Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Unless a reciprocal arrangement is made, it will revert to needing travel insurance for EU citizens to visit the UK and vice versa. We know that travel insurance doesn't cover everything, so without an agreement you'd be left to pay your own medical fees if not covered by travel insurance or if you didn't get cover.

In the end it would be so messy with paperwork and the like, that a reciprocal arrangement would likely be made.

In theory

In practice the NHS being generally free doesn't actually have a working mechanism to bill foreigners. Most bills just get written off. So no huge incentive to reciprocate on that one till later on.


It's a bit like the magic eborder for Northern Ireland in theory it works, but it doesn't really and won't ready for a long time.



As an aside the NHS use 10% of the worlds remaining pagers.
And will be phasing out fax machines next year, maybe.
I wouldn't hold out hope of a new billing system any time soon.


It's like announcing the end to 88% of tariffs without realising how this affects you negotiating position when trying to get others to drop their tariffs in a free trade deal.

An Ciarraioch

June extension to be debated next week?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/08/eu-may-offer-to-extend-deadline-for-brexit-deal-to-summer

Kermit.de.frog

Interesting take in the FT this evening.

"Johnson urges Varadkar to keep Brexit talks alive"

A hint maybe that the UK may be prepared to concede more but we'll see.

gimli2112

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And the statement itself is all the more pessimistic:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20191008IPR63735/statement-by-david-sassoli-president-of-the-european-parliament

it's a very good statement however and in stark contrast to the one liners coming from the other side

ToBeFrank123

CelticRambler wrote: »

I call it irrelevant, because both countries are currently in the EU

Nice avoidance there.

Its a deal between Ireland and UK to recognise divorces in each others countries post Brexit. The issue is outlined here.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/divorces-in-uk-wont-automatically-be-recognised-in-ireland-after-brexit-935234.html

Thankfully common sense prevailed.

Capt'n Midnight

josip wrote: »

Different arrangements need to be made visiting the countries you have listed so I'm not exactly sure what your point is?

For example, an IDP is required and valid in Uzbekistan.
It is not valid in North Korea where a DPRK license is required.
EU driving licenses are valid in Serbia.

A green card is not required when visiting Serbia by car.
It is required when visiting Uzbekistan by car.
I have no idea what colour card is needed when visiting North Korea by car but if you've managed to get it that far, well done.

NB. For Uzbekistan you need the 1968 IDP, not the 1949 or the 1926 one.

A Hard Brexit means this level of bureaucracy on lots and lots of stuff.

Capt'n Midnight

MPFGLB wrote: »

Channel 4 news isn't distorting reality ? Jeez what stone have you been hiding under

How did their correspondent paraphrase the Germans response to a No Deal ?
Something like If the bill isn't paid the effing gloves come off

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Nice avoidance there.

Its a deal between the Ireland and UK to recognise divorces in each others countries post Brexit. The issue is outlined here.

Huh? You cite an article that literally refers to intra-EU legislation, and moves by the Irish government to finalise changes to Irish legislation while the UK is still a member of the EU.

Are you as worried about the situation for English families in the process of splitting up, and living between two different jurisdictions, e.g. France and England? Because that's another hell of a mess that Westminster doesn't appear to have given much thought to.

But guess what? It's not our problem. The English voted for Brexit. The English will get Brexit, and the English can sort out any problems that arise from Brexit - and there will be many, and far more serious than data roaming or getting sick on holidays.

Unless of course, they decide not to leave at the end of the month ...

ToBeFrank123

CelticRambler wrote: »

Huh? You cite an article that literally refers to intra-EU legislation, and moves by the Irish government to finalise changes to Irish legislation while the UK is still a member of the EU.

Are you as worried about the situation for English families in the process of splitting up, and living between two different jurisdictions, e.g. France and England? Because that's another hell of a mess that Westminster doesn't appear to have given much thought to.

But guess what? It's not our problem. The English voted for Brexit. The English will get Brexit, and the English can sort out any problems that arise from Brexit - and there will be many, and far more serious than data roaming or getting sick on holidays.

Unless of course, they decide not to leave at the end of the month ...

FFS. The deal on divorce is specifically related to Ireland and the UK and what happens post brexit. The Irish government have cited it in recent days.

There will be problems of course in the UK post Brexit. There will also be problems here, particulalry for people along the border.

Its looking like a No Deal brexit at this stage so the best we can hope for is reduce the impact of that on Ireland and those along the border.

Hoping the UK changes its mind is a ship that has sailed. Time to make preparations for No Deal.

Enzokk

This has probably been linked before but the plan seems to be in full force and predicable for some at least for a while now,

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286330249142272?s=20

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286335441670144?s=20

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286341049524224?s=20

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286345688367105?s=20

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286350251769861?s=20

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286355016486913?s=20

I still don't know what Johnson does though if he gets an election and wins a majority. Either he is okay with no-deal which he will campaign on or he will break all his promises made during the campaign and leave with a deal that the EU will give him, the WA. So what does he want other than to be PM?

ToBeFrank123

I can't see the ERG for example ever voting for the WA and likely other Tories might have issues particularly if more hardline Brexiteers are elected.

To get the EU/May's WA over the line always depended on Corbyn's support and he voted against 3 times already.

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

FFS. The deal on divorce is specifically related to Ireland and the UK and what happens post brexit.

Why is it different for divorcees in Ireland vis-à-vis the UK compared to France or Germany? And in any case, there's no deal (maxi, mini or otherwise) involved - AFAIK, it's Irish leglislation being passed in the Dáil for people living in Ireland. Nothing to do with Brexit or the British.

I really don't understand why you're picking this one example (or the mobile roaming charges) of troublesome practicalities when there are potentially fatal implications for Britons in the event of a crash-out Brexit, and many other serious effects for those who live on the neighbouring island.

Stop moaning ffs

Listening to Bercows replacements ‘debate’ on LBC. They all sound like horrible people tbh.
I heard he’s going to be on the late late this Friday? He’s good enough to get me to watch it.

He’s doing this right now

https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1181657129574436870?s=21

Patser

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. Robert Peston was wetting himself this morning about his 'scoop' that Laura K also had. And later tweeted about how strange it was that the cabinet (who met after the phone call) weren't told about it. Without the slightest embarrassment on his part. They are so addicted to the 'sources' and 'leaks' that they literally can't stop using them.

How they could 'sell' this story about Varadkar 'giving up' on the customs issue is mind boggling.

I seen Peston tweet on that too, but I picked it up differently. I felt Peston was showing how centralised all off what was happening was with just Johnson, Cummings and few other close advisors calling the shots. Even the cabinet were being kept in the dark.

Johnson had spoken to Merkel before a cabinet meeting, a 'leak' was being arranged to smear Merkel and the EU, but the cabinet were not briefed on this at all, not consulted or asked for advice - instead they were sent blind out to bat while Number 10 tried to change the narrative.

I don't think Peston was gloating, more showing how out of control Johnson and Cummings are.

jimmycrackcorm

I suspect that the UK is banking that in the event of a hard BREXIT that Ireland will have to enforce customs checks on our side first.
They will simply say that we're breaking the GFA in that they're not putting up the same.

Who knows how it will affect NI.
I do know of a business fur example that has manufacturing in NI but also facilities and offices in the RoI. The manufacturing will simply move south.

Kermit.de.frog

From Robert Peston

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-08/varadkar-tries-to-keep-a-brexit-deal-alive-but-will-probably-fail-robert-peston-writes/

And the Irish PM Leo Varadkar tried to be more emollient in his chat with Johnson this afternoon. He said that the backstop and membership of the customs union, so hated by Northern Ireland’s DUP - Johnson’s unionist allies - would only be temporary, seemingly contradicting what Merkel said (though my German sources insist Johnson over-reacted to Merkel simply saying that the original backstop, which would potentially have kept the UK or NI in the customs union forever, is the sole idea that so far solves the so-called Ireland problem).

All of which suggests that towards the end of this week the EU will moot a possible deal-saving compromise, namely keeping Northern Ireland in the backstop for a specified and limited number of years.

How can a contingency be temporary? (unless the unicorn is just around the corner)

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I can't see the ERG for example ever voting for the WA and likely other Tories might have issues particularly if more hardline Brexiteers are elected.

To get the EU/May's WA over the line always depended on Corbyn's support and he voted against 3 times already.

So what deal does Johnson get because the WA is what the UK will get? They have shown themselves to be unreliable negotiating partners so the EU will need a legal guarantee that there will never be a border on this island. The change in a deal for either party will be the deal after they leave and whether that will mean the backstop needs to be implemented or not.

I am torn on what Johnson wants. People keep saying he is not wedded to no-deal or he will not do it because he knows the damage will be too severe, yet he cannot come back with the only deal he will ever get from the EU as he has dismissed it already. So what does he want?

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From Robert Peston

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-08/varadkar-tries-to-keep-a-brexit-deal-alive-but-will-probably-fail-robert-peston-writes/

How can a contingency be temporary?

It is not, the backstop is only in operation until the trade deal is negotiated. Everyone should know this, Peston should as well. Once we know what deal they want, then the negotiations will be done on whether NI will be permanently in a CU and SM with the EU or not. The backstop doesn't tie them to the CU or SM permanently, but the trade negotiations will.:cool:

CrabRevolution

CelticRambler wrote: »

Why is it different for divorcees in Ireland vis-à-vis the UK compared to France or Germany? And in any case, there's no deal (maxi, mini or otherwise) involved - AFAIK, it's Irish leglislation being passed in the Dáil for people living in Ireland. Nothing to do with Brexit or the British.

I really don't understand why you're picking this one example (or the mobile roaming charges) of troublesome practicalities when there are potentially fatal implications for Britons in the event of a crash-out Brexit, and many other serious effects for those who live on the neighbouring island.

It's a strange argument. The steadfast belief that the EU will sell out all of their principles just to make a small part of their life easier is bizarre, and has been repeatedly debunked and denied by the EU since day 1.


If the logic of "if it causes problems, it simply can't happen" is as 100% sound as claimed, brexit wouldn't be happening in the first place.

Leroy42

If no deal does happen, there is zero chance of any mini deals, except if they are in the interest of the EU and very much in the favour of the EU.

You can't go around slagging off the other side, calling them all sorts and blaming them for everything and then ask them to help you out.

If Johnson does indeed see Leo as the weak link in getting movement from the EU, then surely he can see that the abuse and vitriol is not going to help them in that regard. It will serve to only toughen the Irish position (as it would anyone else).

Whilst it may play well domestically, it will have the opposite effect in Ireland and internationally. And therein lies the problem with Brexit. They continuously call for their demands to be met, they can't ever give up on what they believe in, yet at the very same time expect everyone else to do exactly that. And then berate the others when they don't.

Leroy42

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I suspect that the UK is banking that in the event of a hard BREXIT that Ireland will have to enforce customs checks on our side first.
They will simply say that we're breaking the GFA in that they're not putting up the same.

Who knows how it will affect NI.
I do know of a business fur example that has manufacturing in NI but also facilities and offices in the RoI. The manufacturing will simply move south.

But so what. Apart from being to say "well Ireland did it first' what benefit is it to NI or UK? They will still be faced with unrest, whether that be politically (hopefully) or civil (fingers crossed it doesn't happen). And when the likes of Scotland see the devastation brought onto NI because of a English idea, it will even easier to big up independence.

This whole plan looks very short term, get to and win an election. But what then?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

If no deal does happen, there is zero chance of any mini deals, except if they are in the interest of the EU and very much in the favour of the EU.

You can't go around slagging off the other side, calling them all sorts and blaming them for everything and then ask them to help you out.

If Johnson does indeed see Leo as the weak link in getting movement from the EU, then surely he can see that the abuse and vitriol is not going to help them in that regard. It will serve to only toughen the Irish position (as it would anyone else).

Whilst it may play well domestically, it will have the opposite effect in Ireland and internationally. And therein lies the problem with Brexit. They continuously call for their demands to be met, they can't ever give up on what they believe in, yet at the very same time expect everyone else to do exactly that. And then berate the others when they don't.

Nobody is going to fail to see the link between Leave.EU's image this morning and the role Gove and Johnson played in advocating for Leave before the referendum.

The absolute disdain for this approach by the UK is no longer entirely concealed in messages from key EU players, see Tusks this morning as an example. Even Simon Coveney effectively said the current British government is incapable of functioning.

(I must repeat that I find this absolutely fascinating, the behaviour of such senior people in such provocative and childish practices while thinking it will help them get to what they want and for their supporters to constantly lower their self-respect in order to find it acceptable is incredible in my mind on a sociological level)

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

If no deal does happen, there is zero chance of any mini deals, except if they are in the interest of the EU and very much in the favour of the EU.

You can't go around slagging off the other side, calling them all sorts and blaming them for everything and then ask them to help you out.

If Johnson does indeed see Leo as the weak link in getting movement from the EU, then surely he can see that the abuse and vitriol is not going to help them in that regard. It will serve to only toughen the Irish position (as it would anyone else).

Whilst it may play well domestically, it will have the opposite effect in Ireland and internationally. And therein lies the problem with Brexit. They continuously call for their demands to be met, they can't ever give up on what they believe in, yet at the very same time expect everyone else to do exactly that. And then berate the others when they don't.

If Merkel gets to see that Leave.EU meme with her giving a 'Nazi' salute, the next time Ireland is on the phone they'll get a very warm and understanding reception.

ToBeFrank123

Enzokk wrote: »

So what deal does Johnson get because the WA is what the UK will get? They have shown themselves to be unreliable negotiating partners so the EU will need a legal guarantee that there will never be a border on this island. The change in a deal for either party will be the deal after they leave and whether that will mean the backstop needs to be implemented or not.

I am torn on what Johnson wants. People keep saying he is not wedded to no-deal or he will not do it because he knows the damage will be too severe, yet he cannot come back with the only deal he will ever get from the EU as he has dismissed it already. So what does he want?

The WA was the best deal possible for Ireland but unfortunately it couldn't get through the HoC. Ironically May tried hard to get it through and Corbyn refused to back it. Corbyn can make or break the WA but by holding out for something else such as another referendum he handed control to Johnson and Rees Mogg and probably ruined any chances for Labour at the next election.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From Robert Peston

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-08/varadkar-tries-to-keep-a-brexit-deal-alive-but-will-probably-fail-robert-peston-writes/




How can a contingency be temporary? (unless the unicorn is just around the corner)

This suggests Varadkar mentioned the "unless and until" clause, and Peston wrongly leapt to the conclusion of a time limit (other UK correspondents have done so previously).

Igotadose

Tell me how wrote: »

(I must repeat that I find this absolutely fascinating, the behaviour of such senior people in such provocative and childish practices while thinking it will help them get to what they want and for their supporters to constantly lower their self-respect in order to find it acceptable is incredible in my mind on a sociological level)

If it works for them, it shouldn't be a surprise they'd do it. Michelle Obama had a quote a few years ago, I don't remember it in detail, but she said something like "I'm on many corporate boards, and most of the people I meet there, aren't very bright." Just because someone's in a position of power (BoJo, Trump, Cummings, Giuliani), doesn't mean they're particularly intelligent, nor should we expect much from their followers. America and the UK really demonstrate the lack of critical thinking and effective education in the 'average' behavior you see on a daily basis.

Water John

Look May made a total mess, from start to finish. Vast majority in HOC supported a soft Brexit. If she had moved on this early on the hard views of a few extremist MPs would never have got traction. She was blinded by her aversion to immigration, this led to her, three red lines.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

I call it irrelevant, because both countries are currently in the EU

Nice avoidance there.

Its a deal between Ireland and UK to recognise divorces in each others countries post Brexit. The issue is outlined here.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/divorces-in-uk-wont-automatically-be-recognised-in-ireland-after-brexit-935234.html

Thankfully common sense prevailed.

I don't believe Ireland applies the EU rule- so national rules apply anyway- as with divorces in any third country

Leroy42

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The WA was the best deal possible for Ireland but unfortunately it couldn't get through the HoC. Ironically May tried hard to get it through and Corbyn refused to back it. Corbyn can make or break the WA but by holding out for something else such as another referendum he handed control to Johnson and Rees Mogg and probably ruined any chances for Labour at the next election.

Ireland already has a far superior deal than the WA. The WA was the best deal that the UK were going to get, and TM completely failed to explain the reasons why it was a good deal and instead continued to pretend that the UK had any power.

The one thing that Johnson has changed is that he no longer pretends that the UK has any power. They have very much taken the line that the EU have all the power and the UK is entirely at their mercy.

It quite a fall from grace but nobody is holding him to account so he is able to make the play.

The UK have two deals on the table. The WA, which leaves them worse off, or Remain, which leaves them battered and bruised but back to where they were.

But instead it seems HMG wants to go for the very thing they said was never even an option, and was only ever put out there as a tactic!

Tell me how

Igotadose wrote: »

If it works for them, it shouldn't be a surprise they'd do it. Michelle Obama had a quote a few years ago, I don't remember it in detail, but she said something like "I'm on many corporate boards, and most of the people I meet there, aren't very bright." Just because someone's in a position of power (BoJo, Trump, Cummings, Giuliani), doesn't mean they're particularly intelligent, nor should we expect much from their followers. America and the UK really demonstrate the lack of critical thinking and effective education in the 'average' behavior you see on a daily basis.

Yeah, Barack Obama said the same thing going from a city councillor, to state senator to president, that he met the same 'knuckleheads' at each level but had to just acknowledge that and try to find a way to work with them.

I suppose we've all seen it in our own lives, just because someone has the badge, doesn't mean they have the brains.

But it is fascinating to see it play out as it has done. Last year, or very early this year, I posted on one of these threads about all the 'Wow, did that just happen' moments that had happened during the Brexit process. I must dig it out and update it. There were about 20 items back then even!