Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ireland already has a far superior deal than the WA. The WA was the best deal that the UK were going to get, and TM completely failed to explain the reasons why it was a good deal and instead continued to pretend that the UK had any power.

The one thing that Johnson has changed is that he no longer pretends that the UK has any power. They have very much taken the line that the EU have all the power and the UK is entirely at their mercy.

It quite a fall from grace but nobody is holding him to account so he is able to make the play.

The UK have two deals on the table. The WA, which leaves them worse off, or Remain, which leaves them battered and bruised but back to where they were.

But instead it seems HMG wants to go for the very thing they said was never even an option, and was only ever put out there as a tactic!

Johnson wants to campaign in a binary GE of Leave or Remain on a No Deal Brexit. It paints him as Spartacus fighting against the odds (EU, parliament, judges, remoaners etc.) and sidelines The Brexit Party. Getting into government with a majority is the Holy Grail. Everything else is irrelevant.

hotmail.com

Tell me how wrote: »

Yeah, Barack Obama said the same thing going from a city councillor, to state senator to president, that he met the same 'knuckleheads' at each level but had to just acknowledge that and try to find a way to work with them.

I suppose we've all seen it in our own lives, just because someone has the badge, doesn't mean they have the brains.

But it is fascinating to see it play out as it has done. Last year, or very early this year, I posted on one of these threads about all the 'Wow, did that just happen' moments that had happened during the Brexit process. I must dig it out and update it. There were about 20 items back then even!

Inspiring.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The WA was the best deal possible for Ireland but unfortunately it couldn't get through the HoC

didn't get through HoC so far. In addition, WA is not as good as a Labour brexit or EEA+ brexit- the May brexit was pretty hard

WomanSkirtFan8

J Mysterio wrote: »

Look at the bloody comments underneath.
Makes my blood boil.

I generally wouldn't wish any ill-will or misfortune on anyone, but when i read comments like that, those individuals absolutely deserve the pain that's coming to them. God forgive me for saying or thinking that. :rolleyes:

listermint

hotmail.com wrote: »

Inspiring.

It's almost.


And I mean .


Almost like you have an automation setup for anywhere the president's name is mentioned and you have a comment about it.

Weird.

An Ciarraioch

If one assumes the Telegraph describes the official UK position, then Johnson will return to Dublin, and the meeting is viewed as the only means of preventing no deal:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1181673265871425536

Strazdas

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

I generally wouldn't wish any ill-will or misfortune on anyone, but when i read comments like that, those individuals absolutely deserve the pain that's coming to them. God forgive me for saying or thinking that. :rolleyes:

They're a ghastly bunch of individuals who hate just about anyone who isn't a right wing English nationalist.

I imagine sociologists would have a field day analysing why they have ended up with such hate and bigoted opinions.....what were the factors that led to this etc.

54and56

Enzokk wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From Robert Peston

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-08/varadkar-tries-to-keep-a-brexit-deal-alive-but-will-probably-fail-robert-peston-writes/

How can a contingency be temporary?

It is not, the backstop is only in operation until the trade deal is negotiated. Everyone should know this, Peston should as well. Once we know what deal they want, then the negotiations will be done on whether NI will be permanently in a CU and SM with the EU or not. The backstop doesn't tie them to the CU or SM permanently, but the trade negotiations will.:cool:

Which is when the principle (now proposed) of some form of NI consent may actually come into play.

Option 1. Stay with EU alignment for CU/SM and keep a seamless border with RoI but a customs border down the Irish Sea with GB.

Option 2. Go with the UK FTA, ditch alignment with EU CU/SM and erect a hard border with RoI.

Equally the way to put a time limit on the backstop without actually putting a time limit on the backstop (constructive ambiguity for optics) is to amend the WA such that the backstop remains in place unless and until replaced by arrangements in a newly negotiated FTA or "Alternative Arrangements" which are legally certain and operable or, and this is the new bit, until the NI assembly votes to ditch EU alignment which it can do after 4 years add then every 4 years unless the backstop has been replaced by arrangements agreed in a new FTA or legally operable "Alternative Arrangements".

Leroy42

Coveney seems open to some infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1181643935007023105?s=09

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Coveney seems open to some infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1181643935007023105?s=09

A misunderstanding by Crisp surely. I think Coveney is saying he is completely opposed to infrastructure anywhere but the reporter has misinterpreted what he is saying.

bilston

Michael Gove telling the HoC that the UK govt speaks for the 17.4m is saying let's get Brexit done.

Does that mean the UK govt doesn't speak for the other 45 m citizens of the UK?

I wish this Tory govt would just go away.

MPFGLB

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If one assumes the Telegraph describes the official UK position, then Johnson will return to Dublin, and the meeting is viewed as the only means of preventing no deal:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1181673265871425536

A deal was NEVER possible when May's deal was rejected
Many old wise Tories said this time and again
And if anyone is to blame for that not getting through the HoC its Corbyn/Labour (as well as ERG) because he would never no matter what vote with the Tories. He hates them more than the EU

Johnson could go back with Mays deal again ,try to get Labour on side and ignore the DUP...not likely

So it looks very likely if BJ stands by his word to die in a ditch rather than look for an extension then its no deal

It will be a disaster for farmers in NI and Republic

MPFGLB

BTW new polls saying 2.5 million leavers would now vote remain and many youngsters and those who didn't vote would vote remain

Democracy !!!

ninebeanrows

‘Lock them out’

Stop moaning ffs

I’m always wary of Leahys personal opinion pieces on things but his sources are usually on the money.

Thread worth a read

https://twitter.com/patleahyit/status/1181680188540772353?s=21


[url]

https://twitter.com/patleahyit/status/1181680652657274880?s=21[/url]

A Dub in Glasgo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The WA was the best deal possible for Ireland but unfortunately it couldn't get through the HoC. Ironically May tried hard to get it through and Corbyn refused to back it. Corbyn can make or break the WA but by holding out for something else such as another referendum he handed control to Johnson and Rees Mogg and probably ruined any chances for Labour at the next election.

It was the failure of the Tories to not bring parliament along with them on their Brexit journey. This was made even worse by the Tory imposed red lines so no, I don't believe May tried hard to reach consensus that would allow parliament to have a say in Brexit

Spanish Eyes

MPFGLB wrote: »

BTW new polls saying 2.5 million leavers would now vote remain and many youngsters and those who didn't vote would vote remain

Demographics. the elderly dyed in the wool Tories are shuffling off this mortal coil, as we all will in time too. No offence to them. But it brings a new dynamic into the mix.

Kalyke

Water John wrote: »

Look May made a total mess, from start to finish. Vast majority in HOC supported a soft Brexit. If she had moved on this early on the hard views of a few extremist MPs would never have got traction. She was blinded by her aversion to immigration, this led to her, three red lines.

The never ending story that confirms, this was a Conservative Party fiasco from beginning to ....well is this the end? Doubtful. What are we on now? Four Tory Prime Ministers in a row losing their Premiership because of the partys hatred of the EU? Almost certainly another coming soon. And the Tories are leading the UK into an Abyss again. God knows who and what they will drag with them.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Demographics. the elderly dyed in the wool Tories are shuffling off this mortal coil, as we all will in time too. No offence to them. But it brings a new dynamic into the mix.

I posted this the other day. Worth repeating. Since June 2016, due to demographics, the lead for Remain over Leave increases by 1350 voters every day.

Tea Shock

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the DUPs motivation, Jeffrey Donaldson has informed the world....

https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1181344152048549888?s=12

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If one assumes the Telegraph describes the official UK position, then Johnson will return to Dublin, and the meeting is viewed as the only means of preventing no deal

I'm sure if Boris comes to Dublin and surrenders unconditionally, we can work something out.

MPFGLB

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'm sure if Boris comes to Dublin and surrenders unconditionally, we can work something out.

Would be a great play


Boris Johnson holed up in the GPO with the Ghost of James Connolly

Strazdas

bilston wrote: »

Michael Gove telling the HoC that the UK govt speaks for the 17.4m is saying let's get Brexit done.

Does that mean the UK govt doesn't speak for the other 45 m citizens of the UK?

I wish this Tory govt would just go away.

They've been speaking for the last three years as if the 17m are "the British people".

It strikes me as unbelievably polarising and divisive......they're nearly saying the other 48m can go to hell.

maebee

Tea Shock wrote: »

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the DUPs motivation, Jeffrey Donaldson has informed the world....

https://twitter.com/sinnfeinireland/status/1181344152048549888?s=12

Jeffrey said he doesn't understand why there there shouldn't be a Unionist veto :eek: Incredible. He and his party think that there's no other parties in NI, other than Unionist parties. He thinks he's back in the days of gerrymandering.

Someone needs to tell him that NI voted remain and that every other party in NI, along with businesses, farmers, PSNI, cats and dogs, know that Brexit for NI is beyond stupid.

hotmail.com

listermint wrote: »

hotmail.com wrote: »

Inspiring.

It's almost.


And I mean .


Almost like you have an automation setup for anywhere the president's name is mentioned and you have a comment about it.

Weird.

Stop mentioning US presidents then?

hotmail.com

Sky News paper panellists attempted to discuss internal Irish issues and it was cringe. They clearly don't have a clue.

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The WA was the best deal possible for Ireland but unfortunately it couldn't get through the HoC. Ironically May tried hard to get it through and Corbyn refused to back it. Corbyn can make or break the WA but by holding out for something else such as another referendum he handed control to Johnson and Rees Mogg and probably ruined any chances for Labour at the next election.

There was a chance to get a cross party Brexit deal, but May scuppered it with her first speech where she outlined her red lines and marginalized the opposition parties to force through a Tory only Brexit. Norway has voted against joining the EU by 52%-48% and they are in EFTA and the single market. If the UK proposed that then Labour would have gone with the Government.

May's speech and red lines made the WA toxic even if it is the only deal realistically they would have gotten. Had she been a better politician she would have still been in charge and the UK out of the EU by now. Don't forget it was Tory rebels against her deal that sunk it, not Labour. Labour doesn't have a majority in the HoC and thus cannot enact or win votes. It needs rebels from the Tories to do that and Johnson did that twice before deciding he liked the deal.

54and56 wrote: »

Which is when the principle (now proposed) of some form of NI consent may actually come into play.

Option 1. Stay with EU alignment for CU/SM and keep a seamless border with RoI but a customs border down the Irish Sea with GB.

Option 2. Go with the UK FTA, ditch alignment with EU CU/SM and erect a hard border with RoI.

Equally the way to put a time limit on the backstop without actually putting a time limit on the backstop (constructive ambiguity for optics) is to amend the WA such that the backstop remains in place unless and until replaced by arrangements in a newly negotiated FTA or "Alternative Arrangements" which are legally certain and operable or, and this is the new bit, until the NI assembly votes to ditch EU alignment which it can do after 4 years add then every 4 years unless the backstop has been replaced by arrangements agreed in a new FTA or legally operable "Alternative Arrangements".

If the UK is serious about peace on this island then there will never be a discussion about the border and the only Brexit they realistically can get is BRINO. Anything else opens up so much trouble and looking for consent in NI would be taking a flame close to a tinderbox, it would be looking for trouble.

The reality of Brexit and NI means the actual deal they can get is nothing like they promised the people, but liars will lie and people are going to die if they aren't stopped.

Shelga

Peter Lilley on Newsnight now saying "we obviously have to focus on what can get through the House of Commons"- never mind it it destroys the GFA, never mind if the 27 other countries of the EU think it's a disaster, never mind if it shatters the supposed impartiality of the government towards NI, as it gives the DUP a veto- it's all about the UK.

The arrogance of the man is sickening.

10000maniacs

Peter Lilley comparing Northern Ireland to Corsica and the Straits of Messina on Newsnight now.
"Imagine if France was to have customs procedures on trade between mainland France and Corsica. Or Italy was to have checks on goods on the Straits of Messina passing between Italy and Sicily". These guys are fruitloops.

Mr.Nice Guy

Yes, many of these contributors on Newsnight seem to think what cuts the mustard in Westminster solves the issue. A dialogue with themselves yet again.