Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

threeball

Water John wrote: »

With suggestions like, making Farage their EU Commissioner, they are really into Trump territory.

They're trying to push the EU in to not offering an extension which suits the Boris and co down to the ground.

blackcard

So Bobby Friedman on the Sky News Press Preview agrees with a report in the Telegraph that Boris is proposing to nominate Farage as an EU commissioner. The tactic is to stymie any progress on the EU agreeing a budget until Ireland caves in on the border. This is sinking to a new low

Stop moaning ffs

threeball wrote: »

Isn't that exactly what Johnson wants. If there's no extension it's a default no deal so the hard line Tories get what they want and the EU are the bad boys.

In a crash out scenario post 31st, Blame the Eu has a very limited shelf life. Pun intended.
When job losses food shortages and rocketing prices hit home for the entire population of U.K. not just the rabid brexiters, media and public anger will switch their focus to Westminster and all involved.
And following from that back to the table in a far weaker position and swallowing the WA like it or not.

maebee

Water John wrote: »

With suggestions like, making Farage their EU Commissioner, they are really into Trump territory.

It's childish. Scraping the barrel. There's a lot of blinking going on in Westminster.

Kermit.de.frog

Daily Mail tomorrow saying Geoffrey Cox will resign if Boris Johnson does not ask for an extension.

Also seen this snippet in the Daily Mail article

And yesterday, Britain’s former EU Commissioner Lord Hill said that the major roadblock to a deal was Dublin and compromise before the end of the month was a ‘stretch’. The Brussels expert told the BBC: ‘I spoke to an EU ambassador who said: “We don’t understand what the backstop is, we don’t care about the backstop, we would be perfectly happy for the Irish to drop it, but so long as they want it, we’re with the Irish,” and that’s the conundrum.’

But I thought Ireland was a patsy for Brussels?

Also...

Downing Street said Mr Johnson will ‘continue to hit the phones’ over the coming days and ‘remains open to meetings with EU leaders’. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will travel to the Netherlands for talks later today. Mr Johnson’s chief negotiator David Frost is expected to return to Brussels tomorrow and his chief of staff, Sir Edward Lister, will travel to Dublin to try to persuade the Irish Government to drop their opposition.

maebee

Ludo wrote: »

GAWD...didn't even think of that. Assumed he would go to London after BJ came to Dublin last time but yeah...not a good historical look to go to London now.

I doubt that Leo will go to London. it would look like he was looking for something from Boris. As we all know, it's Boris who is looking for something so Boris will be travelling.

threeball

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

Isn't that exactly what Johnson wants. If there's no extension it's a default no deal so the hard line Tories get what they want and the EU are the bad boys.

In a crash out scenario post 31st, Blame the Eu has a very limited shelf life. Pun intended.
When job losses food shortages and rocketing prices hit home for the entire population of U.K. not just the rabid brexiters, media and public anger will switch their focus to Westminster and all involved.
And following from that back to the table in a far weaker position and swallowing the WA like it or not.

Boris and his buddies won't give a flying f#@k at that stage. They'll have their money made. Any which way this will end up back on westministers lap anyway.

reslfj

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's kind of ironic that 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is turning out to be much more appropriate to us than the UK.

And even more appropriate for the continental EU27 countries.

The raw facts are that a 'No Deal' will harm EU26 countries only a little and for a fairly short period of time. Some EU26 countries will even benefit from production being moved out of the UK (e.g. auto, auto parts).

A 'No Deal' will effectively 'kill' the UK economy as auto can't survive the 10% tariff into the EU27, farm export of lamb, beef and cheese not tariffs of 30-40-50% or more and the export of fish will be severely limited by on average 11.4% tariff.

On top of the tariffs will come all the Non Tariff Barriers - paperwork, errors in paperwork, delays at borders and goods arriving at JIT production, etc. etc.

In 9 months time UK long haul lorries can't drive into the EU27, in 12 months planes can't land in EU27 anymore.... unless the UK ratifies the core text of the WA - EU27+UK citizens rights, the money and the backstop (in all UK or Irish Sea version).

Lars

MrMusician18

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Why are mainland France and Corsica shown in two distinct colours and why is Malta not colourized?

It's a great example of a misleading graphic. The colours are banded in 0.5% until the upper band which is 2.5-9.6%

Stop moaning ffs

threeball wrote: »

Boris and his buddies won't give a flying f#@k at that stage. They'll have their money made. Any which way this will end up back on westministers lap anyway.

That’s the toxic truth and heart of it. That has been revealed but not landed with regular people.
Boris’ backers have him there to make billions off this. They have funded and bet on it it failing.

Hope to god this comes to the fore and is investigated at some stage near

Atlantic Dawn

I still can't believe how well the EU are treating Ireland, I was expecting us to be stabbed in the back a long time ago.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Mail tomorrow saying Geoffrey Cox will resign if Boris Johnson does not ask for an extension.

Also seen this snippet in the Daily Mail article

And yesterday, Britain’s former EU Commissioner Lord Hill said that the major roadblock to a deal was Dublin and compromise before the end of the month was a ‘stretch’. The Brussels expert told the BBC: ‘I spoke to an EU ambassador who said: “We don’t understand what the backstop is, we don’t care about the backstop, we would be perfectly happy for the Irish to drop it, but so long as they want it, we’re with the Irish,” and that’s the conundrum.’

But I thought Ireland was a patsy for Brussels?

I'd be very surprised if an EU ambassador said that. Makes no sense that they wouldn't know what the backstop was or was for. Even at the very basic level, it's perfectly clear what it's about. Like an EU ambassador wouldn't understand what open borders are like. I'd be more inclined to believe it was Daily Mail making stuff up again.

Kermit.de.frog

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if an EU ambassador said that. Makes no sense that they wouldn't know what the backstop was or was for. Even at the very basic level, it's perfectly clear what it's about. Like an EU ambassador wouldn't understand what open borders are like. I'd be more inclined to believe it was Daily Mail making stuff up again.

It says he told the BBC

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's a great example of a misleading graphic. The colours are banded in 0.5% until the upper band which is 2.5-9.6%

Yeah. I've seen that one before and that was the first thing that struck me. That it could be weighted to distinguish so granularly at the lower end and so coarsely at the end that matters.

threeball

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't believe how well the EU are treating Ireland, I was expecting us to be stabbed in the back a long time ago.

This is in their interest too. You either have unity or you have no union. On top of that there's no way they want the UK undercutting member nations whilst getting the benefits of favourable trade terms. That can not and will not happen.

The Brits are done for. Their superiority complex is preventing them from seeing the hard facts.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It says he told the BBC

Yeah, fair enough. Still hearsay though. Just doesn't make sense, these ambassadors are usually very well briefed.

maebee

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't believe how well the EU are treating Ireland, I was expecting us to be stabbed in the back a long time ago.

With respect, why would a club stab in the back a fully committed member?

Headshot

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't believe how well the EU are treating Ireland, I was expecting us to be stabbed in the back a long time ago.

I wasn't.

This is what being part of something collectivity means, we go beyond the call to support members and have their back.

If EU throw Ireland under the bus it would be the end of the EU as all the small countries (especially eastern Europeans) would start asking "will you have my back if so Russia starts invading" or in Spains case rejecting Catalan independence

maebee

Back in the day :-

Boris Johnson: "There is no plan for no deal because we are going to get a great deal"

Conservative MP Liam Fox "The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history"

Former UKIP Leader Paul Nuttal: "It will be so easy to negotiate a trade deal, and of course, it's in the European Union's interest, just as it is in ours"

Former UKIP Leader Gerard Batten "A trade deal with the EU could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee"

Former UKIP MP Douglas Carswell: "I think free trade would be relatively straightforward between the UK and America"

Nigel Farage: Jan 2018 - "I'm reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum"

54and56

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I take it Boris will be summoned to Dublin again? We can't be seen going over there anymore :pac:

Na, the last meeting was about first impression optics. Once BoJo blinked and came to Dublin it doesn't really matter where future meetings are held as long as it's not all one way traffic.

In the current circumstances it makes sense for everyone for Leo to go to London. He's not going there as some sortt of weak suplicant begging for a deal. He's going to march straight into the HQ of the ERG nutjobs, look them in the eye and calmly tell them there are no circumstances where the Irish govt will accept any proposed deal which includes anything resembling a hard border or impediments to all Island trade. Brexit is a British initiative and we're not facilitating a Brexit dilutes or threatens to dilute the GFA.

If it's a choice between a deal which threatens the GFA or a No Deal Brexit we'll live with the latter until the UK sees sense and comes crawling back looking for a deal as a 3rd country.

When delivering bad news you need to have the balls to look the other person in the eye when doing so and to do so on their patch only adds to the credibility of the message being delivered.

MrMusician18

maebee wrote: »

With respect, why would a club stab in the back a fully committed member?

That wasn't necessarily a given. One only has to look at migration and debt crises to see that sometimes solidarity can be in short supply.

The solidarity Ireland has built on this issue is in no small part due to the work of the diplomatic service.

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if an EU ambassador said that. Makes no sense that they wouldn't know what the backstop was or was for.

He's a Tory lord AFAIK so I'm sure there's some motive there

Meanwhile Mark Durkan, someone who knows just a little bit about the GFA being one of the architects, absolutely roasts and fillets the Johnson plan, and also previous UK government's non committal to some parts of it, as well as the hypocrisy of the DUP. Well worth a read.
[url]

https://twitter.com/markdurkan/status/1180563224674131969?s=19[/url]

Imreoir2

threeball wrote: »

This is in their interest too. You either have unity or you have no union. On top of that there's no way they want the UK undercutting member nations whilst getting the benefits of favourable trade terms. That can not and will not happen.

The border question is the only issue stopping the EU leaning heavily on the UK in trade talks. If the border issue was still open, the UK could hold it hostage in any trade talks. It is only to the EUs advantage to settle it now, knowing that no matter how bad the future deal is for the UK they can only take it or leave it, they can't use the border as leverage.

If the UK makes the mistake of going for no-deal, they will already have lost their leverage and can't threathen a hard border as it will already be a fact on the ground, with their own fingerprints all over it.

CelticRambler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

fash wrote: »

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1180552966190895109

Sometimes cryptic, but an interesting tweeter, this is an interesting piece of information on the CTA and the memorandum of understanding that the UK recently signed in relation thereto

I said this months a go that this would be Britain's last card. People did not believe me then but I still expect a threat to come in this direction.

I don't think the CTA matters all that much nowadays anyway. May as well join schengen.

Maybe worth remembering that the UK proposed effectively scrapping the CTA in their Borders, Citizenship and Immigration Bill 2009. Ultimately, the proposition had to be revised because one section of the community in one of the constituent countries of the UK feared that they would be asked to show their passports when crossing the Irish Sea, something that would have made them feel less British than the British with whom they identify ... That tail has been wagging the dog of British politics for a long time. :pac:

Stop moaning ffs

CelticRambler wrote: »

Maybe worth remembering that the UK proposed effectively scrapping the CTA in their Borders, Citizenship and Immigration Bill 2009. Ultimately, the proposition had to be revised because one section of the community in one of the constituent countries of the UK feared that they would be asked to show their passports when crossing the Irish Sea, something that would have made them feel less British than the British with whom they identify ... That tail has been wagging the dog of British politics for a long time. :pac:

That’s all kinds of bitterly delicious. Didn’t know that happened. Thanks.

Mr.Nice Guy

The high horse brigade wrote: »

We should just let them leave without a deal. They'll be back within a week grovelling and we'll insist on the withdrawal agreement

I keep hearing this said and I think it's a misguided assumption.

Whether we like it or not, most Brexiters perceive Brexit as their version of an independence struggle. And if we look at our own history, whenever Ireland suffered economic hardship in the early decades of independence it did not result in the Irish electorate demanding policy changes from those in charge. On the contrary, when de Valera went through the economic war with Britain in the 30s, and resisted calls from the UK and US to break the neutrality stance during WW2, far from it harming his popularity with the public, it actually greatly increased it - despite both being positions which resulted in economic difficulty for people.

The idea that Brexiters, many of whom like Mark Francois are invested in a WW2-style fantasy of Britain vs the baddies of Europe, are going to suddenly say in the face of economic difficulty, 'I got this all wrong. I'm going to now lobby the government to do a u-turn' I think is way off the mark. Those who were for Brexit will continue to be for it in a No Deal scenaro. Perhaps they will be even more fanatical about it. The pro-Remain camp imo are more likely to question what they will do next because in a No Deal scenario, you'll now have a split between those who presumably redefine themselves as 'Rejoiners' - beginning a campaign of rejoining the EU - and those who become so disillusioned and fed up that they were unable to prevent Brexit happening that they just disengage completely. The Scots meanwhile will likely mould their anger into renewed calls for independence, which would split them off on to a different path from those in England who wish to be part of the EU.

With all this going on in a divided UK, under their FPTP system, as long as Johnson retains the Brexiter support and support for Corbyn remains low, Johnson may well be able to ride out the economic difficulties as he lives out his Churchillian fantasy. Philippe Lamberts hit the nail on the head a few days ago when he described Johnson's mindset:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179875679761920000

Don't underestimate the millions of British that will lap this up. I don't buy this notion that the British public will be begging for a rethink shortly afterwards. On the contrary, attitudes may even harden if Johnson is successful in portraying the EU as a vindictive and intransigent bully. I wouldn't hold my breath on the UK media challenging such a narrative - many of them will be complicit in writing it.

From our point of view, if the British public enthusiastically embraces a No Deal policy via a general election, and Johnson wins a strong majority, there is little prospect of Ireland avoiding checks any time soon. I suspect in such a No Deal scenario we'd be looking at years of a painful stalemate, with Anglo-Irish relations reaching lows not seen in modern times.

In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.

CelticRambler

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s all kinds of bitterly delicious. Didn’t know that happened. Thanks.

You're welcome. Read more about it here (pp219-220) You might recognise the names of some of the vocal opponents!

The chapter concludes with a lovely foreshadowing of potential problems should the UK seek to define its sovereignty more precisely in the future:

This British border within the UK ... is problematic for the idea of a UK border that is coterminous with the UK state. These factors support Rose's claim that Great Britain is the de facto state and its borders are "fuzzy".

volchitsa

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.

You say that like it's a bad thing?

CelticRambler

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I keep hearing this said and I think it's a misguided assumption.

Whether we like it or not, most Brexiters perceive Brexit as their version of an independence struggle.

...

In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.

Border polls, plural - one for each of the three subordinate countries in the no-longer United Kingdom, each of which will rejoin the EU in due course. But for all the reasons you outline, we are probably looking at an independent, isolated, inward-looking England for decades to come.

It would be indescribably ironic if Johnson's absolute determination to gamble a No Deal, crash-out Brexit on the "undemocratic backstop" Irish Border eventually resulted in two UK-EU borders on the island of Great Britain.

fash

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't believe how well the EU are treating Ireland, I was expecting us to be stabbed in the back a long time ago.

If you think about it, you'll understand why the EU was always bound to treat Ireland well. The EU mostly consists of small countries who often must vote unanimously and often must trust the EU. The EU is and sees itself as an organisation for the furtherance of peace, democracy and human rights - a peace project - a model for Star Trek's Federation if you will. It would be the end of the EU for it to go against the wishes of Ireland on this.