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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)
Comments
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I disagree: 1. The migration is is not an EU competence. The EU can do nothing about it. It is for member states to deal with.MrMusician18 wrote: »
That wasn't necessarily a given. One only has to look at migration and debt crises to see that sometimes solidarity can be in short supply.With respect, why would a club stab in the back a fully committed member?
The solidarity Ireland has built on this issue is in no small part due to the work of the diplomatic service.
2. There was solidarity in relation to debt- where there was reasonable cooperation with the EU. Don't forget Ireland did a solo run which was likely to destabilise other EU countries and only informed the EU afterwards. Afterwards the EU changed the rules so no-one could do that again.
Furthermore, the EU (by design of its members who wanted to retain sovereignty) has only very limited competence in relation to debt relief.
Read here for example: https://voxeu.org/article/maastricht-flaws-and-remedies0 -
i kinda agree. What is an open issue for me is how the EU uses its unilateral measures around airplanes flying, Euratom, truck driver licencing etc.Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »The high horse brigade wrote: »We should just let them leave without a deal. They'll be back within a week grovelling and we'll insist on the withdrawal agreement
I keep hearing this said and I think it's a misguided assumption.
Whether we like it or not, most Brexiters perceive Brexit as their version of an independence struggle. And if we look at our own history, whenever Ireland suffered economic hardship in the early decades of independence it did not result in the Irish electorate demanding policy changes from those in charge. On the contrary, when de Valera went through the economic war with Britain in the 30s, and resisted calls from the UK and US to break the neutrality stance during WW2, far from it harming his popularity with the public, it actually greatly increased it - despite both being positions which resulted in economic difficulty for people.
The idea that Brexiters, many of whom like Mark Francois are invested in a WW2-style fantasy of Britain vs the baddies of Europe, are going to suddenly say in the face of economic difficulty, 'I got this all wrong. I'm going to now lobby the government to do a u-turn' I think is way off the mark. Those who were for Brexit will continue to be for it in a No Deal scenaro. Perhaps they will be even more fanatical about it. The pro-Remain camp imo are more likely to question what they will do next because in a No Deal scenario, you'll now have a split between those who presumably redefine themselves as 'Rejoiners' - beginning a campaign of rejoining the EU - and those who become so disillusioned and fed up that they were unable to prevent Brexit happening that they just disengage completely. The Scots meanwhile will likely mould their anger into renewed calls for independence, which would split them off on to a different path from those in England who wish to be part of the EU.
With all this going on in a divided UK, under their FPTP system, as long as Johnson retains the Brexiter support and support for Corbyn remains low, Johnson may well be able to ride out the economic difficulties as he lives out his Churchillian fantasy. Philippe Lamberts hit the nail on the head a few days ago when he described Johnson's mindset:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179875679761920000
Don't underestimate the millions of British that will lap this up. I don't buy this notion that the British public will be begging for a rethink shortly afterwards. On the contrary, attitudes may even harden if Johnson is successful in portraying the EU as a vindictive and intransigent bully. I wouldn't hold my breath on the UK media challenging such a narrative - many of them will be complicit in writing it.
From our point of view, if the British public enthusiastically embraces a No Deal policy via a general election, and Johnson wins a strong majority, there is little prospect of Ireland avoiding checks any time soon. I suspect in such a No Deal scenario we'd be looking at years of a painful stalemate, with Anglo-Irish relations reaching lows not seen in modern times.
In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.
1. It is not clear to me how many people are politically engaged. Like many cults who hit up against reality, those who have psychologically strongly invested in brexitism will stick to their ideology even when reality goes askew for cognitive dissonance reasons. The first question is how many are that invested? Those on the edges will return to reality rather than stick with brexitism. Remainers, soft brexiters, Labour, Scotland etc will already blame the government. So on balance I think the brexiters will start to lose the narrative - however it will become more frenzied.
2. There is a question of how long Johnson can brazen things out. From my perspective, under the UK parliamentary system he can brazen it out effectively for 5 years assuming he gets a reasonable majority in the upcoming election.
3. The EU has a lot of unilateral measures in relation to flights etc- which it could use to bring the UK to its knees quickly. It will be interesting to see how it will use these. I am thinking it won't be very strongly?
I am personally thinking that a no deal situation could last until there is a subsequent change of government or until the breakup of the UK. I don't foresee the UK surviving as an entity for more than 10 years in a no deal situation. Nevertheless, I do think we need to not be deluded in thinking a no deal will be a 6 month affair- on this I accept what Sir Ivan Rogers says. However for its survival (if indeed it does survive) the UK will need to deal with the EU eventually.0 -
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »I keep hearing this said and I think it's a misguided assumption.
Whether we like it or not, most Brexiters perceive Brexit as their version of an independence struggle. And if we look at our own history, whenever Ireland suffered economic hardship in the early decades of independence it did not result in the Irish electorate demanding policy changes from those in charge. On the contrary, when de Valera went through the economic war with Britain in the 30s, and resisted calls from the UK and US to break the neutrality stance during WW2, far from it harming his popularity with the public, it actually greatly increased it - despite both being positions which resulted in economic difficulty for people.
The idea that Brexiters, many of whom like Mark Francois are invested in a WW2-style fantasy of Britain vs the baddies of Europe, are going to suddenly say in the face of economic difficulty, 'I got this all wrong. I'm going to now lobby the government to do a u-turn' I think is way off the mark. Those who were for Brexit will continue to be for it in a No Deal scenaro. Perhaps they will be even more fanatical about it. The pro-Remain camp imo are more likely to question what they will do next because in a No Deal scenario, you'll now have a split between those who presumably redefine themselves as 'Rejoiners' - beginning a campaign of rejoining the EU - and those who become so disillusioned and fed up that they were unable to prevent Brexit happening that they just disengage completely. The Scots meanwhile will likely mould their anger into renewed calls for independence, which would split them off on to a different path from those in England who wish to be part of the EU.
With all this going on in a divided UK, under their FPTP system, as long as Johnson retains the Brexiter support and support for Corbyn remains low, Johnson may well be able to ride out the economic difficulties as he lives out his Churchillian fantasy. Philippe Lamberts hit the nail on the head a few days ago when he described Johnson's mindset:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179875679761920000
Don't underestimate the millions of British that will lap this up. I don't buy this notion that the British public will be begging for a rethink shortly afterwards. On the contrary, attitudes may even harden if Johnson is successful in portraying the EU as a vindictive and intransigent bully. I wouldn't hold my breath on the UK media challenging such a narrative - many of them will be complicit in writing it.
From our point of view, if the British public enthusiastically embraces a No Deal policy via a general election, and Johnson wins a strong majority, there is little prospect of Ireland avoiding checks any time soon. I suspect in such a No Deal scenario we'd be looking at years of a painful stalemate, with Anglo-Irish relations reaching lows not seen in modern times.
In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.
Those are some well made points, and could very well be how it plays out. I just don’t see the painful stalemate lasting years though - no food, medicine or ability to travel will focus minds pretty quickly. Obviously that’s slightly exaggerated but the potential consequences are so dire in relative terms for a modern advanced country there’s just no way a sense of stubbornness will get them through it.0 -
It isn't no food etc. It is a period of significant food disruption. The may be no fresh vegetables one week, a run on something some other week- but over a few months that will settle down.Those are some well made points, and could very well be how it plays out. I just don’t see the painful stalemate lasting years though - no food, medicine or ability to travel will focus minds pretty quickly. Obviously that’s slightly exaggerated but the potential consequences are so dire in relative terms for a modern advanced country there’s just no way a sense of stubbornness will get them through it.
Same with medicine.
With a compliant media that can be played off for the true believers as the evil EU bullying the UK.
What will be interesting is what e.g
Strikes in France or port blockages by angry e.g. French fishermen could do to UK supply chains. That could result in significant disruption to the UK. Also interesting is what the EU will do as its no deal plans run out in relation to flights.
For places that don't buy in to the government propaganda - e.g. Scotland, they will however strongly blame government.
However it is really the medium and long term economic damage as businesses depart where it becomes most difficult for government to blame EU. If this happens while there is a global recession making matters worse or where the UK becomes again the sick man of Europe compared to the EU, then people will start asking questions.0 -
I was struck by Michel Barnier's statement: " we can't change what we are" in relation to the no deal blame game preparations. It suggests that the UK is insisting on its "reasonable" demand that the EU make a special case in relation to its NI proposal (i.e. that the UK is sticking to its guns).
It could well be where things break up.
The Guardian: ‘We cannot change what we are’: Michel Barnier stares down Tory threats.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/05/barnier-joins-brexit-blame-game0 -
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MrMusician18 wrote: »That wasn't necessarily a given. One only has to look at migration and debt crises to see that sometimes solidarity can be in short supply.
The solidarity Ireland has built on this issue is in no small part due to the work of the diplomatic service.
I disagree.
It's the integrity of the entire project at stake.
As was the debt crisis.0 -
This is in their interest too. You either have unity or you have no union. On top of that there's no way they want the UK undercutting member nations whilst getting the benefits of favourable trade terms. That can not and will not happen.
The border question is the only issue stopping the EU leaning heavily on the UK in trade talks. If the border issue was still open, the UK could hold it hostage in any trade talks. It is only to the EUs advantage to settle it now, knowing that no matter how bad the future deal is for the UK they can only take it or leave it, they can't use the border as leverage.
If the UK makes the mistake of going for no-deal, they will already have lost their leverage and can't threathen a hard border as it will already be a fact on the ground, with their own fingerprints all over it.
The border issue always had to be resolved before trade talks commenced so it was never going to be available as a stick to beat the EU. The WA couldn't even be ratified without it being resolved. The only reason talks ever commenced on the WA was because Ireland agreed to the British proposed back stop in order for them to begin talks with Europe. In hindsight this was probably a mistake as trusting any British governments word usually is.0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.0 -
Gintonious wrote: »https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1179859826740011013
Another glorious moment captured in the Brexit circus. As David McWilliams has said, the DUP are great at missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Every element of the Northern Irish economy is saying this deal is bad and the most a DUP politician can say is "they're entitled to their opinion". The whole party deserves to be wiped out in the next election.0 -
The border issue always had to be resolved before trade talks commenced so it was never going to be available as a stick to beat the EU. The WA couldn't even be ratified without it being resolved. The only reason talks ever commenced on the WA was because Ireland agreed to the British proposed back stop in order for them to begin talks with Europe. In hindsight this was probably a mistake as trusting any British governments word usually is.
Exactly, and this seems to have been forgotten. The UK have now gone back on their commitment, as such it is not about agreeing a deal but about going back to Phase 1. If the UK want to ditch the backstop, to which Johnson was part of the cabinet that agreed to, then they have effectively gone back on the end of Phase 1.
But as usual the UK seem to think none of that should matter and things should continue on. Which is what they wanted from the very start. They were very unhappy that they had to agree to Phase issue before moving on so clearly they simply lied to get past P1 and get to what they wanted to talk about.0 -
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steddyeddy wrote: »Every element of the Northern Irish economy is saying this deal is bad and the most a DUP politician can say is "they're entitled to their opinion". The whole party deserves to be wiped out in the next election.
But just as the Tories, despite being universally terrible at government, will at least have a shot at getting back in, at most the DUP might lose a seat.
The voters in NI have some serious thinking to do. Clearly GB have little actual care about them, the DUP seemingly more interested in getting close to the Tories rather than looking after the interests of NI.
But nationalist need to reexamine their continued voting for SF. This isn't a call for them to go back on their position of not taking seats, but very clearly the lack of any nationalist voice in HoC is allowing the DUP to take the mantle that they speak for NI.
The simple ability of a SDLP, for example, to make a point of Order each time a DUP MP makes yet another false statement in the HoC would have an effect.
But the voters in NI need to grow up and move on from the historical lines they have.0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
Not a bit. Even Le Pen, and Italian equivalents, have rowed back on their anti EU rhetoric. They may be eejits, but not entirely stupid.0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
No - because both of those countries - alongside others - will also now hold an upper hand over the UK when it comes to things like FDI, jobs and trade.
It's the same error in thinking that the UK are going to realise when they come to sit down with India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US.
They will all seek a FTA that best suits their own interests and will use their comparative size to hold the upper hand.
They might get some support from USA and Russia but only because those two countries would love to see a weakened EU and not out of any act of kindness.
They will not be friends helping out a buddy getting settled into a new house who needs a bit of a dig out getting started, which is how some in the UK are pitching future trade discussions as.0 -
What do you mean by "hard brexit"? A no deal brexit? It would be communicating to other populists " try to bully even a small member of the EU, even if you are big, we will end you".So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
Of note, brexit is the cure to populist anti- EU ism - all populist parties in the EU are no longer talking about leaving the EU- the people see the benefit of the EU and the insanity of leaving.
There is no economic case for brexit and the "what a stupid idea" aspect will become more and more pronounced as the stripping away of rights, lack of economic performance and impoverishment of the less well off becomes more and more obvious.
Aside from that, populists are bad at coordinating - a defining feature is that they care about themselves only. See how nicely Trump treated scotch whisky specifically in relation to the WTO retaliatory tariffs0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
If anything I think it illustrates the issues that being outside the EU brings into sharp focus. In my opinion it makes the breakup less likely and with the main agitator for break up gone the likelihood is greatly reduced0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
I don't see a snowballs chance in hell that Le Pen will ever lead France.0 -
So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
Not at all.
It will result in the break up of the UK and has only served to strengthen the EU actually warning off various populists on spouting exit EU mantra , something which would have been ubiquitous previously.
They've done quite literally the opposite of what the Tories ever imagined.
Hilarious when you think on it for a moment0 -
Meanwhile Mark Durkan, someone who knows just a little bit about the GFA being one of the architects, absolutely roasts and fillets the Johnson plan, and also previous UK government's non committal to some parts of it, as well as the hypocrisy of the DUP. Well worth a read.
[url]
Here's the threadreader version of the thread by Mark Durkan:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1180563224674131969.html
A bit of a read but very interesting esp. to those of us not schooled in the details of the GFA.0 -
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »I keep hearing this said and I think it's a misguided assumption.
Whether we like it or not, most Brexiters perceive Brexit as their version of an independence struggle. And if we look at our own history, whenever Ireland suffered economic hardship in the early decades of independence it did not result in the Irish electorate demanding policy changes from those in charge. On the contrary, when de Valera went through the economic war with Britain in the 30s, and resisted calls from the UK and US to break the neutrality stance during WW2, far from it harming his popularity with the public, it actually greatly increased it - despite both being positions which resulted in economic difficulty for people.
The idea that Brexiters, many of whom like Mark Francois are invested in a WW2-style fantasy of Britain vs the baddies of Europe, are going to suddenly say in the face of economic difficulty, 'I got this all wrong. I'm going to now lobby the government to do a u-turn' I think is way off the mark. Those who were for Brexit will continue to be for it in a No Deal scenaro. Perhaps they will be even more fanatical about it. The pro-Remain camp imo are more likely to question what they will do next because in a No Deal scenario, you'll now have a split between those who presumably redefine themselves as 'Rejoiners' - beginning a campaign of rejoining the EU - and those who become so disillusioned and fed up that they were unable to prevent Brexit happening that they just disengage completely. The Scots meanwhile will likely mould their anger into renewed calls for independence, which would split them off on to a different path from those in England who wish to be part of the EU.
With all this going on in a divided UK, under their FPTP system, as long as Johnson retains the Brexiter support and support for Corbyn remains low, Johnson may well be able to ride out the economic difficulties as he lives out his Churchillian fantasy. Philippe Lamberts hit the nail on the head a few days ago when he described Johnson's mindset:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1179875679761920000
Don't underestimate the millions of British that will lap this up. I don't buy this notion that the British public will be begging for a rethink shortly afterwards. On the contrary, attitudes may even harden if Johnson is successful in portraying the EU as a vindictive and intransigent bully. I wouldn't hold my breath on the UK media challenging such a narrative - many of them will be complicit in writing it.
From our point of view, if the British public enthusiastically embraces a No Deal policy via a general election, and Johnson wins a strong majority, there is little prospect of Ireland avoiding checks any time soon. I suspect in such a No Deal scenario we'd be looking at years of a painful stalemate, with Anglo-Irish relations reaching lows not seen in modern times.
In such a scenario we probably cross the rubicon to where we're no longer talking about a backstop to solve the checks issue - we're talking about a border poll.
If that is the will of the British people and it is continuously confirmed by the ballot box then so be it. At least we have clarity I don’t think too many people in this country would argue with that if it has a strong mandate.
It’s something we have to accept and adopt to.
It would be possibly the biggest challenge of this generation but there are worse challenges.0 -
No.So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The evidence of the past 3+ years, is that Brexit has reinforced the EU27 unity and cohesion like no other political event before -not even the 2008 GFC- and that a hard Brexit would not only be the beginning of the end of the UK as we know it (my own predictions in that respect, are Scotland out and a border poll in Ireland by end 2021), but reinforce this fresh impetus lifting the European project still further.
The UK had strong relationships with a lot of other countries, European and not.The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
They've spent the last 3+ years burning every last one of these bridges to cinders. Johnson is currently nuking from orbit -again- to make sure.
N-th bit of evidence of the fact: what with Cyprus being one of these EU27 countries with a particularly long and close relationship with the UK, I'm told the Cypriot president refused outright to meet Barclay at the weekend.
If you should like to research the matter a bit, you will witness that the political relevance of the hard right has been (free-)falling down in polls the length and breadth of Europe over the same period. Le Pen in France, Baudet in NL, the Freedom Party in Austria, La Liga in Italy...they're all haemorrhaging votes in domestic elections 'that matter' (domestic general elections).
That's not me dismissing them outright, mind: they should be constantly fought, back into their boxes, eventually back into the political nothingness which people's gullibility and/or ignorance should never have allowed them to leave.
But politically -and in a pan-European context, geopolitically- they're spent by now, and broadly irrelevant. Thankfully.0 -
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Was listening to some James O'Brien from a few weeks ago, wherein he was asking the question as to why, after 3 years, nobody is talking about any benefits.
I didn't bother to hang around to listen to the callers, but it got me thinking.
At this stage you never hear anyone talking about the sunny uplands or any benefits. The main 'reason' seems to be the 'will of the people' and the potential threat to democracy that not getting brexit done will have (although why this isn't just called out as project fear is weird).0 -
I don’t understand why the DUP haven’t been thrown under the bus yet?
Surely a NI-only backstop is the obvious solution here.0 -
Was listening to some James O'Brien from a few weeks ago, wherein he was asking the question as to why, after 3 years, nobody is talking about any benefits.
I didn't bother to hand around to listen to the callers, but it got me thinking.
At this stage you never hear anyone talking about the sunny uplands or any benefits. The main 'reason' seems to be the 'will of the people' and the potential threat to democracy that not getting brexit done will have (although why this isn't just called out as project fear is weird).
Like religion - sunny uplands after you die. UK's off to the Elysian fields.0 -
The benefit is the opportunity of picking fruit when you're a pensioner at below minimum wage for the health benefit of good honest outdoor work.0
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Was listening to some James O'Brien from a few weeks ago, wherein he was asking the question as to why, after 3 years, nobody is talking about any benefits.
I didn't bother to hand around to listen to the callers, but it got me thinking.
At this stage you never hear anyone talking about the sunny uplands or any benefits. The main 'reason' seems to be the 'will of the people' and the potential threat to democracy that not getting brexit done will have (although why this isn't just called out as project fear is weird).
Boris is parroting this line that EU membership is costing a billion pounds per day or is it per week I’m not sure. My brain obviously didn’t absorb it.
Just sounds completely spurious anyway.
But that is the only benefit he currently seems to be pushing anyway.0 -
Nope.So none of you see a hard Brexit as the beginning of the end of the EU?
The UK have a lot of strong relationships with other European countries. If you were to get a Le Pen led France and Baudet in the Netherlands do you not see a major political change in Europe? Like these things seem very likely to happen.
Only net contributor Countries would be the ones with a (remote) interest in leaving.
Why those that are heavily subsidised (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria...), want to ever leave ?
As for France and the Netherlands,
Although leaving would be easier border-wise - there will be no violence if they put up a border with Belgium, Germany...
both are in the Euro and would be near to impossible leaving that - after the precedent of Greece attempting to do so.0 -
Probably not Farage but could see Jacob Rees-Mogg !So Bobby Friedman on the Sky News Press Preview agrees with a report in the Telegraph that Boris is proposing to nominate Farage as an EU commissioner. The tactic is to stymie any progress on the EU agreeing a budget until Ireland caves in on the border. This is sinking to a new low0 -
I don’t understand why the DUP haven’t been thrown under the bus yet?
Surely a NI-only backstop is the obvious solution here.
Because they're terrified that Scotland will then want the same deal, eventually leading to independence and loss of oil and gas fields as well as most of the UKs fishing waters. I think this is the likely outcome in any case.0 -
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In principle, I agree that there is nothing to be gained by making travel hard for the Brits post Brexit (other than requiring them to apply for visa waivers), as it's only with the opportunity to compare and contrast that they might acknowledge the advantages of being (having been) part of the EU.correct horse battery staple wrote: »But we must not restrict their travel. Those people who travel to Europe will see economies growing year after year while theirs be stuck in duldrums.
But ... we've all seen the interviews with Brexiters who know that their personal lifestyle and the very existence of their business is threatened by Brexit, yet they're proud of voting Leave and say they would do so again. These people will fill in their visa waiver form, pay the fee and have their holiday in Spain, or support their team when playing in Europe, or go on a stag night; then return to Brexit-Britain and brag about how "nothing's changed".0
This discussion has been closed.
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