If you look at the top 32 players 20 have played 4ncl in the last few years. A few would not be Armstrong players so are not affected but a large portion of our best players do actively play.

Elm Mount 2 - Shane played last weekend for the Celtic Tigers and got a great draw with black vs GM Nick Pert. David is a regular 4ncl player got at least one of his norms at the 4ncl.

Bray - De Verdier is a regular enough player for Wood Green.

Trinity - 4 have played for Gonzaga's 4ncl team over the last few years and 1 played for Cheddleton this year.

Your average chess player does not care about 4ncl results and why should they. The 4ncl is just a regular team tournament. What the 4ncl is though is an opportunity for our players to test themselves against some of the best players in world. Experience that is not possible by playing in the Armstrong.

Don't disagree substantially with what you are saying at all, but just the emphasis and scale.

I stand corrected on the numbers of players who have played from the Armstrong so thanks for setting me straight on that. Though I still contend the numbers are very small and very few games played.

Shane I overlooked but he has just started now so I think that is two games ever.David been playing for years and indeed got his IM title norms entirely from the 4 NCL, but never with a conflict or issue with his Armstrong games, because my point is just, that one has nothing to do with the other, and it should stay this way.

Michael De Verdier and Colm Daly for Bray sees two games played by the later (more than two decades ago in the 1990s) and the former not playing any games since last season with a total of 12 games played ever. Again all unconnected with the Armstrong

The likes of Trinity I don't know about other than Karl Mc Phillips plays in, and has played in the 4 NCL and Kilkenny too, but yet again unconnected with the Armstrong.

I understand what you are saying about the 4 NCL being an opportunity to play more international games with the chance to play even stronger players more often and I agree that is great. I like to see Irish players playing there and see it as only a good thing.

Though again I would also contend that there are plenty of chances for Irish players to play in events and against very strong players IM and GM levels here in Ireland. Ironically in large part because of the excellent work and activities emanating from Gonzaga CC as a great hub and catalyst of chess growth and development in Ireland.

Particular credit has to also go to the former ICU Chairman who has done so much fantastic work in respect of the norm events and making the Irish Ch also so much stronger and interesting in recent years. The sheer volume of strong players is such that there is never a shortage of tough games.

Plenty of strong international level players playing in Ireland and the Armstrong Cup no less so. I would like to keep it that way and encourage more players to play in the LCU leagues and see any action that would , however unintentionally, deflect or distract from that as a bad development.

For example, people giving priority to any other league anywhere else. That is the core of my concern. Not to be in any way critical or fail to support the fine efforts of fellow chess players wanting to be more active internationally seek to play even more stronger players. That should be indeed applauded and encouraged. Just never at the expense of the LCU leagues and the Armstrong Cup in particular.

VanMorrison

Are ye all not overlooking a rather obvious point?

The Gonzo A Captain could have easily changed the Gonzaga A v Bray fixture anywhere between October and December if he'd just asked. He waited until 10 days before the fixture before realizing there was a problem.

<snip>

There really is no problem accommodating both the 4NCL and the newly established Enterprise League (Dublin to Belfast, get it?) <snip>.

Mod edit - personal abuse removed

macelligott

I wonder will the last two rounds of the Armstrong have to be played after Easter?
It might be worth considering playing both rounds on the same day - one in the morning and one in the evening!

cdeb

If the final round of the leagues go ahead as scheduled - and that's obviously completely up in the air at this stage - then the venue (Coláiste Éanna) is probably big enough to allow for hosting two rounds of Divs 1-4 alright. That would put big pressure on clubs for subs of course - but in the greater scheme of things, so what?

The BEA/Bodley would only have play-off involvement on the final day normally, but in this instance they'd probably have to try squeeze in for their final rounds and have the play-offs after. Or if there's no room, they may have to just play on a home/away basis as normal.

All completely dependent on the next two weeks of course. The effective lockdown is until 29th March. Signs from Europe are that this is getting worse, not better, so it'd quite possible the lockdown will be extended. So we'll just have to wait and see.

RooksPawn

I can't believe some people are still talking about playing chess face to face in the foreseeable future.
Starting tomorrow, from what i hear on the radio, thousands of less-sick patients are going to be moved from hospitals to these temporary wards that are being set up at Templemore etc, to make room for Covid-19 patients.
By the time of the scheduled last round of the Armstrong, there could be more Covid-19 patients than the HSE can manage.

Maybe the pandemic will peak before the Irish Championships but I think every over-the-board chess event up to the end of May (at least) could be cancelled now.

It's to early to know whether the Irish Championships can be played in July.

The good news is that the Candidates tournament starts on Tuesday (11 am I think) and can be watched online, so chess players are a lot better served than fans of other sports.

sodacat11

I can't see chess or other sports returning to normal within the next six months and even then what we consider to be "normal" could be a lot different to how we understand it now. I'm surprised but glad that the Candidates is going ahead, with no sport to watch or think about at least that will be something to occupy me. I am not expecting to return to work until September at the earliest.

pdemp

macelligott wrote: »

I wonder will the last two rounds of the Armstrong have to be played after Easter?
It might be worth considering playing both rounds on the same day - one in the morning and one in the evening!

Easter 2021?

macelligott

If all the remaining games in the Armstrong are to be cancelled, I think the team leading at present - Elm Mount - should be awarded the trophy forthwith!

Danville

macelligott wrote: »

If all the remaining games in the Armstrong are to be cancelled, I think the team leading at present - Elm Mount - should be awarded the trophy forthwith!

I agree , but only to help you start the discussion, which should be very entertaining!
I never had you down as somebody with a death wish.

DmanDmythDledge

I don't forsee any issues finishing the leagues, albeit it could be July or August until they are.

cdeb

The main problem really is not knowing when all this will be over.

It obviously looks almost certain that the government restrictions will remain in place beyond 29th March. But in theory they could be lifted by 26th April, which is when the last round of the leagues are scheduled. I don't think they will, but in theory it could be possible to play rounds 10/11 on that day.

But it could go on through May/Jun/Jul as well. In that case, do we try to play the last two rounds in August, so we're ready for the new season in September? But another factor then is - if there's a 3-month lockdown, do people really want to come out of that and start giving up Saturdays on chess when there's family to catch up with instead?

You could abandon the leagues as are (I imagine Gonzaga will pay their ICU fees! ) - but how do you decide the BEA South, where three clubs are on the exact same percentage in the race for second place, two of whom have a match in hand on the third, and two of whom have to play each other? You could do like the pools do and predict the results of the outstanding matches based on typical board strength. But it's likely there won't be a particularly satisfying solution unfortunately. And that's probably ok, as it's only a game in the end of the day.

Ultimately, the main factor is that we just don't know how things are going to look in a week's time, let alone a month's time or two months' time. Until things start to clear up, no decision can really be made.

In the meantime, if clubs and members are interested, there is the option of setting up online club events to complement the ICU's events. Obviously the latter are a great initiative, but there's space as well for some club tournaments to keep a bit of club spirit going as well.

DmanDmythDledge

The lockdown will certainly go on until the end of May I reckon. The government were aware it would go beyond 29 March when the initial announcement was made but did not want to cause hysteria by announcing a longer one.

The test results are misleading at the moment. Most getting test results now would have started developing symptoms before the lockdown. And plenty of social gatherings etc since then, even up to yesterday. The curve is nowhere near flattened. (The danger is also people will think it is and everywhere should reopen).

Best way to finish the leagues, as someone previously suggested here, is to play it over a weekend. If it doesn't suit some, teams have declared subs. Would probably have the least disruption on players. If played as arranged games, there would be no issues delaying the start of 2020/21 season by c. a month. There's enough gaps in the scheduling this time of year to make up for time.

cdeb

Yeah, I think we all expected this to go on longer than 29th March alright.

But the question is - where is the end point in all this? It's not enough for Irish cases to go down to zero for fourteen days. It'll just come back again once travel to the US/Britain/Italy wherever starts up again (South Korea is seeing this now). To get herd immunity - which is what our plan is, albeit by flattening the curve compared to Britain/the US doing it all at once - 60% or so of people need to be infected. That's 3 million people, and at the current rate of 100 per day (albeit that cases diagnosed isn't necessarily the same as actual cases in Ireland), it'd take 80 years to reach that level. Even at 10,000 people a day, it's ten months. A vaccine is supposed to be a year off, though some are already in trials.

So we can speculate, but really beyond putting a timeframe on when a decision on abandoning/adjudicating the leagues has to be made - and I think that could wait until the end of July anyway - then there really isn't a lot that can practically be done at this stage.

macelligott

That's 3 million people, and at the current rate of 100 per day (albeit that cases diagnosed isn't necessarily the same as actual cases in Ireland), it'd take 80 years to reach that level. Even at 10,000 people a day, it's ten months. A vaccine is supposed to be a year off, though some are already in trials.
.[/quote]

Wrong! The growth is exponential. At this rate we will have 100,000 cases in 3 weeks. Cases doubling every 3 days!

cdeb

I know that - that's why I went up to 10k cases/day, to try take that into account. It's way too early to tell if the trend of the past while will continue into the future (Italy is going up 50% for every three days for example, although that assumes their figures are reliable, which they're almost certainly not, and it's not yet two weeks since lockdown was implemented). And even then 100k cases is still only 3% of what's expected. On the strict mathematical basis of cases doubling every three days, 3,000,000 cases would be reached at the end of April, but immunity/self-isolation would have kicked in by then to slow things down.

But I'm not trying to write a maths paper here - the point is that this is going to last a good while, and what we're seeing now will bear no resemblance to what we see in a couple of weeks, so there's no way we can make any sort of decision now on something as trite as the leagues, other than to put a vague line in the sand as to when to make a formal decision on abandoning.

DmanDmythDledge

It is impossible to know when it's going to end but I think it's reasonably known (or should be) that we won't be out of a lockdown by end of May.

cdeb

That certainly seems a reasonable assumption at the moment alright

spidersweb

Chess is going to be the least of people's concerns or interests. It is the end of the world as we know it.

Joedryan

spidersweb wrote: »

Chess is going to be the least of people's concerns or interests. It is the end of the world as we know it.

Perhaps a slight exaggeration?

But I take your point.

spidersweb

Joedryan wrote: »

Perhaps a slight exaggeration?

But I take your point.

I was half joking of course, yet it is hard to know if we are living in an episode of the Twilight Zone and we might all wake on on April 1 and discover this was all a bad joke?

sodacat11

spidersweb wrote: »

Chess is going to be the least of people's concerns or interests. It is the end of the world as we know it.

Many a true word is spoken in jest. I think that the world as we know it will change hugely when this crisis is over. We don't know yet what the full impact will be socially and financially and how our behaviour will change in the future. I am not religious in any way but I do marvel at the power of Nature and the way that everything within it is constantly changing and evolving. The earth's population has been growing out of control in recent years, I think that this virus and the many more that will undoubtedly follow is simply nature's way of restoring the balance.

macelligott

No word from the LCU about the leagues. I suppose it’s difficult for them to make any decisions without more information. I still think they should just award the Armstrong cup to Elm Mount now :-)

cdeb

What is there to say?

While the lockdown continues, the leagues can't resume.

The next season is due to start in October, so there's plenty of time yet to finish the season. But it all depends on issues far, far beyond the LCU's control

mikhail

I agree: the only sensible decision the LCU can make for now is a waiting move.

DmanDmythDledge

cdeb wrote: »

What is there to say?

While the lockdown continues, the leagues can't resume.

The next season is due to start in October, so there's plenty of time yet to finish the season. But it all depends on issues far, far beyond the LCU's control

Yep. If it means Rounds 10 & 11 roll into the new season I don't think there's much wrong with that. Just give reasonable time for clubs to finalise teams & LCU to draft fixtures.

cdeb

Further restrictions in place until the May Bank Holiday weekend, so obviously that means the last round of the leagues won't be going ahead as scheduled now.

There's a hint that some slight lifting of restrictions may happen after that. Obviously would have to wait and see what that is, but it could potentially be enough to allow league games to resume again, but the final rounds may have to be played on a home/away basis if there was still a narrow (e.g. 50) limit on public gatherings.

If that were to happen, then of course some players may opt to not play anyway, and that'd be understandable. It may be that, in that scenario, some clubs would end up having to field weaker teams than normal. Ultimately, there really is no satisfactory outcome to all of this. And the above is only speculation based on what might happen; we really still have to wait and see.

DmanDmythDledge

I think given the age profile of a number of players (60+) any chess events should be postponed until almost the last phase of restrictions being lifted, i.e. when pubs, restaurants etc are allowed reopen.

RooksPawn

When is the LCU going to take a decision about closing out the 2019/20 leagues?