Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Torsevt

Johnson can change his tune after the election

For now he wants to hoover up all the support for the Tories and get the DUP out of the way

threeball

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49961301

£50bn overspend in the UK budget predicted next year at a time when the fiscal advisory are asking for tax increases. They'll be back in recession by January at this rate

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

She never actually said "we will crush the EU" did she?

How did I miss that?

She never said so in quite those words. But, yeah, that was the gist of it.

The "crush" language comes from the Times front-page headline over a report of a speech she gave in January 2017 (the "Lancaster House Speech"). Most of the speech was devoted to setting out her "Plan for Britain" - a statement of the negotiating priorities of the UK government in the (then, still to commence) Brexit talks.

But she finished with a rather ill-advised rant about why it would be a bad idea for the EU to seek to impose a "punitive deal" on the UK. That would be "an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe". It would "not be the act of a friend". "Britain would not – indeed we could not – accept such an approach." (It was in this section of her speech that she came up with the fatal soundbite that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain".)

The consequences for Europe, she asserted, would be disastrous; "It would mean new barriers to trade with one of the biggest economies in the world. It would jeopardise investments in Britain by EU companies worth more than half a trillion pounds. It would mean a loss of access for European firms to the financial services of the City of London. It would risk exports from the EU to Britain worth around £290 billion every year. And it would disrupt the sophisticated and integrated supply chains upon which many EU companies rely." She continued in this vein at some length. As you can imagine, this delusional bombast went down like a rat sandwich with the EU-27.

But it was well-received by the pro-Brexit press in the UK, which presumably was the intention. The speech had been leaked a couple of days in advance so they could polish their praises for May and her steel and resolution, and the press duly obliged. The Mail ran with "STEEL OF THE NEW IRON LADY", adding that "she put Cameron's feeble negotiations to shame". The Express had "DEAL OR NO DEAL WE WILL LEAVE EU" and the Times gave us "May to EU: give us fair deal or you'll be crushed". And it's the "crush" language that people remember as encapsulating the tone of the speech.

Akrasia

For the past 3 years the UK have been talking up 'no deal' as the nuclear option, their biggest threat and bargaining chip to get the EU to give them a deal.

Now they're changed to the real nuclear option, threatening to stay in the EU and be as hostile and intransigent and disruptive as possible in order to demand a No Deal.

It's always been the biggest flaw in the 'no deal as threat' strategy that, while a British crash out would be harmful, giving them any deal that undermines the integrity of the single market was worse, so the EU, going for the least worst option, would sadly allow the UK to crash out

This is when the UK were trying to get a deal. Now the brextremists are firmly in control and they don't want a deal, they want a crash out, so they have a strategy that is much more likely to work. The strategy that up to now, was never stated publicly because all sensible people realise that the UK needs to be on good terms with the EU if they want to have any chance of developing trade deals in the aftermath of brexit

Now, they have come out and stated that their real threat is that they won't leave, and by staying, they will use all of the rules of the EU to undermine the EU, to block and delay and veto any action, to prevent the budgets from passing, to block trade deals, to refuse to cooperate in the spirit of the Single market and Customs union.

This is the strategy that was always the most likely to succeed in preventing an extension, but the cost is the future relationship between the UK and the EU and if the UK leaves on bad terms, then even the emergency measures agreed between the EU and UK regarding transport and security cooperation could be in jeopardy.

The UK's strategy is to turn itself into a global pariah that no country would be able to do any deals with. And it might just be crazy enough to work

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think what Downing Street was getting at was, if Spain supports an extension, maybe we will get our oranges from Brazil instead. Likewise Olives from Tunisia instead of Italy, Red Bull style drinks from Argentina instead of Austria. etc.

How will they know? The Council only announce a decision, not the individual votes that led to that decision.

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

How will they know? The Council only announce a decision, not the individual votes that led to that decision.

Any extension has to be agreed unamimously. So, if the Council announces a decision to grant the requested extension, we will know there were 27 votes in favour of that decision, and zero votes against.

So what the unnamed Downing St source coughDominicCummingscough is saying is that all 27 will immediately be demoted to last place in the queue of the UK's friends in the EU. Which of course would also be first place in that queue, depending on how you look at it.

Honestly, I don't know which is more depressing; the delusions reflected in this threat, or the total incoherence of it.

fash

lawred2 wrote: »

dePeatrick wrote: »

Theresa May

Not a lot has changed then...

She never actually said "we will crush the EU" did she?

How did I miss that?

Edit: forget what I said, fully answered above

Igotadose

Not surprisingly, Brexiteers are threatening violence to MP's, especially women and minorities. The MP's are carrying panic alarms and installing them in their homes and offices. Definitely not the UK's finest hour.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/08/uk/mp-threats-brexit-intl-gbr/index.html

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

Any extension has to be agreed unamimously. So, if the Council announces a decision to grant the requested extension, we will know there were 27 votes in favour of that decision, and zero votes against.

So what the unnamed Downing St source coughDominicCummingscough is saying is that all 27 will immediately be demoted to last place in the queue of the UK's friends in the EU. Which of course would also be first place in that queue, depending on how you look at it.

Honestly, I don't know which is more depressing; the delusions reflected in this threat, or the total incoherence of it.

Well it's what Sebastian Payne was saying. It's for internal consumption. Usually (but not always), if it sounds completely crazy and/or nonsensical than it's internally focused. If there's a hint of sanity in it, then it's for the EU. It will also be much quieter.

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well it's what Sebastian Payne was saying. It's for internal consumption. Usually (but not always), if it sounds completely crazy and/or nonsensical than it's internally focused. If there's a hint of sanity in it, then it's for the EU. It will also be much quieter.

If "delusional and incoherent" is considered good enough for domestic consumption, that speaks volumes for the contempt in which the Brexit elite holds the 17.4 million.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Odd, link shows up when I quote the post, but not otherwise?

The level of disillusion in that is amazing for example

They thought that if May went then Brexit would get softer.

Did anyone actually think this?

Or this countries will go the front of what queue ? It's no trade as the EU will control that , I've actually no idea what's on offer here

We will make clear privately and publicly that countries which oppose delay will go the front of the queue for future cooperation — cooperation on things both within and outside EU competences. Those who support delay will go to the bottom of the queue

sliabh 1956

Well they can't do much more damage to us so it's the French and Germans that better look out

McMurphy

The EU should tell them if they want an extension, it should be a minimum 2 year extension for them to get their sh1t together, parliament wise etc, and the rest of the business world could stop putting things on ice due to uncertainty.

2 year extension, or just leave on Halloween.

CelticRambler

If they continue to demonise Ireland/Leo Varadkar, prompting Ireland to veto the extension request, do we move to the front of the queue for future cooperation? That could be handy - we could ask them to agree to a frictionless border on the island, and move all customs controls to the Irish Sea!

fash

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

The EU should tell them if they want an extension, it should be a minimum 2 year extension for them to get their sh1t together, parliament wise etc, and the rest of the business world could stop putting things on ice due to uncertainty.

2 year extension, or just leave on Halloween.

I think there is a hard point in June 2020 related to the next EU budget?

fash

CelticRambler wrote: »

If they continue to demonise Ireland/Leo Varadkar, prompting Ireland to veto the extension request, do we move to the front of the queue for future cooperation? That could be handy - we could ask them to agree to a frictionless border on the island, and move all customs controls to the Irish Sea!

We should ask for NI together with an ongoing subvention of £10 billion (or equivalent in Euro pegged at a sterling rate pre brexit)

LeinsterDub

hoody wrote: »

Thought this was interesting, it purports to give the current view from the UK government.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

They talk in terms of individual (Varadkar / Barnier etc) rather than collective motivation on the EU side, but if it's to be believed (and it might well be nonsense), it's full throttle for No Deal once the latest proposals founder at the end of this week.

Great take down of this nonsense here
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1181487794012741632

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Great take down of this nonsense here
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1181487794012741632

It surprises me that Foster continues to be employed by The Telegraph.

reslfj

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think what Downing Street was getting at was, if Spain supports an extension, maybe we will get our oranges from Brazil instead.

https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1181243913698516997?s=20

10000maniacs wrote: »

Likewise Olives from Tunisia instead of Italy, Red Bull style drinks from Argentina instead of Austria. etc.

Check Jim Cornelius's tweets, he may have written about Olives as well.

Generally the EU and other WTO members have high tariffs plus negotiated FTAs with low or tariff free quotas.

Now import of oranges, olives and indeed of 'Bed Bull' for consumption is driving no economy to greatness.

Lars

Batten down the hatches :I

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49970267

The high horse brigade

Sammy Wilson is talking to Pat Kenny just now

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Batten down the hatches :I

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49970267

Damage control from this probably
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1181496872306913281

darem93

I just can't listen to or watch anyone from the DUP speaking. I can feel my blood pressure rising every single time.

Hurrache

darem93 wrote: »

I just can't listen to or watch anyone from the DUP speaking. I can feel my blood pressure rising every single time.

He's completely deluded. I always think Pat is too soft on them too, maybe someone should tell him that Wilson is also a cyclist, he'd give him a proper grilling then.

We're "obstructionists" now apparently because of how the insurance works outside of the EU. Kenny letting him away with all his ****.

And now Wilson using the threat saying there'll be repercussions because the Irish are thwarting the will of the British people. Ireland is arrogant in interfering in the internal workings of a foreign country, and we're bad neighbours and we'll suffer the consequences.

lawred2

Akrasia wrote: »

For the past 3 years the UK have been talking up 'no deal' as the nuclear option, their biggest threat and bargaining chip to get the EU to give them a deal.

Now they're changed to the real nuclear option, threatening to stay in the EU and be as hostile and intransigent and disruptive as possible in order to demand a No Deal.

It's always been the biggest flaw in the 'no deal as threat' strategy that, while a British crash out would be harmful, giving them any deal that undermines the integrity of the single market was worse, so the EU, going for the least worst option, would sadly allow the UK to crash out

This is when the UK were trying to get a deal. Now the brextremists are firmly in control and they don't want a deal, they want a crash out, so they have a strategy that is much more likely to work. The strategy that up to now, was never stated publicly because all sensible people realise that the UK needs to be on good terms with the EU if they want to have any chance of developing trade deals in the aftermath of brexit

Now, they have come out and stated that their real threat is that they won't leave, and by staying, they will use all of the rules of the EU to undermine the EU, to block and delay and veto any action, to prevent the budgets from passing, to block trade deals, to refuse to cooperate in the spirit of the Single market and Customs union.

This is the strategy that was always the most likely to succeed in preventing an extension, but the cost is the future relationship between the UK and the EU and if the UK leaves on bad terms, then even the emergency measures agreed between the EU and UK regarding transport and security cooperation could be in jeopardy.

The UK's strategy is to turn itself into a global pariah that no country would be able to do any deals with. And it might just be crazy enough to work

But they are not though - they are not in control of anything. When was the last vote that Brexit extremists won in the HOC?

Sam Russell

Hurrache wrote: »

He's completely deluded. I always think Pat is too soft on them too, maybe someone should tell him that Wilson is also a cyclist, he'd give him a proper grilling then.

No, he rides a motorcycle - just like Pat does so a kindred spirit.

Hurrache

Sam Russell wrote: »

No, he rides a motorcycle - just like Pat does so a kindred spirit.

Oh I'm not saying he actually does, but just tell Pat he does regardless.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Batten down the hatches :I

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49970267

A government official told the BBC the EU had not shown a desire to "budge one centimetre" since Boris Johnson submitted new proposals to Brussels.

Why aren't they measuring budge in inches?

In any case, this whole "doublespeak" approach is both bizarre and puzzling, when we see that Trump's use of the same has made him a laughing stock at the United Nations, seriously damaged the reputation of the US as a reliable partner in any context, and as yet has had no positive effect on the US economy. If the Cummings cabal are using the same instruction manual, why do they think that the UK will fare better than their Big Brother?

Stop moaning ffs

We know Laura isn’t exactly impartial journalistically speaking but an interesting thread. ‘Sources’ (eyeroll) tell her (I’m weirdly specific detail, Johnson back to calling Merkel this morning only to be told what he’s been told repeatedly before. And he resorts to petty threats and blame.
I’m come to the conclusion it’s not that they’re acting in bad faith, Johnson and co simply don’t understand how any of this works at all.


https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1181495898431528960?s=21

Hurrache

CelticRambler wrote: »

Why aren't they measuring budge in inches?

In any case, this whole "doublespeak" approach is both bizarre and puzzling, when we see that Trump's use of the same has made him a laughing stock at the United Nations, seriously damaged the reputation of the US as a reliable partner in any context, and as yet has had no positive effect on the US economy. If the Cummings cabal are using the same instruction manual, why do they think that the UK will fare better than their Big Brother?

There's actually discussion around if this actually happened as it was leaked to Laura Kuennsberg, or if the words are being twisted by the UK, ignoring any nuance in the conversation, with their rush to leak it out pretty quickly.

The German gov usually publish any such conversations on one of their websites and it's not there yet.