Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

So Johnson is very much signalling that this 'deal' is just a starting point and he is open to further discussions.

That is quite a difference from what they were saying only a few days ago.

So having got the ERG and DUP to agree to a 'deal' which contained many of the issues they claimed to be against (NI would still be under the remit of the ECJ for example) , how far do you think he will be able to move and still keep them on board?

darem93

Forty Seven wrote: »

Don't bet on it. Plenty of us unionists still around. Just because the indi campaign is active doesn't make it a done deal. Most of them are as bad as the worst of the leavers. No idea why they want indi. No idea what it will cost. Just an historical hatred of the English.

This is so untrue. There were plenty of St. George's Crosses at the march in Edinburgh yesterday and there are lots of campaign groups from England who are pro-independence.

I was born in England, love visiting my family there and genuinely think it is a fantastic country, but I wouldn't for one minute want us here in Ireland to ever be ruled by Westminster again.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

The EU has so far unequivocally backed Ireland's position on not wanting a hard border for over 2 years at this stage. There isn't even the smallest crack that they will deviate from this position. They have to be commended.

So many Brexit supporters on Twitter (not the greatest source) were saying how Ireland owed Britain because of the billions in loans given during the recession that helped save our economy. Firstly, Britain gave that loan out of self interest. Secondly, the loan is payed back with the interest on top. That was no 'favour' to us.

Outside of any principled or political arguments. The facts are that Ireland's border counties are the poorest in the country. That's with a soft border. Customs posts will deprive those areas even more. Any Irish government or individual that is okay with a hard border can't be acting in good faith.

threeball

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

The EU has so far unequivocally backed Ireland's position on not wanting a hard border for over 2 years at this stage. There isn't even the smallest crack that they will deviate from this position. They have to be commended.

So many Brexit supporters on Twitter (not the greatest source) were saying how Ireland owed Britain because of the billions in loans given during the recession that helped save our economy. Firstly, Britain gave that loan out of self interest. Secondly, the loan is payed back with the interest on top. That was no 'favour' to us.

Outside of any principled or political arguments. The facts are that Ireland's border counties are the poorest in the country. That's with a soft border. Customs posts will deprive those areas even more. Any Irish government or individual that is okay with a hard border can't be acting in good faith.

The absolute idiocy of the people who think Ireland owes England anything is astounding. We'll gloss over 800yrs of invasion, pillaging, genocide, plantation, division, collusion and head straight to a poxy loan that's been repaid with interest.

Capt'n Midnight

Just an aside on shortages.

If the UK block French access to fishing grounds or the fishermen come out in sympathy with whoever the queues in Dover could get very interesting very quickly.

French fishermen threaten to blockade UK exports so no fish can enter EU after no‑deal Brexit

Committee chairman Olivier Lepretre said: “If there is a hard Brexit, I can assure you that not a single kilo of seafood or fish from Britain will get into France.

“We would set up barricades. All the fishermen along the northern French coast will tell you the same thing.

In the past French fishermen have blockaded ferry ports.

Infini

Forty Seven wrote: »

The SNP have been pushing for independence for my lifetime. The leadership care not a jot who it harms, only who it benefits. They have pushed for it right through periods of massive prosperity. Anyone arguing 'but it's different now' is surely having their cake and eating it too.

The way this should be looked at is that the SNP have had that as a policy but of course to achieve it they need tbe support of the public. It should also be said that there wouldnt be a 2nd indyref in the future if England had lived up to its commitments in the first ref and not pursuer such a bellended policy that utterly undermines those who voted remain with the UK.

The thing is right now because of English failure politics the SNP now have a more legitimate reason to get support for Independence. One has to look now at wether its worth being dragged out of the EU by a broken England or deciding now is the time to cut the toxicity of the south away and go their own way. If anything England has abandoned scotland and they owe them nothing and would be well in their right to walk.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Right:

Forty Seven wrote: »

Who is stockpiling? The issue is well known here <in Great Britain> where we have the same shortages. You think hrt is our priority when stockpiling drugs? It's a non essential treatment. I'll listen when we have life saving drugs in short supply but this is a non starter. Nobody anywhere, not even women's groups, menopause charities, manufacturers, government or media has suggested this is a brexit issue so let's put the nonsense to bed right there shall we?

Let's move on.

Forty Seven

Infini wrote: »

The way this should be looked at is that the SNP have had that as a policy but of course to achieve it they need tbe support of the public. It should also be said that there wouldnt be a 2nd indyref in the future if England had lived up to its commitments in the first ref and not pursuer such a bellended policy that utterly undermines those who voted remain with the UK.

The thing is right now because of English failure politics the SNP now have a more legitimate reason to get support for Independence. One has to look now at wether its worth being dragged out of the EU by a broken England or deciding now is the time to cut the toxicity of the south away and go their own way. If anything England has abandoned scotland and they owe them nothing and would be well in their right to walk.

I agree with the premise of your thinking. I have given this much thought myself. It affects me directly but I cannot see how Scotland could come out of it well. If we leave the union we will have years of untangling, recession etc just to have a hostile nation to the south blocking our trade route with the EU, an entity they have also fallen out with. England is a large market for Scottish goods and services in the case of brexit, not so much in the transition period. Outside of the EU and outside of the union we are crippled economically. I also disagree with a lot of SNP policies and they have the majority. There is also the nuclear deterrent issue and I don't believe we could fulfill the requirements to join the Euro after Brexit so we are left with what currency? What borrowing rates will we have during transition while we are in crisis economically? How do we divide the standing sovereign debt?


There are many unanswered questions. Lots of promises and theories but I'm not yet convinced. Nearly 40% voted leave in Scotland, it's not as simple as all of us being remainers and getting shafted by England. That's part of being in a union. You take the bad with the good. That's democracy.

Edit. I was writing this as the pruning happened, didn't see the mod note.

liamtech

Forty Seven wrote: »

I agree with the premise of your thinking. I have given this much thought myself. It affects me directly but I cannot see how Scotland could come out of it well. If we leave the union we will have years of untangling, recession etc just to have a hostile nation to the south blocking our trade route with the EU, an entity they have also fallen out with. England is a large market for Scottish goods and services in the case of brexit, not so much in the transition period. Outside of the EU and outside of the union we are crippled economically. I also disagree with a lot of SNP policies and they have the majority. There is also the nuclear deterrent issue and I don't believe we could fulfill the requirements to join the Euro after Brexit so we are left with what currency? What borrowing rates will we have during transition while we are in crisis economically? How do we divide the standing sovereign debt?


There are many unanswered questions. Lots of promises and theories but I'm not yet convinced. Nearly 40% voted leave in Scotland, it's not as simple as all of us being remainers and getting shafted by England. That's part of being in a union. You take the bad with the good. That's democracy.

Why do you believe Scotland has fallen out with the EU? or did i read you correctly?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49690513

I think the election will decide the issue on Scotland and a possible second IndyRef -

• One of the big reasons for the failure of IndyRef 1 was EU membership - the fact it would be lost - and yet now it is being lost, arguably ads a result of English Nationalism
• Cameron Admitting that he asked the Palace to intervene, and the Queen somewhat obliged with her comment, as covered, will have turned some heads
• If SNP wins the majority if not all Scottish seats in the next election (it happened previously as i recall), and probably an overwhelming majority in Scottish Devolved elections then i think the mandate is 100% there for IndyRef2
• And in that case, i think you can bet that European states, including Ireland, will make their opionions known - given what Westminister has said about our Government, i think you could say that we owe them one

IN Any case, i believe Scottish Independence is far more likely than a United Ireland, given the state of militant extremist Unionism, and politics in the north

Stop moaning ffs

Another fact not mentioned, EU couldn’t emit as much as a peep for or against Scottish independence last time nor give any signals to Scotland that it would be accepted into the EU. To do so would have directly attacked one of its own members. The U.K.

Now that the UK is leaving an independent Scotland would be welcomed in no problem. Maybe even fast tracked.

Kermit.de.frog

Scotland leaving would be a huge psychological blow for unionists in the north.

NI would not last much longer afterward I'd say.

jm08

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Italy and Greece were thrown under the bus in the migrant and debt crises respectively.

They were not thrown under the bus. Most EU countries took migrants. The EU has pumped billions into both to help them with it. As for debt crisis. Greece was bailed out. They are just not getting debt relief until they have sorted out the corruption and have actually started collecting taxes to fund their lifestyle.

The idea that union solidarity is both unquestionable and unshakable is a myth that's developed here in the last three years. Solidarity here is cheap, if it were the Balkans facing an aggressive Russia, do you think all the EU 27 would be rushing to provide military assistance? Do people think Ireland would send troops?

Well, at the moment, NATO which is comprised of mainly EU countries would provide military assistance. The EU is trying to develop a common defence, so in the future it will be able to defend EU countries. It was interesting that Latvia took refugees and the PM said the reason they did so was in solitarity with other EU countries and the hope that if they have a problem with refugees flooding into Latvia from Ukraine, that EU member states would also help them out.

liamtech

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Another fact not mentioned, EU couldn’t emit as much as a peep for or against Scottish independence last time nor give any signals to Scotland that it would be accepted into the EU. To do so would have directly attacked one of its own members. The U.K.

Now that the UK is leaving an independent Scotland would be welcomed in no problem. Maybe even fast tracked.

Highly likely given that
-the UK has left
-An independent Scotland, having been an EU Member as a component of the UK, will be aligned with EU standards and well up to speed (far more than say North Macedonia etc)
-Its already being hinted at that Scottish EU membership is welcomed - and is not being looked at in the same light as previously (spanish veto, Catalonia etc)

briany

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Scotland leaving would be a huge psychological blow for unionists in the north.

NI would not last much longer afterward I'd say.

I think that in the event of Scotland leaving, Loyalism would cop a renewed siege mentality. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a call for Scottish Loyalists to move to the North in order to tip the demographics. Although in saying that, I wouldn't expect this to amount to more than a relatively small hardcore of headbangers.

Forty Seven

liamtech wrote: »

Why do you believe Scotland has fallen out with the EU? or did i read you correctly?

You have misread. My point being that we will be cut off by England from the <rest of the EU> that they have just fallen out with.

jm08

otnomart wrote: »

Scary thought about pressure on housing, healthcare, education system in Ireland !

Don't think there will be too many coming here - in fact it will probably put off Irish people returning unless they have a good private pension. State pension is about £6000 a year in UK.

lawred2

jm08 wrote: »

Don't think there will be too many coming here - in fact it will probably put off Irish people returning unless they have a good private pension. State pension is about £6000 a year in UK.

Non contributory pension here is near 13k

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

Why do people keep peddling this nonsense?


The EU has thrown nobody under a bus; it has pulled a few members out from under the buses they found for themselves - and suggested how they could avoid doing so in future.

In fact Greece, having created a huge debts all by itself by allowing corruption, nepotism, tax evasion, overspending (e.g. the Olympics), way too low a pension age and far to many employees at publicly owned firms .... - nevertheless got EU help.

Around 2011-13 Greece got its debt to private creditors (banks, financial inst....) cut by 53% and taken over by the ECB (indirectly), the IMF and ...

The debt was then restructured into longer running debt with much lower interest rates.

The EU do give new and less expensive options for growth in all member states, but it can't and won't pay for any overspending or criminal activities in any member state.


Lars

johnnyskeleton

Forty Seven wrote: »

(don't even start:)

Mod note:

Really? Why's it gotta be like that?

If you use a particular turn of phrase without realising that it can cause problems or misunderstandings, that should be a warning to be more precise in future. Using it again is an awful lot like trolling, i.e. using inflammatory language with the purpose of provoking a response from other posters.

Finally warning for you.

jm08

threeball wrote: »

Yes I agree and Scotland would attempt to cut in to the Irish pie of being an English speaking country that adopted the euro. That is possibly a bigger threat to us than brexit.

If they haven't done it up to now, they are not going to do it when they leave the EU. I seem to recall hearing that one of the reasons Amercian countries like Ireland is because they can understand our accents (mostly)! From what I recall, they had a serious problem understanding the Scots and Indians.

fash

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

The EU has so far unequivocally backed Ireland's position on not wanting a hard border for over 2 years at this stage. There isn't even the smallest crack that they will deviate from this position. They have to be commended.

So many Brexit supporters on Twitter (not the greatest source) were saying how Ireland owed Britain because of the billions in loans given during the recession that helped save our economy. Firstly, Britain gave that loan out of self interest. Secondly, the loan is payed back with the interest on top. That was no 'favour' to us.

... And furthermore the UK was the only country to refuse to allow early payment of the loan because they were making so much money on it and the money was the fairly precisely the amount needed to bail out UK banks in Ireland which the UK otherwise would have to bail out had the Irish government not unilaterally undertaken to do so. A rather astonishing tale of "generosity".

Infini

It's paywalled so cant read the full article but apparently John Bercow is being proposed as a caretaker PM in the event of Boris getting the boot.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/john-bercow-proposed-as-prime-minister-of-national-unity-government-k3gtj29fw

Roll on Prime Minister Ordah Ordah I say he would probably be a good candidate to unite the opposition around expecially since he's been keeping things sane as they can be since this whole mess started!

Edit another article from the inews but been apparently being discussed by cross party MP's as Corbyn is too partisan to be able to gain the necessary support in the event the Queen were to sack Boris.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/john-bercow-suggested-caretaker-prime-minister-government-national-unity-644751

<snip>

Water John

Think it more likely that HOC would instruct the Speaker to send the Ext letter to the EU.

jm08

Forty Seven wrote: »

I agree with the premise of your thinking. I have given this much thought myself. It affects me directly but I cannot see how Scotland could come out of it well. If we leave the union we will have years of untangling, recession etc just to have a hostile nation to the south blocking our trade route with the EU, an entity they have also fallen out with. England is a large market for Scottish goods and services in the case of brexit, not so much in the transition period. Outside of the EU and outside of the union we are crippled economically. I also disagree with a lot of SNP policies and they have the majority. There is also the nuclear deterrent issue and I don't believe we could fulfill the requirements to join the Euro after Brexit so we are left with what currency? What borrowing rates will we have during transition while we are in crisis economically? How do we divide the standing sovereign debt?


There are many unanswered questions. Lots of promises and theories but I'm not yet convinced. Nearly 40% voted leave in Scotland, it's not as simple as all of us being remainers and getting shafted by England. That's part of being in a union. You take the bad with the good. That's democracy.

Edit. I was writing this as the pruning happened, didn't see the mod note.

Why do you think England will be hostile to Scotland. They will still want North Sea oil and gas, they will still want to park their nuclear subs in Scotland. Iceland won the Cod Wars because they threatened to expel NATO from Iceland and its waters. The US will put pressure on England to maintain a good relationship with Scotland so that they can continue to keep a sharp eye on Russia from their bases there.

fash

Forty Seven wrote: »

I agree with the premise of your thinking. I have given this much thought myself. It affects me directly but I cannot see how Scotland could come out of it well. If we leave the union we will have years of untangling, recession etc just to have a hostile nation to the south blocking our trade route with the EU, an entity they have also fallen out with. England is a large market for Scottish goods and services in the case of brexit, not so much in the transition period. Outside of the EU and outside of the union we are crippled economically. I also disagree with a lot of SNP policies and they have the majority. There is also the nuclear deterrent issue and I don't believe we could fulfill the requirements to join the Euro after Brexit so we are left with what currency? What borrowing rates will we have during transition while we are in crisis economically? How do we divide the standing sovereign debt?


There are many unanswered questions. Lots of promises and theories but I'm not yet convinced. Nearly 40% voted leave in Scotland, it's not as simple as all of us being remainers and getting shafted by England. That's part of being in a union. You take the bad with the good. That's democracy.

Edit. I was writing this as the pruning happened, didn't see the mod note.

This sounds just like project fear. In reality Scexit would be a careful and meticulous change - not a sudden stop. Scotland will negotiate the terms of a new deal before it starts any legal process to leave the UK.
The existing UK will not be a hostile neighbour blocking trade, it needs Scotland more than Scotland needs it. Scotland holds all of the cards and it will be the easiest trade deal in history.
Etc.

This stuff really just writes itself doesn't it... Seriously, the amount of points that the indyref people can learn from the brexit campaign is going to make a second indyref far more formidable. Lie lie crazy and keep lying. Don't defend your lies just double down etc.

maebee

threeball wrote: »

The absolute idiocy of the people who think Ireland owes England anything is astounding. We'll gloss over 800 yrs of invasion, pillaging, genocide, plantation, division, collusion and head straight to a poxy loan that's been repaid with interest.

Great post threeball. Hope you don't mind if I rob it. I'll be adding in "starvation" to your list.

It is terrible that it's come to this though. Despite all of the above we HAD come a long way in our relations with our former oppressor. I've been away all day and have just heard Steve Baker say "If only the government in Ireland would be reasonable". My head hurts. Does he not understand that Ireland HAS to have the backstop. Does he not understand the GFA and how important it is? Someone needs to tell him (and BoJO) that the hard earned peace in Ireland (opposed by the party propping them up) cannot be compromised by re-creating a border, nay two borders.

briany

jm08 wrote: »

If they haven't done it up to now, they are not going to do it when they leave the EU. I seem to recall hearing that one of the reasons Amercian countries like Ireland is because they can understand our accents (mostly)! From what I recall, they had a serious problem understanding the Scots and Indians.

I think Scotland has largely the same continuum as in Ireland where accents can range from unintelligible to quite plain and clear. Has a bit to do with region, and with age/class. The Scots appear to be a bit proud of how hard they can be to understand sometimes, but when push comes to shove, they'll know they can't be sounding like Rab C. Nesbitt if they want to do smooth international business.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

I think that in the event of Scotland leaving, Loyalism would cop a renewed siege mentality. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a call for Scottish Loyalists to move to the North in order to tip the demographics. Although in saying that, I wouldn't expect this to amount to more than a relatively small hardcore of headbangers.

No mentality will put food on the table, Unionism, especially hardcore Unionism has lost its majority in NI. The future of NI will be decided by the middle ground. Before Brexit the middle ground had no good reason to question the Union, in a no-deal Brexit the middle ground will have every reason to question it hard, and the people trying to answer those questions are the ones responsible for the no-deal Brexit debacle.

Imreoir2

Forty Seven wrote: »

You have misread. My point being that we will be cut off by England from the <rest of the EU> that they have just fallen out with.

Unless England is going to blocade the Scottish coast, then I dont see how Scotland would be cut off from the rest of the EU. They have the EU to their Eaast and West. Correct me if I am wrong, but Scotland does have port facilities in its territory, right?

Not to mention that sealed containers can transit a non-EU members territory without much delay or checks at EU borders, a few minutes extra time at customs on the Scottsh/English border wont have a major impact on Scottish exporters.

Stop moaning ffs

Just on the ‘threats’ earlier by Gove reported in the Times, are we going to see them threaten us with the landbridge of it all? Can they do that?