Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Panrich wrote: »

Christ we can't keep anything to ourselves can we? This is a potential breakthrough and we've got to keep a lid on it and not give oxygen to the DUP etc.

There's going to be an election though. I can't see how parliament can re-open with a QS when the opposition outnumber the government. Maybe they will allow it to re-open, if only to keep Johnson dangling on a string until they're ready, but they can only keep that going for so long before it backfires on them.

Panrich

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

There's too little time left to be keeping everything under wraps, and if the past few days of leaks from No. 10 is anything to go by it is the correct decision to make public statements. The DUP have already lost their balance of power, but if there is a proper possibility of a compromise or deal there's the potential to replace the DUPs 10 votes elsewhere.

I hear you but IF we are beginning to coalesce around a deal involving NI staying in the CU/SM it needs to be fed and developed via Barnier and his team and not leaked like this. Johnson could retreat back to familiar rhetoric very quickly if the mood music reflects a capitulation on his side. Get the deal in place before breaking out the champagne and gloating how the UK has moved significantly.

ToBeFrank123

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

Tea Shock

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

All long, Johnson has been trying to appease the DUP for fear he will need them again after an election.

Perhaps he has now realized he has no choice but to tell them where to go!
But I have my doubts that Ireland are being offered everything they want automatically.

It will be a border in the Irish sea effective until and if a one-off NI only referendum puts an end to it

Something like that - best guess.

Tell me how

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

DUP can go sing if there is enough other support for it elsewhere.
It's the members of the ERG who are more likely to oppose movement on customs if Pat Leahy is correct with the direction the tide may be starting to flow.

farmchoice

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

if they did a deal, singed and sealed tomorrow, with parliament prorogued there is not enough time to debate a queens speech then debate and pass a revised WA and then pass all the necessary legislation before the 31st.


so i dont think this is about doing a deal now, its abut giving the impression that there is a deal to be done in the extension following an election the dup will be removed from the equation.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm going to take a wild stab at this one. Any new proposal the DUP will say No to.

The DUP walked themselves into this (if it's NI only backstop) by agreeing to SM rules applying to Ni only. And maybe that's them being pragmatic for once. The dogs in the street know that their current stance was losing them support. Polling was showing them under pressure for three Westminster seats.

ToBeFrank123

You can't really rely on the ERG or DUP to get a deal through. I think the ERG would be happy enough with No Deal.

Johnson will need some Labour votes and it would be great if Corbyn decided to back a deal. The bigger the numbers voting for it, the more the DUP and ERG will have to fall into line, as they thrive on division.

Panrich

And here is the rowback from the other side..

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1182322838532952065

It looks like there might be two paths that diverged.

Quin_Dub

Johnson absolutely does not want a deal before an election.

If he gets a deal , then Farage et al will hound him as a "traitor" or some such and cause the Tories to lose a bunch of seats

He needs to be "forced" to send the letter , get the extension and then campaign on "New Perfect deal or No Deal" which allow him to potentially shut-down both sides - He can cover the BP voters by telling them that No Deal is back on the table and he can cover the other Leavers by telling them that the Unicorn Covered Sunny uplands are just in sight.

Once he gets his majority without the DUP he does the only deal possible.

** This is his plan , how grounded in reality it is is an entirely different question.

farmchoice

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Johnson absolutely does not want a deal before an election.

If he gets a deal , then Farage et al will hound him as a "traitor" or some such and cause the Tories to lose a bunch of seats

He needs to be "forced" to send the letter , get the extension and then campaign on "New Perfect deal or No Deal" which allow him to potentially shut-down both sides - He can cover the BP voters by telling them that No Deal is back on the table and he can cover the other Leavers by telling them that the Unicorn Covered Sunny uplands are just in sight.

Once he gets his majority without the DUP he does the only deal possible.

** This is his plan , how grounded in reality it is is an entirely different question.

agreed,talking out of both sides of his mount is providing quite successful for him so far, whilst at the same time setting Cummings up as the bad guy.

farmchoice

farmchoice wrote: »

it is a strange one, i reckon the Irish have a reason for having this meeting that will become apparent later.

i doubt it is just leo trying to save the day. Number 10 has briefed pretty shamelessly against the Irish this week maybe merrion st have had enough and are going to get their retaliation in first this time.
or perhaps they are happy to take the blame from the torys and pretty much finally collapse the talks thereby forcing boris into taking a position on what he is going to do next.
all the anti Leo anti Irish thing in the papers is not doing one bit of harm to Leo or to Ireland, if anything it is good for Leo from a domestic point of view, the more the Brits deride him and lie about him the more respect he gets at home for not backing down.

i think this is what they are doing Irish briefing ''deal on'' now the Brits have to pour cold water on it.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

At this stage, we need to agree a deal because I don't think No Deal is a viable option. As I posted yesterday, the Irish Central Bank have estimated 110,000 job loses and 6% drop in growth which would put us into recession. And they can hardly be accused of being part of Project Fear.

No we do not. We accepted a bad border deal 100 years ago- and thousands are dead because of it and it resulted in vast economic damage. No deal is better then a bad deal.
Furthermore, 6% spread over several years is little when we are growing at 8% p.a. and 110k at risk jobs is little when we've picked up 200k in the last 2 years alone.
Furthermore, much of that harm happens no matter the form of brexit.
So why pay the price of an eternity living with a bad border to avoid a short term minor/moderate economic set back?

The high horse brigade

So what have I missed today then? Can someone give a brief synopsis, I can't trust the media

liamtech

prawnsambo wrote: »

So Pat Leahy seems to think that there's been movement on the CU, but no idea if Varadkar has offered something in return. But even if this is true and there's movement towards a deal, parliament is now shut, it can only re-open with a QS and there's very little likelihood of that being passed, so it kind of seems a bit moot.

Are the British Press deliberately up-playing the Johnson Varadkar Meeting? I listened to Sky News live at about 3:30 and they described (words to the effect)

• Significant Progress
• Can See a pathway to a deal

and yet

Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains.

from Mujtaba Rahman

If there is a 'break though' what could it actually be? Catching up but interested in the opinions

fash

liamtech wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

So Pat Leahy seems to think that there's been movement on the CU, but no idea if Varadkar has offered something in return. But even if this is true and there's movement towards a deal, parliament is now shut, it can only re-open with a QS and there's very little likelihood of that being passed, so it kind of seems a bit moot.

Are the British Press deliberately up-playing the Johnson Varadkar Meeting? I listened to Sky News live at about 3:30 and they described (words to the effect)

• Significant Progress
• Can See a pathway to a deal

and yet

Caution weariness on briefs of a 3h private meet between @BorisJohnson and @LeoVaradkar. 2/ Absolutely clear that UK position - that its customs territory remains intact - remains.

from Mujtaba Rahman

If there is a 'break though' what could it actually be? Catching up but interested in the opinions

The upbeat is coming from Varadkar.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1182328414864203777
Frankly from my perspective, the more upbeat the Irish, the less upbeat the reality. Because the upbeat is then a big spin that the UK will find hard to counteract. How does Cummings spin this "we're really positive, we can definitely come to an agreement and we are on a great path- it will just take a few weeks (past 31st October)"?
Whereas if there was a secret actual deal shafting (e.g.) DUP, then I would expect them to keep quiet.

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

No we do not. We accepted a bad border deal 100 years ago- and thousands are dead because of it and it resulted in vast economic damage. No deal is better then a bad deal.
Furthermore, 6% spread over several years is little when we are growing at 8% p.a. and 110k at risk jobs is little when we've picked up 200k in the last 2 years alone.
Furthermore, much of that harm happens no matter the form of brexit.
So why pay the price of an eternity living with a bad border to avoid a short term minor/moderate economic set back?

This. Very much this. May's deal was effectively a no deal brexit from our point of view, just with a stay of execution. Eventually the same damage would occur, but it would be spread out a bit longer. It was barely the lesser of two evils.

Tell me how

fash wrote: »

The upbeat is coming from Varadkar.
Frankly from my perspective, the more upbeat the Irish, the less upbeat the reality. Because the upbeat is then a big spin that the UK will find hard to counteract. How does Cummings spin this "we're really positive, we can definitely come to an agreement and we are on a great path- it will just take a few weeks (past 31st October)"?
Whereas if there was a secret actual deal shafting (e.g.) DUP, then I would expect them to keep quiet.

It could be part of the wider game where no one expects there to be a deal but Ireland, the EU are suggesting they are open to try to control the narrative instead of giving UK media free reign to label the EU as intransigent.

cameramonkey

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

Imreoir2

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

I can't see how this is going to do the British any good. The cold realities of the British position will still be just as hard as they always have been. They can't get a deal until Ireland is satisified on the question of the border. Give Leo a false story today, and you are exactly where you were yesterday when that is revealed, except of course that you have burnt even more of whatever shred of good will remains on the Irish and EU side of the table.

prawnsambo

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

This makes zero sense. You do know that the European Council makes the decision on a WA, of which Leo has one of the votes? Johnson bailing on whatever he's discussed or agreed today will get him exactly nowhere.

moon2

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

This assumes the government are completely naive. Despite the weeks of lies and retractions from the UK you're assuming that our government well and truly believe that this is on the road to be resolved and the UK are on board.

Perhaps a more accurate reading of the events of today would be to assume everyone is aware of the (apparent) lies which spread from Boris and his team, and this is a way to put Ireland/Europe ahead of the next round of "Europe collapsed the talks" finger pointing.

davedanon

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

The tired old 'little Leo will do as he's told by his masters in Germany and France' trope again? Why would Leo be trying to strike a deal with Boris as some sort of junior partner? We are the EU. The EU is us. This patronising nonsense about the 'power relationship' between the big and small EU nations is really annoying. The second a big EU nation bullies a smaller one around, the whole project is as good as dead. Every EU nation has an equal say, and an equal vote. Why can't people get their heads around this?

I don't know what was going on today, probably just some political manoeuvring, and the reported movement on the British side, if true, is the only other plausible expanation. Leo did not go over there cap in hand to get fobbed off by some Boris bull****, that's for sure.

fash

cameramonkey wrote: »

The Brits will tell the Irish don't worry lads you will get everything you need, we just need to keep it under our hats and will sort it all out next week. Leo will probably believe that but its a old Brit ploy. It means nothing until you get it in writing with BJ announcing to all and sundry, even at that you cant trust him. Next week all that Leo thought that Brits had conceded to will magically vanish. This is the British way in negotiations no one should be fooled by todays charade.

They will not do a deal now when they have to deal with the real power brokers in Europe later, why would they concede now?

Leo was handy to bounce a few ideas off and then send him on his merry way thinking he has got a deal of sorts. He is not a serious operator as far as the Brits are concerned.

I don't think so- I'd see positivity from Leo being about sabotaging negative narratives from the UK - which in and of itself is not a great sign as why would you be worried about negating narratives if there is something good - etc.
I seriously doubt it is because Leo is "nice but dim and simple".

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182314519416184839

We can always depend on Tony.

briany

Given the UK government's track record on general honesty, I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension. And that would be highly dangerous.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension.

He has to ask for the extension unless he gets a deal, it's the law.


And even if he gets a deal, he'll have to ask for an extension anyway, there isn't time to put any deal in place before the 31st.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

Given the UK government's track record on general honesty, I'd be concerned that Johnson's just promising things in order to give the impression that things are moving forward and therefore not have to ask for the extension. And that would be highly dangerous.

Yes, it's still totally up in the air. Nobody knows what he 'promised' Leo, meaning there is a considerable risk the whole thing could simply collapse again (Johnson could just deny ever promising the Taoiseach anything or claim it was a misunderstanding).

Mr.Nice Guy

Don't think anything will come from this. Both sides need to be seen to be trying to get a deal before the inevitable split. I think our side have played it well by making it clear that there is an appetite for an agreement, so that if/when it doesn't come about, we won't be the scapegoat for the blame game by being labelled inflexible. Likely now means Barnier will bear the brunt of the blame in the coming days rather than Varadkar.

Dyr

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182314519416184839

We can always depend on Tony.

To report the government line straight from an off the record briefing? People criticize the BBC journos for doing the same thing. While there's less kite flying and blaggarding with Connelly, he's not doing anything too dissimilar.