Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

The high horse brigade

Leroy42 wrote: »

How can NI remain in EU but also access to UK standards and trade deals? I can't see how RoI doesn't, slowly, get treated differently within the EU. How much a RoI exporter prove that there goods didn't come from NI?

Surely that will need checks?

It's only until a United Ireland which is enviable

ancapailldorcha

Hang on. He still needs to get the deal through the House of Commons where it'll likely be rejected again. In that scenario, he must go to the EU for an extension. Why would Remain MP's support this? Corbyn certainly can't as it means he'll be enabling a Tory Brexit.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

The only people looking to save face are Boris and his merry band. Don't confuse this with the usual EU post-summit bland communiques. If the proposed solution is workable the EU will do a deal, if it isn't they will reject it.

Yes, you’re right - i was clumsy. I meant Boris, Dominic, ERG, Arlene and a few others; but not the EU which has behaved, to my (non-Irish) view, impeccably

is_that_so

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Hang on. He still needs to get the deal through the House of Commons where it'll likely be rejected again. In that scenario, he must go to the EU for an extension. Why would Remain MP's support this? Corbyn certainly can't as it means he'll be enabling a Tory Brexit.

The ship has largely sailed on Remain. An extension offers Remainers no comfort as it's too short. Probably best to see what the deal is, if it even happens before presuming to know what the HOC will do.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

The ship has largely sailed on Remain. An extension offers Remainers no comfort as it's too short. Probably best to see what the deal is, if it even happens before presuming to know what the HOC will do.

Not so


An extension offers them a time to get a rainbow coalition with one role. Referendum to the people.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

Not so


An extension offers them a time to get a rainbow coalition with one role. Referendum to the people.

I think that's pie in the sky, mostly because of the complete berk that is Corbyn, who has parked his posterior on a very large fence and ain't moving from it. TBH I'm not sure Britain could face another referendum!

ancapailldorcha

is_that_so wrote: »

The ship has largely sailed on Remain. An extension offers Remainers no comfort as it's too short. Probably best to see what the deal is, if it even happens before presuming to know what the HOC will do.

listermint wrote: »

Not so


An extension offers them a time to get a rainbow coalition with one role. Referendum to the people.

I agree with listermint. This has been the plan for some time now despite some insisting on playing the roles of sticks in mud, namely Jo Swinson.

As Seamus says, getting a deal through would suit Johnson immensely. However, Parliament and the country are so divided that the other side simply can't vote for it not least because it's inferior to the UK's current deal replete with exemptions and special allowances.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

I think that's pie in the sky, mostly because of the complete berk that is Corbyn, who has parked his posterior on a very large fence and ain't moving from it.

That's lovely, but that was the point of forcing the extension.




Doh

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

I'm not sure how often its been said on the thread already but the DUP stopped mattering weeks ago. They're just noise now.

edit: bah, left the reply box open for ages and someone has said it already

Their opinion matters with the ERG. If the DUP are on board, the ERG likely follow. Nigel Evans was on Radio 4 earlier today saying as much. If the ERG aren't on board, hard to see where Johnson has the parliamentary arithmetic to get a deal through.

As regards a potential breakthrough, I don't share the optimism. It does Johnson no harm to be seen to be doing all he can to get a deal, as part of a blame game narrative. That may be why the DUP are giving little away: they know it's all optics on Johnson's part.

Here's two smart Brexit commentators with a more sceptical take:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1182689531797082112

https://twitter.com/FabianZuleeg/status/1182668342118797313

Johnson's done a good job of convincing people that he wants a deal, without actually putting concrete concessions on the table that could be used against him if talks break down.

It would be amusing if the DUP are thrown under a bus but I can't see it happening prior to a general election, since they might be relied upon if another hung parliament is the outcome. On that note, the Nolan Show this morning is worth a listen with plenty of unionists panicking that they've been sold down the river:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0009584

bob b

If a "deal" is hammered out over the next few days will it be part of the queen's speach? That is of course amendable so maybe a referendum of May/Johnson bill would be a possibility?

beggars_bush

The ERG would jettison the DUP in an instant to get a Brexit deal done

Akabusi

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

That's lovely, but that was the point of forcing the extension.




Doh

The purpose of the extension is to make sure there wasn't a No-Deal and that there is time to look at something else, like an alternative deal.

is_that_so

Akabusi wrote: »

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

A deal will see him come out of it well. That anyone is willing to explore a proposal in detail is a conundrum for the HOC.

briany

Akabusi wrote: »

Doesn't matter if it doesn't get through the HOC now, Johnson is on a winner now, he can go to the country saying he has the deal agreed with the EU just give him his majority and he'll deliver it

That would assume that every Conservative returned would vote for the deal. This would be an extremely interesting parliamentary episode, and that takes some doing from the last 3 years. Most of the ERG remained opposed to May's deal even when leaders like Mogg flipped. It would no longer be the DUP that Johnson has to worry about, but the ERG headbangers, plus the opposition who I fear would vote down a deal, just on principle, even if it were the perfect one.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

That would assume that every Conservative returned would vote for the deal. This would be an extremely interesting parliamentary episode, and that takes some doing from the last 3 years. Most of the ERG remained opposed to May's deal even when leaders like Mogg flipped. It would no longer be the DUP that Johnson has to worry about, but the ERG headbangers, plus the opposition who I fear would vote down a deal, just on principle, even if it were the perfect one.

The danger with that is he'll be the reasonable one coming back with the deal and they'll be the problem.

Junkyard Tom

MPFGLB wrote: »

The DUP should grab this with both hands

The problem for Unionism is that it stitches the northern economy further into the rest of Ireland/EU. In the longer term if GB diverges from EU norms, and the north keeps aligned, then the north fully ejecting itself from EU arrangements becomes practically and politically implausible.

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

I'm not sure how often its been said on the thread already but the DUP stopped mattering weeks ago. They're just noise now.

Pure guesswork

Their support or non support still represents a 20 vote swing not counting the other voters they may influence

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Their opinion matters with the ERG. If the DUP are on board, the ERG likely follow.

The ERG are making that claim so they've someone to blame. They couldn't give a toss about them in reality.

L1011

Tea Shock wrote: »

Pure guesswork

Their support or non support still represents a 20 vote swing not counting the other voters they may influence

Its not guesswork

They are not required to support the Government as the Government can't get any votes passed anyway

They will not vote for any deal that is acceptable to the EU

They have become irrelevant.

Leroy42

Is this just both sides trying their best to look like they are trying their best?

Surely the EU have learned that no matter what they discuss with the PM it is almost certainly be to be voted down in the HoC.

You'll get people like IDS saying that the EU caved a they need a no deal to force them to completely give in.

And does anybody really believe that even if a deal does get through that the UK will stick to it an not start to agitate to break it?

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

The ERG are making that claim so they've someone to blame. They couldn't give a toss about them in reality.

I see no evidence of this. So far the bulk of them have been singing from the DUP's hymn sheet.

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

Its not guesswork

They are not required to support the Government as the Government can't get any votes passed anyway

They will not vote for any deal that is acceptable to the EU

They have become irrelevant.

By that logic, the government could never have got a deal passed and they were never relevant

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I see no evidence of this. So far the bulk of them have been singing from the DUP's hymn sheet.

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

Of course they're not going to say that in public.

Tea Shock wrote: »

By that logic, the government could never have got a deal passed and they were never relevant

Realistically there was no deal they could get passed - but they still needed them for normal votes on multiple occasions when they did constitute a majority.

Mr.Nice Guy

L1011 wrote: »

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

The reason that they share the same constitutional concern about the Union that the DUP do. Here's Steve Baker from a few days ago:

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1181521798715846657

Tea Shock

L1011 wrote: »

What reason on earth is there for them to care anything about the DUP? Its cold, hard arse covering alone.

Of course they're not going to say that in public.



Realistically there was no deal they could get passed - but they still needed them for normal votes on multiple occasions when they did constitute a majority.

I agree with your first part. Few if any Tory’s give a rats ass about the DUP and certainly not anyone in the ERG!

The DUP in their own heads have in the past believed (and possibly still believe) that Ireland were going to be thrown under the bus. They certainly would have backed that - or anything close to it!

Strazdas

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The problem for Unionism is that it stitches the northern economy further into the rest of Ireland/EU. In the longer term if GB diverges from EU norms, and the north keeps aligned, then the north fully ejecting itself from EU arrangements becomes practically and politically implausible.

Fair point, but it also illustrates the disastrous error the DUP made campaigning for Brexit. I don't think they thought through for even five minutes what the potential ramifications for the province might be if the UK left the EU. They might have thought that it might somehow consolidate the union and not realising it could have quite the opposite effect and put the union in great danger.

L1011

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The reason that they share the same constitutional concern about the Union that the DUP do. Here's Steve Baker from a few days ago:

Their actual viewpoint is going to be a hell of a lot closer to the Telegraph leader than that. You may find one or two with personal opinions but its not ERG-wide.

The DUP are useful idiots for them. That's it.

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

Fair point, but it also illustrates the disastrous error the DUP made campaigning for Brexit. I don't think they thought through for even five minutes what the potential ramifications for the province might be if the UK left the EU. They might have thought that it might somehow consolidate the union and not realising it could have quite the opposite effect and put the union in great danger.

They never thought they'd win. They just did it to be more British or something.

An Ciarraioch

Copying pictures from the Daily Mail so you don't have to:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/10/11/17/19597832-7563433-image-a-34_1570810305546.jpg