Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

NIMAN wrote: »

Re: medicine supply to Ireland.

I have heard regularly that we would suffer a medicine supply problem in the event of a NDB.

Why could we not just get our supply through Europe instead?

Are all the drugs made in the UK?

No. In fact there aren't many made in the UK at all. Vaguely remember it being said that there were four or five that would probably have to be flown in. It's not an issue.

Fr Tod Umptious

NIMAN wrote: »

Re: medicine supply to Ireland.

I have heard regularly that we would suffer a medicine supply problem in the event of a NDB.

Why could we not just get our supply through Europe instead?

Are all the drugs made in the UK?

Supply chains straight from Europe are probably not as numerous as supply chains that run through the UK.

In the short term Ireland will struggle, but in time the volume going directly to and from Europe rather than using the UK will increase.

People I have spoken to said they are not worried about no deal for things like Santa presents, they say they will just buy from Amazon dot DE rather than Amazon dot CO dot UK.
Well newsflash, the products shipped by dot DE probably transit through dot UK.

Could drugs even be sold or used in the UK a day after no deal? They wouldn't be regulated by anyone so it sounds like a huge legal risk.

lawred2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Cannot trust MLAs or parties in the Assembly. They can barely agree on the day of the week.

Why should the alliance party's position be of any less standing than SF or the DUP/UUP?

Seth Brundle

Deleted User wrote: »

Could drugs even be sold or used in the UK a day after no deal? They wouldn't be regulated by anyone so it sounds like a huge legal risk.

Presumably the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency will continue the existing EU rules and evolve them over time as they see fit.

Edit: actually they've some details online about a possible no-deal changeover...
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/mhra-guidance-and-publications-on-a-possible-no-deal-scenario

prawnsambo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

People I have spoken to said they are not worried about no deal for things like Santa presents, they say they will just buy from Amazon dot DE rather than Amazon dot CO dot UK.
Well newsflash, the products shipped by dot DE probably transit through dot UK.

They may currently transit through the UK. But there are other routes available and they will take the quickest and most cost-effective one. The main reason not to use .co.uk, is not just transit time, but because of customs costs and delays that would ensue.

Shelga

I don’t think it can be said enough- Brexit has got to be the stupidest, most pointless domestic decision taken by any western democracy in modern history.

Tea Shock

New attacks on Bercow, this time from Farage

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1181932746555432962?s=20

He's on The Late Late Show on Friday night (Bercow that is)

That's one of the few bits of the LLS season I'll actually watch!

Tippex

RTE reporting "Michel Barnier says EU is not in a position where it can find an agreement on Brexit"

Link here https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/1009/1082001-brexit/

Fr Tod Umptious

prawnsambo wrote: »

They may currently transit through the UK. But there are other routes available and they will take the quickest and most cost-effective one. The main reason not to use .co.uk, is not just transit time, but because of customs costs and delays that would ensue.

But on the short term, if a truck carrying your goods from DE pre Brexit took an hour to get through Dover and now it takes a day then there will be major disruption to getting goods delivered.

Seth Brundle

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t think it can be said enough- Brexit has got to be the stupidest, most pointless domestic decision taken by any western democracy in modern history.

I think that there may be some positives (can't think of any myself) but the main reason it has been a complete disaster to-date has been it's implementation.
There has been next to no thought about the impact of it or how the UK would manage afterwards. It was allowed become a political football. People with little knowlede on certain matters were suddenly allowed to become experts by a biased media.
They've created a large chasm between themselves and so many other countries despite them wanting to create trade deals with those countries.
They've allowed the relationship with their neighbours deteriorate to a level not seen in decades.
It has been a perfect storm of incompetence, propoganda, lies and deception with very few people going to emerge better off after the dust settles.

liamtech

GM228 wrote: »

An important passage from today's judgement from the Inner House:-

https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/search-judgments/judgment?id=7a2e72a7-8980-69d2-b500-ff0000d74aa7



The court has essentially stated that providing the need arises if Johnson does not send an extension letter it will issue an order that he must do so within a small time frame and if he still refuses to do so it will consider using the nobile officium power to authorise someone else to do so. The Outer House judgement from Monday is effectively null and void.

Is timing not a serious issue for this though? I completely accept what you are saying and i agree with it but take this hypothetical Calendar as an example

Saturday 19Th - Still no deal, no vote to accept no deal - Benn Act comes into force

Sunday 20th - Its sunday nothing will happen

Monday 21st - PM Still hasnt asked for extension - refuses to take questions - cabinet is secluded

Tuesday - 22nd Opposition Demand action or they will return to court - still no action by BoJo

Wednesday 23rd- Court of sessions as you highlighted are involved, lets assume for a moment that BoJo is waffling about being in 'Extremely Tight Negotiations - mustn't lose face, typical Bojo nonsense etc'

Thursday 24th - Scottish Court issue 48hrs order wherein PM must comply

Friday 25th - Further Demands and reminders of Deadline

Saturday 26th - Deadline expires - assume perhaps HOC is sitting - demands made and rejected - PM Announces he will challenge Scottish court in Supreme court

Sunday 27th - Sunday Nothing happens

Monday 28th - Supreme court Kicks off - and thats assuming it even can start a new case that quickly - if not then No-Deal goes through by default

Tuesday 29th - Supreme Court in session with both sides arguing

Wednesday 30th - See above, more arguing in court

Thursday 31st BDAY - at this point is there time to get an extension that can be agreed??? By all 27?

If i were the EU i would, given this PM's deliberate attempts to muck about, and his willingness to lie - the EU should now agree that if an extension is requested by the UK, it is automatically accepted - This can be done whereby the EU27 simply agree that in the case of it being requested for the reasons outlined in the Benn act, and that accepting a UK Election and/or change of government is immanent - that under said circumstances an extension is permissible and has been PRE-APPROVED

EDIT - of course if the opposition parties let it go this far without a VONC, and a care- taker pm, then they must hold part of the blame
- They will have allowed BJ to steer the UK off the cliff
- They will have refused a VONC on the basis that they cant agree on supporting Corbyn as caretaker

prawnsambo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But on the short term, if a truck carrying your goods from DE pre Brexit took an hour to get through Dover and now it takes a day then there will be major disruption to getting goods delivered.

But they won't take that route. It's pretty obvious that the UK would be a no-go for freight traffic that doesn't actually have to go there. You couldn't even TIR the containers if it's mixed loads; some for UK, some for Ireland.

But I doubt anything coming from Amazon de is coming through the UK anyway. The quickest route would be through Rotterdam or Amsterdam. Or (if expedited), flown in.

briany

No point in believing the rules will hold firm for a man who's willing to break them, or at least engage in a level of gamesmanship not seen since the Israeli goalkeeper Dudu Aouate and his performance v. Ireland at Landsdowne Road, 2005.

What happened to the Benn Act's request date being pushed forward??

An Ciarraioch

liamtech wrote: »

Is timing not a serious issue for this though? I completely accept what you are saying and i agree with it but take this hypothetical Calendar as an example

Saturday 19Th - Still no deal, no vote to accept no deal - Benn Act comes into force

Sunday 20th - Its sunday nothing will happen

Monday 21st - PM Still hasnt asked for extension - refuses to take questions - cabinet is secluded

Tuesday - 22nd Opposition Demand action or they will return to court - still no action by BoJo

Wednesday 23rd- Court of sessions as you highlighted are involved, lets assume for a moment that BoJo is waffling about being in 'Extremely Tight Negotiations - mustn't lose face, typical Bojo nonsense etc'

Thursday 24th - Scottish Court issue 48hrs order wherein PM must comply

Friday 25th - Further Demands and reminders of Deadline

Saturday 26th - Deadline expires - assume perhaps HOC is sitting - demands made and rejected - PM Announces he will challenge Scottish court in Supreme court

Sunday 27th - Sunday Nothing happens

Monday 28th - Supreme court Kicks off

Tuesday 29th - Supreme Court in session with both sides arguing

Wednesday 30th - See above, more arguing in court

Thursday 31st BDAY - at this point is there time to get an extension that can be agreed??? By all 27?

If i were the EU i would, given this PM's deliberate attempts to muck about, and his willingness to lie - the EU should now agree that if an extension is requested by the UK, it is automatically accepted - This can be done whereby the EU27 simply agree that in the case of it being requested for the reasons outlined in the Benn act, and that accepting a UK Election and/or change of government is immanent - that under said circumstances an extension is permissible and has been PRE-APPROVED

EDIT - of course if the opposition parties let it go this far without a VONC, and a care- taker pm, then they must hold part of the blame
- They will have allowed BJ to steer the UK off the cliff
- They will have refused a VONC on the basis that they cant agree on supporting Corbyn as caretaker

Presumably the opposition would seek a court hearing next week, which would be scheduled for the 21st, in order to deliver an instant ruling should Johnson refuse to seek the extension.

ToBeFrank123

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. In fact there aren't many made in the UK at all. Vaguely remember it being said that there were four or five that would probably have to be flown in. It's not an issue.

In many cases, the drugs are manufactured in Ireland, shipped to distribution centres in the UK and then distributed back to Ireland. Odd arrangement. Hopefully distribution centres will be setup in Ireland post Brexit.

A Dub in Glasgo

liamtech wrote: »

Is timing not a serious issue for this though? I completely accept what you are saying and i agree with it but take this hypothetical Calendar as an example

Saturday 19Th - Still no deal, no vote to accept no deal - Benn Act comes into force

Sunday 20th - Its sunday nothing will happen

Monday 21st - PM Still hasnt asked for extension - refuses to take questions - cabinet is secluded

Tuesday - 22nd Opposition Demand action or they will return to court - still no action by BoJo

Wednesday 23rd- Court of sessions as you highlighted are involved, lets assume for a moment that BoJo is waffling about being in 'Extremely Tight Negotiations - mustn't lose face, typical Bojo nonsense etc'

Thursday 24th - Scottish Court issue 48hrs order wherein PM must comply

Friday 25th - Further Demands and reminders of Deadline

Saturday 26th - Deadline expires - assume perhaps HOC is sitting - demands made and rejected - PM Announces he will challenge Scottish court in Supreme court

Sunday 27th - Sunday Nothing happens

Monday 28th - Supreme court Kicks off - and thats assuming it even can start a new case that quickly - if not then No-Deal goes through by default

Tuesday 29th - Supreme Court in session with both sides arguing

Wednesday 30th - See above, more arguing in court

Thursday 31st BDAY - at this point is there time to get an extension that can be agreed??? By all 27?

If i were the EU i would, given this PM's deliberate attempts to muck about, and his willingness to lie - the EU should now agree that if an extension is requested by the UK, it is automatically accepted - This can be done whereby the EU27 simply agree that in the case of it being requested for the reasons outlined in the Benn act, and that accepting a UK Election and/or change of government is immanent - that under said circumstances an extension is permissible and has been PRE-APPROVED

EDIT - of course if the opposition parties let it go this far without a VONC, and a care- taker pm, then they must hold part of the blame
- They will have allowed BJ to steer the UK off the cliff
- They will have refused a VONC on the basis that they cant agree on supporting Corbyn as caretaker

My understanding is that this case will not go to the UK Supreme Court as NobOff has no equivalence in the rest of the UK and the court that ruled today is the highest court in Scotland

liamtech

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presumably the opposition would seek a court hearing next week, which would be scheduled for the 21st, in order to deliver an instant ruling should Johnson refuse to seek the extension.

That is possible but does it not seem as though UK Courts prefer to rule after the fact? The cases in Scottish courts effectively said, come back to us if/when he breaks the law

Its only 12 days between the 19th and the 31st - there is plenty of mud BoJo can throw in those few days, with Courts, Supreme Courts and spoiling tactics

Hurrache

liamtech wrote: »

That is possible but does it not seem as though UK Courts prefer to rule after the fact?

Outside of Minority Report you can't prosecute someone for something they didn't do so there's nothing than can be done until the time comes.

liamtech

Hurrache wrote: »

Outside of Minority Report you can't prosecute someone for something they didn't do so there's nothing than can be done until the time comes.

Yes but thats my point - given that its saturday the 19th then the Scottish court probably wont issue their order (with a deadline) until some time after the 21st

It would all be a spoiling tactic of course but with 12 days on the clock after 19th - and 2 of those being sunday - its not impossible that BoJo simply has a time table of things to do in order to delay as long as possible

Stop moaning ffs

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t think it can be said enough- Brexit has got to be the stupidest, most pointless domestic decision taken by any western democracy in modern history.

I’d point to America and trump. But no. You’re actually right. And it’s going to roll on for decades

robinph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Presumably the opposition would seek a court hearing next week, which would be scheduled for the 21st, in order to deliver an instant ruling should Johnson refuse to seek the extension.

I thought the decision today by the Scottish court was that they were just going to sit on it for a while so that there is no need to resubmit the case on the 19th. The judges just pull it out from their in tray and crack on with issuing their judgement in order to save time?

Edit:

BBC News wrote:

Lord Carloway wrote: "Until the time for sending the letter has arrived, the PM has not acted unlawfully, whatever he and his officials are reported to have said privately or in public.

"The situation remains fluid. Over the next two weeks, circumstances will inevitably change."

He said the "normal course" would be to dismiss the petition, but this would leave little time for the campaigners to lodge a new one in the event of Mr Johnson refusing to comply with the Benn Act.

The judges therefore continued the case until 21 October, because "the position ought to be significantly clearer" by then.

They are just delaying the issuing of their judgement, and also not giving an answer regarding what that might be as if they said they would request the extension then it lets Johnson off the hook. Decision has almost certainly been made, just not being issued until needed.

prawnsambo

Hurrache wrote: »

Outside of Minority Report you can't prosecute someone for something they didn't do so there's nothing than can be done until the time comes.

That should probably be on the cover of anything coming out of Downing Street and the Tory Party generally at the moment. And of course the plot could apply to everything that has come out of Downing Street because we all know, well in advance, what they're going to do. This has so many levels...

Zubeneschamali

liamtech wrote: »

of course if the opposition parties let it go this far without a VONC, and a care- taker pm, then they must hold part of the blame

Your timeline is far too loose, if Johnson does not send the letter on the 19th, the Court will give him hours to do it on the 21st, and then have the letter sent. Done and dusted on the 22nd.


The opposition don't want a VoNC yet, they want to force Johnson to send the letter, resign, or get arrested.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

Could drugs even be sold or used in the UK a day after no deal? They wouldn't be regulated by anyone so it sounds like a huge legal risk.

Part of the UK's preparation was the wholesale translation of EU law into UK law; the UK can unilaterally recognise EU standards as compatible with post-Brexit UK standards until such time as it figures out which of them it wants to change.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But on the short term, if a truck carrying your goods from DE pre Brexit took an hour to get through Dover and now it takes a day then there will be major disruption to getting goods delivered.

Amazon have recently opened up a big distribution depot near Amiens, right beside a hitherto unused airport. The Irish market is hardly a major component of their business model, but if they need to get things to Dublin in time for Christmas, they have the resources.

The more some companies shift distribution from the UK to continental Europe, the easier it will be for other companies to piggy back on these new facilities. I'd be surprised if some enterprising logistics business hasn't already thought of creating an "Ireland" depot somewhere on the continent.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Your timeline is far too loose, if Johnson does not send the letter on the 19th, the Court will give him hours to do it on the 21st, and then have the letter sent. Done and dusted on the 22nd.

liamtech wrote: »

The cases in Scottish courts effectively said, come back to us if/when he breaks the law

Its only 12 days between the 19th and the 31st - there is plenty of mud BoJo can throw in those few days, with Courts, Supreme Courts and spoiling tactics

Zub' is correct. You're padding out the timeline with irrelevancies.
19th Oct - no letter => trigger Benn Act.
21st Oct, 10am - application to the Court;
21st Oct, 10:30 Court directs Johnson to prepare and deliver letter by 16:00
21st Oct, 16:05 Johnson hasn't complied, Court issues NobOff.

Even if the general impression of court proceedings is one of interminable slowness, courts can move incredibly quickly when the need arises.

Mefistofelino

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

In many cases, the drugs are manufactured in Ireland, shipped to distribution centres in the UK and then distributed back to Ireland. Odd arrangement. Hopefully distribution centres will be setup in Ireland post Brexit.

Its not that straightforward. For a whole lot of reasons, including taxation and concentration of operations, drug manufacture takes place in several steps across several countries. There are very few manufactures who have the wherewithal in Ireland to carry out the full process from raw materials to distribution.

The usual set-up is that facility in Ireland will manufacture the active ingredient. That will then be shipped to, for example, a facility in Benelux where it is further processed, formed into tablets or capsules and packaged. These may in turn be distributed to the Marketing Authorisation Holder for Ireland which may not be in Ireland (and is frequently in the UK) and from there to medical wholesalers in Ireland before arriving at the local pharmacy.

Fr Tod Umptious

CelticRambler wrote: »

Part of the UK's preparation was the wholesale translation of EU law into UK law; the UK can unilaterally recognise EU standards as compatible with post-Brexit UK standards until such time as it figures out which of them it wants to change.



Amazon have recently opened up a big distribution depot near Amiens, right beside a hitherto unused airport. The Irish market is hardly a major component of their business model, but if they need to get things to Dublin in time for Christmas, they have the resources.

The more some companies shift distribution from the UK to continental Europe, the easier it will be for other companies to piggy back on these new facilities. I'd be surprised if some enterprising logistics business hasn't already thought of creating an "Ireland" depot somewhere on the continent.

It doesn't matter how many warehouses Amazon have in France.
For the Irish consumer it matters if those goods can get to Ireland.

If you take away the benefits of the landbridge overnight, which is what no deal would do, you will struggle to replace the capacity on other routes.

I'm not saying other routes and other options are no available, I'm saying in the short term, especially in the run up the Christmas those routes will come under serious pressure if the landbridge is essentially "degraded"

robinph

CelticRambler wrote: »

Zub' is correct. You're padding out the timeline with irrelevancies.
19th Oct - no letter => trigger Benn Act.
21st Oct, 10am - application to the Court;
21st Oct, 10:30 Court directs Johnson to prepare and deliver letter by 16:00
21st Oct, 16:05 Johnson hasn't complied, Court issues NobOff.

Even if the general impression of court proceedings is one of interminable slowness, courts can move incredibly quickly when the need arises.

Think you can shorten that timeline by half an hour as the application has already been made to the court and they are just sitting on it until the 21st to see if it's needed.

Daemonic

prawnsambo wrote: »

But they won't take that route. It's pretty obvious that the UK would be a no-go for freight traffic that doesn't actually have to go there. You couldn't even TIR the containers if it's mixed loads; some for UK, some for Ireland.

But I doubt anything coming from Amazon de is coming through the UK anyway. The quickest route would be through Rotterdam or Amsterdam. Or (if expedited), flown in.

My orders from amazon.de last year stopped off at East Midlands airport. I recall because it seemed stuck there for 24hrs and the clock was ticking.