Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is no deal.

Consent and customs still to be resolved.

Varadkar said this after the meeting. He was not as positive as the media are making out.

Nor was the statement as positive as the media making out either.

Sounds like they are as far away as ever. No chance of a deal before 31st October anyways. Johnson will request an extension but there doesn't seem to be much hope of a deal during the extension either.

Johnson wants an election but might be trapped by ftp act.

There is no way this will be resolved by 31st October. Onto the next cliff edge.

Kermit.de.frog

Denis Staunton of the IT suggesting NI could be part of both customs zones on the back of the discussions but EU will still require Irish sea checks (click for thread).

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1182379071717683201

Sounds more and more like NI is going to become a DMZ between Ireland(EU) & GB.
Nearest thing to a win win I think we're ever going to get, if it pisses off both NI tribes, then it must be good.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

Like others have said I don't think any of it is true, neither of those things happened.

woohoo!!!

If Varadkar gets burnt and BJ is lying and we'll know more tomorrow then he can say I tried my best at the 11th hour etc.

If on the other hand something is in the offing towards a deal, everyone knows that it'll have to spun in Westminster as Ireland blinking or something. But who cares once we secure what we want how it's spun.

Tippex

So my take is the Leo Varadkar has gone back and reported to the EU on what went on.
And said something along the lines of we made some progress and they are moving closer but realistically this is not going to be ane overnight agreement.

Then Michel Barnier comes out with "We are not close enough to get a deal by the 31st October so we are extending an extension to the UK in order to negotiate this deal fully"

cameramonkey

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was probably party politics. However, Leo had to be seen to engage positively. There's a blame game to be won.

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

fash

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Ouch - that is the sound of a number of pants in NI being pooped...

Hurrache

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

What mistake?

Professor Moriarty

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

No. The optics of him refusing to meet Johnson would have been terrible. Better to play along while Johnson twists himself into knots.

Kermit.de.frog

cameramonkey wrote: »

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

The British side have not said anything yet but Varadkar seemed content with what he heard.

That's all we can do for now.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The British side have not said anything yet but Varadkar seemed content with what he heard.

That's all we can do for now.

To be honest, we haven't a clue what is really going on. Even the political journos in Ire and GB are trying to guess what the joint statement today actually meant.

woohoo!!!

cameramonkey wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was probably party politics. However, Leo had to be seen to engage positively. There's a blame game to be won.

He didnt need to engage, BJ needed him as a prop. Leo should not have agreed to the meeting. It was a no win situation for Ireland maybe Leo actually believed BJ was sincere which is a gross mistake.

Maybe he took a risk but so what, he's not going to refuse to meet the British PM, who only yesterday had his great DUP endorsed proposal trashed in Brussels. Now I've no great faith that there's a breakthrough but Johnson knows that his next step is being forced to send that letter for an extension. And Johnson's biggest concern is keeping himself as PM after a GE.

54and56

Strazdas wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is 100% correct it has to be said...

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1182363274043678720

No. those were no negotiations : it was two guys walking around the grounds of a hotel at lunchtime and having a chat.

Negotiations would be two teams of officials negotiating for many hours (or even days) around a large conference table.

I completely disagree.

There are different types of negotiations. You're describing detailed technical negotiations.

Big picture negotiations, whether business or politics, often take place between the principals face to face. They agree the big moves in principle then toss it back to the teams to make the detail work.

Same all over the world in my business experience.

Today was big picture negotiation the details of which will be worked out ASAP.

threeball

I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson brought a deal back at this stage as he knows it will be shot down in the HOC. Corbyn won't back it, Johnson will look good for trying to get the UK out, he won't have to ask for an extension and he'll win the election hands down.

Stacksofwacks

Varadkar would only be this pleased if Boris agreed to move on the backstop, where checks would be moved to the Irish sea. However he should demand an extension anyway so there is time to get this through the UK parliament and eliminate the possibility of no deal

Itssoeasy

fash wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Ouch - that is the sound of a number of pants in NI being pooped...

The safe cross code won't even help the DUP with the bus that may be coming.

liamtech

L1011 wrote: »

Nobody cares anymore. They became irrelevant the second Boris lost his majority.

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

ToBeFrank123

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Agreed. The DUP probably want a deal for some of their voters but with a veto. I don't think the ERG are bothered either way about a deal.

Johnson may need at least 50 votes from the other parties in the HoC if the ERG and DUP don't row in behind his deal. More if Tory remainers don't support it.

Surely Corbyn can't oppose a deal agreed on by Ireland, the UK and EU. It would be political suicide for Labour.

CarPark2

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

Junkyard Tom

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

The only surprise is that it's taken so long for the English press to focus in on the North as preventing Britain's journey to Xanadu.

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

He's essentially saying Johnson could genuinely be seeking a deal but it might also be a scam/ con job to get the Tory rebels off his back this weekend and to buy himself some more time.

Only Johnson / Cummings know what the real strategy is.

Either depending on which way the wind blows probably.

Beechwoodspark

Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

Imreoir2

cameramonkey wrote: »

For Ireland there was no advantage to the meeting today. It was a BJ side show to keep his own party off his back. BJ wanted it to look like he was making a deal or that things could progress, he was using Leo as a useful idiot. Leo obliged.

What does Ireland lose from this? Either Johnson moves his position or he dosen't. If he dosen't then we are no worse off than we were yeaterday, but at least the accusation of intransigence by our side looks all the more implausible.

Zubeneschamali

CarPark2 wrote: »

Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

He has to do something, or at least look as if he is doing something, so that when the election comes he can say he tried.

Sierra Oscar

Johnson needs an excuse to seek an extension. This gives him the opportunity to say to his supporters that an extension is needed as there is a real chance of a deal being clenched in the weeks ahead. Seeking an extension in any other circumstance would be a devastating humiliation. I would still be weary as to his endgame intentions.

Imreoir2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic, these two headlines appear in The Telegraph this evening:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

Senior Tories' report on scrapping backstop 'ignored' Northern Irish business concerns

Throwing NI under the bus could be the niceist thing the Tories have ever done for NI.

threeball

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

Agreed. The DUP probably want a deal for some of their voters but with a veto. I don't think the ERG are bothered either way about a deal.

Johnson may need at least 50 votes from the other parties in the HoC if the ERG and DUP don't row in behind his deal. More if Tory remainers don't support it.

Surely Corbyn can't oppose a deal agreed on by Ireland, the UK and EU. It would be political suicide for Labour.

Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

Imreoir2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I wonder if the ruse here is to get a deal that will obviously be unacceptable to parliament.
If I understand correctly, the Benn act only forces an extension if he fails to bring back a deal. If he brings back a deal that fails to pass parliament then they are out on 31st.
The risk here for the UK is that parliament is spooked into passing a deal worse than Mays.

I somehow doubt parliament will lack the opportunity to assert itself and pass a new law requiring an extension "right bloody now" in such a circumstance.

Strazdas

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

Ben Lowry of the Newsletter wonders on Prime Time if Johnson is going to shaft the DUP