51% of Northern Ireland voters back united Ireland

steddyeddy

This according to an poll published by Lord Ashcroft. Interestingly the only age group that would vote to stay in the union are those over 65. Doubtlessly this is partly down to Brexit and the economic and social problems it will cause in Northern Ireland. The Belfast Telegraph reports on this.

This isn't long after a Channel 4 report where some senior unionists are claiming they could see themselves voting for a United Ireland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

_Kaiser_

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

Once the "yay we get to stay in the EU" and "yay we got the 6 counties back" euphoria wore off in the supporters of this idea, and the reality of increased taxes, poorer services (especially for those used to the NHS), and the inevitable security issues that would arise from those not on board set in, I think the reality wouldn't be quite as attractive as the fantasy.

NIMAN

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

Once the "yay we get to stay in the EU" and "yay we got the 6 counties back" euphoria wore off in the supporters of this idea, the reality of increased taxes, poorer services (especially for those used to the NHS), and the inevitable security issues that would arise from those not on board, I think the reality wouldn't be quite as attractive as the fantasy.

Don't know why the NHS is held up as something special.

Its a mess, and in as much a state of chaos as our own health service.

James Brown

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

Once the "yay we get to stay in the EU" and "yay we got the 6 counties back" euphoria wore off in the supporters of this idea, and the reality of increased taxes, poorer services (especially for those used to the NHS), and the inevitable security issues that would arise from those not on board set in, I think the reality wouldn't be quite as attractive as the fantasy.

TBF, I don't think the year on year record breaking crises can be made much worse, we're on that road already.
I believe there's a level of acceptable crisis for FF/FG and we'll only go beyond it when their economy crashes and they blame lehmans/brexit, take your pick. In short, there will never be a time were we are doing good enough for those with no regard for their fellow countrymen and women.

We are set for a no-deal hard border. Then you'll have your security issues.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

TBF, I don't think the year on year record breaking crises can be made much worse, we're on that road already.
I believe there's a level of acceptable crisis for FF/FG and we'll only go beyond it when their economy crashes and they blame lehmans/brexit, take your pick. In short, there will never be a time were we are doing good enough for those with no regard for their fellow countrymen and women.

We are set for a no-deal hard border. Then you'll have your security issues.

Yes, highest employment ever, highest average income ever, highest social welfare rates ever, the year on year record breaking crises can't be made much worse.............................................................huh? Something does not compute. Let me think, budget in surplus, economy growing, yeah, they are record breaking crises.

The broken record of complaining, whinging and whining goes round and round. Back in 2011, we were going bankrupt at the end of the week, now we have a budget surplus and a diminishing debt mountain. Then it was the jobs crisis, now we have the highest employment ever. After that came the crisis of the benefits not being spread evenly, but now we have some of the highest social welfare rates in the world. The latest is the homelessness crisis, but as the problem plateaus, new angles are clung to to complain about....

https://www.thejournal.ie/homelessness-homeless-housing-eoghan-murphy-4792178-Sep2019/

"This is the 6th month in a row the figures have remained about 10,000" says one of the whingers, not noticing that if it is only 10,275, just above 10,000, at least things must have stabilised, the first pre-condition for things to get better.

At least if no-deal Brexit happens, they will be able to complain about the Government not sorting out the supply of food/medicine/drink/avocados/Brie etc.

maccored

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

Once the "yay we get to stay in the EU" and "yay we got the 6 counties back" euphoria wore off in the supporters of this idea, and the reality of increased taxes, poorer services (especially for those used to the NHS), and the inevitable security issues that would arise from those not on board set in, I think the reality wouldn't be quite as attractive as the fantasy.

i will say this again - to think that a UI is merely the south taking over the north and paying its bills is an extremely naive idea

ChikiChiki

blanch152 wrote: »

Matt Barrett wrote: »

TBF, I don't think the year on year record breaking crises can be made much worse, we're on that road already.
I believe there's a level of acceptable crisis for FF/FG and we'll only go beyond it when their economy crashes and they blame lehmans/brexit, take your pick. In short, there will never be a time were we are doing good enough for those with no regard for their fellow countrymen and women.

We are set for a no-deal hard border. Then you'll have your security issues.

Yes, highest employment ever, highest average income ever, highest social welfare rates ever, the year on year record breaking crises can't be made much worse.............................................................huh? Something does not compute. Let me think, budget in surplus, economy growing, yeah, they are record breaking crises.

The broken record of complaining, whinging and whining goes round and round. Back in 2011, we were going bankrupt at the end of the week, now we have a budget surplus and a diminishing debt mountain. Then it was the jobs crisis, now we have the highest employment ever. After that came the crisis of the benefits not being spread evenly, but now we have some of the highest social welfare rates in the world. The latest is the homelessness crisis, but as the problem plateaus, new angles are clung to to complain about....

https://www.thejournal.ie/homelessness-homeless-housing-eoghan-murphy-4792178-Sep2019/

"This is the 6th month in a row the figures have remained about 10,000" says one of the whingers, not noticing that if it is only 10,275, just above 10,000, at least things must have stabilised, the first pre-condition for things to get better.

At least if no-deal Brexit happens, they will be able to complain about the Government not sorting out the supply of food/medicine/drink/avocados/Brie etc.

Your post can be translated as "I don't know how people who do such whinging don't commit suicide".

It's not all about the economy ffs. FG have been ****ing atrocious.

jim salter

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, highest employment ever, highest average income ever, highest social welfare rates ever, the year on year record breaking crises can't be made much worse.............................................................huh? Something does not compute. Let me think, budget in surplus, economy growing, yeah, they are record breaking crises.

The broken record of complaining, whinging and whining goes round and round. Back in 2011, we were going bankrupt at the end of the week, now we have a budget surplus and a diminishing debt mountain. Then it was the jobs crisis, now we have the highest employment ever. After that came the crisis of the benefits not being spread evenly, but now we have some of the highest social welfare rates in the world. The latest is the homelessness crisis, but as the problem plateaus, new angles are clung to to complain about....

https://www.thejournal.ie/homelessness-homeless-housing-eoghan-murphy-4792178-Sep2019/

"This is the 6th month in a row the figures have remained about 10,000" says one of the whingers, not noticing that if it is only 10,275, just above 10,000, at least things must have stabilised, the first pre-condition for things to get better.

At least if no-deal Brexit happens, they will be able to complain about the Government not sorting out the supply of food/medicine/drink/avocados/Brie etc.

All your examples are being used isolation without referencing the 'why'.

Highest employemnt ever - relative to when and what and how does that relate to today?

Highest average income ever - highest cost of living ever with a lower quality of life ever. Highest rates of tax ever - everything costs (relatively) more than it ever has.

Highest social welfare rates ever - nothing for a gov't to be proud of.

The surplus is simply down to increased (and mulitple) new taxes that didn't exist previously.

In 2011 we my have een going bankrupt 'at the end of the week' but it wasn't the gov't that 'solved' that - it was the troika (and it was intentional and controlled).

The reality is (whether or not you accept it) is that the gov't are not and have not been in control for a very long time and are (for the most part) consciously incompetent which gives them plausable deniability

lawred2

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

Once the "yay we get to stay in the EU" and "yay we got the 6 counties back" euphoria wore off in the supporters of this idea, and the reality of increased taxes, poorer services (especially for those used to the NHS), and the inevitable security issues that would arise from those not on board set in, I think the reality wouldn't be quite as attractive as the fantasy.

Any transition arrangement would take a decade or more with the UK contributing towards it's share of liabilities and responsibilities.

Even after a transition period, any pensions accrued while in the United kingdom would be paid by the crown in perpetuity..

I get the feeling that you think Ireland would at the tick of a clock take over the running costs and liabilities of NI

That isn't how it works.

Anyone who can't see the ultimate benefits to this island of unification simply isn't trying hard enough.

kneemos

Fifty one percent isn't really a resounding lets do it.

McMurphy

kneemos wrote: »

Fifty one percent isn't really a resounding lets do it.

I think you're missing the point tbh.

lawred2

kneemos wrote: »

Fifty one percent isn't really a resounding lets do it.

It's the trend that is most noteworthy..

steddyeddy

kneemos wrote: »

Fifty one percent isn't really a resounding lets do it.

No it's certainly not. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that factors related to Brexit are pushing it in that direction. We haven't even had Brexit yet. When NI is taken out of the single market it will be screwed beyond recognition. We know from polls that Brexit voters in England would rather have Brexit than to keep NI. In other words there's no will to keep funding it. I'm not even going to get started about the implications for peace once a hard border is up.

Guy:Incognito

Can they not just be their own independent country?

jimmycrackcorm

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Said it before, will say it again..

This would be a disaster for the Republic which already has enough difficulties providing essential services, and has no apparent answer to the housing and rental problems or the increased costs of living generally.

It was a disaster for us when we left the UK.
Yet we did.

The NI striation will continue indefinitely until it gets resolved. Which means we will have to bite the bullet at some point.

But it's not the 1920s any more and we've seen how this country has recovered from the consciously crisis over the last decade. Absorbing NI will be much easier than what we've just gone through.

I'd prefer we do it sooner.

steddyeddy

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It was a disaster for us when we left the UK.
Yet we did.

The NI striation will continue indefinitely until it gets resolved. Which means we will have to bite the bullet at some point.

But it's not the 1920s any more and we've seen how this country has recovered from the consciously crisis over the last decade. Absorbing NI will be much easier than what we've just gone through.

I'd prefer we do it sooner.

I'd prefer that they experience the effects of the DUP's Brexit vision before we unite. After all most people in NI voted to remain in the EU.

kneemos

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Can they not just be their own independent country?

On subsistence from GB to the tune of several billion I think.
Would probably rule out a union with Scotland if they were to leave I'd imagine.

Guy:Incognito

kneemos wrote: »

On subsistence from GB to the tune of several billion I think.
Would probably rule out a union with Scotland if they were to leave I'd imagine.

Well if they're not capable of standing on their own 2 feet we shouldnt be entertaining the idea.

Galwayguy35

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Well if they're not capable of standing on their own 2 feet we shouldnt be entertaining the idea.

Of course they aren't capable, if it wasn't for the £11 billion the Brits give them every year they would be screwed.

Best leave things as they are IMO, people there have the right to their own identity now and let the Brits continue paying for it.

is_that_so

lawred2 wrote: »

It's the trend that is most noteworthy..

It is also worth noting that polls have a +/- 2-3% but it really is not the time to be taking on something of that magnitude. Indeed not even after the next election. I'd give it at least 5 years before even considering a poll.

suicide_circus

kneemos wrote: »

Fifty one percent isn't really a resounding lets do it.

if it was good enough for Brexit....and that worked out well!

For Forks Sake

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Can they not just be their own independent country?

They'd be insolvent within three hours. And I'm not exaggerating, the place is a black hole for public money

Sky Blue 20

Have to wonder who or where they Polled.
Only 2% of Catholics would vote to stay in the UK.
Get a higher number of people that would vote stay up the Falls Road than that %.

maccored

the north purposely was designed not to survive on its own

mariaalice

I have changed my mind and do think it will come about in some form with in the next 20 years, however, the form it will take will not make anyone happy and will lead to even more ultra naval gazing by both sides, both sides will still be there.

JoZeb

I think there's a huge amount to do in advance of any kind of border poll, and that needs to start now. It's not so much the structures but the culture. I'm from the north* but I've been coming and going to the south most of my life - for work, for holidays, to visit friends.

Last month, I was in Dublin, in a taxi, when the taxi man suggested that the unionists 'should go back to Scotland.' It's the first time in all those years up and down that I've had that said to me - and I'm not the only one to have seen a growth in this statement, that if the Unionists were all removed, things would be much easier. (And, hey, they might be... but Trump would also like a lot of mexicans to go home, too and that's not solving a lot in the US that I can see)

Except I was born in Northern Ireland, as were my kids, and my family for many generations. As far as I know, I have nothing to do with Scotland (but might have some French Hugenot in me, maybe I could swan off to the south of France instead. Nicer weather...)

An interesting thing to note, actually, is how many of the Northern Irish identify as neither Irish nor British, but Northern Irish (around a quarter of the population, iirc, rising to 57% depending on where the stats are from). If there's to be a UI - and we know the demographs in the North are going that way - then there is work to be done in accepting that there will be a changed culture.

It's not possible for all these people with differing cultural identities to just fit in and go with the flow of being 'Irish' as it currently is. There is an expanding argument in the North (I'm not sure how much it's discussed in the South, but would be interested to know) that the concept of a UI is not helpful since it suggests this sense of uniting into the Ireland that is in situ, but that the concept of a New Ireland, where both cultures will have to change and understand one another to merge successfully. (Without the name change, of course)

As much as many in the North will have to ask themselves how they will fit in, I think many in the South will have to consider what, in the current culture, may have to change. It will be an interesting journey, and too late when it actually happens.....

(*For the clarity of this post, I'm from a unionist area and background, although I'm personally pretty middle-of-the-road)

lawred2

The amount of people who use what taxi drivers say as some foundation for a point they are making never ceases to amaze me.

JoZeb

lawred2 wrote: »

The amount of people who use what taxi drivers say as some foundation for a point they are making never ceases to amaze me.

Sorry about that. The amount of people who jump on only one section of a post to put it down never ceases to amaze me, too.



My point (as much as I had one) was about the stats of where the NI cultural identity sits and what kind of coming together migh be needed in the future. The taxi man was merely an illustrative element within that - because the incident made me question where that identity sat. So a catalyst, not the basis.

lawred2

JoZeb wrote: »

Sorry about that. The amount of people who jump on only one section of a post to put it down never ceases to amaze me, too.



My point (as much as I had one) was about the stats of where the NI cultural identity sits and what kind of coming together migh be needed in the future. The taxi man was merely an illustrative element within that.

It was the basis for your post.

JDigweed

Good post there by JoZeb, it would have to be the creation of an entirely new state rather than the North slipping into the ways of the South.
New flag, anthem, government, health, education etc.
There's a million or so people that have a British identity and that would need to be protected and their fears listened to. I listened to a Stephen Nolan podcast where farmers and some unionists were afraid there would be a land grab or some sort of ethnic cleansing. You might laugh at this but it's a real concern for some.
Personally I think there so much to gain from a new Ireland for both sides.

TuringBot47

steddyeddy wrote: »

51% of Northern Ireland voters back united Ireland

That's great... but how much of the republic want those dysfunctional Nordies back?
United Ireland... .nice idea in principle... in practice a huge economic burden on top of our huge National debt, Brexit impacts and environmental issues which will hit us soon directly in prices.

Not willing to pay for a united Ireland.