Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

quokula

josip wrote: »

Different arrangements need to be made visiting the countries you have listed so I'm not exactly sure what your point is?

For example, an IDP is required and valid in Uzbekistan.
It is not valid in North Korea where a DPRK license is required.
EU driving licenses are valid in Serbia.

A green card is not required when visiting Serbia by car.
It is required when visiting Uzbekistan by car.
I have no idea what colour card is needed when visiting North Korea by car but if you've managed to get it that far, well done.

You're talking about EU citizens travelling to those countries, which are free to make their own rules, which is different to people from third countries travelling to the EU, which is what British citizens will be subject to.

In fact, the UK government has already said they will accept Irish drivers with Irish insurance without a green card. However British drivers will need a green card to drive here, just like any other third country.

woohoo!!!

Came across a tweet earlier that for the public to accept war like conditions, hardships, shortage of food and so on, is to convince them that they're at war.

Post crash out, all those benefits of being in the EU being gone will be blamed on the EU as they're punishing us. I expect Cummings to further develop on his if you don't co-operate with us line you go to the back of the queue, to announce measures that can be used against Ireland as retaliation. Brexiteers will lap this up. The DUP will get their hard border and the UK will repudiate GFA thus ending the possibility of a border poll in NI for unification. In short the UK under Johnson is actively preparing for rogue state status or as they call it, sunlit uplands.

A Dub in Glasgo

17:00 update on the Times website, did I miss this when Varadkar was in New York?

The EU and Boris Johnson are calling each other’s bluff on Brexit
Oliver Wright, Policy Editor

When Boris Johnson unveiled his Brexit plan last week it was far from a punt in the dark. The week before, on the fringes of the United Nations in New York, the prime minister met with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar and discussed the potential for a compromise.

Downing Street believed they came away with an understanding: If London moved on aligning Northern Ireland with the EU single market then Dublin would move on customs regulations.

The level of trust was such that Mr Johnson dispatched his chief of staff, Eddie Lister, to Dublin the day before his announcement to brief Mr Varadkar on the plan before it was even shared with Brussels.

But as soon as it was made public the private understandings fell apart. Mr Varadkar deliberately enraged the DUP by raising the prospect of a united Ireland as one way to break the Brexit impasse. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, publically dismissed the new British proposals as unworkable.

Behind the scenes things were even worse. Dublin shut off back-channel discussions with London and insisted that all talks go through Brussels and Michel Barnier. Mr Barnier then ruled out the British plan as the basis for any agreement.

The whole episode has left Downing Street feeling bruised and angry. Government figures believe that they are being deliberately played.

They think Mr Varadkar and other EU leaders are making a calculation that if they play hardball then the Benn act will force Mr Johnson to ask for an extension. They don’t believe that he has a secret plan to take Britain out without a deal on October 31 and even if he tried parliament would stop him.

Such an extension would then lead to an election or, less likely, a second referendum.

If it is an election this either leads to a victory for Mr Johnson or a softer Brexit or no-Brexit at all under Labour or a coalition.

If it is a second referendum then they do not expect parliament to allow no-deal on the ballot paper.

Even if Mr Johnson returns triumphant to Downing Street from the election the EU will be calculating that it is still in the prime minister’s interests to get a deal.

A no-deal Brexit would be disruptive and at some stage talks would have to start again. So why would Mr Johnson not give it another go?

Downing Street’s reading is that Brussels has decided that if it is going to compromise on a customs deal in Northern Ireland why not do it at the last possible moment rather than now when it doesn’t really have to?

That is why today’s leaked government memo makes explicit the threat that the prime minister will go into an election on a no-deal platform.

Both sides are calling each other’s bluff. It is a risky strategy for all concerned.

Tea Shock

There's been a phone conversation between Varadkar and Johnson this afternoon

** I'm just waiting for the "Anonymous" source to give details of exchanges now!

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1181613019547258881


To meet later in the week.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1181612547675508737

Apparently they are to meet in Dublin.

Infini

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I said real politick dictates that mini deals will need to be done in numerous areas, despite the aspirations of some not to do them.

There wont be mini deals, anything atm that happens after Brexit will be like the situation with planes in which existing arrangememts might continue as is for a time after Brexit but which can be pulled unilaterally by the EU side at any time.

The UK is going to be up shìt creek without a paddle and Brexit wont be the end it will be the beginning of a chain reaction of clusterfùck situations because this will be ultimately corrosive. The damage and chaos is going to be in things not anticipated or one thing reacting with another magnifying the problem till buisnesses basically fail. Theres warnings of this happening along the border within 72 hours of a no deal.

The government might be flexible on things like cattle in the event of a no deal to try and avoid things like a mass culling but the longer it goes on the worse it gets, its why Im pretty much certain if this happens the UK ceases to exist the same way the soviet union or yugoslavia did within a few years replaced by a Republic of Scotland and a United Ireland (Arlene and co can feck off to whats left of England for all I care at that point if they dont like it as they basically screwed BOTH communities with their toxic idiocy and support of the Tories and a UI is really the only solution and way out of undoing their damage at least on this island.)

Flex

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's getting particularly nasty now. The Tories are going to ramp up the rhetoric, knowing an extension looms and an election is on the horizon. Likewise the DUP, who have come under criticism from all sides over the two borders idea, will revert to their default defence position: go on the offensive. We're seeing that with Foster's pitiful comments today.

The challenge for our politicians will be to keep calm and collected in the face of these hissy fits. They've done a pretty good job so far.

I've seen quite a lot of posts from Brexit supporters appalled by those Leave.EU WW2 tweets, which gives me a bit of optimism that there is still some semblance of decency around. That will be tested in the coming months because I can see a general election campaign being absolutely toxic.

Definitely, and what I find absolutely remarkable is that the phone call between Johnson and Chancellor Merkel (which I dont believe for a second was conveyed using the language, tone or inflection the 'aides' in Downing Street leaked to Laura Kuennsberg) has been seized upon by so many in the UK now and quoted and repeated as if it was verbatim what Chancellor Merkel said

As someone alluded to earlier too, I also find it convenient how Brexit groups, the DUP etc. were ready to pounce on it and use it as a "See, we told you this was their evil secret plan all along" so quicklyafter the '2 borders for 4 years' plan was being roasted.

The unchallenged lies the UK government is able to tell and repeat ad nauseum is breath taking. Was I following correctly in that the UK government are back to their usual crap of only providing a 7 page summary of their proposal (that they keep saying is a deal), whereas the legal text is 44 pages long and are refusing to present the actual legal text? And the reason they claim is that it will undermine the negotiations that arent taking place and couldnt take place anyway because they havent presented details of their proposals to the other party... Then there was how Varadkar claimed he'd agree if manufactured regulatory alignment was put forward but since no deal was banned he's become more ballsy and just deceitfully betrayed the Uk (I have very little time for Leo Varadkar, but that story to me carries as much credibility as the account of the phone call above)

How do people and media in the UK not see the danger of how their government is behaving towards them and the obvious Doublethink theyre being subjected to but entirely complicit in by swallowing and following.. There should be no extension, this just has to happen because it has gone way too far to reverse; if Brexit is aborted there will be uproar and the disruption posed to the EU of the UK remaining would be unacceptable. Hopefully the UK breaks up in the next few years and Scotland and Northern Ireland (and perhaps Wales) can leave and rejoin the EU and let England enjoy a period of self-reflection where it can catch up in its own good time and rejoin when its ready

eire4

Flex wrote: »

Definitely, and what I find absolutely remarkable is that the phone call between Johnson and Chancellor Merkel (which I dont believe for a second was conveyed using the language, tone or inflection the 'aides' in Downing Street leaked to Laura Kuennsberg) has been seized upon by so many in the UK now and quoted and repeated as if it was verbatim what Chancellor Merkel said

As someone alluded to earlier too, I also find it convenient how Brexit groups, the DUP etc. were ready to pounce on it and use it as a "See, we told you this was their evil secret plan all along" so quicklyafter the '2 borders for 4 years' plan was being roasted.

The unchallenged lies the UK government is able to tell and repeat ad nauseum is breath taking. Was I following correctly in that the UK government are back to their usual crap of only providing a 7 page summary of their proposal (that they keep saying is a deal), whereas the legal text is 44 pages long and are refusing to present the actual legal text? And the reason they claim is that it will undermine the negotiations that arent taking place and couldnt take place anyway because they havent presented details of their proposals to the other party... Then there was how Varadkar claimed he'd agree if manufactured regulatory alignment was put forward but since no deal was banned he's become more ballsy and just deceitfully betrayed the Uk (I have very little time for Leo Varadkar, but that story to me carries as much credibility as the account of the phone call above)

How do people and media in the UK not see the danger of how their government is behaving towards them and the obvious Doublethink theyre being subjected to but entirely complicit in by swallowing and following.. There should be no extension, this just has to happen because it has gone way too far to reverse; if Brexit is aborted there will be uproar and the disruption posed to the EU of the UK remaining would be unacceptable. Hopefully the UK breaks up in the next few years and Scotland and Northern Ireland (and perhaps Wales) can leave and rejoin the EU and let England enjoy a period of self-reflection where it can catch up in its own good time and rejoin when its ready

I am coming round to this position given just how toxic things are getting and how underhand the behaviour from London is. I agree with you on both the Merkel call and the Varadkar story. I just flat out don't believe it at all. Just all looks like below the belt tactics from London to me. At this point just let them crash out and we can then start to actually move on rather then this slow moving car crash that we have now.

Fionn1952

Sorry if I've missed it at some point, but can anyone shed some light on why all the aggressively lunatic front of the pro-Brexit lot on Twitter have suddenly added Esq to the end of their twitter names?

Presumably it's some pop at the Supreme Court decision, but I cant make much sense out of it.

Enzokk

Here is a comment piece by Ian Dunt from the Irish Times website,

Dominic Cummings memo reveals contradictory Brexit policy with demented overtones

It tries to explain why Cummings will surely fail in the negotiations with the EU as he doesn't seem to be able to take the point of view of the other side and also sees the world in a way that Trump seems to view it. If you win then it must mean I lose, even if we both win in reality.

Cummings’s lengthy missive is angrier than the type of material put out by Theresa May’s administration, but in one central area it is uncannily alike: It shows almost no understanding whatsoever of European incentives, political systems or domestic sensitivities. It is what happens when you base your negotiating posture without any empathy or interest in the other side. It’s really not much more sophisticated than playing Battleships.

...


These logical defects do not just reflect a misunderstanding of each individual issue. They are a pattern of errors, suited to the nationalist world view, which sees international relations as a zero-sum game in which big countries are winners and small ones losers to be gobbled up.

It is the strategic equivalent of Donald Trump’s views on global trade. The American president does not comprehend that when two countries trade they both win – one gets money and the other products. He simply sees one number being higher than another number and concludes that the country with the lower number is losing.

Cummings is making the same mistake on organisational cooperation. That’s partly why he and his allies have been so startled by Ireland’s prominence during negotiations. Their entire working assumption about world politics was that international cooperation sucked power from the nation state. They had never considered that it might bolster it – that two sides win.

quokula

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Sorry if I've missed it at some point, but can anyone shed some light on why all the aggressively lunatic front of the pro-Brexit lot on Twitter have suddenly added Esq to the end of their twitter names?

Presumably it's some pop at the Supreme Court decision, but I cant make much sense out of it.

It was leaked a while ago that Jacob Rees Mogg gave all his staff a hand out booklet with style guides for correspondence etc where he said they should address him and other MPs as esquire because, well, because he's Jacob Rees Mogg.

I recall a number of Labour MPs adding it to their username afterwords to mock him, maybe the brexiteers have decided to reclaim it.

maebee

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Sorry if I've missed it at some point, but can anyone shed some light on why all the aggressively lunatic front of the pro-Brexit lot on Twitter have suddenly added Esq to the end of their twitter names?

Presumably it's some pop at the Supreme Court decision, but I cant make much sense out of it.

it's JRM related:

https://twitter.com/aka_porlek/status/1160156054497320960?lang=en

Fionn1952

Thanks to you both!

Beechwoodspark

BJ obv hoping to poison relationships with his EU “friends” pre summit in the hope an extension is refused.

Infini

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

BJ obv hoping to poison relationships with his EU “friends” pre summit in the hope an extension is refused.

The thing is they don't have to refuse an extention they simply say an agreement is not possible before Oct 31st unless these legal requirements are met and that they are willing to facilitate an extention for an election/referendum or genuine attempts to avoid no deal.

The EU aren't fools, they know they're incompetent but as Covney said today if it happens it's because the British Government CHOSE this. That's what Boris is squirmish about being made to choose it because if he does he cant blame the EU for any consequences and he's the fall guy and if he get's an extention he's out anyways because Nigel's Bullshít Party drains the con vote and Labour/Lib Dems/SNP clean house and promply give him and his friends their marching orders into the wilderness.

prawnsambo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

17:00 update on the Times website, did I miss this when Varadkar was in New York?

The EU and Boris Johnson are calling each other’s bluff on Brexit
Oliver Wright, Policy Editor

The UN General Assembly would have been the last time he was in NY. About the time that Greta Thunberg was there if you recall that occasion. I find that report to be somewhat hard to believe (I'm being restrained here). I can't for the life of me see how Leo Varadkar would agree to anything that would impose customs duties on NS trade, never mind customs posts, no matter how far removed from the border. It would be lunacy I'd be more inclined to believe that it's more of the same misinformation that we had this morning than anything else.

10000maniacs

Channel 4 are now claiming that Boris Johnson is blaming Leo Varadkar for the breakup in talks because when they met in New York, Varadkar indicated that
"if Britain moved on the single market, Ireland would move on the customs union" and Johnson based his deal round that.
Is that what Varadkar really said in New York?
And even if he did, how could Johnson base his entire plan on one comment by the Irish PM?
Bizarre distortion of reality by Channel 4 news.

trellheim

Have to laugh at the tweet above Arron Banks calling Piers Morgan a snowflake ... two crows looking into a crisp packet.


Its time for that evergreen link http://arethebritsatitagain.com/

J Mysterio

Coveney is with Barnier in Brussels

https://twitter.com/chrisrdonoghue/status/1181625171913957376

Kermit.de.frog

J Mysterio wrote: »

Coveney is with Barnier in Brussels

https://twitter.com/chrisrdonoghue/status/1181625171913957376

If I recall correctly, and I do, David Davis didn't even need as much as a pen to handle Barnier.



You need to up your game Simon.

J Mysterio

'Two options left - extension or no deal'

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1181624974102220802

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1181629866535538689

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1181630597388800000

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/1181635230932901891

"No progress"

So what is Leo receiving BJ in Dublin for?

MPFGLB

10000maniacs wrote: »

Channel 4 are now claiming that Boris Johnson is blaming Leo Varadkar for the breakup in talks because when they met in New York, Varadkar indicated that
"if Britain moved on the single market, Ireland would move on the customs union" and Johnson based his deal round that.
Is that what Varadkar really said in New York?
And even if he did, how could Johnson base his entire plan on one comment by the Irish PM?
Bizarre distortion of reality by Channel 4 news.

Channel 4 news isn't distorting reality ? Jeez what stone have you been hiding under

Johnson cares little about a deal or no deal...he cares only about being seen to delivery Brexit and being blocked by EU , Ireland and everyone and his uncle
Johnson is not living in the same reality as other politicians in this

EU and Ireland are working to either get a deal or manage no deal

Johnson is working only to make himself electable to as he sees it the pro brexit UK electorate


But the electorate has shifted ...

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/1181635230932901891

"No progress"

So what is Leo receiving BJ in Dublin for?

And the statement itself is all the more pessimistic:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20191008IPR63735/statement-by-david-sassoli-president-of-the-european-parliament

10000maniacs

MPFGLB wrote: »

Channel 4 news isn't distorting reality ? Jeez what stone have you been hiding under

Johnson cares little about a deal or no deal...he cares only about being seen to delivery Brexit and being blocked by EU , Ireland and everyone and his uncle
Johnson is not living in the same reality as other politicians in this

EU and Ireland are working to either get a deal or manage no deal

Johnson is working only to make himself electable to as he sees it the pro brexit UK electorate


But the electorate has shifted ...

If you show me where Varadkar said "if Britain moved on the single market, Ireland would move on the customs union", I will agree with you. I don't remember Varadkar ever saying that or even Johnson ever blaming Varadkar on that particular point.
Garry Gibbon has let his appalling lack of knowledge and facts on the Irish situation slip on a number of occasion in the last couple of months.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

If you show me where Varadkar said "if Britain moved on the single market, Ireland would move on the customs union", I will agree with you. I don't remember Varadkar ever saying that or even Johnson ever blaming Varadkar on that particular point.
Garry Gibbon has let his appalling lack of knowledge and facts on the Irish situation slip on a number of occasion in the last couple of months.

If you look ten or so posts up thread, you'll see similar from The Times. Not sure if it's co-ordinated or C4 took it from there, but that's two outlets with it if not.

A Dub in Glasgo

10000maniacs wrote: »

If you show me where Varadkar said "if Britain moved on the single market, Ireland would move on the customs union", I will agree with you. I don't remember Varadkar ever saying that or even Johnson ever blaming Varadkar on that particular point.
Garry Gibbon has let his appalling lack of knowledge and facts on the Irish situation slip on a number of occasion in the last couple of months.

Media outlets are being briefed today (no doubt Cummings) to spread misinformation. This morning it was Merkel, this afternoon Varadkar

The media in the UK is complicit in all this, they should refuse to publicise if the source will not go public

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111459091&postcount=3805

prawnsambo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Media outlets are being briefed today (no doubt Cummings) to spread misinformation. This morning it was Merkel, this afternoon Varadkar

The media in the UK is complicit in all this, they should refuse to publicise if the source will not go public

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111459091&postcount=3805

Yeah. Robert Peston was wetting himself this morning about his 'scoop' that Laura K also had. And later tweeted about how strange it was that the cabinet (who met after the phone call) weren't told about it. Without the slightest embarrassment on his part. They are so addicted to the 'sources' and 'leaks' that they literally can't stop using them.

How they could 'sell' this story about Varadkar 'giving up' on the customs issue is mind boggling.

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

"No progress"

So what is Leo receiving BJ in Dublin for?

Side deals!

He wants to seperate Ireland out from the EU.

Presumably Coveney and Barnier are discussing tactics and how to approach the latest perfidy.