Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1183033512145969152

Johnson needs to dump the DUP. Simple as.

Dump the DUP and no way this deal gets passed in the HoC, so then the Benn Act is triggered and an extension must be requested, Bojo's tomfoolery and legal loopholes aside.

briany

Inquitus wrote: »

I don't think the EU has that option, once they have left, things get much much more legally complex for them rejoin, so that would be the death of remain.

Remain would cease to exist at 11PM 31/10, if Brexit actually happened. It would then be Leavers vs Rejoiners. The biggest mistake you could just about make is to assume that Remainers would support Rejoin, because Rejoining is potentially a whole other conversation involving potential adoption of the Euro and Schengen.

Inquitus

briany wrote: »

Remain would cease to exist at 11PM 31/10, if Brexit actually happened. It would then be Leavers vs Rejoiners. The biggest mistake you could just about make is to assume that Remainers would support Rejoin, because Rejoining is potentially a whole other conversation involving potential adoption of the Euro and Schengen.

That's exactly my point, makes no sense for the EU or the HoC to do what the other poster suggested and let them leave on the 31st.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

From reading Tony Conneeelly, my take was that the proposal came from the Irish side and Coveney went to Barnier first to run it past him, before contact with the UK.
I would presume the Irish Civil Service and strategists would have, game played all the scenarios suggested over the past 3 years. They went back to that folder, pulled out an old one from TM and suggested applying it to NI only.
Psst, don't tell the DUP.

But Tony also says Barnier and the EU are totally unclear how sincere Johnson is. Is this an actual plan he likes or is he feeding them nonsense just to buy himself more time?

Water John

The odds on the proposed deal getting through the HOC are reasonably long, the ERG are copping it might be their best chance, but Johnson can always go into an election with Brexit in his pocket, here's my deal, we're leaving the EU. A crash out Brexit appeals really to a small group.

beggars_bush

Strazdas wrote: »

But Tony also says Barnier and the EU are totally unclear how sincere Johnson is. Is this an actual plan he likes or is he feeding them nonsense just to buy himself more time?

My bet is trying to buy more time and turn the tables on opposition MPs

J Mysterio

Inquitus wrote: »

Dump the DUP and no way this deal gets passed in the HoC, so then the Benn Act is triggered and an extension must be requested, Bojo's tomfoolery and legal loopholes aside.

That is Johnson's tomfoolery - he wants the extension and a GE. The DUP will be dumped then.

A Shropshire Lad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think Brexit was a chance for them to make a show of their commitment to the Union. Maybe they expected defeat in which case it would have made for a nice gesture. Now, they've managed to place themselves squarely at the forefront of the British political arena only to show that they're the party most divorced from the traditional British values of fair play, tolerance and respect.
.

What utter nonsense. Something 'Tradtitionally British' would be colonialism, which is the opposite of 'fair play, tolerance and respect'. Its one cultures subjugation of another, usually by some form of genocide and the obliteration of the invaded peoples culture, including langauge.



The DUP are a prime example of something 'Traditionally British' in my opinion.

Inquitus

J Mysterio wrote: »

That is Johnson's tomfoolery - he wants the extension and a GE. The DUP will be dumped then.

Surely he's worried about a temporary Gov of National Unity taking over for just long enough to arrange a 2nd referendum? That's one of the more likely next steps, and doesn't play to Boris's hand, he'd then have to fight an election having allowed a 2nd Ref and potentially get destroyed by the Brexit party? His best out at the moment seems to be getting a deal through before the 31st.....

Kermit.de.frog

He won't get a deal with the DUP.

He needs to get other support. ERG won't back DUP when push comes to shove.

All they care about is a great GB Brexit and sunny uplands.

CelticRambler

Inquitus wrote: »

That's exactly my point, makes no sense for the EU or the HoC to do what the other poster suggested and let them leave on the 31st.

You misunderstood my suggestion (actually a response to schmittel's suggestion): it makes no difference to the EU if they grant an extension to Johnson because he needs it for the technical implementation of an agreed WA or because he was told to by the Rebel Alliance so they'd have enough time to kick him out and scrap the Tory red lines.

One way or another, in order to comply with UK law, Johnson has to ask for an extension, so there's no way he can coerce the EU into saying publicly that they won't in exchange for some wishy-washy pretence at negotiation.

Spanish Eyes

I think the game is up now.

Billions have been spent on Brexit preps in UK. Ask yourselves who benefited from that?

The money has been made now, so compromise is a little easier at this point. Well that is just my view.

lawred2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think the game is up now.

Billions have been spent on Brexit preps in UK. Ask yourselves who benefited from that?

The money has been made now, so compromise is a little easier at this point. Well that is just my view.

Yeah - Brexit has been a handy SPV to milk the gullible taxpayer...

and the mad thing is - such egregious pilfering was done in plain sight and to the sounds of cheering masses

reslfj

Panrich wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

And the UK (and everyone else) can slash their corporation tax any time they want. Nothing to do with EU membership.

We’ll see. I think it becomes a lot more likely in a post EU scenario. They’ll be looking at all their options to entice foreign business.

The much larger EU27 - 6-7 times larger - will not take it nicely, if the UK is not keeping strictly to 'Level Playing Field' policies in e.g. taxes, working conditions, environment and in human rights in general.

The UK will remain very economically and politically weak following a Brexit deal and be even worse off after a 'No Deal'. Don't for a minute think the EU27 citizens or their politicians will feel sorry for the English or be willing to give the UK any 'sweet deals'.

It is pay in full for every benefit and every concession the UK gets - and likely pay say +10% extra for being small and stupid.

The EU has currently problems with tax arbitrage between member states e.g. profit from Germany or Sweden being taxed in Ireland or Luxembourg, or personal global income being taxed in e.g. Monaco, IoM or Jersey.
Such problems will be solved during the next decade, starting with the accounting basis for corporate taxation and minimum corporate tax rates.
Moving fully into the digital age, will be another very necessary reason to redesign taxes in the EU and likely in the US and Globally too.

Many tax heavens are or has been under UK control. These will post Brexit no longer be under 'UK protection' in the EU. The EU27 might well start with closing all tax loopholes related to 'Crown Dependencies', 'Caribbean UK' and Gibraltar.

The core here is that the UK is not, but the EU27 is big enough to match the largest companies and even the largest countries in this world

Lars

An Ciarraioch

DUP not exactly leaving any wriggle room after the Dodds interview:

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1183078034829697027

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

DUP not exactly leaving any wriggle room after the Dodds interview:

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1183078034829697027

Normal service is resumed after brief outbreak of sanity. They must think they still have some kind of influence in the HoC.

Inquitus

The numbers for a BoJo deal just don't seem to be there, he is arguably in a worse position than May was trying to get her deal through the Commons. If, and its a big if, he does agree a deal with the EU next week it seems it will be absolutely dead on arrival in the Commons.

Strazdas

Inquitus wrote: »

The numbers for a BoJo deal just don't seem to be there, he is arguably in a worse position than May was trying to get her deal through the Commons. If, and its a big if, he does agree a deal with the EU next week it seems it will be absolutely dead on arrival in the Commons.

Interesting to see what the UK Sunday papers say later, if they have any leaked info or updates.

Sierra Oscar

Inquitus wrote: »

The numbers for a BoJo deal just don't seem to be there, he is arguably in a worse position than May was trying to get her deal through the Commons. If, and its a big if, he does agree a deal with the EU next week it seems it will be absolutely dead on arrival in the Commons.

It still gives Boris cover to seek an extension and call an election. That could be his endgame.

He needs an excuse to seek an extension without being humiliated, 'we are on the cusp of clenching a deal' and all that.

If the Commons does shoot down his deal it also gives him cover to say he tried his best when it comes to the blame game of a no deal Brexit.

Inquitus

The thing is Labour know a GE at the moment is not good for them, and the Tories can't call a GE by themselves.

Apparently, his inner circle are worried there may be the numbers for a Gov of National Unity whose single act would be to schedule a 2nd Referendum to take place before a General Election. That would leave all his plans in tatters, and energise the Brexit party to cannibalise the Tory vote when an election does take place. If I were Lab or the Lib Dems that is the path I would pursue in the short term to turn the election maths on its head.

Mr.Nice Guy

If Johnson's not got the DUP on side he's unlikely to have enough ERG members on side, and it's hard to see him even attempting to get a deal through before an election. He wouldn't want to allow Farage and co. to label him a sell-out like May, and his cabinet was formed to challenge the Brexit Party for votes. Stand by for talks to break down.

RobMc59

Cut out the petty nonsense please.

Jizique

Enzokk wrote: »

No, Sinn Fein is opposed to Brexit so allowing it to happen will be a monumental act of self harm. They will lose not just votes in NI but in Ireland as well if they allow a Brexit deal to go through with their votes for it. Brexit has cost the jobs of UK PMs before and will most likely do the same for Johnson, anyone else would do well to stay as far away from it as they possibly can.

What’s JRM saying in the telegraph?

Leroy42

Jizique wrote: »

What’s JRM saying in the telegraph?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Boris Johnson won't concede too much to EU

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/jacob-rees-mogg-boris-johnson-wont-concede-much-eu/

That is the headline! The ERG starts to eat itself.

Inquitus

Mr Rees-Mogg states: "If he thinks the ship of state is worth an extra ha’porth of tar he deserves support."

Amusing the way JRM frames it!

ancapailldorcha

No more SF absentionism talk here please as previous form suggests that it will only derail the thread. Posts have been deleted.

Torsevt

What's happening at the moment

Is Boris getting an outline of a deal he hopes to present to to the electorate

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/jacob-rees-mogg-boris-johnson-wont-concede-much-eu/

That is the headline! The ERG starts to eat itself.

Reading the comments underneath (and another similar article) and Telegraph readers are deeply suspicious of Johnson and Rees-Mogg.

Inquitus

Bombs in Limerick if necessary says the UDA sigh

Good loser

Sometimes I think the 2016 Vote was like a vote for capital punishment!


A second ref would be for which kind or a reversal.